weekend update


For a four day trading week the market did fairly well. It opened at new all time highs on Tuesday. Then made higher highs, with small pullbacks along the way, every day this week. For the week the SPX/DOW were +0.95%, the NDX/NAZ were +1.50%, and the DJ World gained 0.75%. On the economic front reports continue to come in higher. On the uptick: durable goods, FHFA housing, consumer confidence/sentiment, pending home sales, personal income, the PCE, Chicago PMI, the WLEI, the monetary base, and weekly jobless claims improved. On the downtick: personal spending, Case-Shiller and Q1 GDP. Next week we get the ISM indices, monthly Payrolls and the FED’s Beige book.

LONG TERM: bull market

We are now 62 months from the March 2009 bear market low, and this market is still making new all time highs. During this period the SPX has gained 188%. Quite impressive. Despite this tremendous gain we do not see the bull market nearing an end just yet. There are still several trends that need to unfold, and a possibly very steep correction soon.


We continue to count this bull market as Cycle wave [1], consisting of five Primary waves. Primary waves I and II completed in 2011, and Primary wave III has been underway since then. Primary I divided into five Major waves with a subdividing Major 1. Primary III is also dividing into five Major waves, but now Major waves 3 and 5 are subdividing. Major waves 1 and 2 completed in late 2011, and Major waves 3 and 4 completed in early 2014. Major wave 5 has been underway since February.

When Major 5 concludes it should end Primary wave III. Then a potentially steep, multi-month, correction will follow for Primary IV. Typically, during bull markets, Primary waves II and IV are similar in depth and duration. Primary II took five months to unfold, and the market lost 22% during the decline. We are expecting Primary IV to last about three months with a market loss of 15+%. Then Primary V should take the market to new highs to conclude the bull market. Thus far we are maintaining our bull market target range of SPX 1970 to 2070 by Q3/Q4.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

For the past several weeks we have been providing technical evidence why the steep correction in the NDX/NAZ, the choppiness in the SPX/DOW, and seasonality factors would not stop the market from making all time new highs soon. Obviously our work has paid off. Our work in the NDX/NAZ was clearly the key to this conclusion.

Now that both indices are in confirmed uptrends, we still expect the NAZ to make new bull market highs before its uptrend ends. The NDX already accomplished that goal this week. Currently, the NAZ is still 2.8% below its previous high. This suggests, even if the NAZ outpaces the SPX 2 to 1, in percentage terms, the SPX should hit the OEW 1956 pivot.


After reviewing the internal counts within all four major indices uptrends. We found the SPX/NDX/NAZ appear to be all similar. All three appear to be in Minute iii of Minor 3 of their respective uptrends. The DOW, however, looks to be quite different. It continues to act like it is in some sort of diagonal triangle pattern from its Major wave 4 low in February. While this is not a problem for the general market. It does help to confirm that the other three indices are in a Major wave 5 topping pattern. Medium term support is at the 1901 and 1869 pivots, with resistance at the 1929 and 1956 pivots.



Short term support is at the 1901 pivot and SPX 1891, with resistance at the 1929 and 1956 pivots. Short term momentum ended the week with a negative divergence. The short term OEW charts remains positive from SPX 1877, with the reversal level now 1918.


Minor 1 rose from SPX 1814-1885 (71 pts.). With Minor 3 reaching SPX 1924 on Friday, it is currently only a couple of points longer than Minor 1: SPX 1851-1924 (73 pts.). If this one to one relationship is to remain. Then the OEW 1929 pivot should offer some serious resistance for much of next week. This would allow time for the smaller waves, yet to unfold, to complete. Adding to this possibility is the series of negative divergences on the hourly chart, and the fact that the market has not had one notable pullback in seven trading days. Next week could be quite choppy. Best to your trading!


The Asian markets were mixed on the week for a net loss of 0.2%.

The European markets were mostly higher for a net gain of 1.8%.

The Commodity equity group were all lower losing 1.8%.

The DJ World index continues to uptrend and gained 0.8%.


Bonds continue to uptrend and gained 0.4% on the week.

Crude remains choppy losing 1.5% on the week.

Gold broke down through $1260 support, remains in a downtrend, and lost 3.3% on the week.

The USD appears to be in an uptrend but ended flat on the week. Both the EUR and CHF are quite oversold and due for at least a bounce.


Monday: ISM manufacturing and Construction spending at 10am. Tuesday: Factory orders and Auto sales. Wednesday: the ADP index, Trade deficit, ISM services and the FED’s beige book. Thursday: weekly Jobless claims. Friday: the Payrolls report, the Unemployment rate, and Consumer credit. The ECB meets on Thursday, and FED governor Powell gives a speech on Friday. Best to your weekend and week!

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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163 Responses to weekend update

  1. tommyboys says:

    Just received this email regarding yet another doomer book at #1…Could the doomer author’s be this prescient calling the top? Doesn’t generally work this way FWIW…

    David Skarica’s New Book Hit Top Seller List!
    David Skarica’s new stock market book titled Collapse!

    At this moment this morning it is selling as the number one ebook on Amazon for stock investing.
    You can see the sales rank here and a review someone already posted for the book:

  2. uncle10 says:

    There has been some discussion about if reported economic data has any value in determining whether stock markets are going to go up or down.
    Through my study I see they give no insight at all. The reports can be great and we might just be starting a bear market with a 50% decline or they may be bad and we are just starting a bull increasing 50%, and all in between…… I can’t figure out why anyone pays attention to any of the reports??

    • tony caldaro says:

      each report matters some, but as a whole they matter

      • rc1269 says:

        yes, what Tony says.
        to say the data itself is meaningless would be like saying the condition underlying the data – ie, the economy at large – is meaningless. even if you’re stricklya chartist and believe there is a complete disconnect between price and fundamentals, you have to at least believe in capital flows. since that ultimately moves prices. and the state of the economy impacts capital flows.

      • uncle10 says:

        So if as a whole they are good ie ism above 50, 200,000 + job growth, etc.. then good economy and good for stocks? and vice versa? thanks

        • tony caldaro says:

          It’s all about expectations.
          In bull markets good news, and sometimes bad news is good for stocks.
          In bear markets bad news, and sometimes good news is bad for stocks.
          In this QE bull market, good news is sometimes sold (less QE) and bad news bought (more QE).

      • lunker1 says:

        The good numbers are good until the market sells the news and then everything is bad lol.

        To me it seems there is a cycle:
        Bad numbers are good
        Good numbers are good
        Good numbers are bad
        Bad numbers are bad

      • JK1987 says:

        It really matters.
        There were 11 PMI contractions, always followed with bear market of some kind.
        Without PMI contraction below 50, bull market still is ongoing, no exception.

      • rc1269 says:

        absolutely agree with Lunker, re the cycle

      • uncle10 says:

        lol, I agree with lunker 2!!! in other words sometimes good numbers are bad and bad are good……. so they………….

    • The market’s reaction to econ reports reveals something about the underlying psychology of market players. It depends a lot on the context of all the factors. If the market has been down 56%, like in 2009, but it doesn’t want to go down more in spite of worsening econ data, that implies that that stock prices have discounted the unfolding bad news already.

      • uncle10 says:

        Agree George. The econ reports don’t tell you much……….don’t pay them any attention.
        The market tells you all you NEED to no. The rest is noise and usually harmful to the investor/trader. Well past my 3. good day and gl . Thanks.

  3. thanks for the update tony, a much appreciated read as always!

    Did the market just experience micro 4 of minute iii of minor 3 etc. Largest pull back (10 points) since Wednesday May 21.

    • tony caldaro says:

      may be finishing Minute iii soon … yes

      • Ooops, I think I got my wave degree off by 1 degree.

        micro 1 from 1862 to 1886 (24 points)
        micro 2 down to 1868
        now in micro 3, which is already 2.33x 1. May therefore seek the 2.618x extension (1931ish). Assume micro 4=2, then micro 4 should get SPX back down to upper range of 1901 pivot (1910ish).
        Assume micro 5=1, then micro 5 should get SPX back up to the upper range of the 1929 pivot (1934ish).
        That will then end minute iii. In that case, iii will be ~2.38x minute i (1850-1891). Nice fib relation. This will then also in line with “The OEW 1929 pivot should offer some serious resistance for much of next [this] week”

        Will have to await minute iv before minute v (minor 3) can be predicted.

  4. rc1269 says:

    ISM second correction. now 55.4. from 56. from 53.2
    they’ve got a crack team of summer interns working on this one
    well we should be pretty confident the number is somewhere between 50-60

  5. The day is not over, obviously, but RUSSELL is forming a hammer candlestick right off the 200MA with a MACD positive cross-over (still not over the zero line yet) which occurred in May. One gap up day and price jumps out of its downtrend. The bulls definitely want to keep price above the 200MA and looks like they are winning the battle so far.

  6. blackjak100 says:

    I’m inclined to think we just saw a fourth wave correction and are in the final impulsive wave (5 of c of V) of this ED targeting 1933 at a minimum but as high as 1950ish.

    I may be wrong but it’s how I see it as of now

    I could

    • blackjak100 says:

      Or the fourth wave correction is forming an expanded flat targeting 1910ish which will complete tomorrow?

  7. rc1269 says:

    ISM revised to 56. the ol’ intraday pumpfake

  8. rc1269 says:

    nice little outside day in the works. or an EL for those candle folks

  9. torehund says:

    Watch out in bulk, could be a squeeze emerging, Free is just making a feeble attempt just now.

  10. lunker1 says:

    I am out of UPRO and TQQQ on the break of Friday’s lows. The C=A on SPX (E of ED?) plus the back tests of the rising TL, Plus the VIX buy signal (SPX sell) coming back inside the BB last week, plus the rising VIX w higher highs end of last week, Plus hit the 1.382 extension off of the 1576 old ATH = 1923, Plus the -D on the 60 minute RSI, plus the daily RSI got above 80.

    Might get right back in after the overbought conditions are worked off and price and RSI does the right things.

  11. Lee X says:

    Thanks Tony
    Pivot Juice Monday

    • blackjak100 says:

      rubber band must stretch to at least 1933 and could be reached tomorrow already!

  12. Joel Wenger says:

    Reblogged this on The Safe Investing Blog and commented:
    The markets followed through on Tuesday (>1.5% move on higher trading volume), taking the shorter term outlook from a correction to an uptrend.

    The intermediate and long term Elliot Wave uptrends remain intact, and the markets aren’t showing any signs of testing them any time soon.

  13. As we all know, the Russell is a leading indicator. Price needs to get out of this downtrend fast, as the 50MA is getting awfully close to the 200MA. If we get a “death cross”, this is when the 3X’s bears are worth playing — generally not before then, without getting chopped up and spit out.

    • tommyboys says:

      I could envision a temporary cross getting the most bearish and short only to reverse up hard catching them all off guard…yet again.

    • ariez5 says:

      Jedi, You may be right. But at present I think a safer trade is long SPY (or SDY) : short IWM. Take a look. It had a bullish cross late April, then retraced 38% and bounced off the lower BB. It looks attractive with a stop below the recent lows.

      • Thanks, Ariez. Perfect set-up per your post. I am neither long or short at the moment. Cashed out of my “swing” shorts and went to cash when I posted the reversal of COMPQ a week or so ago (can’t remember date).

  14. mjtplayer says:

    “Read in the past month Germany was for anything to improve the economy”

    – How about leaving the Euro and going back to the Mark?

  15. pooch77 says:

    Should see gapper up on China PMI

    • lol, yup. i have a macd of global surface temperature anomalies for most databases available (GISS, NCDC, HadCRUT4) and all produced a sell-signal around 2007. Prior to that was a buy signal in 1976, a sell signal in 1945 and a buy signal in 1911. Note the 60 period!?!? hmmmm…

      • lcd00 says:

        Yes, I’ve seen the MACD, we’ll see how it plays out. Not so funny to anyone who truly observes the natural world, however. Try the American Southwest, for example. The wholesale devastation that spreads from Arizona into southern Colorado far exceeds any 60 year cycle die-off regeneration; it is epochal, and not so funny. A few years hence people of your persuasion might consider placing the lion’s share of their investment dollars in beachfront property where the false science has projected significant sea level rise–a counter-trend trade to support the bravado. There should be some discounts, and if you’re right, you can laugh to the bank as you reap riches from weak hands.

      • lcdoo, what State do you live in? I’m in SE TX and well over a week of rain has finally stopped here and managed to break the drought… Unless we get no more rain for the rest of the Summer, which happened last year and the year before, etc… It’s terrible. Fresh Water has become Big Business, esp. in Right Of Capture States like TX, which makes it disastrous, should the Capturer decide to sell the water elsewhere. I feel for you, lc, I really do(o).

  16. RDC says:

    Thanks Tony.

  17. blackjak100 says:

    Jedi, you called me a brave man for shorting AAPL on Friday. I did it because it was simply so overextended and I believe WWDC week is usually bearish as everyone is buying into it. I looked at the waves a little closer and it looks like the worst case scenario is a minor wave 3 top @ $644 and now a fourth wave correction which could retrace towards $620. However, this makes minor wave 3 shorter than minor wave 1 starting at $511 which is OK.

    I think I will be OK on this trade but it won’t make me rich.

  18. bouraq says:

    Weekend charts:
    $SPX $DOW $GOLD $COPPER $GBPUSD $AUDUSD $SUGAR $OIL $NATGAS http://www.tradingchannels.co.uk/2014/06/weekend-charts.html

  19. torehund says:

    Clorox, to me this Company became obvious due to the resent exposure of Carl Icans ownership, and then myself actually buing some of this desinfecting household product, and chasing a Mexican scorpion away (that had been taking cover in y sink), With a dash of it.
    Talking about the Stock itself it has gone from 2 USD or so, then in a straight sloping line to nearly 90 USD and has a pe of 80.
    Pervious to Carl Icans involvement With it, now releaseade by the media, it has to be the most unexposed/unknown share in the history of Stocks among investors.
    Why is it now getting exposure ?; is it a false flag operation to create Public awareness so there will be somebody to distribute it to when it plunges ?

  20. JK1987 says:

    OEW tutoring
    This is not a course, this is private tutoring: one on one. You may take as long as you like to fully grasp the material and concepts at hand. It is not complicated.

    Exactly, excellent!

    “Last year we added the SPX sector rotation scenarios.
    Obviously our work has paid off. Our work in the NDX/NAZ was clearly the key to this conclusion.”

    Excellent sector analysis on NDX/NAZ while everyone was in doubt of NDX/NAZ!

    Lesson 23 is all about Housing, leading/lagging indicators

    Currencies are the main theme in lesson 24

    Tremendous excellent work on one on one in the private tutoring group, MUST JOIN!


  21. winslow80 says:

    The Federal Reserve controls the stock market. Levitating stock prices is the singular achievement of the Fed’s profligate spending spree, and the governors are loathe to forfeit their lone accomplishment. As this Fed-induced rally has chewed through one resistance level after another, there have been numerous forecasts of an impending top. Yet each of these predictions has been mere speculation – there has been no supporting technical evidence of a major high being formed. The H/S in Naz was predictably illusory. The SPX May 13 false breakout led to a meager two day pullback. The top callers saw only mirages.

    They still do.There is enormous support under the market because institutions and hedge funds have shared the public’s cognitive dissonance about rising prices in a crap economy, and having missed a great bull move they are now anxious to buy declines. For all the rhetoric about tapering, the Fed has continued to create enormous liquidity which waits impatiently on the sidelines ready to pounce on lower prices.

    Given the prevailing dynamic, it is arrogant folly to project a top in advance. Only negative price action will confirm that a reversal in trend has occurred, and there has been no negative price action ~ even the “harrowing” declines in Naz and RUT were mere pullbacks to support. Therefore, “Where will the market top?” has been the wrong question and remains the wrong question. The right question is still, “Where is a low risk/high reward entry point that is in consonance with this powerful uptrend?”

    • JK1987 says:

      Response to your request to document the history…: I am tracking all you.
      winslow80 says:
      May 30, 2014 at 7:10 am
      Perhaps our resident archivist JK will document that history…

      winslow80 says:
      May 15, 2014 at 7:08 pm
      JK1987 says:
      May 15, 2014 at 3:34 pm
      “TRIN was at 3, very extreme.”

      Since the beginning of 2013, this is the seventh intraday TRIN reading > 2.5. The first six occurred within three trading days of the market subsequently making a significant low.

      winslow80 says:
      April 1, 2014 at 9:55 am
      GLD has Fibonacci and chart support from 122.51-122.24, which provides a low risk/high reward.entry point for traders

      • lunker1 says:

        hey somethings missing……where’s Tony’s quote saying not to quote people?! 😉

      • winslow80 says:


        You forgot to include the post that motivated rc1269 to begin his beguiling “garbage in garbage out” mantra:

        winslow80 says:
        April 16, 2014 at 9:52 am

        Even following this morning’s up gap, the CNN Greed/Fear Index is 22 (Extreme Fear).
        SPX formed an ABC terminating at 1814 support. C = A, and completed at the 1.382 extension of A.
        Naz held the confluence of the 200 day ema and the 2012 uptrendline.
        NDX double bottomed at the Feb low.
        DJI completed an ABC at the Feb/Mar lows.
        NYA held 10270 support.
        WLSH held the 2012 uptrendline.
        SPX Daily Full Stochastics 33/19.
        In a bull market. Classic SPX EW consolidation. Oversold. Underloved. Held support.
        Upside target {1.272 (1982 low -2000 high)} = 1947.97
        And if it all falls apart, stopped out on a move below 1814.

    • rc1269 has been around here a long time, and offers excellent info. on bonds, rates and credit. Very beneficial to many of us.

    • rc1269 says:

      “Given the prevailing dynamic, it is arrogant folly to project a top in advance”

      i’m probably wrong, as usual, but i thought most projections are done in advance. despite your disdain for projections, you then go on to suggest the “real question” is “Where is a low risk/high reward entry point that is in consonance with this powerful uptrend?” which, oddly, sounds to me a lot like making a projection in advance. or maybe you mean to say that we won’t ask that question in advance of when the good entry point happens, but rather precisely at the moment it happens, but no sooner. otherwise we’d be arrogantly projecting again. or is projecting only “arrogant” when it has been unsuccessful?

      i gave up trying to figure out who you’re quoting with the “harrowing”

      but you get 2 gold stars for verbosity. yay

      • Lee X says:

        I like the “garbage in garbage out” mantra as I think it’s right up there with “Like I said”🙂

      • winslow80 says:

        rc1269 says:
        June 1, 2014 at 4:28 pm

        You are too easily manipulated.
        You have nice hair, though:

      • rc1269 says:

        winslow80 says:
        June 1, 2014 at 5:36 pm
        rc1269 says:
        June 1, 2014 at 4:28 pm

        You are too easily manipulated.
        You have nice hair, though:

        you seem to have a lot of time on your hands now that you’re on summer break. i’ll miss our talks when you have to return for the 10th grade. enjoy the summer, and remember to wear sunblock.

      • winslow80 says:

        rc1269 says:
        June 1, 2014 at 5:51 pm
        “you seem to have a lot of time on your hands now that you’re on summer break. i’ll miss our talks when you have to return for the 10th grade. enjoy the summer, and remember to wear sunblock.”

  22. kjb0 says:

    In a few short years we will lose our status as the only world reserve currency. China and Russia just signed a historic agreement where they no longer need to use petrol dollars as a form of exchange. The Fed will use every trick in the book to keep this from happening but in the end they will lose. Make no mistake this will happen and the American people will be blindsided. I shudder to think of the many ways the government will use to take our money for their debt. Ignore at your own peril. The dollar will rise in the short term as they devalue the euro but in the long run the dollar is toast.

  23. Sorry about the repeat post below. Was meant to be response to another poster.

    What’s w/the Icahn, Walters, Mickelsen (sp?) Insider Trading deal? TV talking ‘jail time’… HA! I don’t think there’s much chance of that, IMO. Of course, if a woman like Martha Stewart does it for a mere couple hundred thousand, she’ll go to jail. I don’t care what anyone says, The Double Standard is alive and well on Earth… And don’t you ever forget it!


  24. Sure, there could be bank runs, but of no use. I’m suggesting that IF The Orwellian Scenario were to happen, Treasury and others would simply close the banks, money, ATM’s, etc. removed quietly, under cover of darkness and just bare buildings remain when announcement comes on a Monday or Tuesday morning (if a Monday Holiday). US would be under something akin to martial law. No way to run on the bank, as nothing and nobody there.

    The banks, and therefore, govt, already knows everything we buy w/debit cards, etc. No Futureshock there.


  25. blackjak100 says:

    Thanks tony! The top of the ED trendline sits at 1933ish mon. I expect the trendline to be touched at a minimum but most likely overshot. This could be achieved as early as mon where 5 waves up (very shallow waves ii & iv but in proportion) can be counted from 1868. a=c=1939 on Tuesday???

  26. ocaj2000 says:


  27. Good news for BEARS at last. SPX is definitely not going above 13273.4 that is thirteen thousand two hundred and seventy three point 4. My confidence level in this statement is less than 10%.

    • torehund says:

      Sometimes its good to look at the alternative. SDS- macd far below zero on the weekly and macd has just finished a long flattish upward tilting ABC up. It is as ugly as ugly gets🙂

  28. lunker1 says:

    Per my posts on Fridays update seems close to a good spot for minute 3 to end and retrace approx 20-25 points But also mindful that this could be the E wave of an ED so treading lightly.

  29. lunker1 says:

    Thanks Tony. Have a great weekend! Rainy season is in full swing in Fort Myers so looking forward to T storm watching and cooler days now that we have some clouds again.

  30. ko68 says:

    Thanks a lot Tony!
    Dummy question; but the existing wave count is minor 3 of intermediate 5 of major 5?

  31. SuperWorm says:


    Thanks for the weekend update. Ienjoy reading it very much!!
    Do you have the time frame of reaching int. iii 1956 and P3 time frame and target? Thank you!!

  32. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    Keeping the critics at bay and sticking to your well thought out plan. Great work.

  33. mjtplayer says:

    Thank You Tony – another great update!

    Lots of chatter about the ECB meeting this week. GS says no QE coming, many think the ECB lowers rates to zero or almost zero (but not negative rates, yet). Dropping the .25% rate to .15% or something is a waste of time; dropping to 0% won’t help much either. The German Supreme court has deemed QE in the EU/Euro as unconstitutional, not that the politicians follow the laws anyway, but a QE program could create increased political tension in the EU zone.

    Europe is toast anyway, whatever they do is just an attempt to delay the inevitable: bankruptcy/default

    • tony caldaro says:

      Read in the past month Germany was for anything to improve the economy.

      • mccarthyti says:

        the Federal Reserve balance sheet is a guarantee of the US Treasury. The ECB balance sheet is a guarantee of its member states, since Germany is the largest economy, why would German tax payers want the ECB to buy other countries bonds? All the EU Countries that under the EURO issue debt in EURO’s but their requirements are based on each countries fiscal situation. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

    • pcskier says:

      We bounce of support mid April due to buy the rumor from draghi. We should get sell the news hard post ecb meeting. It looks like $rut is done with its bounce, Spx is 1 to 3 points away from turning down. $indu may not make a new high or if it does it may not be going much higher. $tnx found resistance Friday and will be heading back down to it break through its 200 week ma creating new low yields for the year. Efa is hitting a major resistance line now. If the ecb delivers more than consensus I guess we can break through. But, with peripheral debt at all time lows, I don’t see them doing much more than 10 to 25 basis point cut. The yield on the Portugal 10 yr was cut in half in 2014. That is crazy!!!! Plus we have g7 this week followed by d day meeting with obama and Europe leaders and Putin. What do you think they are going to talk about??

  34. Thanks Tony! Excellent analysis as always.
    CFox (LOL!)

  35. Thanks, Tony! Love your weekend commentary … brought to us each week without fail and no interest, no down payment, no cash. Go find another accurate equity advisor who does the same — not! Have a nice weekend Tony and all!

  36. llerias7 says:

    Tony, I reamain a bit confused: OEW 1956 should be the end P3 or just Int.III of P3?

  37. elmer510 says:

    Thanks for your good work, Tony.
    Wish you a fine weekend.

  38. winslow80 says:

    cycleanalysis says:
    May 28, 2014 at 6:07 am
    Hi Tony
    What is your view on Gold miners…
    tony caldaro says:
    May 28, 2014 at 6:10 am
    We are looking for an a-b-c rally off the December low.
    A done, B almost done, C next

    GDX has retraced .777 of the Dec/Mar rally. It is holding the weekly lower Bollinger Band, and has formed the potential to create a downward sloping IHS. There is a “W” on the daily MACD histogram. Daily RSI(5) reached its lowest level since 2010, unconfirmed by price. Since 2010, GDX has made significant lows in May/June. There is 48 week (231-232 trading day) time symmetry: 7/23/12-6/26/13-5/29/14. HUI today had an outside day to the upside, as did GDXJ.

    GDX closed at 22.50, off the weekly low of 21.93. A = 7.85. Assuming B is now complete and C=A, the profit potential is 7.32 while the risk is .58 (12.62:1).

    WARNING: The Surgeon General Has Determined That Buying Gold Stocks During A Gold Bear Market May Be Indicative Of Substandard Mental Health

      • winslow80 says:

        Which is precisely why i took the trade. My feeling is, “The other people on this site are all so incredibly well-adjusted ~ if I don’t exhibit substandard mental health, who will?” The only other Elliott Wave Lives On blog contributor who has even been accused of psychotic behavior is Marilyn, and as we now find it impossible to forget she is crazy like a fox.

        The SPX 1/15-4/4 rising tops line comes in Monday at 1929.36, which dovetails with the pivot.

        There is a run-stop double bottom on the monthly US Dollar chart (10/13, 5/14) with a “W” on the monthly histogram. Given the grotesque irresponsibility of the US government, it is fundamentally improbable that the dollar will advance significantly…just as it was fundamentally improbable for the bonds to have recently done so.

      • winslow80 says:

        Which is precisely why I took the trade. Everyone else on the site is so well-adjusted that if I do not exhibit substandard mental health, who will? Marilyn is the only other contributor who is accused of being psychotic, and as anyone who pays attention cannot possibly forget she is crazy like a fox.

        The SPX rising tops line (1/15-4/4) is at 1930.21 on Monday.

  39. tony caldaro says:

    The debit card is already assisting toward a cashless society.
    But just like the penny, cash is not going away.
    The ECB is more likely to start QE, then force negative interest rates.

    • Libor Val says:

      HI Tony, negative interest rates – I withdraw all the money and put it under a mattress. it is not possible banks blow off dont you think?

      • tony caldaro says:

        I would not own a bank stock even if it was given to me for free.
        The growth is gone, and they are turning into utilities as they should.

      • The banks should lobby for the return of the Glass-Steagall Act. At least they could then use the non-retail deposit part of their assets to do proprietary trading. As unseparated entities, they are going to be forced to give up trading for their own accounts, which is where their growth has come from, by the bank regulators.

    • torehund says:

      OK Tony, then we could expect a rising EU-stockmarket, a strenghtening of the dollar vs Euro, and an even lower price of commodities ?
      I read that skimming under 100 usd for iron-ore (currently at 95 usd), its cheaper for China to import vs mining it themselves; could this benefit shippers ?
      Lots happening right now, difficult to build a scenario but desparate attempts to force inflation and Growth seems to be continuing relentlessly.

    • 16golfer says:

      Can the ECB actually do QE?
      I thought I read something about them not being able to do it like we can.
      What would have to happen for you to change your view that the bull market ended at the 1929 pivot?
      Grass cutting is calling….

  40. rolandu11 says:

    That does look very good (SPX / DOW). Maybe some momentum comes in because of the month beginning next week.

  41. torehund says:

    Thanks for the update Tony. Some questions:
    ECB is warning of something to be changed, lowering of the 0,25 peercent interest rate, which for depositors in EU-banks implies negative rates. So banks will shrink Your Money in a final attempt to boost the ecomomy, lol. In addition to this the FED signals an end to paper Money maybe in 2016. Scary times, but will this bring a Whole lot of depositors buying “whatever” to avoid such a scenario ?

    • torehund says:

      Or will we see a bank run where depositors chooses to hoard paper-Money in the matress ? Well if FED get their electro (cuting) currency only then the latter option isnt possible ? Then the last cent will have to enter the market before a great deflation…Has this happened before and what were the results ????

    • “…FED signals an end to paper Money ..”

      tore, if the end of paper money, or the withdrawal of money from banks is to occur, I wouldn’t think The Fed would signal anything, quite the opposite. It would happen over a weekend; wake up on Monday morning and hear the news. Only debit card / maybe credit cards accepted, thus, the money moves directly to and from institutions. If this were 1929, with the technology we have today, I think the scenario above, or something similar would be most likely; there would definitely NOT be any ‘signal’, unless one is astute enough to read the underlying situation, intuitively, or otherwise. It’s an Economic Doomsday Scenario to be sure.


      • torehund says:

        CFox: Its kind of headed towards the Orewllian reality, even if you buy a piece of chewing gum, uncle FED knows when you bought it, at what time, and in which 7 eleven. No more bank runs, guaranteed ?

      • Sure, there could be bank runs, but of no use. I’m suggesting that IF The Orwellian Scenario were to happen, Treasury and others would simply close the banks, money, ATM’s, etc. removed quietly, under cover of darkness and just bare buildings remain when announcement comes on a Monday or Tuesday morning (if a Monday Holiday). US would be under something akin to martial law. No way to run on the bank, as nothing and nobody there.

        The banks, and therefore, govt, already knows everything we buy w/debit cards, etc. No Futureshock there.


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