SHORT TERM: market makes new highs, DOW +15
Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.2%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.1%. US index futures were lower overnight. At 8:15 the ADP index was reported lower: 179k v 220k, and at the Trade deficit was reported larger: -$47.2bn v -$40.4bn. The market opened four points below yesterday’s SPX 1924 close, dipped to 1919, and then started to rise. At 10am ISM services was reported higher: 56.3 v 55.2. The market continued to rise and it broke through the previous all time high of SPX 1926 around 11:30. At 2pm the Beige book: http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/beigebook/default.htm. The market then dipped from SPX 1929 to 1926 by 3pm. Heading into the close the SPX hit 1928 and closed there.
For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.15%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.40%. Bonds lost 4 ticks, Crude dipped 20 cents, Gold slipped $3 and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1901 and 1869 pivots, with resistance at the 1929 and 1956 pivots. Tomorrow: the ECB before the open then weekly Jobless claims at 8:30.
The market opened lower for the second day in a row, but could not generate any additional selling. After retesting SPX 1919 for the third time in the past two days the market started to rally. Around SPX 1923 it appeared that the past two days had formed a Micro wave 4 triangle (1916-1926-1919-1925-1919), and we posted four micro wave labels on the hourly chart. This suggested Minute wave iii was not done yet, and the market was heading higher. The market then rallied to the OEW 1929 pivot, hitting resistance and that overhead trend line again. It would appear the market may need a gap up opening to clear this type of resistance. Tomorrow should be interesting.
Short term support remains at the 1901 pivot and SPX 1891, with resistance at the 1929 and 1956 pivots. Short term momentum appears to be building another negative divergence at the new highs. The short term OEW charts flip-flopped again today, typical triangle action, ending positive with the reversal level now SPX 1925. Best to your trading ECB day.
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bull market