SHORT TERM: drift higher continues, DOW +18
Overnight the Asian markers closed mixed. Europe opened lower and lost 0.2%. US index futures were lower overnight. At 8:30 Personal income (+0.3% v +0.5%) was higher, spending was lower (-0.1% v +0.9%), and PCE prices were higher: +0.2% v +0.2%. The market opened one point below yesterday’s SPX 1920 record close, dipped to 1917, and then started to rise. At 9:45 the Chicago PMI was reported higher: 65.5 v 63.0, then at 9:55 Consumer sentiment was reported higher: 81.9 v 81.8. By 11:30 the market hit SPX 1921 and then began to pullback. After retesting SPX 1917 again by 12:30, the market tried to rally. Heading into the close the SPX hit 1924, and closed there.
For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.15%, and the NDX/NAZ were mixed. Bonds lost 8 ticks, Crude dropped 70 cents, Gold fell $5, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1901 and 1868 pivots, with resistance at the 1929 and 1956 pivots. Last night the FED reported an increase in the Monetary base: $3.933tn. v $3.928tn. Today the WLEI was reported higher again: 55.3% v 55.0%.
The market today stair-stepped its way higher, with a small pullback in between the new highs. In fact, the largest pullback all week was only 7 points on Wednesday. As the SPX consistently made higher all time highs every day. Today’s afternoon rally pushed the SPX into the OEW 1929 pivot range (1922-1936). The minimum uptrend target has been met. The “sell in May” mantra worked for exactly two days in 2014 when the market dropped from SPX 1902 to 1862. For the month the SPX gained 2.10%.
Short term support is at the 1901 pivot and SPX 1891, with resistance at the 1929 and 1956 pivots. Short term momentum is again displaying a negative divergence with today’s new highs. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the reversal level now SPX 1918. Best to your weekend!
MEDIUM TERM: all four major indices in confirmed uptrends
LONG TERM: bull market