wednesday update

SHORT TERM: market makes new highs, DOW +15

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.2%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.1%. US index futures were lower overnight. At 8:15 the ADP index was reported lower: 179k v 220k, and at the Trade deficit was reported larger: -$47.2bn v -$40.4bn. The market opened four points below yesterday’s SPX 1924 close, dipped to 1919, and then started to rise. At 10am ISM services was reported higher: 56.3 v 55.2. The market continued to rise and it broke through the previous all time high of SPX 1926 around 11:30. At 2pm the Beige book: The market then dipped from SPX 1929 to 1926 by 3pm. Heading into the close the SPX hit 1928 and closed there.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.15%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.40%. Bonds lost 4 ticks, Crude dipped 20 cents, Gold slipped $3 and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1901 and 1869 pivots, with resistance at the 1929 and 1956 pivots. Tomorrow: the ECB before the open then weekly Jobless claims at 8:30.

The market opened lower for the second day in a row, but could not generate any additional selling. After retesting SPX 1919 for the third time in the past two days the market started to rally. Around SPX 1923 it appeared that the past two days had formed a Micro wave 4 triangle (1916-1926-1919-1925-1919), and we posted four micro wave labels on the hourly chart. This suggested Minute wave iii was not done yet, and the market was heading higher. The market then rallied to the OEW 1929 pivot, hitting resistance and that overhead trend line again. It would appear the market may need a gap up opening to clear this type of resistance. Tomorrow should be interesting.

Short term support remains at the 1901 pivot and SPX 1891, with resistance at the 1929 and 1956 pivots. Short term momentum appears to be building another negative divergence at the new highs. The short term OEW charts flip-flopped again today, typical triangle action, ending positive with the reversal level now SPX 1925. Best to your trading ECB day.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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179 Responses to wednesday update

  1. Positions stopped out at; 1829.5, 1831, 1833, 1833.4 and 1835.6.

    I may RESHORT at 1844.6 for cover at 1904 and stoploss at 1864

  2. oneandonlyuniverse says:

    A lot of comments today = Vol is cheap
    If the posters had the predominant comment tone(negative) like last Sept/Oct
    it would not be this easy.
    Vix $11.61 = no brainer
    Thanks guys.

  3. Jedi, when you get home from work this evening could you please comment on what you see now on your HIMX chart? Came down to the support level of $6.14 which you noted last month and has already (and quickly/decisively) bounced 15% off its low, am currently long. TIA

  4. rc1269 says:

    i’m going to call the wave top at spx 1944, on the D-Day 70th anniversary
    seems like the something the mkt would do

    • I agree, rc, would be just like the market to do that. Like when it made its then-ATH 5 years TO THE DAY of the low (Oct 9, 2002>2007). At the time, few thought it would actually happen like that.

  5. cicelyalaska says:

    Wonder if we start June 6th at 1944.

  6. RDC says:

    Next SPX resistance 2000? it might be, it could be.

    • lunker1 says:

      count update
      Nano 3 might have ended 1941
      N4 did a perfect .236 of N3 to 1938
      N5 = 1 = 1951= micro 5 = minute 3
      N5 = 3 = 1958 = micro 5 = minute 3

  7. blackjak100 says:

    Looks like 3 ended @ 1941 and 4 of v of C of V of ED underway. I’ve seen top calls on this board at 1947 and 1952. This fits perfectly leaning more towards 1947.

  8. Fiat money system, No one knows the actually price of anything.. Key with Fiat system, is honest management within Central bank and Government. With world central bankers, all on the same page, it would actually, take powerful negative shock to derail it. My guess would be major world war, which most likely won’t unfold any time soon.

    Tonys cycle projections, I feel on spot on.. Presidential cycle..

    Well, I just closed my General Electric position at $26.75 for nice profit.

    In and Out Burger is my next stop, lunch!

    Charity is really the only true investment, so, if your making $$$$ spread the $$$ around this summer, kids are out of school, lets support them.

    Good luck trading, most likely will go long on Friday again..

  9. lunker1 says:

    Micro 4 = 1918.5
    Nano 1 = 1931 = 12.5
    Nano 2 = 1923
    N3 = 1.62 x 1 = 1943
    N4 = .38/.24 x N3 = 1935/38
    N5 = 1 = 1948/51= micro 5 =minute 3
    N5 = 3 = 1955/58 = micro 5 = minute 3

  10. Torehund

    If you read this , I know you like shipping stocks , is FREE still your favourite even it has gone down lately?

    Or are there other shippers you like more ?

    Thank you !

    • torehund says:

      Cycle, trading in the nanos takes a lot of commitment and a lot of experience. And i dont advise any to dive into Stock like these. Tonys blog is concerned With indexes and sector Plays primarily, and discussions of particular Stocks is not of interest, if not intended to point to a sector going up and Down and/or bottoming/topping.
      Tonysboard isnt a chat Board for individual Stocks. We all have to respect that, and I already mailed you what shipping Stocks I own🙂
      I am also out of posts for today.

  11. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony & all commentaries on the OEW.
    SPY ~ Approaching TL Resistance & 161.8% ext. @ 195
    Observing this level for potential short term reversal.

  12. ocaj2000 says:

    Does anyone have a link where I can find the (accurate) P/E of the RUT ?

    Thanks in advance.

  13. SPX is rapidly approaching the major Fibonacci target of 1947.
    CNN Greed/Fear Index = 77 (Extreme Greed).
    During the rally off the April low, risk has been low and potential reward has been high.
    No longer.

    • rc1269 says:

      the CNN fear/greed index strikes again! yeeehaw

      Market Volatility: Neutral
      “The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is at 11.52. This is a neutral reading and indicates that market risks appear low.”

      11.52. neutral. has only been this low one other instance the last 7 years. i’d be interested to see how low it needs to go to read as “greed” or “extreme greed.”

  14. CygnetNoir says:

    CygnetNoir says:
    June 5, 2014 at 9:21 am
    NEWL is a POS eventually going all the way to zero … that is currently trading at $0.93 … it is trading below its opening range and bear flagging here on the intraday – if the promoters and MM’s don’t step in soon, this thing could be trading 30% lower before the close.

    UPDATE: It didn’t even take ’til the close to lose 30% from 93 cents/share down to 64 cents/share. I have no idea where it goes from here today (but it will go to $0.00 eventually). The next 1 for 50 split will take its float down to 58000 shares – this thing is “dead stock trading.”

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