SHORT TERM: turbo Thursday, DOW +99
Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.3%. Europe opened lower but gained 0.4%. US index futures were lower overnight, then ramped up after the ECB announced their planned changes in European monetary policy. At 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported higher: 312k v 300k. The market opened three points above yesterday’s SPX 1928 close and then began to pullback. Just past 10am the SPX hit 1923, and then suddenly reversed. The reversal was swift, as the SPX cleared the 1929 pivot and hit 1942 by 2:30. Then a dip into the close ended the day at SPX 1940.
For the day the SPX/DOW were 0.60%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.95%. Bonds gained 7 ticks, Crude slipped 10 cents, Gold rallied $9, and the USD was lower. Medium term support rises to the 1929 and 1901 pivots, with resistance at the 1956 and 1973 pivots. Tomorrow: monthly Payrolls (est. +228k) at 8:30, then Consumer credit at 3pm. Early tomorrow there is a speech by FED governor Powell in London.
Futures ramped up before the open today after the ECB’s Draghi comments. Prior to the open futures started to selloff, and even turned negative after trading began. Just past 10am, however, they ramped right back up again carrying the market to all time new highs. This morning’s pullback (1931-1923), we estimate to be too small and too quick to be Minute wave iv. So it still looks like five waves up from Minute ii at SPX 1862: 1886-1868-1925-1916-1942. After Minute iii concludes the market should pullback 10-20 points for Minute wave iv. Then higher highs after that. The NAZ is still about 1.6% below its bull market high. So the OEW 1956 pivot is certainly within reach.
Short term support is now the 1929 and 1901 pivots, with resistance at the 1956 and 1973 pivots. Short term momentum hit extremely overbought today, were it ended the day. The short term OEW charts flip-flopped early then turned positive, with the reversal level now at SPX 1933. Best to your trading NFP day!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bull market