thursday update

SHORT TERM: turbo Thursday, DOW +99

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.3%. Europe opened lower but gained 0.4%. US index futures were lower overnight, then ramped up after the ECB announced their planned changes in European monetary policy. At 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported higher: 312k v 300k. The market opened three points above yesterday’s SPX 1928 close and then began to pullback. Just past 10am the SPX hit 1923, and then suddenly reversed. The reversal was swift, as the SPX cleared the 1929 pivot and hit 1942 by 2:30. Then a dip into the close ended the day at SPX 1940.

For the day the SPX/DOW were 0.60%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.95%. Bonds gainedย 7 ticks, Crude slippedย 10 cents, Gold rallied $9, and the USD was lower. Medium term support rises to the 1929 and 1901 pivots, with resistance at the 1956 and 1973 pivots. Tomorrow: monthly Payrolls (est. +228k) at 8:30, then Consumer credit at 3pm. Early tomorrow there is a speech by FED governor Powell in London.

Futures ramped up before the open today after the ECB’s Draghi comments. Prior to the open futures started to selloff, and even turned negative after trading began. Just past 10am, however, they ramped right back up again carrying the market to all time new highs. This morning’s pullback (1931-1923), we estimate to be too small and too quick to be Minute wave iv. So it still looks like five waves up from Minute ii at SPX 1862: 1886-1868-1925-1916-1942. After Minute iii concludes the market should pullback 10-20 points for Minute wave iv. Then higher highs after that. The NAZ is still about 1.6% below its bull market high. So the OEW 1956 pivot is certainly within reach.

Short term support is now the 1929 and 1901 pivots, with resistance at the 1956 and 1973 pivots. Short term momentum hit extremely overbought today, were it ended the day. The short term OEW charts flip-flopped early then turned positive, with the reversal level now at SPX 1933. Best to your trading NFP day!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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108 Responses to thursday update

  1. This one is for Lunker et al (those who like numbers, puzzles and fibs).

    OEW is still awaiting minute iv, v, minor 3,4 and intermediate iv and v to finish major 5 of Primary III. Now let us simple assume that each of these waves will either retrace (the 4th waves) and extend (the 5th waves) as much as their counter parts (1st and 2nd waves) of the same wave degree.

    SPX hit almost 1950 today. Let’s assume that’s minute iii, that would then mean (rounded to nearest whole number):

    minute iv :-30 points (1920, OEW 1929 pivot, retracing entire micro 5)
    minute v : +40 points (1960, OEW 1959 pivot)
    minor 4 : -30 points (1930, OEW 1929 pivot, retracing minute v)
    minor 5 : 70 points (2000, OEW ??? pivot)
    intermediate iv : -80 points (1920, OEW 1929 pivot; retracing entire minor 5)
    intermediate v : +150 points (2070, OEW ??? pivot)

    Right at Tony’s upper 1970-2070 range, and right in my preferred target area of 2045-2200.
    Money in the bank, right on target!!


    ps: Primary IV should ideally retrace most of Major 5: down to 1700s (~15% correction!)

  2. lunker1 says:

    Wow this place is getting weird lately. Kind of like the pre-apocalypse in Ghostbusters

    • H D says:

      Weird lately? Try all year.
      Like ur numbers L1, one more set for you 1814-1902, 1862-1950

    • Lee X says:

      Haha its the interweb , anything goes I guess but…if u guys are going to change ur names u have to change ur writing style lazy , kids these days ๐Ÿ˜‰

      Hey L1 Gracias for ur ###sss
      Hola H D
      Equality for all !

  3. C’mon, Kevin and newbs. Being bearish the last two months has been irrational, but now at least you can make a case (prematurely to be sure, but a case nevertheless). Since you feel compelled to proselytize your bearishness while disparaging dissenters, this is the best opportunity in months. Buy low, sell high?

    • If you knew what I know you would be short as well, USA is hanging on a string. Don’t believe the media, everything you are being fed is manipulated nonsense to distract you from what is coming. The US market is going to crash worst than the great depression, martial law may be in effect, the US dollar IS going to lose reserve currency status. You guys think I”m crazy or looney, well think again, the Ponzi scheme put in place by the central banks is there to do nothing but destroy the country. The fed and wallstreet collusion makes Bernie Madoff look like a rookie

      • tony caldaro says:

        thank you for your unbiased opinion

      • Tony, lol, I love you I really do. Opinions are opinions and onions are onions. Everybody opinion is biased really when you think about it, your life you knowledge your interactions with others builds a biased opinion. Many are bullish due to biased news media. I could give a crap about the market, its where I gamble my extra money. I don’t rely on this market to pay my bills or for my 401k. I have a pension regardless of spx 5,000 or spx 100. ๐Ÿ˜‰

  4. ariez5 says:

    A couple of people have blasted ukarlewitz. You guys need to take a cold shower.
    1. Ukarlewitz provides a free service like Tony.
    2. Ukarlewitz has been skeptical of the S&P, but he does NOT give trading advice. He tries to describe the factors he feels the most important in the market over various time frames.
    3. I, for one, have gotten short-term profitable insights from him.
    4. Today he tweeted a hat-tip to Tony. He gives credit where it’s due.

    So find something else to do with your time and Tony’s blog space. Like focussing on your own trading.

    • Amen! Ukarlewitz provides statistical data that is fantastic. If you don’t like his or Tony’s generousity, then don’t read it. Thanks to both of them.

  5. Now, that my thinking gone bust, I can share what I was targeting.

    Start 01 April 2014 as 01 June 2007 (diff of 81 months, in multiple of nine).

    Five bounces from 50DMA and fifth bounce taking ATH (at that time in 2007 as well. In 2007, real top of 1576 came lot later) and then sudden fall breaking 200DMA. Everything copy paste (time wise as well) till fifth bounce and ATH of 1902. BUT after that things went opposite.

    I guess Draghi’s plan was well known (since players know what is in store, they also know Draghi’s plan of negative interest rate will also fail and that’s why EURO is not falling). I have not come across anyone who has understood macroeconomic variables that are causing a problem and why capitalism is in danger. Some in FOMC members may have an idea but they may not want to say this publicly.If they say then they will be called TRAITORS. That is it for the day.

    Someone on this board who comes occasionally did mention scary similarities (which probably he/she noticed).

    • lunker1 says:

      Fractals are cool but I don’t think I’ve ever seen a long term fractal work.

      • Because it failed, there will be million reasons why it failed. I mentioned only 60% contributory factor.

        Everything was in place.

        These was also huge SHORT position built around 1904, which was common knowledge Despite this common knowledge, market kept grinding higher. But, I thought it will work to my advantage. I did not realise that it is gringing higher due to Draghi. He is GS product.

        Nothing succeeds like success and nothing fails like failure.

        Better luck next time, will hammer at appropriate time

      • torehund says:

        Normally fractals dont work agree, and I usually look for contracting fractals (lesser and lesser repetitions of magnitude). However this abc fractal is doing the opposite, expanding With the magnitude of 2 x.

      • tony caldaro says:

        The main objective is to last to trade for another day.
        Much better luck next time.

  6. MenachemM. Uzan is Cliff Uzan

  7. I know this may be too soon to call a top, but I’ll take a chance. its good enough for me. We are way over done to the upside. Great time time exit. Risk/reward lousy.

  8. mharrison60 says:

    After ECB action, US NFP and Japan noises about increasing equity share of national pension fund I cannot see what new optimism will be found to levitate markets – except optimism for optimism lol.

    OEW is playing out as per Tony’s plan but this feels like a blow off top now. Looking forward to weekend update for latest count as cannot believe we extend materially.

  9. torehund says:

    Something scary too cool Down n.

  10. lunker1 says:

    NAZ .887 from ATH is 4324. reversal here?

    • tony caldaro says:

      nice work Lunker
      you always come up with interesting observations

      • lunker1 says:

        Thx Tony. I’ve always liked number and pattern puzzles. ๐Ÿ™‚

      • lunker1 says:

        IWM backtesting old channel.
        top line drawn July 13 to March 14 highs
        bottom parallel line drawn from Feb low. backtesting today.
        sounds crazy but maybe next target is parallel drawn from May low?

      • lunker1 says:

        Ghostine’s Deep Crab target met

    • lunker1 says:

      Micro 4 = 1918.5
      Nano 1 = 1931 = 12.5
      Nano 2 = 1923
      N3 = 1941 or 42
      N4 = 1938 or 39
      N5 = 1 = 1951 = micro 5 =minute 3
      N5 = 3 = 1959 = micro 5 = minute 3

      1949 could be close enough for 5 =1

      • Sam East says:

        Thought I knew crabs after catching plenty of Dungeness, rowing in a racing shell, and diagnosing Phthyris pubis during several Emergency Room stints as an MD, but this is truly a beautiful thing. What are the implications if it is indeed, complete?

      • lunker1 says:

        Ghostine’s targets are similar to other traders targets meaning observe what happens at the target and decide on next course of action. It was a shorter-term target But it was the higher of the two he was tracking so it seems due for a pullback. He’s still bullish longer-term with higher targets.

    • lunker1 says:

      recalc 4323.3

  11. fionamargaret says:
    • fionamargaret says:
      June 6, 2014 at 11:10 am

      As the Father of Modern Psychiatry, I diagnose that ukarlewitz is afflicted with severe unresolved maternal deprivation issues producing a lack of conscience. This guy has been bearish for the last 100 SPX points, yet where is his manifestation of guilt? More importantly, where is his stop? There is a sociopathic quality to giving people money-losing analysis without ever expressing remorse, especially when those losses are apparently open-ended.

      The good news is that eventually SPX will fall below 1814 and he can claim to have been right. The bad news is that his acolytes are now residing in the financial equivalent of the Black Hole Of Calcutta.

      On a less acerbic note, Kimble does excellent work. Danke schรถn, fionamargaret.

  12. I don’t think there is anybody who thinks this market can go red today.

    • hrmny358 says:

      Green 12 of the last 15 days. I don’t think there has been an 11 point retrace in the last 75 points. Overbought and divergent has worked itself off sideways. Pivots have been nice resting points. Playing the odds has not worked. It is amazing IMO

  13. lunker1 says:

    1949 bottom end of 1956 pivot 60 minute and daily RSI five are very hot but the weekly has room to run for this 3. 1929 pivot to hold minute 4?

  14. blackjak100 says:

    If VIX takes out $11.05, this is a major development IMO.

    • rc1269 says:

      how would you interpret/trade that development?

      • blackjak100 says:

        I wouldn’t trade it nor do I have any interpretation other than it could indicate there’s a lot more room to run higher as the VIX typically bottoms well before bull market top

      • JK1987 says:

        VIX 11.05 was the bottom in March 2013, the lowest since 2007.
        SPX up another 120 points for two more month from the VIX 11.05 bottom.

  15. pooch77 says:

    RSI at 80 on 1 hour rut chart …stretched??

  16. llerias7 says:

    Hi, Tony.

    Is it possible to determine OEW pivots for the major 1 of III in $ATG / Grek?

  17. SPX 1947 Fibonacci objective achieved. Out all stock positions purchased 4/16. NOT going short.
    Interest rates have retested the major breakdown points of their monthly topping patterns and bonds are giving a preliminary histogram buy signal.

  18. rc1269 says:

    well, we got our 1944 D-Day anniversary print. time for me to lock some of this in and call it a week. good calls lately Tony. it’s not easy to predict relentless


  19. As I wrote on Wednesday’s blog, the R2K needed to break above it’s 50-day MA. The 200-day MA and the 50-day MA were almost creating a symmetrical triangle in the apex of which the R2K was squeezed. The R2K ($RUT) punched decisively through the upper bound of this “triangle” (the 50-day MA) as well as through the downtrend line that Jedi showed us. Here is a chart of Thursday’s action:$RUT

    Here is a chart of the R2K RS to the $SPX for Thurs. It made a nice upthrust out of it’s base but still has a lot of resistance points to get through, including it’s own 50-day MA.

  20. jeffbalin says:

    Well minute 2 was about 2 weeks, minute 4 probably won’t be quick either….. could be a nice zig zag…..?

    I believe the 3 main indices are in sync. They are all in 3rd waves at different levels but expecting them to move in sync

    The SPX is in int 3, with Int 4 and Int 5 to go and then Primary 4
    The NAZ is in Maj 3, with Maj 4 and Maj 5 to go and then Primary 4
    The DOW is in Int C, with Int D and Int E to go and then Primary 4

    I do not think that Tony’s posted DOW count is an alternate count. I think that count IS the correct count…. for the DOW. Seems to be running up and down in 3’s, a diagonal triangle. Not seeing that in the the other 2.

  21. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    To Da~Moon? Nah! But SPX 2000 is very possible.

  22. Thanks, Tony. ๐Ÿ™‚ $COMPQ testing upper trend line, but MACD is decidedly hooking up positive.$COMPQ&p=60&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p31684324037&a=347539933&listNum=7

    • Good evening, Jedi – any updated thoughts on HIMX? Found support at the $6.14 level you noted last month, am now long. Also,do you still like BAC as a short at $16? TIA

      • FRB, No reason for you to consider this stock until it makes higher-highs and higher-lows. It needs to get above 8.04 and out of its downtrend. Use the chart below as your guide. I marked it up for you. No reason to play it long until that happens.
        Although BAC is a potential short at 16..0, no guarantee, of course. You must watch what price does when it gets there. Don’t jump too fast. Market makers know everyone is watching that resistance area. You would wait for the stock to produce lower-highs and lower-lows before risking a short. I also watch moving averages and MACD for guidance. I burn myself only when I attempt to get ahead of the market — patience. Good luck.

  23. pcskier says:

    Rip fest today, $rut closed a hair under its 5 MA monthly, if it closes below its 20 weekly average by Monday or tomorrow down $rut goes and everything else,if not $rut will re test it’s all time high. long yen, take a look at fxy weekly BB band squeeze, if fxy pops up risk off in epic way. The euro and $tnx, move today was contra intuitive for me with us equities action. I guess $tnx hit the 200 ma on the 2 hour charts, bounce and the euro bounce of the 50 weekly or leverage speculation community is demanding future QE from the ECB. Pay up or we will send you currency to the moon and create more deflation.

  24. ariez5 says:

    Do you think today’s move looked a lot like August 1, 2013? That was a liquidity-fueled approach to a short-term top.

  25. blackjak100 says:

    Divergence or no divergence, it’s not required for a decline. Just ask Sept 2013 when MACD (using Tony’s parameters) last reached this level with no divergence. However using a more conventional MACD (13,21,8), there is a clear divergence from Oct 2013 to now. I plotted it on Scottrade so I can’t post, but any member of can post it.

    • blackjak
      Your analysis is usually similar to Lara from (subscription required and recommended). She has been saying the ED can go as high as 1973.72 before being discarded.

      • blackjak100 says:

        Yes, both her and nate have similar analysis. However, I was the one who pointed out the ED a few months back to Lara before she even had it as a count. She then made it a 2nd alternate a few days later. A few weeks later it was her main count.

        So is my analysis similar to hers or is her analysis similar to mine? You decide!

      • blackjak
        Wasnt meant to imply anything. Was just pointing out 1973.72 as many here seem to have given up on ED.
        Her detailed analysis is good for someone trying to learn like me.
        Anyway its good that you are both seeing it as the main count right now.
        Gold is also heading lower as you both predicted.

  26. mjtplayer says:

    Thanks Tony!

    You have been right all along in your wave count, it certainly looks like the ED count is now toast and we move higher to complete int III, then another down-up to FINALLY complete P3. Looks like this could drag on for a while, perhaps July or even Aug before we top-out? Then a P4 into the fall (Oct?) before P5 into 2015.

  27. bouraq says:

    Never ever declining market:
    $spx $djia $rut $ftse $dax $oil $copper $gold $audusd

  28. ocaj2000 says:


    • …doomsday comma communique received…high command accepts and authorizes…proceed against Earthers according to specified plan of annihilation…remember not to harm kate upton…

  29. torehund says:

    RUT/IWM: From prim wave 2 bottom in oct 2011, on weekly macd I see two large Waves unfolding. The last one did a top in December on Macd (black band) and has done an ABC Down. If this is the Count then major 3 of primary 3 should soon commence. This Count is highly speculative(hyperbullish), but if its right then the rally should be massive and quick.
    In worst case we just have to wait for the D- wave up following the ABC Down on the macd similar to the the SPX. Both indexes have longterm indexes above zero and thats where the gains are to be made.

  30. Everybody has their Euphoria HATS on, good now its time for ED. Look at the divergence on NAYD ,NYSI and NYMO.

  31. pooch77 says:

    Hope to see Rad and Jedis take on the rut

    • jparkins10 says:

      Ghostine has a target of 1170.
      I see 1161, 1170 & 1180 as potential topping areas, 1170-80 sets up a H&S

      • radrian6 says:

        Hello Pooch and J,
        The resistance area at RUT 1158-63 is one that I have mentioned a few times — with the recent ECB-based catalyst, it should now be magnetic. However, if RUT gaps into that area, it will likely be an exhaustion gap and we will see some quick selling. The next resistance area is 1195 although there is still the possibility of an H&S top with the ideal right shoulder near 1182.

        Regardless of how it gets there, RUT is likely to pull back from 1158-63 and the nature of that pullback will set the tone for the ride into June OpEx.

        Bottom line for the RUT … the path of least resistance is higher but it may be a slow path with increasing vulnerability as RUT moves toward 1180-1195.

      • Thanks for the technical update, Radrian.

    • Just saw your post. The Russell IMHO spoke very loudly when it broke through its downtrend. See chart below for next resistance. It’s bullish — 1. above 50MA, 2. slammed through resistance, 3. out of downtrend and 4. MACD solidly up. I put money on it (IWM) the day before yesterday. My stops are usually set a few pennies below the low of the previous day’s candle.$RUT&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=0&id=p28826230532&a=353435598&listNum=7

  32. mharrison60 says:

    Thanks Tony.

    Interesting that the FTSE did not join in today’s ECB led excess, indeed it has been weak last days.f it topped at 6895.

  33. attitude928 says:

    Thanks Tony for all market insights via EW. More up for the $RUT tomorrow.

  34. torehund says:

    Thanks Tony.
    The hook on NAZ-wekly looks small eyed and steep, Nice.
    Bulkers held nicely afteer mostly up yesterday, lots in the Charts Points to a recovery.
    As I pointed out previously, looking on macd, SP 500 has corrected in an ABC for more than a year already, so something substantial has been in the Cards. However long patterns are inherently difficult, due to long timespans. What they lack timeingwise is compensated by much higher reliability.

  35. JK1987 says:

    Tony Thanks
    TL cleared.;

    Rally won’t be done until NAZ new high, 1.6%.

  36. RDC says:

    Thanks Tony.

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