thursday update

SHORT TERM: rally continues, DOW +10

Overnight the Asian markets gained 1.0%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.1%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported higher: 326k v 297k. The market opened one point higher than yesterday’s SPX 1888 close. It then dipped to SPX 1885 before resuming the rally. At 10am Leading indicators were reported higher: +0.4% v +0.8%, and Existing home sales were higher too: 4.65mn v 4.59mn. The rally continued until 11:30 when the SPX hit 1896. Then after a pullback to SPX 1893 by 1pm, the market hit 1896 again at 3pm. Heading into the close the market dipped to SPX 1892 and closed there.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.15%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.50%. Bonds lost 5 ticks, Crude slipped 25 cents, Gold rose $3, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1869 and 1841 pivots, with resistance at the 1901 and 1929 pivots. Tomorrow: New home sales at 10am.

The market opened slightly higher today, dipped, and then rose above short term resistance at SPX 1891. When it did we upgraded the Minute ii label to dark green, from tentative green, at SPX 1862. The uptrend should now in be Minute wave iii. Or, as illustrated on our DOW alternate #1 count: Minor wave C. Both counts suggest the market should make new highs soon. How far these highs go will depend on how high the NDX/NAZ can carry the SPX/DOW. For now we will just take it one pivot at a time.

Short term support is at SPX 1891 and the 1869 pivot, with resistance at the 1901 and 1929 pivots. Short term momentum displayed a slight negative divergence at today’s high, then declined. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the reversal level now SPX 1890. Best to your trading before the holiday weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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145 Responses to thursday update

  1. rc1269 says:

    boy i didn’t check the blog for a few hours and look at all the fun i miss


  2. Hi tony
    Nifty hit 7563 last week
    What’s your view… Is the Bear market rally over?


  3. That is another SHORT opened at 1899.6, That takes average at 1891.1 medium quantity.

    To ensure that I spend sleepless night, have also SHORTED emerging Market indices..

    Not sure when I will go in cave, it could be in next few seconds as well!!!


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