friday update

SHORT TERM: market approaches new highs, DOW +63

Last night the FED released the following:  Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.8%. Europe opened lower but gained 0.2%. US index futures were higher overnight. The market opened two points above yesterday’s SPX 1892 close, and continued to rise. Throughout the day the climb continued until the market hit SPX 1901 and closed there.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.40%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.75%. Bonds gained 6 ticks, Crude added 60 cents, Gold slipped $2, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1869 and 1841 pivots, with resistance at the 1901 and 1929 pivots. Last night the FED reported an increase in the M1-multiplier: 0.712 v 0.708. Today the WLEI was reported higher: 55.0% v 54.9%.

The market opened higher today and just kept on rising with only 2 point pullbacks along the way. This would have been impressive if it was not a Friday before a three day weekend. Nevertheless, the SPX came within one point of its all time high. And, the much maligned and short sellers favorite NDX confirmed an uptrend. The only one of the four major indices not in a confirmed uptrend is the NAZ. And, that should occur next week. We will be detailing two potential Major wave 5 counts this weekend. Both have been posted on the SPX/DOW charts for a few days now.

Short term support is at SPX 1891 and the 1869 pivot, with resistance at the 1901 and 1929 pivots. Short term momentum turned higher after yesterday’s dip and ended the week quite overbought. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the reversal level now SPX 1896. Best to your three day weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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51 Responses to friday update

  1. winslow80 says:

    Friday evening insights from some of my favorite stock market strategists:

    He who is prudent and lies in wait for an enemy who is not will be victorious. Sun Tzu

    Whosoever desires constant success must change his conduct with the times. Niccolo Machiavelli

    It is even better to act quickly and err than to hesitate until the time of action is past. Carl von Clausewitz

    Success depends upon previous preparation, and without such preparation there is sure to be failure. Confucius

    Do not be anxious about tomorrow, for tomorrow will be anxious for itself. Let the day’s own trouble be sufficient for the day. Jesus Christ

    It is better to conquer yourself than to win a thousand battles. Then the victory is yours. It cannot be taken from you, not by angels or by demons, heaven or hell. Buddha

  2. Every time I look at this chart, I say out loud, “Good grief! Look at that melt-up within the highest, tippy-top trendline.” Amazing. Especially with employment at 6.5% and GDP < 3% during this entire run. QE — the market's heroin.
    SPX MONTHLY:$SPX&p=M&st=1999-01-01&en=(today)&id=p04078160810&a=315140600&listNum=7
    SPX WEEKLY:$SPX&p=M&st=1980-01-01&en=(today)&id=p06351701823&a=339006802&listNum=7

  3. lunker1 says:

    SPY target 199

    Q’s target 99

    call it 2000/100

  4. simpleiam says:

    Cramer talking about lots of short-covering today. Makes next week’s forecast even MORE interesting! Simplify!

    • torehund says:

      Cramer is one of the most intense pundits around and responsible for the manipulative scam that ripped of 1000 of shareholders in DNDN when a barking dow pluss some ill and untrue utters tanked the Stock from 22 usd to 11 in a couuple of minutes.
      Its a conclomerate of News media that trough propaganda drives Stock in one direction,mostly Down. The Street is the worst, followed by”objeckive sites” Seeking alpha.
      Its a site I wil dear read when I gel my Ahlzheimer. Its a site stealing from the common man, and thats not very Rodinhoodish. For others it may just be fun watching, but costl as Your sentiment wil be colorad by it, inadvertently. M Armstrong and this blog is a much better combo.

      • torehund says:

        type error, not barking dow but a barking ((at the moment apparently a mad DOG), plus crying Children an tin cans crashing.

      • simpleiam says:

        Hi tore. Not to worry, I don’t color easily and consider Cramer to be a ‘cheerleader’ for unknown purposes. Simplify!

      • I would like to hear more explanation about your sentiment towards Seeking Alpha. It seems to have a very open model concerning what opinions can be expressed.

      • torehund says:

        Georg, initially I thought that Seeking Alpha was an arena for independent thinking, However it has gradually become tilted towards small articles that serves a certain purpose. Not all articles are made that way, but…Recent example is articles on Dry bulk and their recent earnings. Unbalanced views that strongly tilts sentiment in just one direction.
        These days a higher concentration of good articles are to be found at

  5. bhupal777 says:

    Tony. Great call on the markets with the aid of your master analysis on NAZ index pattern. Kudos. Have a Great Memorial day.

  6. For AAPL watchers … AAPL at resistance, but pattern is cup-with-handle and COMPQ jumped over resistance. It’s bullish until it’s not.

  7. “This would have been impressive if it was not a Friday before a three day weekend”.
    I think that the Friday before a 3 day weekend can just as easily be a reason for traders to sell because 3 days is a long time to be exposed to possible bad news without a chance to exit the market.

  8. simpleiam says:

    Our fathers bled at Valley Forge, the snow was red with blood
    Their faith was worn at Valley Forge,
    Their faith was brotherhood.
    Wasn’t that a time, wasn’t that a time?
    A time to try the soul of men,
    Wasn’t that a terrible time?
    Brave men who fought at Gettysburg now lie in soldier’s graves
    But there they stemmed the rebel tide
    And there their faith was saved
    Wasn’t that a time, wasn’t that a time?
    A time to try the soul of men,
    wasn’t that a terrible time?
    The wars are long, the peace is frail, the madmen come again.
    There is no freedom in a land where fear and hate prevail.
    Isn’t this a time, isn’t this a time?
    A time to try the soul of men,
    Isn’t this a terrible time?
    Our fathers bled at Valley Forge, the snow was red with blood
    Their faith was worn at Valley Forge,
    Their faith was brotherhood.
    Wasn’t that a time, wasn’t that a time?
    A time to try the soul of men,
    Wasn’t that a terrible time?

  9. thanks for the update tony! all systems in buy (just look at NFLX… can we say 3 rd wave!?!); MACD gave buy-cross on daily today, the daily AI gave a buy-signal earlier this week, daily RSI5 not even at OB levels. Weekly RSI5 is getting there. Don’t see a reason to expect a crash-type move soon (that happens from already OS…)

    only eye-soar: TWTR…

  10. Kisshu2 says:

    thanks Tony enjoy some sunshine too

  11. radrian6 says:

    So, what do we have here? VIX at 11.36; SPX pushing on its daily upper Bollinger Band and 11 points below its weekly upper BB; daily MACD weak and daily RSI (5) lagging; seasonal volatility trough in effect from late May to late June … seems like a great time to chase the rabbit! Of course, the holidays tend to be bullish and the bears have been forced into some short covering but honestly, do you think the smart money is buying this market with conviction?

    • radrian6 says:

      Shut up and analyze the RUT! Okay … support remains at the recent low of 1082.53 although there may be some support near 1114. The 38% Fib retracement level is near 1132 along with the 13-week EMA. Strong chart resistance near 1137 along with the daily upper BB. 50% Fib near 1148 along with the weekly BB midline. Finally, there’s strong resistance at 1158-63 along with the 61.8% Fib. I’m sure the RUT will go blasting through all of that next week and make a new high.

      Have a good weekend.

      • rad, are you starting to answer your own questions?!? Talking to yourself is one thing, but answer yourself is a who different level… 😉

      • ocaj2000 says:


        Re: .I’m sure the RUT will go blasting through all of that next week and make a new high.

        Are you being sarcastic in this statement or do you mean it ? I’m only asking because I
        respect your opionion and am not sure how to interpret this.


      • radrian6 says:

        Thanks for the feedback, Soul … I’ll consider some therapy. Tommyboys … I can’t debate “beaten down micros” but the SPX is in close proximity to its weekly upper BB so maybe it can grind out 10-15 points per week for a few weeks before it sells off. Look at a weekly chart and take note of the recent interactions between SPX and it weekly upper BB.

      • radrian6 says:

        Sorry ocaj2000 … I was being sarcastic or ironic or whatever.

        I really don’t know what the RUT is going to do next week. It may continue this low volatility grind for a while longer but there is some very strong resistance near 1138 and again at 1158-63. If RUT manages to get through those areas, maybe it can mange the right shoulder of an H&S top — the ideal right shoulder would be 1182. RUT is a long way from a new high — it would need to push past 1213 and it seems unlikely given the technical and seasonal factors.

      • ocaj2000 says:

        Thanks Rad. I thought you were being sarcastic but was not sure.

      • “I’m sure the RUT will go blasting through all of that next week and make a new high.”

        ocaj2000: I think Radrian just forgot to include the word “not” before “sure”.

      • torehund says:

        Good weekend to all, bulls, bears and Tony for running an excellent blog.
        Emotional times, keep Your focus.
        If Things pan out, there could be bargains of the Century to be bought right now.

      • pooch77 says:

        Your funny Rad,but I like your 1158-63 by June opex

    • tommyboys says:

      Smart money could easily buying many if the beaten down micros. Seeing some nice moves on relative volume in that arena. Happy weekend to all – thx Tony

    • Looking forward to Saturdays update. Tony, You mention the bull market ending at the end of the year unless we have a greater then 20 percent correction, then it can extend a few more years. The 1600 level on the sp seems to be a popular number for a primary 4 low, which fits into your 2000 ish primary 3 drop 20 percent there you have 1600. My question is do you still see this bull market ending this year. If so, looks like we will see a lot of fire works over the next 7 months. Up approx 100 down 400 up 500 all in 7 months.

      Again thanks for all you do, enjoy your holiday.

      • tony caldaro says:

        It looks like RED October may be on a seek and destroy mission.
        This time with Putin at the helm.
        If it is sabotaged bull market ends this year.
        If not we could extend a few more years.
        The worse it gets the longer the bull market lasts.

    • pcskier says:

      When you look at the big macro picture we need a growing global economy to pay service interest on debt. The only way the global economy can grow is by creating more debt. The bank of international settlement(bank for central bank) reported this past march that between 2007 and 2013 the globe added 30 trillion in new debt ( 70 trillion to 100 trillion) an increase of 40%. In the USA this equated to 2% annual GDP growth. Global QE has fueled this debt growth, with recent record junk offering in Europe. I am not sure if eu will partake in future QE. We will defiantly get more taper in June and July here. I don’t see what the fuel is for future global growth. If you look at $tnx the 20 weekly average dipped under its 50 weekly average. The bond market appears to be pricing in future deflation. Stocks will follow eventually.

  12. Great job, Tony! May you eat, drink and be merry this weekend.
    -OEW Coffee Club Member

  13. simpleiam says:

    Thanks Tony! Celebrate Memorial Day, and never forget the blood that was shed for our freedom. Simplify!

  14. rc1269 says:

    thanks Tony enjoy the long weekend

Comments are closed.