wednesday update

SHORT TERM: consolidation day, DOW -42

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.3%. Europe opened lower but finished mixed. US index futures were higher overnight, and the market opened one point above yesterday’s SPX 1912 close. After a dip to SPX 1910 in the opening minutes the market rose to 1914. Then the market pulled back to SPX 1907 by 10:30. After that the market hit SPX 1914 three more times in the afternoon. With the last one around 3:30. The market then pulled back to close at SPX 1910.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.20%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.25%. Bonds gained 17 ticks, Crude slid $1.20, Gold dropped $6, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1901 and 1869 pivots, with resistance at the 1929 and 1956 pivots. Tomorrow: Q1 GDP (est. -0.5%) at 8:30 along with weekly Jobless claims. Then Pending home sales at 10am.

The market opened slightly higher today, made a new high at SPX 1914, then pulled back to 1907. After that it climbed back up to SPX 1914 in the afternoon, but kept bouncing off it. It appears that short term trend line is keeping a lid on this rally for now. Q1 GDP first thing tomorrow morning. Could be a market mover. Thus far still three waves up from 1862: 1886-1868-1914. A drop below SPX 1910 should usher in a larger pullback.

Short term support remains at the 1901 pivot and SPX 1891, with resistance at the 1929 and 1956 pivots. Short term momentum continues to display a negative divergence. The short term OEW ended neutral with the reversal level now SPX 1910. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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125 Responses to wednesday update

  1. Kevin M says:

    I hate admitting it but bravo Tony! I still think it would be foolish buying here. A better buy would be at the end of June for a Mid July top. Certainly though things are getting questionable for the longevity of this bull. The fall period should be an excellent opportunity for shorting.

    BTW if there is an ED and if tony is correct about July maybe we are only in wave 3 to 1930ish (wave 1 finished in March, the start was Feb) and then wave 4 to 1900, then up to 1950-60ish into mid July to finish it. The fall time frame should get the SPX back down to 1750ish.

    Bonds, yield spreads, russell, biotech blow-off etc…..showing warning signs here.



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