tuesday update

SHORT TERM: gap down then calm, DOW -21

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.8%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.4%. US index futures were lower overnight, and the market gapped down to SPX 1920 at the open. The SPX had closed at 1925 yesterday. In the opening minutes the market dipped to SPX 1919, then rallied to 1924 by 10am. At 10am Factory orders were reported positive: +0.7% v +1.1%, and Auto sales hit early-2007 levels. The market then pulled back to SPX 1919 again by 11:30, and then started to rally. At noon the FED released this: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20140603a.htm. At 2:30 the SPX hit 1925, then dipped to end the day at 1924.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.10%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.10%. Bonds lost 16 ticks, Crude added 35 cents, Gold rose $3, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1901 and 1869 pivots, with resistance at the 1929 and 1956 pivots. Tomorrow: the ADP index at 8:15, the Trade deficit at 8:30, ISM services at 10am, then the FED’s beige book at 2pm.

After an uninterrupted 70+ point rally, this market has had two days of choppiness with little downside pressure. Even the gap down opening today had little follow through. Tomorrow, the FED’s Beige book. We are still counting five waves up from the Minute ii low at SPX 1862: 1886-1868-1925-1916-1926. Waiting for a decline to 1917, or lower, to suggest Minute iii is done. Or, a rally above 1926 to suggest it is not. Either way, the overhead trend line and the 1929 pivot continue to act as resistance.

Short term support is at the 1901 pivot and SPX 1891, with resistance at the 1929 and 1956 pivots. Short term momentum traded above and below neutral today. The short term OEW charts flip-flopped again, ending positive, with the reversal level now at SPX 1923. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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108 Responses to tuesday update

  1. rc1269 says:

    so far, just as expected out of the ECB. we’ll see what mr. market thinks of that.
    and “futher measures to be announced” at their press conference.
    happy thursday.

  2. Gotta keep pushing to complete ED and then comes the 50 point spx gap and go.

  3. RDC says:

    All the good stuff ECB is going to do tomorrow is all factored in the market so no matter what they do the sell off is in order.

  4. JK1987 says:

    garbage in

    Fear & Greed Index is at 70 Greed level.
    Yesterday was at 44 Fear.

    Market Momentum: Extreme Greed
    Safe Haven Demand: Extreme Greed
    Put and Call Options: Greed
    Stock Price Strength: Greed

    garbage out

    • If this is an Ending Diagonal and you are long, you will feel it. Maybe ECB report will be the catalyst for major dump of indices.

      • Always expect the unexpected..Tomorrow will be Non event, IMO. In fact I am expeting EUR/USD to rise after initial dump.Few days later some small bad news will come and they will dump…SPX 1918 is crucial. Once it touches 1915, it will rebound to 1920..that will be the time to Short for SHORT TERM.

        When then pulled market from 667 to 1929, hangover will definitely remain

      • JK1987 says:

        You already gone wrong four times in a row.
        Your success rate downgrade to 20%, fail rate 80%.
        If this one of one more time your success rate will be 0%. scary, isn’t it?

      • JK1987,

        No, it resets. For example going wrong 4 times in a row will result in “going right 4 times in row” and “two wrong in a row” to make 60/40.

  5. JK1987 says:

    Tony Thanks for updating the labels.

    Minute iii at the TL with perfect oew 1929 pivot?
    oew pivots is a must read chapter.

    • H D says:

      hey joker, I’m reading your posts and taunts to others about success rates. Thought maybe you missed this in the link you share all the time “The Law of Use is universal, and he who violates it suffers by reason of his conflict with natural forces.”
      Don’t just read it, learn it.

      Tuff crowd, see ya’s next week.

  6. lunker1 says:

    maybe 5 up from 1919 to 1929 for nano 1.
    maybe nano 2 will backtest the triangle at 1923?
    or maybe 4 was a running flat 1916/1926/1919
    later gang! 😀

  7. Lee X says:

    You guys are kind of giddy 😉

  8. lunker1 says:

    Thanks Tony for adding the micro count to the 60 minute chart.
    micro 1 = 24
    micro 4 = 1919
    5 = .618 x 1 = 1934
    5 = 1 = 1943
    5 = 1.62 x 1 = 1958

  9. Caldaro its looks like all the bears are gone

  10. elmer510 says:

    Thanks for the update, Tony !

    It’s been som real fine days in the stockmarket recently, so now I can go to Greece next month with my family 🙂

    Is it possible minute 4 of minor iii ended at 1919 today, or is 1917 obligatory ?

    I thought new ATH at 1928 could be the start of minute 5, or do you regard this as an extension of minute 3 ?

    • tony caldaro says:

      Enjoy your trip
      Looks like Micro 4 formed a triangle, ending today at 1919.
      Micro 5 underway from that low, but still resistance overhead.
      Probably need a gap up and over to go higher.
      Minute iii should end when this rally ends.

  11. General Electric GE looking like low risk day trade, currently, $26.66

    Daily trend is still up!

    Short term trade only.

  12. Went long, McDonald’s at $101.35 at the opening, sold the position at $101.75 for nice profit.

    Kids are getting out of school for summer break! Those here who know how to trade, remember, Charity is the only true investment. Went to McDonald’s this morning, order medium ice coffee, gave the girl $20 and told her keep the change! Also, I noticed, Tweeter hidden cash spreading around, very rich person, hiding cash at night along the beach, perfect! I like to rent Helium tank from Target stores, place $$$$ in ballon at let them go at night!

    Its summer time, those who can afford it, remember to spread the money around. Kids out of school need it.

    Most likely will go long McDonald’s again on Thursday. Trend is up!

    Good luck trading!

  13. jeffbalin says:

    I’m thinking we’ve gone 5 waves in Spx and Ndx and now in down mode- minute 4, .618 or whatever.

  14. lunker1 says:

    Hi Tony do you have a count on TLT? I’m curious to see if it holds support at 111.30

  15. pooch77 says:

    “ADP has been an accurate gauge of BLS private jobs [tomorrow’s Non-Farm Payroll] over the last three months, with a mean absolute miss of just 10K,” noted Credit Suisse economists. “Over the last twelve months (perhaps a truer measure of performance), the mean absolute miss is 40K.”
    User avatar
    Al_Dente Posts: 11799

  16. lunker1 says:

    This morning the Dow was the only index to make a lower. Leading down or the outlier?

  17. torehund says:

    Seems like ECB is firm on reducing the interest rates for depositors to under Zero, a hedge is to buy Norwegian or Sweedish Crowns, even the dollar looks sweet to depositors.

  18. pooch77 says:

    job miss

  19. timing101 says:

    Thanks Tony.
    My view on $RUT; the aging of a bull market. One pitchfork gives way to another.

  20. blackjak100 says:

    Not much going on…waiting for a hit of 1934 or overshoot to complete ED on $SPX. Ideal target would be 1935-1940. MACD is diverging on both hourly and daily. I realize it’s not as evident on Tony’s daily chart using his parameters and I realize this divergence has meant little in the QE market, but it’s what I’d expect to see near the end of an ED.

    • JK1987 says:

      bj, you are looking for higher market. But Archive says your are short AAPL at 636, now 11 points underwater, not making sense with your higher market outlook.

  21. alexh110 says:

    Hi Tony, just wondering whether you think the forthcoming bear market will already be starting to bite in time for the US midterms?
    And what about the UK general election in May 2015? Should we expect Britain to be in a severe recession by that time?

  22. Kevin M says:

    $trin average not looking good here (for the bulls). Like I said in May the most this market might get to before the End of June, is 1920ish. Looks like we are topping based on supply and demand($trin). My hat goes off to tony for calling this, even though I may come off guns blazing. I give credit when credit is due. With that said, seasonally June is a tough month regardless of printing and sentiment inversion as we are now. I’m looking for 1890ish by the end of June to mark iv on tony’s 60min and the then rally into July to top out at 1950ish to finish v and III

    Remember the printing ENDS in the FALL. Is there any chance this won’t end up like previous punch bowl taking away?


    • June, month of weddings!

      Sudden crack in the wave structure, http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=jUgQCrQ1Czo

    • Hi Kevin! I would really like to follow your reasoning. There is red alert on most charts presently. However, short term trading is all about Investor psychology, which was a tough lesson to learn in may….
      This time around, I will follow the sentiment Readings. The bearish sentiment is massive, and I am curious about Life as a contrarian Investor.

      • tommyboys says:

        A Merrill study finds that investment strategists are bearish, which bodes well for stocks…
        With the Standard & Poor’s 500 index trading around a record high, Wall Street is as nervous as a long-tailed cat on a porch full of rocking chairs.
        The common view is that many stock prices are higher than merited by corporate earnings and economic conditions. The market strategists at Bank of America Merrill Lynch say the pessimism among their peers at other banks is at the highest level since the market lows of 2009.
        Paradoxically, the price of options, which are surrogates for stocks, remains at historically low levels. The options market’s fear gauge, the CBOE Volatility Index, is around 11.50, indicating investors have nary a care in the world that stock prices may decline. This creates an opportunity to monetize Merrill’s “Sell Side Consensus Indicator,” which is now flashing a buy signal.
        Each month, Merrill strategists measure the average equity allocation recommended by other strategists. When the sell-side consensus indicator shows market strategists are bearish, it is a signal to buy stocks. When the indicator is bullish, it’s time to sell.
        For the second straight month, the bank’s sell-side indicator declined. The indicator was at 51.3 in May, down from 52.2, a level even more bearish than March 2009 when the stock market bottomed during the financial crisis.

      • tommyboys says:

        Based on this Merrill study there is plenty of bull left…just gotta get through this consolidating rough patch. Time will tell.

      • tommyboys says:

        Apparently no one right now – its dead.

  23. ocaj2000 says:


    • tommyboys says:


      • ocaj2000 says:


      • winslow80 says:

        ocaj2000 says:
        June 3, 2014 at 4:19 pm

        tommyboys says:
        June 3, 2014 at 5:52 pm

        ocaj2000 says:
        June 3, 2014 at 5:53 pm


        ocaj2000: I knew you reminded me of someone special, but could not quite place who it might be. Yet with today’s breathtakingly deft strategic ploy, it becomes unavoidably apparent…Garry Kasparov! You have mastered the perfect counter move for every scenario.

        Such sequencing! Your opening gambit was skillfully matched by tommyboys, but how could he possibility have anticipated your subsequent devastating blitz? Not unlike Michelangelo or Johann Sebastian Bach, you have truly perfected your craft. It is a rare privilege to witness an all-time great in his prime.

      • torehund says:

        Tommy stay in there and fight it out, when it first turns it will be a tzunami.

  24. tony caldaro says:

    So far JCP looks bullish, but no targets

  25. NYSE most likely wants to make 5 new weekly higher closes, which would produce Match number of previous Wave structure Feb 7, 2014 low to 3-7-2014 High comparing wave structure on daily time frame, one more daily higher close, would produce 8 new higher closes, Matching number! From 4-15 low to 5-13 high on NYSE. Wednesday will be 34 trading days from 4-15 low. Match! Also, Monday was 13 trading days from 5-13 high. Match! Currently, its market perfect for short term traders, A-D line has been negative recently, Suggesting, sometime soon, Bearish tone will play out. Tonys spot on his analysis, I don’t have any open positions currently, only, trading on very short time frame, scalping basically.

  26. attitude928 says:

    Thanks Tony.
    $RUT reverses tomorrow (it starts going back up)

  27. Tony what is your view on JCP?

    You think JCP bottomed out , if so what is potential target up ?

    Thank you

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