thursday update

SHORT TERM: new all time highs, DOW +66

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.5%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.1%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 Q1 GDP came in less than expected: -1.0% v +0.1%, and weekly Jobless claims were lower: 300k v 326k. The market opened four points above yesterday’s SPX 1910 close, then hit 1916 in the opening minutes. After that it started to pullback. At 10am Pending home sales were reported weaker: +0.4% v +3.4%. The pullback ended at SPX 1910 around 10:30. Then the market started to work its way higher. Heading into the close the SPX hit 1920 and closed there.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.45%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.60%. Bonds lost 6 ticks, Crude gained 80 cents, Gold slipped $3, and the USD was  lower. Medium term support remains at the 1901 and 1869 pivots, with resistance at the 1929 and 1956 pivots. Tomorrow: Personal income/spending and PCE prices at 8:30, then at 9:45 the Chicago PMI followed by Consumer sentiment. Also tomorrow, there is a FED conference starting at 9am.

The market opened higher today, made a new high, pulled back, then made another all time high. We noted yesterday, a pullback below SPX 1910, would probably lead to the largest pullback since the 1886-1868 decline. Yesterday’s close and today’s pullback stopped right at SPX 1910. We continue to see three waves up from SPX 1862: 1886-1868-1920. Our initial uptrend target of the OEW 1929 pivot range appears to be next.

Short term support is at the 1901 pivot and SPX 1891, with resistance at the 1929 and 1956 pivots. Short term momentum ended the day quite overbought. The short term OEW charts, which have been positive since SPX 1877, will turn negative with a drop below 1914. Best to your Friday trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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114 Responses to thursday update

  1. Thanks, Tony! I’m already thinking about your always intelligent weekend analysis with my morning brew. Thank you, sir, for providing me and your bloggers with something to look forward to every day and Saturday weekend. I am grateful to you.

    -OEW Coffee Club Member

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  2. pooch77 says:

    Cannot possible see this market going up much futher if small caps continue to lag

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    • torehund says:

      NAZ is ahead of the curve, look at weekly macd, iwm is still flat and naz has a hook.

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      • pooch77 says:

        Course the daily on the rut is all the way to top without much price movement,better turn Monday,2 hour chart needs to put in a bottom before this gets ugly again.If I waited for the hook on weekly you might be at 117 and I doubt this breaks new high before breaking down,i look for hook on daily

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  3. fionamargaret says:

    http://www.amateur-investor.net/AII_Daily_Report_May_29_2014.htm

    Thanks Tony and all ……..have a great weekend everyone.
    X

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  4. blackjak100 says:

    Look at that reversal in apple!

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    • rc1269 says:

      somebody recently mentioned AAPL was bumping against some important lines
      wasn’t me tho – i’m just a troll.
      diving back under my bridge now. cheers

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    • gtoptions says:

      The GS upgrade was the sell signal. 😉

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      • blackjak100 says:

        Agree…at least played a big part. It was so overextended from all moving averages that I had to try. I did not look at technical at all on this. Also, it was past the 1.618% ext of previous move where moves typically pause or retrace.

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      • blackjak100 says:

        Also just pointed out on another forum, $644 was the ‘high before the high’ in Apr 2012. I did not know that, but I nibbled in the high $630’s. I think everything is priced in for the WWDC next week and will drift lower like it normally does during WWDC week.

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    • gtoptions says:

      I agree with Jedi. I would not short AAPL. Technically it is beyond the major resistance zone I pointed out on the chart several weeks back. I have an AB=CD target of 680, It may well go back to 700+. Disclosure; I day trade the options, don’t own the stock.
      IMO Tim Cook is on a mission to dispel the Wall Street & CNBC/Bloomberg negativity. They are doing everything right, plus you have the Stock Split issue. Curious that CNBC/Bloomberg are not even discussing this event.
      Be careful & GL

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  5. lunker1 says:

    CN, SPX has a rolling open which typically make a longer candle. for this reason do you use the SPY open instead? Thx

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  6. Good morning everyone,
    Tony how large of a decline are you expecting from IV? Do you still expect a 10% or greater decline? Thank you.

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  7. Lee X says:

    Hey gary,

    Saw the notification today of Jimi Hough’s passing on the CME FB traders group page.
    Says he was a CME member from 1979 -1992 and it sounds like he was already trading other products by the time I started as a local in the S&P pit in 1991.
    Cherish each day if even for a little bit.
    Have a great weekend guys

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