thursday update

SHORT TERM: rally continues, DOW +10

Overnight the Asian markets gained 1.0%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.1%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported higher: 326k v 297k. The market opened one point higher than yesterday’s SPX 1888 close. It then dipped to SPX 1885 before resuming the rally. At 10am Leading indicators were reported higher: +0.4% v +0.8%, and Existing home sales were higher too: 4.65mn v 4.59mn. The rally continued until 11:30 when the SPX hit 1896. Then after a pullback to SPX 1893 by 1pm, the market hit 1896 again at 3pm. Heading into the close the market dipped to SPX 1892 and closed there.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.15%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.50%. Bonds lost 5 ticks, Crude slipped 25 cents, Gold rose $3, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1869 and 1841 pivots, with resistance at the 1901 and 1929 pivots. Tomorrow: New home sales at 10am.

The market opened slightly higher today, dipped, and then rose above short term resistance at SPX 1891. When it did we upgraded the Minute ii label to dark green, from tentative green, at SPX 1862. The uptrend should now in be Minute wave iii. Or, as illustrated on our DOW alternate #1 count: Minor wave C. Both counts suggest the market should make new highs soon. How far these highs go will depend on how high the NDX/NAZ can carry the SPX/DOW. For now we will just take it one pivot at a time.

Short term support is at SPX 1891 and the 1869 pivot, with resistance at the 1901 and 1929 pivots. Short term momentum displayed a slight negative divergence at today’s high, then declined. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the reversal level now SPX 1890. Best to your trading before the holiday weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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145 Responses to thursday update

  1. rc1269 says:

    boy i didn’t check the blog for a few hours and look at all the fun i miss

  2. Hi tony
    Nifty hit 7563 last week
    What’s your view… Is the Bear market rally over?

  3. That is another SHORT opened at 1899.6, That takes average at 1891.1 medium quantity.

    To ensure that I spend sleepless night, have also SHORTED emerging Market indices..

    Not sure when I will go in cave, it could be in next few seconds as well!!!

  4. 16golfer says:

    Well it looks like the market will close with warm fuzzy feelings going into another holiday weekend. Will we get fireworks in the market along with our 4th of July celebration? Tony and I might just as well celebrate our birthdays along with the fire works too….lol

  5. CygnetNoir says:

    “Only those that think that way, believe all others think that way too.” True story, Tony, every word of it. For myself, with respect to the internet, I have vowed that if I don’t have anything nice to say, I won’t say anything at all – I’ll let Lee say it for me🙂 For the life of me, I don’t know how it is that almost right from the start you’ve managed to attract a steady stream of cranks to your blog. I am thankful for the handful of good fellas and good gals who’ve stumbled upon you and stuck around in spite of the negative spirit of some.

    At any rate, I ended last week slightly net long. Started this week by closing my shorts and going all-in long. Today I closed some longs and bought SPY June 20 puts as a hedge. Sure looks to me as though the correction is over and higher highs are ahead of us, But the only thing of which I am certain is the one thing too few here recognize, and that is that nothing is certain when it comes to the markets.

    Finally, I found this posted somewhere, and I thought I’d share it here:

    “If someone form the 1950’s suddenly appeared today, what would be the most difficult thing to explain to them about cotemporary life? That I possess a device, in my pocket, that is capable of accessing the entirety of information know to humanity. I use it to look at pictures of cats and to get in arguments with strangers.”

    Ponder that one, y’all, and let us all remember what we are supposed to remember on this Memorial Day. Many brave and wonderful people gave all or risked all so that we might freely get into arguments with strangers over the internet while downloading pictures of cats.

    God Bless.

    • tony caldaro says:

      Everyone who visits this blog, visits for a reason.
      Either currently known, or to be known in the future.
      The homo sapien sapien is about 75,000 years old.
      Compared to the Earth’s 4.5bn years, our species is still in diapers.
      As such we are still mostly fascinated by pictures, bright lights, and interesting noises.
      It matters not, to most, that the entire collective of human knowledge is at their fingertips.
      They mostly want to be entertained, not educated.

    • 7dayyss says:

      I suspect a semi regular here links OEW on another site out of good, but that site seems to attract a lot of the rabble-rousers, Zerohedge mentality. I ‘m biased stating that a lot of them seem very negative on life/humankind, even to the extent of seeing a depression again with all that it entails. Seems some of them are bringing the misery here. Want to ruin any fellowship they run across. Of course, I could be imagining it also!

      • tony caldaro says:

        and then again you may not be imagining

      • It always amazes me how many thrive and frolic from other people’s misery. From a market perspective: 2009 was VERY scary and why would we ever want to return to a situation like that? The destruction that crash caused no moral person can wish for again (yet many can’t wait for an even bigger crash; e.g. counting it as “only” an A-wave…).

        • tony caldaro says:

          In late 2008 the market hit its most oversold condition since the early 1930’s.
          Why anyone would think a once in a lifetime event could be repeated is a mystery.

      • simpleiam says:


    • Lee X says:

      Haaa Thanks C N !

  6. pbnj123 says:

    OMG Tony – dude I love what you just said to Lee – that made my day – weeds😉

    Going to drink a lot of old soda’s this weekend in honor to my fellow veterans – God speed to many and I’m thankful to still have many back.

    It’s nice to see the slow grind up to stay inside the BB on both the S&P up and the VIX down
    NYMO behaving as well

    Have a great weekend all

  7. a question to ponder . equity funds seeing out flows, most pro money managers are calling for some sort of correction , sentiment of it being a hated rally How are we at new highs and with so much concern why is VOL at all time lows? what and whose programs are driving the trade?

    • tony caldaro says:

      Most of the high paid fund managers underperformed the market last year.
      This year will probably be no different.
      Even Buffet had his first underperformance in 50 years.

      • Caldaro if you can answer this one question honestly. Do you not believe the FED has programs to goose the markets? do you not believe they are in there buying equities? you think this is money managers who underperform? David Tepper said he was nervous? you really believe this is fair game and the stock market reflects the economy?

        • tony caldaro says:

          The FED has the so called PPT, but rarely uses it in bull markets.
          Buying equities? No.
          Yes, indeed it was well documented they underperformed in 2013.
          We all get nervous from time to time =)
          The stock market reflects “investor” psychology.
          The stock market has projected 10 of the last 5 recessions.
          In other words, stocks and the economy are similar indicators but not the same.

      • Caldaro enjoy your weekend. You are a class act sir. My views differ from many on this blog. Good luck to you . I have enjoyed my time here., Other than tommyboy I happen to respect and like all your viewers. Much succuess sir

    • John Arella says:

      It might make a slight new high but the top channel since 2000 will hold it to a few points on the SPX index. Max +5 spx points from the high 0f 1902.

  8. uncle10 says:

    Thanks Tony.
    We are fortunate and blessed to have had and have now people willing to die for us.
    Have a great Memorial Day weekend everyone.

    • tony caldaro says:

      We all should do our part for each other

      • Kevin M says:

        While that sounds noble, the human race is always out for #1. It’s sad but true. Anybody that doesn’t agree with me on this is in denial about your fellow man.

      • I agree Tony, But you can see the soul is trying to peak through and say “it is sad humans are that way”… Kevin, listen to that sound and ignore what you’ve been told by “unaware teachers”, and see how deep the rabbit hole goes…

      • Kevin M says:

        Ok Tony….I’ll say this, have you watched the news lately? My case in point. You can’t deny that. Humans are fakes and liars. That’s the majority. The minority that don’t act like the majority get screwed over and over again. Welcome to Earth where darwins theory (survival of the fittest) is in full swing. Isn’t trading all about this as well?

        Denial is ok if you don’t get hurt by it. What’s the saying? Fool me once shame on you but fool me twice shame on me.

        I’m out for the weekend take care and have a good one

      • tony caldaro says:

        Lee, have to delete that one

      • 16golfer says:

        Yes and you are a great example of that Tony! Thank you. True happiness & pleasure comes from serving….not being served. Unfortunately we are all born with a selfish bent and struggle with it in our life. Dying to self is not something that comes naturally. Have a blessed weekend and be safe. Will cut the grass this weekend so I can’t be blamed for tanking the markets next week1

        • tony caldaro says:

          Agree, two years olds only know about me, me, and me.
          When they mature mentally to the point that they realize they are part of the world, but also individuals.
          And that they have a choice. Their favorite words become no, and mine.
          Some never outgrow that surprise.
          Cutting grass on weekend’s too. The market will tank us for that😉

    • Kevin M says:

      O one more thing….I guess everybody is ok with Lee saying I’m a douche bag…..Right? But the moment I defend myself I’m the one who is immature and childish right?

      This is exactly what I am talking about Tony. The Human Race case in point LEE. Thanks Lee for providing evidence to the contrary.


      • Lee X says:

        I stand by my comments whether they get deleted or not 1000%
        You come on here guns blazing and u get a little push back and u cry like a little baby.
        Keep working on those pair we talked about🙂

      • tony caldaro says:

        two wrongs do not make a right, deleted Lee’s post
        Most people just want to raise their families and live a comfortable quiet life.
        Those that think that is too boring seek: money, power and then control.
        Most politicians and corporate heads fit into the latter category.
        So it is easy to be misguided by most of our leaders.
        Fortunately, that mindset is on the decline.

      • Kevin M says:

        Well Lee I’m Not like you, so I”m not going to participate in your childish behavior. You’re the majority I try to stay away from.

        This is the last time I will address you or anything having to do with you. You are on IGNORE in my mind. You don’t exist

        Have a good weekend or whatever……

      • Lee X says:

        Well alrighty then , have fun with that

      • simpleiam says:

        Kevin, from one douche bag to another, please go start your own blog and LEAVE US ALONE! Tony already has his hands full with me, but at least I try to be encouraging to some that don’t hold my personal mkt opinion. You, on the other hand, bad-mouth Tony and anyone who refuses to take your stance. You’re not defending yourself when YOU start the attack by the comments you make. Wa, WA, WAHHHH! You turn Cry-Baby when someone calls you on it, “I’m defending myself!”; utter hogwash! There might be a few people who find you encouraging, but about 95% of us do not.

        Start your own blog somewhere else!

      • darn it.. I missed what Lee said.. bag of weeds and something balls from diaper rash?

        Have a good weekend all!

  9. i am not one to post trades but I am going long VXX 34.98. my thoughts are when this trades unwinds on the FED for supressing the vix there is going to be hell to pay. Good weekend to all enjoy your family

    • Notice the weekly chart on XIV. It’s at trend line resistance from 2-22-13, and the weekly candle has significantly pierced the upper BB. Also a slight neg div on Daily and significant neg div on hourly. Hence, VXX is a good trade here IMO.

  10. llerias7 says:

    About GREK, started an intermediate III of major 5, right Tony?

    Many thanks.

  11. llerias7 says:

    ^RUT breaks UP the descending channel! Probably a true BreakUp helping SPX ATH…

  12. scorp100 says:

    Namaste Tony. Do you think bottom is in for GREK?

  13. simpleiam says:

    Someone posted earlier this week that 1898 would likely be the high for this week. If I have a chance, I go back and do a search to try and find the post, but just wanted to say, Good Call thus far! At the end of the day, you’ll likely be right! Simplify!

  14. Trend trading, people… trend trading… Cramer talked about how dumb algos are for now, but that will be over a couple of years, then game over!

    Fork it, channel it, Pivot it, and OEW it.

  15. magicianme says:

    It’s a low volume, slow crawl up lacking in momentum, quite unlike the last time we made an ATH. Take care out there, folk!

  16. blackjak100 says:

    Thanks Fiona for the excellent insight. I think followers are starting to realize the educational info of your posts.

    From an EW perspective, it aligns with your VIX scenario. A move above 1902 will be short lived and would have to be counted 3-3-5 with a c wave down to come from 1910ish. Otherwise, 1902 holds and we head down.

    There will be a lower low than 1862 in the next 3 weeks no matter how you slice it

  17. John Arella says:

    My long term Count of DJIA since 1900.

  18. In my personal view, volume is the key to decipher present market action.
    Volume in Dow was at an extreme low for the year yesterday. About half the normal size.
    This tells me that institutional buyers are not here anymore.
    The “breakout” in Nasdaq was also a low volume one.
    Low volume in combination with VIX at extreme low makes me turn the back to the market right now.

    • Low volume has been the signature of this entire bull market since Mar. 2009. Having said that, I wouldn’t mind seeing a high-volume breakout either.

      • simpleiam says:

        Thank you, George! Very true. Simplify!

      • My take on volume, when it is low vol day, it seems the trend continues…

        It gets confusing when the volume picks up, not sure if they are confusing by changing hands, or they really mean it… That is why I use the trend/fork/pivot/OEW… but then I will pay attention if volume picks up, and then draw the famous Triangle.

    • 16golfer says:

      Sverker….what about the volume in the “dark pools”?

    • It appears there are many possibilities out there. On the down side. We have a possible head and shoulders, an abc pattern were a is finishing then b down and c to new highs, an ending diagonal, and Tony’s count of being in int 3 of major 5 of primary 3. My question to anyone is, is the ending diagonal the most dangerous wave count to the down side vs the other possibilities.

    • simpleiam says:

      And volumes in ETF’s? Are you counting that?

  19. fionamargaret says:

    Hope everyone enjoys their long weekend – be safe.

    • simpleiam says:

      Thanks F! A great weekend to you as well.

    • magicianme says:

      fionamargaret, thanks for all your great posts. Posts like yours, and from a few others, are a welcome break from some of the juvenile drivel.

      I’d like to comment on this article about volume. I’ve been studying volume for years and have read all the major works from the likes of Wycoff, Tom Williams and Dormier. I’ve never applied it to stocks as I’m concerned only with ETFs.

      This author makes valid points about caution when reading volume on holidays, opex days etc. However, what Tom fails to mention is

      1. that high volume can also signify a top, not just a bottom

      2. that volume is not read on its own (as previously mentioned authors have made very clear). Volume needs to read together with price and range. So a high volume day with a low range – i.e. a high churn day – is a lot more significant because of that compressed range. In a post yesterday I called a reversal from the day’s high based on high churn M5 bars at the top (which were then followed by a classic “railroad track” pattern)

      3. on the S&P futures there’s another useful input to be read together with volume, price and range, and that is average contract size. Despite order splitting by dealers, average trade size is often a big giveaway and most volume theorists seem to have completely overlooked this! Average trade size, when properly analysed, tells you which way the “professional” money is betting.

      There is also a caveat that it would have been worth mentioning. Tick volume is not the same as contract volume and there’s a danger is reading tick volume – the kind you’d get on many platforms like Metatrader, and what you’d get with some data providers/markets – as a proxy for contract volume. Tick volume is a measure of volatility in a price bar and not a measure of investor commitment.

      • Hi Magicianme! Thanks for all your very spot on comments. Do you have any experience with the Hawkeye trading system? It is solely based on volume analysis, and I wonder if it is accurate enough?
        Best wishes sverker

      • magicianme says:

        Thanks, Tony.

        sverker, no that’s too “black box” for me. On one of their pages they say, “Using this tool will stop you from having ‘opinions’ on market direction and allow you to take control of your trading.”

        If I don’t have an opinion on market direction it’s NOT me in control of my trading!

      • VERY interesting, GREAT read! But, to compare different time-frames, would it not be better to multiply volume with price to get the total amount of $s going through the market each particular day. In that way the metric is equal.

        Namely, when we say SPXa 3.0B volume at SPX ($)1,200 = $3.4T, is the same as a ~1.9B volume at SPX ($1,900) : 3 X 1200 = 1.9 X 1900.

      • sorry, somehow my reply got posted prematurely… Here’s the rest:

        Namely, when we say on a particular day that the SPX is at 1850, what that means is that the value of the SPX is $1,850 (and a few cents). When multiplied by that same day’s volume, we get the total amount of $$$s spend in the SPX for that day.

        So let’s compare when the SPX was trading at ~$1,200 late 2011-2012 compared to today (~1900). I don’t have the daily volume for back then, but let’s assume it was 3B (based on weekly volume / 5 trading days per week).
        That means 3B x $1,200 = $3.6T.
        Currently, SPX trades on a volume of ~2B per day.
        That means 2B X $1,900 = $3.8T.
        Hence, even if volume is 1B less (33%!!!) the total amount of dollars going through the market each day is actually even higher.

        Now we have a fair and equal metric which shows that all market participants combined are still willing to spend the same, or even more!, money at market-values ~60% higher than 2-3 yrs ago.

  20. Lee X says:

    Thanks gto , uncle and surfingwavers I will certainly enjoy the holiday.
    Thanks Tony and everyone else, have a great holiday weekend !

  21. fishonhook says:

    Kudos to Tony. He may have lost the count some time ago and keeps revising and revising but at least he has kept saying the trend is still up and so far he has been right.

  22. Great numbers from HPQ missing by 7 % rev and now laying off 34,000 people. I guess they did not get the memo we are in a major recovery and the S&P is at all time highs. Must have been the weather

    • I am so happy I spent 40k a year to send my son to College so he can graduate and open an online account make 5k a month and tell me he does not need a job because the goverment wants him to buy stocks. LOL.

      • torehund says:

        Truht I perceive stocktrading as a job, and proficiency also reflects the effort that one puts in from studies during a prolonged period. If trading doesnt feel like a real job, gains will then suffer porpotionally.

      • Stock trading is a job I agree when you do it for a living. Problem is the fed has made a lot of people think they are smarter than they are

      • tommyboys says:

        Ahh…so its not that he can’t find work its that he chooses not to – yes the internet – fed fed fed – gotta blame someone. Fed fed fed…

  23. simpleiam says:

    Grrrrrrreat Call, Tony!

  24. torehund says:

    Bulk update:Looking at individual shares and the BDI-index together, I believe we are entering a wave 3,( that based on the length of wave one and two) will last for minimum a full year. Most bulk Stocks act like “leadbags” right now, but thats how beginning of wave 3 and for some end of wave 2 looks like.

  25. makiori says:

    on psychology of the markets and whether a top can happen when the bears abound or a bottom with the majority of bulls :
    of course it can happen, its called tipping point. and it bows down not only to the numbers of bulls or bears, but also, among many other factors, on how those macro groups have deployed their capital until the tipping point.
    If we have 100 market participants and let’s say 70 of those turn bearish today and have not used any significant leverage to express their stance, while the 30 bulls have just got into the market with a very high leverage, the market can tip south at any time even with the majority of participant being bearish. Likewise a bottom can happen in the symmetrical situation.
    I am not calling anything and my numerical example are just given to make a point and not to represent the current state of affairs.

  26. Kevin M says:

    I don’t know why people aren’t paying attention to the YEN? It’s the key to where the market goes from here. Look it up, match it behind the SPX and see what you find.

    Pigs do get slaughtered, remember that. I know people hate to hear the opposite of their frantic nature.

    Will the SPX make a high above 1902? Who cares….The risk is still to the downside folks. Why risk it for a possible 1% upside to a possible 5-8% downside? It doesn’t make sense. If the SPX is close to 1900 by the end of June, then I’m on board to the 2000 SPX by July/Aug.

    Something else here to think about. The $VIX hit the lows of last year TODAY. You bulls think 2000 comes from a $VIX at these levels? Seriously?

    Think then trade NOT trade and trade

    • correlation is not causation

    • winslow80 says:

      Kevin M says:
      May 22, 2014 at 4:50 pm
      “I don’t know why people aren’t paying attention to the YEN? It’s the key to where the market goes from here. Look it up, match it behind the SPX and see what you find.”

      In 2010, the Yen was up and SPX was up.
      In 2011, the Yen was up and SPX was down.
      In 2012, the Yen was down and SPX was up.
      In 2013, the Yen was down and SPX was up.
      In 2014, the Yen is up and SPX is up.

      My cognitive skills abandoned me at roughly the same time I went senile. What is the correlation that troubles you?

      • Kevin M says:

        Winslow-You sound like a smart guy. You know that some years certain things do align. This year it’s the Yen vs the SPX. I don’t know why, it’s just the trade of the year. A pair trade. Until it’s broken, it must be respected.


      • simpleiam says:

        winslow, I love your ‘JK’ imitation. LOL!

      • LMAO, I will use this “My cognitive skills abandoned me at roughly the same time I went senile”

      • winslow80 says:

        Kevin ~ Bear markets are great. The rapid profits. The warm and fuzzy schadenfreude. I love bear markets. The problem is getting a detailed explanation from those who are currently bearish as to why the stock market is about to collapse. I am not averse to the possibility. I just would like to know the reasoning behind the premise. Why is the stock market going to fall? Is there a logical array of factors? “Here are the technical reasons that equities are about to bite the dust…1….2…3…4…5…”

        As of now, I cannot make a convincing case that stocks are entering a bear market. I have tried, and the potential does exist, but there is nothing really compelling. It seems as though bear arguments primarily consist of “The Fed Sucks” and “The Market Is Estranged From Reality”, interspersed with the occasional “Margin Interest Is Consistent With Prior Tops” and “Prices Are Overvalued Historically”.

        All true. But so what? Price action is everything. Where is the intermediate term bearish price action? If Naz breaks its primary uptrend line, that will be a good beginning for the prophets of doom. Yet as things stand now, isn’t the bear case entirely speculative? I am eager to be proven wrong. Educate me.

        Here is the quintessential model of a superb bear market dissertation. See if you can emulate this:

      • Kevin M says:

        Ok winslow, where did I say we are going in a bear market? Where? And when did I say we are going to collapse? It’s all in your senile head. I said it will be a 5 to 10% correction. Do you know the difference between a correction and a bear market? Maybe you don’t. Look it up ok.

        I’m simply saying what I have from the April. May to June will not be a good time to invest(swing trade or hold) during this period(for the SPX). Ummmm Looks like I’m right so far and June is still upon us. The constant bullish comments day after day here and we still haven’t cracked 1900. Can you explain this?

        Again please stop it with the constant bull nonsense. BTW the Russell is still very expensive. That’s one reason NOT to put your money in that index. It’s trading at 100x’s. Yikes. But hey go ahead and trade away.

        It’s been 5 years since the bottom. You know it’s(bear market) coming eventually, I’m not saying now, we need a parabolic phase first, although one could say we have already achieved this in the russell and many biotechs/tech. This world isn’t perfect ya-know. Remember hindsight is always 20/20. Even Tony expects this to end within a year.

        Take care…

      • simpleiam says:

        winslow, for some reason, these guys don’t think we know a correction is coming! LOL! Not only that, but they’re not considering the people that bought a few years ago, who can easily withstand such a correction with no problem whatsoever. You won’t get a definitive answer out of him/them. You’re a good trader/investor. I like reading your posts. GL!

      • winslow80 says:

        simpleiam says:
        May 22, 2014 at 8:32 pm
        “I like reading your posts. GL!”

        I am honored. I have enjoyed reading your commentary for years. Thank you.

        Kevin M says:
        May 22, 2014 at 6:28 pm
        “Winslow-You sound like a smart guy.”
        Kevin M says:
        May 22, 2014 at 8:11 pm
        “Ok winslow…It’s all in your senile head.”

        Mine must be the most pathetic mental decline ever: I went from smart to senile in just 103 minutes. Fortunately, I can still count to three. As in three posts from me. To quote wavegenius, “That’s a wrap.”

      • Ryan Parker says:

        Yen is key currency to follow relative to the US markets right now. It used to be the Canadian Dollar.

      • rc1269 says:

        post of the week my man. love it

      • simpleiam says:

        LOL! Winslow! Hey, I can count to five or six, but my counting ability is waning fast. Oh Lordy, Kevin, Kevin… He is a caution. That’s a wrap from me too! Nighty-night, All! GL Friday.

    • Caldaro is following the FED. Although an EW master he knows deep down this whole move was brought to you by your centrally planned goverment

    • chrisk44342 says:

      Yes, I see this phrase a lot here ‘you bulls’. To Tony’s credit he doesn’t engage in this kind of debate. My only conviction is what the probabilities/trend favor. I honestly don’t care if I’m bullish or bearish. You guys who come on here with this stuff really need to examine why you’re speculating in the first place. If Prechter is right one time out of 100, I guess that makes him a genius🙂

  27. bouraq says:

    Resilient resistance

    • bhtrade says:

      Love your charts, bookmarked your site, thanks for contributing. Gotta ask though: as a bear does it concern you that the dips from that backtested orange line are getting smaller and smaller as the spx keeps bouncing back up to test the rising line? i.e. the market seems to be following that trajectory but the trajectory is up

      • bouraq says:

        Sure it is stressful to see a resistance pummelled by the price action. But I have to stick to what I see. Unless it is broken with conviction there is always a chance for a reversal.

    • alexhartley1 says:

      I agree with you bouraq on the SPX. I think we head back down here into end of month. Originally I didn’t. Good weekend to all.

  28. pooch77 says:

    Lets see if rut can break trend and take out last daily high tomorrow of 111.05,came close today but not quite.We have a series of 6 lower highs on the rut daily,need a trend breaker tomorrow

  29. lunker1 says:


    • chrisk44342 says:

      Good chart lunker. One of my issues with HS and IHS is the placement. Purists point to the theory that an IHS should not occur at tops. Chartists would argue ‘what is a top’? because a lot depends on your time frame. What is your thought?

  30. thanks for the update Tony.

    Growth stocks staging a comeback!?

    Bearish sentiment abound:–why-stocktwits.html That doesn’t reconcile with a top IMHO; it should be opposite.

    Btw, NDX broke out of it’s ascending triangle.


    • JK1987 says:

      imho, Both Nasdaq and NDX are at resistances, not breaking out yet.

    • tommyboys says:

      Exactly – this just one of the numerous metrics I reference. Everyone calling for crash now so it can’t happen – especially with AD so strong. Can’t believe how bearish everyone is – even cynical. What condition will bears be in at Dow 20k over the next 12-18 months?

      • simpleiam says:

        “Can’t believe how bearish everyone is – even cynical.”
        YEAH, isn’t it great?! Has to be good for a few more points.

      • As long as you have the Fed Tommyboy why not Dow 25,000? I mean what’s a couple of more buy programs or shorting naked puts on S&P from the switchboard a few more years going to hurt? In fact companies should not even report numbers and why track GDP or employment? Who cares just press the f5 button at 330

      • tommyboys says:

        Fed fed fed vix vix vix fed LOL

      • simpleiam says:

        “tommyboys says:
        May 23, 2014 at 6:51 am
        Fed fed fed vix vix vix fed LOL”

        Yep, he has the sound of someone who lost money and doesn’t trade anymore, but thinks we don’t know what’s going on.

        Speaking of which, wouldn’t surprise me to see a small pullback today, or remain flat; not a difficult guess… Hope it’s small anyway. If larger pullback, it could be a BUY! Some bloggers around saying 1860 again; don’t know if I’m in that camp, but it’s a BUY too! I’m reading up on ED’s after the post by Tony and ‘tryingtomakeabuck’ above.

        GL and Happy Memorial Day to All! Simplify!

      • simpleiam says:

        Wow! Happy to be wrong about a pullback, LOL! And look at that r2k; lovely. Will just let it all ride. Bye!

    • torehund says:

      Soul and all: Finally, lots of fake starts. Lets hope this is the Growth phase we have been missing all along.

      • simpleiam says:

        Hello tore. Hope you’re well. I hope it’s a ‘growth phase’ too. It would certainly benefit many who truly need the funds. GL to You!

        TTY All later! Simplify

      • torehund says:

        M- thanks, and my arm is gradually improving after the accident I had on the scooter in Mexico. Feels bottomish, and Charts may just say so too. Bulk is my near term favorite, later tank and container shipping.

      • simpleiam says:

        R2K looking nice for you today, tore. TTYL!

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