weekend update


The week started with a positive Monday, sold off on Tuesday, then ended within one point of the SPX 1902 all time high. The SPX/DOW were +0.95%, the NDX/NAZ were +2.40%, and the DJ World was +0.90%. On the economic front positive reports outpaced the negative 5 to 1. On the uptick: existing/new home sales, leading indicators, the WLEI and the M1-multipler. On the downtick: weekly jobless claims rose. Next week, holiday shortened by Monday’s Memorial Day, we get the second estimate for Q1 GDP, Personal income/spending and the Chicago PMI.

LONG TERM: bull market

The Cycle wave [1] bull market continues to unfold as expected. Primary waves I and II completed in 2011, and Primary III has been underway since then. When Primary III concludes we should get a multi-month 15% to 20% correction for Primary IV. Then another uptrend(s) to new highs completing Primary wave V and the bull market.


The two year Primary wave I unfolded in five Major waves with a subdividing Major wave 1. Primary II then took five months to unfold and the market lost 22% of its value. The current three year Primary wave III has also unfolded in five Major waves. But this time Major waves 3 and 5 subdivided. Major waves 1 and 2 completed in late-2011, and Major waves 3 and 4 completed in early-2014. Major wave 5 has been underway since that early-February low.


There is also a long term cycle low due this year: the four year Presidential cycle. Every four years this cycle low marks the low market price for the year. In recent cycles the month of July has marked the low, i.e. 2006 and 2010. Historically, however, July and October have had equal weight in marking the cycle low. Recent October lows occurred in 1998 and 2002. This year we may see a July high in price, and then an October cycle low.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

While many have been tracking a large potential diagonal in the SPX/DOW indices, and expecting a big decline. The count in the NDX/NAZ indices has suggested they are not done with Primary III just yet. We detailed our analysis on these two indices in last weekend’s update. This weekend we detail two potential patterns unfolding in the SPX/DOW. And, both generally point higher into the July/August summer months.

In each case we continue to count the February low as the end of Major wave 4 of Primary III. Since that low Major wave 5 has been underway. What has followed was an uptrend into early-April, a small downtrend into mid-April, and now another uptrend. Since both uptrends have been quite choppy, there are actually two ways of counting them.


The first count, which is much more bullish than the second, suggests an Int. wave one to SPX 1884, followed by an irregular zigzag to 1814 to end the correction. After the mid-April low we have a nesting pattern of 1-2-i-ii with wave iii underway now.


Here we count the entire Feb-Apr uptrend as an a-b-c Int. wave a, followed by an Int. wave b correction into mid-April. The current uptrend is also counted as a series of threes, which is typical of an ongoing a-b-c-d-e diagonal triangle. Notice the contracting trend lines that are forming. As noted above, regardless of the outcome both counts suggest higher highs for this uptrend. This will be followed by a correction, and then even higher highs, in another uptrend, to end Primary wave III.

Should the count posted on the SPX be the correct one, we should expect a Primary III high around SPX 2070. Should the count posted on the DOW be correct, the SPX should top around 1970 for Primary III. Medium term support is at the 1869 and 1841 pivots, with resistance at the 1901 and 1929 pivots.


Short term support is at SPX 1891 and the 1869 pivot, with resistance at the 1901 and 1929 pivots. Short term momentum ended the week quite overbought with a negative divergence. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the reversal level now SPX 1896.


Since we posted the hourly chart in the previous section we post the daily chart above. The NDX ended the week only 1.7% below its previous uptrend high. However, the NAZ is still 4.4% below its high and 5.6% below our projected NAZ 4420 uptrend target. Even if the NAZ outpaces the SPX two to one, in percentage terms, to reach its uptrend high. The SPX still needs to rise between 2.2% and 2.8% from Friday’s 1901 close. This projects a range of SPX 1943 to 1954 before the current uptrend ends. The next OEW pivot after 1929 is 1956.

If the SPX does top around the 1956 pivot, then the count posted on the DOW hourly chart is still in play, as the next correction would almost assuredly overlap the previous uptrend high at 1897. If the NDX/NAZ start surging, then the count posted on the SPX charts remains in play. It looks like we will reach an inflection point in the month of June. Best to your trading!


The Asian markets were mostly higher for a net gain of 0.8%.

The European markets were also mostly higher for a net gain of 1.5%.

The Commodity equity group were mixed for a net gain of 1.3%.

The DJ World index is still uptrending and gained 0.9% on the week.


Bonds continued their uptrend, but ended the week flat.

Crude (+2.2%) may be uptrending again as it continues its roller coaster ride above $90.

Gold (unch.) is still struggling to start a new uptrend. We think it will happen soon.

The USD looks like it has bottomed gaining 0.4% on the week.


Tuesday: Durable goods at 8:30, Case-Shiller and the FHFA housing index at 9am, then Consumer confidence at 10am. Thursday: Q1 GDP (est. -0.5%) and weekly Jobless claims at 8:30, then Pending home sales at 10am. Friday: Personal income/spending and PCE prices at 8:30, the Chicago PMI at 9:45, then Consumer sentiment at 9:55. The FED has nothing scheduled for the week. Best to your weekend and week!

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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108 Responses to weekend update

  1. CB says:

    Thanks for your thoughts , Tony!

  2. radrian6 says:

    Unless the index futures sell off overnight, I would expect a gap-up opening and upside continuation on Tuesday. For SPX, the low VIX is much less bothersome than its proximity to the weekly upper Bollinger Band. Closes above the weekly upper BB are rare and consecutive closes are even more so. Once SPX hits 1910 or so, expect the upside momentum to grind a bit or consolidate.

    RUT broke higher towards the end of last week and set up a run to key resistance at 1138-40. I expect a pullback from there but if buyers come in aggressively and RUT makes a higher low, it should break above 1140 then run up quickly to the next key resistance at 1158-63. RUT will likely stall at that point and maybe drop back to test 1140 support. Keep in mind that the RUT daily upper BB is near 1137 — in a strong trend, it can close above the upper BB for three consecutive days before backing off. Key support for RUT remains near 1093.

    Currently, the RVX (RUT volatility index) is at 17.69 which is high compared to the VIX. RUT was beaten down much more than SPX so the higher volatility index is understandable — there has been more hedging in the RUT. If the rally continues, keep an eye on RVX — if/when it reaches key support near 15, RUT is likely to stall and possibly reverse.

    Bottom line … the near term appears bullish unless sellers come back into the growth indexes and push them back down.

  3. torehund says:

    Interesting to read about Putin and his plans for the Lunar-Project expected to peak around 2040 @rt-news. He is probably hitting it With funding from nat gas sale to China. This is not what you would expect from a country With a broken back, and just easy glance at the Debth to GDP figures tells us all that the Russian Bears are now more lean and mean than ever before. Sure, commodities just cant get any cheaper for a prolonged time, and I think that Putin is counting on just that..This is constructive plans and not destructive. Also Exxon and others nailed important deals in a recent oil-Convention in Russia, so this boycott cant be more than skin deep…The recent Development in Ukraine is also on a positive note. Well, amrket has been trough a Sovereign debth crisis (light) and a mini Cold war episode in a very short time and market is still standing, impressive. Good Luck to all for the coming week.

    • dazzling01 says:

      If you are so good, why do you come here. Ask yourself in the mirror😉

      • budfox9450 says:

        You may wish to better, understand thy self…..
        OEW, is another view. Or, opinion. As for
        Tony C. He might enjoy more students ,oif OEW.
        Me, I can’t help anyone here, no strong skill set.
        At the moment, looking forward to a rad trip next
        week. Knowing the smart investor, has been in
        “protect financial agains mode, of the last 2-3 years.

  4. Pingback: Considerazioni sui mercati - Pagina 65 - I Forum di Investireoggi

  5. Thanks Tony, I like the update to the DOW count, series of 3’s toward 1929 (1921/22) SPX pivot IMO. Nothing to be too bullish about, despite what most think, after ~ 6 months, the DOW is up only 30 points this YEAR? Day traders market.

    More importantly- enjoy your Holiday

  6. Just FYI. This is free one month membership..Anything that is free is always welcome..In case if anyone of you want to join for a month…


    On the right side, just after NEW TO SITE

  7. michael sim says:

    Hi Tony,

    I know the Primary V of this 2009-20xx bull market is still far away..
    I can’t wait to ask you, is what happened last 2003-2007 bull market? Why was Primary V so short and looks like it did not finish Elliot Wave rule/counts to hit 2007 peak.

    Everyone’s analysis and comments are welcome🙂

    • tony caldaro says:

      If you mean the 2002-2007 PRI V bull market.
      It actually was much longer than PRI I 1974-1976.

      • michael sim says:

        Hi Tony,

        Oh, OK, got it.!🙂

        Got a followup question, still reg. 2002-2007 bull. PRI III was kinda short and weak. Was that valid under EW rules? and is that uncommon to happen? Still learning how to differentiate things:)

        ***Wave 3: Wave three is usually the largest and most powerful wave in a trend (although some research suggests that in commodity markets, wave five is the largest).

  8. lunker1 says:

    Here’s an update on a bullish Dow count I posted early Feb.
    Major 4 ended in October

    Using SPX numbers:
    INT 1 = 1849 = 203
    INT 2 = 1738
    INT 3 MINOR 1 = 1884
    INT 3 MINOR 2 = 1814

    so the targets I posted in the post below might just be for INT 3 and not for INT 5 (PRI III)
    so rounding them off here are PRI III targets

    INT 3 = 1950 = 212
    INT 4 = .382 X INT 3 = 1869
    INT 5 = .5 X INT 1 = 1971

    INT 3 = 2050 = 312
    INT 4 = .382 X INT 3 = 1931
    INT 5 = .618 X INT 1 = 2056

    INT 3 = 2150 = 412
    INT 4 = .236 X INT 3 = 2053
    INT 5 = INT 1 = 2256

    so it’s similar to the 1950/2050/2150 targets except with a higher top end.
    so with both counts call it 1950 – 2250.

    • thanks lurker, my targets from february still in play, with an ideal of 2043. pretty darn close to Tony’s 2070 IF SPX is they prevailing count. If not, the 1970 should do it. That’s till at least 70 more points of upside!

  9. Joel Wenger says:

    Reblogged this on The Safe Investing Blog and commented:
    Per Investors.com (IBD), a correction continues to grip the general markets. Seven of the S&P 500’s past eight gains have come on below-average trading volume, meaning that institutional investors haven’t supported the latest attempt at all-time highs.

    The short, intermediate, and long term Elliot Wave uptrends remain intact

    As always, let market action tell you what to do. Until then, a defensive stance is warranted.

  10. thanks for the update Tony! Up (long) till July, down (short) till October? Sounds like a good plan to me.🙂

    NDX broke out of the ascending triangle and DOW about too (reanalyzes of the charts showed triangle not violated as I thought it was earlier the past week): http://soulsurferusa.wordpress.com/2014/05/25/ndx-triangle-break-out-dow-almost-triangle-breakout/

    More importantly. Enjoy Memorial Day people. Thanks to the Tommies and Yanks my home-country -The Netherlands- got liberated from Nazi Germany 69 (!) years ago. Something I am eternally grateful for!! This is a good time to remember the absurdity, atrocities, and unmoral of those very dark times; and all the fallen who fought beyond-believe to end it all. It’s for me a weekend filled with one-movie-a-day:
    Friday: Saving Private Ryan
    Saturday: A Bridge too Far
    Sunday: Guns of Navarone
    Monday: Das Boot


    • aultraman says:

      How about the longest Day?

    • tony caldaro says:

      It certainly was a dark period in history.

    • simpleiam says:

      Happy Memorial Day, Soul! The kids and I are about to leave for a WW2 exhibition. I like your choice of films; almost nobody picks A Bridge Too Far. And Das Boot is a great one.

      Trivia: Did you know there are more German U-Boats at the bottom of The Gulf of Mexico than on the bottom of the entire Atlantic Ocean? This research is from TX A&M University, so being a Longhorn, I’m not sure how much I trust it, however, their Marine Programs are top notch.

      GL Soul and All Bloggers here this coming week. Simplify!

  11. ko68 says:

    Thanks Tony
    Any view at OSEBX NO please? The index is often leading and has ben pretty strong lately. Though its heavily overbought.

  12. budfox9450 says:

    Tony – the NY A/D line. Is that the way you
    want to leave the EW pattern view?

  13. John Arella says:

    2000 spx possible if dihttps://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=697829036953701&set=a.604043742998898.1073741847.100001798335434&type=1&theateragonal 5th

  14. blackjak100 says:

    Is the ED scenario I thought ended at 1902 dead? Not if B of V ended at 1862 as a double combination vs a triangle. However, the 2nd combination would have to be a rare running flat. If it was, we are currently in iii of c targeting 1906 (wave iii=wave i*1.618) which means we should expect sideways movement for Tues/Wed for wave iv before wave v final thrust. It still looks probable that the ED could end at the OEW 1929 pivot within the next 5-8 days. This aligns with Fiona’s great posts about volatility almost certainly increasing in the next couple weeks, yet allowing for more upwards movement per his post yesterday.

    Just a review of ED where all waves must be a-b-c

    wave i = 1626 -1851 (changed start from 1646 to 1626 which allows 1646-1851 to be seen as a 5 wave impulse instead of 3. Remember that was the only grey area)
    wave ii = 1851 – 1738
    wave iii = 1738 – 1897
    wave iv = 1897 – 1814
    wave v = 1814 – 1929 pivot??

    • simpleiam says:

      Thanks bj. I think sudden, increased volatility is possible Tuesday or Wednesday because of the suspected pathetic GDP # (now lowered to -0.7%). Am not removing the possible return to 1862 for a bounce, although I’m net long. Treacherous times here. GL! Simplify!

      • blackjak100 says:

        Break below 1886 is new line in sand. Will this current wave morph into a 5 near 1920ish or complete as a 3 near 1905ish? Whatever it turns out to be, there is limited upside left short term.

      • torehund says:

        M-sure there will be volatility, the spread of some shares is approching half a dollar and if someone wants in or out With some large chunks there certainly wil be hystreical movements. Bears and bulls are both 100 percent convinced, and then they fight. No-one can tell who will be a winner, same goes for gold as the stockmarket. We are now at the most pivotal point in time….

      • simpleiam says:

        tore says, “We are now at the most pivotal point in time….”

        Sure feels like it, tore. GL to You! Simplify!

    • budfox9450 says:

      An upswing is certainly possible,
      the SP BoYu is on a daily buy signal.
      The HGX index – also on a buy signal.
      Monthly SP BoYu is Neutral, in a flat
      signature. So, 1912, or 1929 are fair game.

  15. sloop says:

    Budfox,the Boyu indicator sounds quite fascinating,will you elaborate a bit on it please,like if it gives a buy signal what should one do,go long,nothing or go short.Thanks in advance.

    • budfox9450 says:

      Hello, the BoYu is a very unique indicator. It is not
      elliott wave, but it does make EW signatures. For
      example, 4/11 low was a W4 low in my work. Tony called
      it a “momentuem” indicator, when he saw it. The BoYu is
      ideal for Long Term investors. Yet, the daily. Can be used
      for short term trading – I do not favor that investment style.
      Ref SSO, the BoYu called the $30 low and has been Bullish
      ever since. However, the pattern of the BoYu signal line
      have moved from up, to now a sideways pattern. The BoYu
      is named after my very good chinese friend in Houston.
      In closing – I only invest in SSO/SDS. I also follow
      and invest in the FAGIX fund as well. In closing. the
      BoYu, provides the investment confidence, I need
      to make money for the long term accounts. Best to you…

    • budfox9450 says:

      reply to your question – it depends on the signal
      time frame – daily, weekly, or monthly. At major
      lows like Oct, 2011. The daily, would render a
      Buy signal 1st, then the weekly, and shortly thereafter
      the Monthly goes on a Buy signal….more, below.

  16. the total control roadmap for tuesday (with small cap spreadsheet and new stock picks):

  17. If we don’t get the big power surge day next week that I described below, it will increase the odds that the move from 1814 has been a b flat upwards corrective wave.

    • blackjak100 says:

      Agreed, I read all the bullish forecasts on here today but some forget the basic principle of EW. I think 100% would agree the move from 1862 is clearly 3 waves so far. Until it morphs into 5 up or 5 down (preferably 5 down to complete a 3-3-5 from 1902) you shouldn’t be long this market. Not saying you should be short either unless for trades.

      Odds say you should be long below 1862 for a run towards 1940-1970.

    • simpleiam says:

      Thank you both. On my watch list. Simplify!

  18. Pingback: Stock market analysis, Investor insights. Risk manangement and stock market risk model | The Risk-Reward Report

    • According to Fat Pitch, the % of household assets in stocks is now 34% > mean. But assets are now more concentrated in fewer households, so this number is only partially comparable to the figures in previous years. A median number for this measure would be interesting to see.

      • Increase in the mean tells you that the bin size is smaller, Less in the population… more of a slope in the chart… median is lower, even though smaller number in the population… If 34% increase is correct, then median has gone down so much that the next downtrend should wipe out A LOT (more than 50%?) of the population’s (all in the same lower class) investment…

        I am sure some of the people who hate Fed’s EZ $ policy would be begging for it to come back. There will be a lot of angry locals around…

        Oh yeah, the rich are already purchasing their armored cars… never mind then.

    • winslow80 says:

      The bulls (such as Paesano Caldaro) identify at which point they will call themselves wrong. This is known as “discipline”. The bears (as ukarlewitz has been for awhile) do not quantify risk. This is known as “recklessness”.

      At which point do the bearish analysts stop out and reevaluate? At 1925? At 2025? In the year 2525?

      ukarlewitz may belatedly be vindicated in his scholarly bearish analysis, but so far he has been hocking loogies into a strong headwind. Trading is not about being prophetic. It is about expansion of capital when you are right, and preservation of capital when you are wrong.

      Price is the only arbiter. Everything else is ultimately irrelevant. Analysts who don’t explicitly state at which point they will be wrong are just hucksters selling ShamWow!

      • lunker1 says:

        post of da year

      • simpleiam says:

        ++++++ Thank you winslow!

      • Lee X says:

        “Trading is not about being prophetic. It is about expansion of capital when you are right, and preservation of capital when you are wrong.”


      • Yes, I think it could be in the year 2525.

      • simpleiam says:

        Hi winslow and others. Before we leave the house for BBQ & swimming, I thought to remind All that the posters to which winslow is referring are not, in the technical sense, truly Bears. I know everyone knows this, but lest good traders take offense…

        Posters who are indicative of The Best of Bears, and back it up with TA and / or explanation are jedi and blackjack, when they’ve taken a bearish stance. Just want Bears to know that they are heard (at least by me), and aren’t being lumped in the same category with the hit-and-run Doomsdayers who accuse others of being immature and rude, while they do the same, unabated.


      • If there were no specific mention of BULL discipline and BEAR recklessness then as SIMPLAIM pointed out, it is ok.

        The question is expansion/preservation capital that is mentioned is when? Assuming someone bought at 1880, should he sell? Assuming someone SHORT at 1891 (me!!), should he cover? I can point 3 variables, which are saying market fall. Easy to say such things but difficult to implement. Also, discipline lets you survive few more years, nothing else.

        Everyone on this board is failure (in the sense no one made monies proportionate to efforts put).

        I have NOT seen any BEAR out of the market, but, many of my BULL friends are long gone out of the market. Some are still holding IT stocks, some Banking..All gone. Only PAIN has remained. Some with discipline survived 2000-IT scare but could not survive 2008. The clock is ticking….

        I am not BULL nor BEAR, it is just circumstances..

      • budfox9450 says:

        Well – IMHO, there are good traders, with excellent
        tools. Then, there are long term investors, who
        prefer to spend there time, at Fort De Stoto park, Florida vs
        watching a computer screen.

      • simpleiam says:

        SHIRIHAS says, “…Everyone on this board is failure (in the sense no one made monies proportionate to efforts put)….”

        Oh Really? How the hell would you know, and if this be the case, why would you want to hang out with Losers? It’s obvious that you DON’T get it, SHIRIHAS, but that’s okay. Please take a number and be seated, and don’t expect to be called. The chances of the traders here paying attention to anything you say is about the same as them paying attention to anything I might say…Which is ZERO! This is a good thing; their saving grace. Traders, ignore the cretin and carry on. You’re good people.


    • Fionamargaret, as always, you provide a wealth of information. Thank you for your posts, I always look forward to them.

  19. M1 says:

    Thanks, Tony
    Impresive week. But the NAZ correction still looks uncompleted,imo
    I am not going to adjust my scenarios yet.
    Gl and have a nice weekend.

    • budfox9450 says:

      Not, if it can exceed 4220.
      3/6 to 4/15 merely looks like
      a 3 wave correct. The BoYu
      has been on a Buy signal since
      4/15….and ideal target if 4415-4477.

  20. torehund says:

    Bulk: Nothing New other than bullish Outlook, NeXT week could be IT for the sector. Fits nicely With Shanghai index where the repetitive abc pattern seems to have gone towards total exhaustion.
    Free shipping accomplished a great debth deal and converted 37 mill to just 22 mill in warrants and shares🙂

    • torehund says:

      Paralysis of pessimism prevails (News are not apperciated anymore; even the good ones) as With Free.
      For those remembering the 80s, lets have some of that attitude back…And the ruts hessitant surprise rise says just that as the nailbiting sore agony has gone on for so long. What do other bloggers think, that lived in the 80s.

  21. winslow80 says:

    Double bottom followed by nominal .618 retest.
    Held 50 week ema three straight weeks.
    Supported at the weekly lower Bollinger band.
    There is now a “W” on the weekly MACD histogram, coming off a marginal oversold reading below minus five. The most recent such buy signals on the weekly RUT MACD histogram occurred during the weeks of 6/4/12, 11/19/12, and 2/10/14. Three good buying opportunities after which the small caps shone like Mike Tyson’s pretty gold tooth.
    Will past be prologue? Or is this alluring opportunity merely a cruel siren song?
    A print below 1082.53 and the bullish scenario disappears faster than Obama’s shovel-ready jobs.

  22. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony ~ Happy Memorial Day

  23. lunker1 says:

    SPY target 199

    Q’s target 99

    call it 2000/100

    • lunker1 says:

      extrapolating Tony’s SPX count:

      Minimum Target
      Int 1 = 146 = 1884
      Int 2 = 70 (1814)
      Int 3 = .62 x Int 1 = 91 = 1905
      Int 4 = .24 x Int 3 = 1884+
      Int 5 = .5 x Int 1 = 1957

      Medium Target
      Int 1 = 146
      Int 2 = 70 (1814)
      Int 3 = Int 1 = 146 = 1960
      Int 4 = .38 x Int 3 = 1905
      Int 5 = .62 x Int 1 = 2052

      Upper Target
      Int 1 = 146
      Int 2 = 70 (1814)
      Int 3 = 1.62 x Int 1 = 146 = 2050
      Int 4 = .24 x Int 3 = 2016
      Int 5 = Int 1 = 2162

      • valunvstr says:

        I love how the counts are now getting so aggressive. The wedge on the SPX had 1925 this week and 1930-35 the following week. Buy, hey, keep calling for more bullish numbers. And then confirm a downtrend at 1870. That’s good investing.

      • lunker1 says:

        Valu, not sure if you’re being sarcastic or not but forecasting anything is the same process of monitor and adjust to the real conditions. today the weatherman may say it’s supposed to be a sunny week but if the winds change then yes rain could come. no sense staring out the window at the clouds on the horizon upset that a few days ago he said it would be sunny. nothing is static. the world is constantly changing.

      • simpleiam says:

        I like the way you give Minimum, Medium and Upper Target levels, lunker. Any good trader would note the Minimum targets as requiring the most immediate attention.

      • tony caldaro says:

        nice numbers, thx Lunker

  24. bhupal777 says:

    Thanks Tony. Happy Memorial day weekend. October low perfectly works for me as I have January PUT options on most of the stocks that are showing weak chart patterns. In fact on a strong day like Friday these week stocks didn’t move much at all.

  25. bouraq says:

    Weekend charts:
    #SPX #DOW #FTSE #RUT #AUDUSD #EURUSD #TBT #OIL http://www.tradingchannels.co.uk/2014/05/weekend-charts_24.html

  26. simpleiam says:

    Excellent WEU, Tony! Thanks and have a great Memorial Day Holiday!

  27. mjtplayer says:

    Great analysis Tony, as usual.

    – Bon long weekend!

  28. blackjak100 says:

    Hi Jedi-

    Do you have any targets for AAPL with this uptrend? I know you posted a cup & handle pattern last night. I’m targeting $625-$627 as $625 is the 161.8% extension of the decline from $575-$493. As the Fib queen always points out, this a spot where reversals or at least 5%+ pullbacks occur. From an EW perspective if my count is right, this current wave v could end at $627 = .618* wave iii. Let’s see if MACD still continues to display -div for the last $10-$12 higher.

  29. torehund says:

    Thanks Tony.
    Market has been runing itself into a corner as shown by Your 2 Count options.
    Due to light volume and emormous spread in most stocks there wil still be huge swings. That happens when both the bear and the bull is triggered to the max, and the fight will reflect this by increasing volatility.

    • Been a great market for option sellers the last couple of months, especially call sellers, since things are drifting higher but not very much. Not so much for buyers. Churn baby churn,,,

      Sellers will have their turn to bat sometime.

  30. blackjak100 says:

    Thanks Tony! I now agree the $SPX can go to 1940-1970 assuming we break 1902. However, I think odds favor a lower low below 1862 first. The key overlap of 1867 with a low of 1862 is the big clue assuming my count is correct. It looks like this could be nothing more than an a-b-c flat correction from 1902 with the c wave down to come. This scenario should yield a top Tues AM around 1905ish. Less likely now is that we completed a very deep wave ii on Friday.

  31. We need to see an all-around power day with the major indexes posting gains of 1% to 2% and with an A-D line plurality of at least +1500 and preferably approaching +2000. Last Wednesday’s (5-21) performance was not strong enough to qualify as a convincing impulse day. The Summation Index is starting to make a run again after creating 4 consecutive inflection points. With a strong kickoff day and good follow-up A-D days, it can chart some breakaway gaps and surpass it’s immediate preceding high of 850 and rise towards the 1000 area.

  32. llerias7 says:

    Impressive EW/OEW update, Tony!
    Many thanks for helping to navigate in this complex market.

    As far I understood for SPX we should expect a move up to conclude Int.III of P3 near 1950, and then a countertrend before a final climb to either 1970 or 2070. And Nasdaq should rally stronger.

  33. Thanks, Tony, for yet another intelligent weekend analysis. Enjoy your long weekend. Happy weekend to the rest of the bloggers, too!

  34. rolandu11 says:

    The price and also my indicators had improved again. The OEX has made a new all-time high. The techs look good and the situation seems to be improving even with the small caps. Let’s see how it goes.

  35. mharrison60 says:

    Thanks Tony for the update on the wave counts. Any reason from this to change current FTSE top target of 6930?

    Have a great weekend!

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