friday update

SHORT TERM: drift higher continues, DOW +18

Overnight the Asian markers closed mixed. Europe opened lower and lost 0.2%. US index futures were lower overnight. At 8:30 Personal income (+0.3% v +0.5%) was higher, spending was lower (-0.1% v +0.9%), and PCE prices were higher: +0.2% v +0.2%. The market opened one point below yesterday’s SPX 1920 record close, dipped to 1917, and then started to rise. At 9:45 the Chicago PMI was reported higher: 65.5 v 63.0, then at 9:55 Consumer sentiment was reported higher: 81.9 v 81.8. By 11:30 the market hit SPX 1921 and then began to pullback. After retesting SPX 1917 again by 12:30, the market tried to rally. Heading into the close the SPX hit 1924, and closed there.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.15%, and the NDX/NAZ were mixed. Bonds lost 8 ticks, Crude dropped 70 cents, Gold fell $5, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1901 and 1868 pivots, with resistance at the 1929 and 1956 pivots. Last night the FED reported an increase in the Monetary base: $3.933tn. v $3.928tn. Today the WLEI was reported higher again: 55.3% v 55.0%.

The market today stair-stepped its way higher, with a small pullback in between the new highs. In fact, the largest pullback all week was only 7 points on Wednesday. As the SPX consistently made higher all time highs every day. Today’s afternoon rally pushed the SPX into the OEW 1929 pivot range (1922-1936). The minimum uptrend target has been met. The “sell in May” mantra worked for exactly two days in 2014 when the market dropped from SPX 1902 to 1862. For the month the SPX gained 2.10%.

Short term support is at the 1901 pivot and SPX 1891, with resistance at the 1929 and 1956 pivots. Short term momentum is again displaying a negative divergence with today’s new highs. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the reversal level now SPX 1918. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: all four major indices in confirmed uptrends

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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19 Responses to friday update

  1. lunker1 says:

    almost stopped out of my Q’s today on the break of yesterday’s low but was counting on the blue channel line to provide support and it did right on the nose.

  2. Thanks Tony! It’s been a great week! 333333… Looking forward to your WEU.

  3. chrisk44342 says:

    Interesting. SPX closes precisely on 1.382 of 2007-2009 bear move.

  4. 16golfer says:

    Thanks Tony! Look forward to your WE update in the morning. Headed to the white beaches of FL with the grandkids for 10 days so hope I don’t miss much action.

  5. lunker1 says:

    Drawing a rising TL from the May 20 low May 28/29 lows the Qs TL broke down yesterday and back tested it this AM and then the SPX did the same thing today closing right on the 1.382 ext of 667 -> 1576 at 1923 I’m cautious here.

    • lunker1 says:

      Why would you expect to Red 4 to retrace so deeply when Red 2 made a deep retrace? I would expect it to make a shallow retrace instead Especially when Red 3 has been so strong, unlike Black 3

      • jobjas says:

        either a deep retrace Or prolonged sideway move for wave 4 (red).
        However since wave 5 (black)has already reached 61.8% of 0-3 (black) dont expect red 5 to go much over red 3.

  6. torehund says:
    If May 2013 was a wave 2 bottom, this bull could last for another 10 years🙂

  7. thanks tony. it continues to look and feel indeed like a 3rd (of a 3rd) wave: barely any pullbacks that would otherwise allow those that missed the train earlier on to catch it for a ride. price shows considerable strength and all systems are still a solid go on weekly and daily scale for being long.

  8. tommyboys says:

    Strong PMI today…

    May 30, 2014, 9:55 a.m. EDT
    Chicago PMI accelerates in May

    WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Chicago PMI accelerated in May, according to the Chicago business barometer released Friday . It rose to 65.5 in May from 63.0 in April, beating the MarketWatch-compiled consensus of 62.1. It is the highest level of the PMI since October. Order-backlogs rose to a three-year high in May while new orders rose slightly. Any reading over 50 indicates expansion.”We’ve had false dawns before, but the long run of strength in the survey, coupled with other more positive economic data, suggests growth is becoming more entrenched,” said Philip Uglow, the chief economist at MNI Indicators.

  9. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony ~ Kudos for the OEW.

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