wednesday update

SHORT TERM: pullback continues, DOW -101

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.2%. Europe opened lower but ended mixed. US index futures were lower overnight, and at 8:30 the PPI was reported higher: +0.6% v +0.5%. The market opened one point below yesterday’s SPX 1897 close, and continued to pullback. By 10:30 the SPX hit 1891, bounced to 1895 by 11am, and then went into a trading range until the last hour and a half of trading. Then the market broke lower. At 3:30 the SPX hit 1886, then bounced to an 1889 close.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.55%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.60%. Bonds gained 17 ticks, Crude rose 45 cents, Gold rallied $12, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1869 and 1841 pivots, with resistance at the 1901 and 1929 pivots. Tomorrow: weekly Jobless claims, the CPI and NY FED at 8:30; Industrial production (est. -0.1%) at 9:15; then Philly FED and NAHB at 10am. Also, there is a speech by FED chair Yellen in the evening.

The market opened slightly lower today, pulled back to SPX 1891, then went into a four point trading range until late in the day. With the DOW, mostly IBM, leading the push lower. The SPX hit 1886 in the last hour of trading. This pullback has now overlapped the previous rally high at SPX 1889. The entire uptrend is starting to look quite choppy, just like the previous uptrend. This would suggest the upside potential is now becoming limited for the SPX/DOW. Still expect the uptrend to continue, as long as the NDX/NAZ does not head back to its lows. But it now appears the rallies and pullbacks will be choppier, and possibly the OEW 1929 pivot will put the lid on this uptrend. We are still in a bull market, and the SPX/DOW are in confirmed uptrends.

Short term support drops to the 1869 and 1841 pivots, with resistance at SPX 1889/1891 and the 1901 pivot. Short term momentum dropped to quite oversold from yesterday’s extremely overbought condition. The short term OEW charts turned negative today with the reversal level now SPX 1893. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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202 Responses to wednesday update

  1. simpleiam says:

    Buying just might occur tomorrow too! GL!

  2. RDC says:

    Selling Continues Tomorrow …

    • JK1987 says:

      fyi, your Dennis indicator has been bearish for the last 3 days.

      • RDC says:

        OK then … time to go long

      • Kisshu2 says:

        wait do you mean Dennis has been bullish so its a bearish indicator? i only saw his msnbc metals talk. Also, i count 3 waves up so far from todays spx low on 5 min chart – does that say anything?

      • JK1987 says:

        Dennis was bearish yesterday and the day before, he was perfectly correct.
        RDC, if you really followed Dennis, you should have been very long last 2 days.

  3. magicianme says:

    FWIW, I don’t believe this is the start of the correction. Given the action today …tomorrow is likely to be a consolidation day with a lower range than today. For those of you who are longer term bulls I wouldn’t panic just yet😉 There (may)be a small downside to tomorrow, but it’s looking like the market’s panic is over for now.

    • You call this panic, spx goes down for a couple days, after it has gone up for 5 years, give me a break.

      • Kevin M says:

        lol….Newbie…The perma bulls are so predictable aren’t they? Anyway….Yeah a bounce might come tomorrow. The trins #’s were a bit high but seriously though….New highs are a pipe dream.

  4. simpleiam says:

    Tony, I don’t mean to jump the gun before closing, but looks like your call of a test of 1869 pivot was, as jedi says, “spot on”! Thank you! I very much appreciate your posting it last night. Have a great evening. Simplify!

    • Saying that it “could” dip to 1869 pivot isn’t the same as saying that it WOULD (likely) do so, but the kudos are well-deserved. Tony’s overall grasp of the market, combining OEW with some standard TA, is among the best I’ve seen.

      Many thanks, Tony – new highs should be forthcoming.

      • simpleiam says:

        FRB, you can always go pick nits on someone else’s message.

        Again, we got the “End of The World” blogs with a SIMPLE 20+ point pullback, over 1 day. What a joke! Then we get bloggers cribbing Rick Santelli, and even Tony, on his own blog no less! I suppose that imitation is the sincerest form of flattery… Sometimes.

      • Think you missed the point entirely, Newbie – Tony’s among the best I’ve seen which is why I frequent his blog … saying that SPX “could” dip to 1869 pivot was quite good; had he (or anyone else) predicted that it WOULD (likely) hit 1860’s would have been extraordinary and even more valuable. It’s just a matter of degree. Keep following the advice of people like Tony, Jedi & several others here and you’ll do well!

      • simpleiam says:

        I’m not newbie, and I didn’t miss a thing, so go away. You don’t know what you’re talking about (twit).

  5. Tony, I noticed you added the numbers 159 and 98 on the hourly SPX chart.

    The 159 I can deduct as being (1738-1987), and 98 is 61.8% off that. Assuming the latter number is from the next important low (1814), it would target 1912. Is my thought correct?

    • tony caldaro says:

      good deduction, correct

    • 7dayyss says:

      Soul, I have always read you since you’ve been posting and thought you were sharp as a pencil, now you’ve become sharper then a tack!!! Seriously, the various fibs you work now are second nature to you. Congrats!

      • thanks 7dayyss.🙂 !!! I am just doing some math, and trying to remain objective, which is tough on days like this when emotions run high (they always do more so on down days -just look at the number of posts…- but in the end it are all only numbers. I must give kudos to others here too:

        Jedi, CN, JK, BJ100, etc etc (those just popped up in my mind but that doesn’t mean it’s all inclusive). I enjoy reading your posts and technical analyses.

      • Right back at you, Soulsurferusa. I hone in on your blog comments.

  6. Very confident that 1865 was good entry, can’t rule out one more retest of 1862 but think gap up & go more likely for opex tomorrow. Best to all in this choppy market.

    • You and everybody else on the planet is expecting that we go up tomorrow because of opex, just like everyone was expecting continuation thru 1900. Things aren’t always as they seem, you could get a black Friday to finish off what was already started.

  7. Just a thought, but have any of you given the thought that there is a slight possibility of an alternate competing ED based on a different wave count? I happen to run across this one posted by WavePatternTraders and he happens to have both the DJI and the SPX ED’s in sync…interesting count I say.


  8. CygnetNoir says:

    There are only 2 moving averages that matter – the 50 day and the 200 day. The Dow is sitting on its 50 day for the 3rd time in less than a month. Carry on …

    • winslow80 says:

      But are the only two moving averages that you have consecrated simple or smoothed or exponential? Don’t respond by typing. Just put your pronouncements on stone tablets and send them down from Mount Sinai.

      For those of us who (unlike Swan) are not omniscient, placing a 121 day simple moving average on SPX will debunk the newest commandment: “Thou Shall Use Only Two Moving Averages”.

  9. jeffbalin says:

    Honestly if this is primary 4, the naz is certainly to follow suit with a major decline, and it just doesn’t sync up with any count I can come up with at the moment, can anyone come up with something? I’m favoring irregular minor 2 correction and it may have just ended, minor 3 to come,

    • simpleiam says:

      Thanks jeffbalin. Couldn’t make up my mind if it was 2 or 4.

    • jeffbalin says:

      In addition, we’ve been having crazy minor 2’s lately. ” Ok! Minor 3 has begun! Oh wait no it hasn’t. Ok, now it’s begun. Oh wait what is this? Primary 4 has started! Oh wait, no it hasn’t, now we are in minor 3. Oh wait it’s still minor 2, ok now it’s minor 3″. Up down up down sideways. This, could be another crazy minor 2.

      • simpleiam says:

        HAHA! If I trade at all right now, I just try to capture the likely move of the next day, else, it’s too much to try and figure out. I still tend to think this is a Minor 4, but can’t prove it. GL!

      • simpleiam says:

        I should say, been an M4 all this time. It just seems we’re much further out on the chart. I’ve missed so much of watching markets the last couple months, it takes a toll. CU!

      • jeffbalin says:

        Actually Mokiepon, correct we are not in minor 2….unless…..
        I have it as, we are in minor 3. And in micro 2 of minute 3, micro 2 because of the overlap. I think this is what I mean. I probably could see a little clearer if I splurged and got Tony’s 3 for $12 glasses at Target. Just stalling on that, kind of like my toothbrush situation….

  10. JK1987 says:

    Read some folks comments, here is my take.
    Two days ago I asked Tony about:
    “deadly” DOW diagonal option of Primary III top.
    Tony was right on the answer, my impression is big decline coming from Tony’s comment.

    • Based on yesterday’s update and the comment Lee pasted, sounds like Tony allowed for a drop to 1862-1876 (1869 pivot zone) and then a ramp back up to new highs … low so far is 1862 so went short-term bullish with stop at 1855-58. Thx for everyone’s input!

  11. To all the bond experts… Your thoughts on the 10yr and the overall effects if it continues to slide lower.

    • JK1987 says:

      I am not a bond expert.
      But 10 yr is right at the support at 24.73.

    • rc1269 says:

      rates look like they’re going lower… not sure what more you’d like to know. resistance broken. 10yr initial target 2.4% then 2.2%. foreign sovs have rallied so much (Ireland had been trading inside the UST…) that it won’t take much for int’l buyers to swoop into our mkt.
      no clue what the price/level is that JK gave so can’t comment on that

      • hrmny358 says:

        Most analysts, economists and fund managers think higher rates. One thing that caught my attention this week was a comment by a fund manager, his view is that LDI’s are funded and looking to lock in by buying treasuries. Something to consider since LDI’s are huge and a major concern for the fed IMO

      • JK1987 says:

        10 yr tsy support at Jul and Oct lows.

      • rc1269 says:

        re LDI – that is true. i am one of them. though that dynamic will impact the 30yr more than the 10yr, fwiw.

      • rc1269 says:

        JK – understood. just wasn’t sure what your 23.74 level was. i track rates, not an index, so not not as familiar with that.

      • JK1987 says:

        rc, Tepper’s one concern was bond yield indicates deflation, and that was the street talk since the PPI jumps to 2 yr high yesterday.
        But here I show a strong support of the yield at 2.473%.
        Maybe you can check your bloomberg terminal for the support I posted.

      • rc1269 says:

        i see it JK. do not believe it to be support, however. in October, July was support. and in October we did not get down that far; the rally stopped at 2.50. so i view today as a break of the October support and don’t see much significance to the July level just 3bp below it. just my view, but i see what you’re saying.

    • Kevin M says:

      Newbie-The 10y should fill the 2.33 gap it created in June of last year by the end of May. From there it will bounce just slightly and equities will rally into the first part of June. thereafter the 10y should trade lower than 2.33 thereafter by the end of June/July to possibly to the low 2’s, as far as equities, there should be a rush to the exits by the end of the quarter. SPX should get to the high 1600’s by the end of June. however there is an option out there that should be looked at. The option is the SPX getting to only 1750ish by the end of June and then a rally into the First part of August and then a major decline into the fall time to 1576-1600ish. Hard to tell where it goes now.

  12. fionamargaret says:

  13. A couple days down and look at all the chaos around here, wait till this market really starts to dive.

    • uncle10 says:

      You do make me laugh newbe. Reading the comments the last few days seems most here are short. Some very confidently. No chaos from my view.

      • Uncle I’m here to learn, have fun, and make friends bulls & bears alike. I haven’t been too successful making friends though because I’m a Super Bear in a Bully pen. But its all good. best of luck traders.

  14. blackjack; kudos with sticking to your ED. Sure looks like that way and it for sure caught me off guard. But, not sure if ATH was a of c of E or all of E. Bounce of the lower trendline (on DOW) is likely given the EXTREMELY OS conditions (did the hourly RSI register below 2!?).


    • jeffbalin says:

      Could be dow count ED. Could also be nasty c of an irregular minor 2 correction. Need more data.

      • jeff, I was thinking the same after I wrote my post. The move off the 1867 low to 1902 high was 3 waves, so was IMHO the move of the 1859 low to 1889 high. or so was the move of the 1891 high to 1859 low. It’s all 3 waves (up and down). hence it fits with an ED or 3-3-5/3-3-3 correction. So far it is still higher highs and higher lows…

    • blackjak100 says:

      Thanks but missed the target range. The ED had the right look but shallower than normal retracements which means it’s not surprising it fell short of the target. At least a truncation was avoided by topping 1897.

      We won’t know if I’m completely correct until we get 15-20% selloff, but it’s highly probable

  15. winslow80 says:

    False breakouts are toxic, so tread lightly. If the 50 ema gives way, there is support at the daily gap of 1844. The 121 day sma has provided important support for eighteen months ~ it is at 1837.

    • I was thinking the same the other day, that the break above 1900 was not accompanied by the required increase in volume. instead on the SPX it registered below 2B, which is well below the ~2.5B LT average of this bull.

      • Correct. The monday breakout was a low volume and false one.
        It created a nice Ending Diagonal “throw-over” in Dow though.
        Once again Dow proved itself as the “bellwether” EW count.

        • sven, yes. That’s why I wrote in my update on May 11th showing the possible triangle: “IF it breaks out (on higher than the longer term average volume).”

  16. RDC says:

    Every bounce will be sold until 1780s …

  17. uncle10 says:

    I hardly ever watch cnbc but seems every time I turn it on I start laughing! I see they are blaming this down move on Tepper comments!?!? you cant make this stuff up! lol

    • JK1987 says:

      Tepper effect!
      “SkyBridge founder Anthony Scaramucci pointed out in his introductory remarks before bringing Tepper onstage that anyone investing $1 million in Appaloosa 20 years ago would have $149 million today.”

      • uncle10 says:

        Hey JK! Miss your real time entries and exits. You were on a roll right before you stopped posting. Hope you are still doing great.
        Tepper is a great money manager for sure! though IMO the market going down had nothing to do with him saying he went from 100% long 6 months ago to only 60% long now. gl jk.

      • JK1987 says:

        People do not like my real time trades posting, so I stop that.
        Today we have the Tepper effect.
        Don’t forget Yellen effect tonight.

        OEW tutoring really is great, beyond what you can see on the public blog here, those group staff really is great.
        Based on my experience, I highly recommend.

      • uncle10 says:

        JK, I don’t think anyone had a problem with you posting your real time trades. I think your pointing/calling out with copying and reposting what OTHER people posted was the problem.

      • +1, I agree with uncle – posting trades is welcome so long as they are realtime & not after the fact.

        Nice call on the ED, bj.

      • Kisshu2 says:

        miss your trades jk

      • JK1987 says:

        A few, for example, lunker1, against my real time trades positing.
        And I have agreed to the host of not posting my trades.
        Once again, don’t forget the Yellen effect tonight.

      • uncle10 says:

        Hey, No problem JK. I understand.
        I won’t forget!! 😉

    • mjtplayer says:

      It all started yesterday with the lousy retail sales print. The theory has been the 0.1% Q1 GDP figure was all weather related and once the weather imporved we’d be back to 2.5% – 3% growth. Not so, the April data is better than Q1 (which isn;t hard), but it’s not great and nowhere close to 2.5% grwoth, more like 1% – 1.5% growth. Therefore, estimates and valuations must come down.

      Also, housing has been disapointingly slow this spring, not much of a bounce from winter, that’s very bad for the economy if housing is faultering, it’s really the only brightspot over the past few years.

  18. CygnetNoir says:

    The DOW really has a thing for that 16450 #

  19. Tony, any thoughts here? Does the length of today’s drop make you think we might be in Wave 4 down? Any target level?

    Thx to all those who post substantial, USEFUL info (Jedi, Kevin, Bouraq, JK, BJ, Scotty, Magician, Fiona and one of my favorites, Uncle) – keep ’em coming, bullish and bearish alike.

    • tony caldaro says:

      big decline after another new high failure in choppy market

      • Lee X says:

        I think I read that somewhere yesterday Tony

      • Thanks, Tony.

        Lee, nothing yesterday about a big decline.

      • Lee X says:

        Hey FRB

        That’s why they play the game😉

      • H D says:

        “big decline” Tony, if I may. I’m surprised to read this. I know I got it wrong, I’m ok with that but I don’t think a side not in the commentary from you was a call for downside. I had to go back and re-read yesterday. Been a reader for years and feel like I have decent grasp on how you present your analysis. Taking one set of the nested 1-2’s off the primary count is not exactly bearish. In fact, some were presenting bearish multi decade RUT charts and getting a rebuttal as ‘subjective.’ TF took out years low today. There were only 2-3 people actually pounding the table for the correct choppy EW count. What am I missing? Can we say this market is not impulsive at least?

        Nothing disrespectful in tone, hope it doesn’t come across that way.

      • Lee X says:

        tony caldaro says:
        May 14, 2014 at 6:29 pm
        could dip back to the 1869 pivot before ramping back up

        This comment and Tony’s Wednesday update is what I was talking about.
        I think Tony’s statement of big decline was in the moment referring to today’s action IMHO
        Ok guys don’t trade angry unless u make make money that way then get GREEN

      • I don’t think he sounded angry at all, very legitimate point and respectful tone. Thx for the pasted comment, helpful. Going short-term bullish here at 1865 with tight stop around 1855. Good trading to all here.

  20. blackjak100 says:

    ED officially complete and a 15-20% correction just beginning. I’m going to wait for bounce before selling longs and going short as we seem very oversold already

  21. mjtplayer says:

    Hey Tony and everyone!

    Was on vacation last week and haven’t made any trades in a while, just sitting tight and mostly in cash (70%) with small shorts in QQQ, IWM & GLD and been waiting for the ED to complete – which it just might have done.

    What do you think Tony? Time to scrap the 1-2, 1-2, 1-2 count and move the odds toward the ED count? The ED count in the DOW looks perfect, new high with a slight overthrow in wave “E”, then hard reversal. Bottom of the ED is support, around 16,350 +/-, below that it’s lights-out

    Hourly RSI extremely oversold, could get a bounce for a day or 2 back to DOW 16,550 – 16,600 once the 16,350 support is hit. If no new highs on the bounce, then look out below…

      • mjtplayer says:

        NAZ 100pts from the low, NAZ 100 looks even better, so both are positive per your comments.

        But, R2K back to the lows – actualy made a slightly lower low today, not positive. Also, semi’s just 1% from the lows and on schedule to make the 2-yr cycle low in 2014 – short semi’s.

        We’ll see. The DOW “ED” count looks very good, where the S&P count looks a bit stretched and forced, trying to fit square pegs into round holes, IMO. A break above the DOW ED at 16,750+ and I’m wrong, a break below at 16,300 or so and the counts clearly favor the ED.

    • simpleiam says:

      Bonds yields and a whiff of deflation. Tepper only counts with non-pros. Pros are waiting below to gobble up bargains for what’s probably the last bigger pop before P4. GL mjt.

  22. Never tell the DOW she’s second best. Perfect trap Monday.

    A sincere thanks to John, Kevin, Newbie. You stuck with EW and went against the groupthink here. Great job.

    Check back in a couple days.

    • CygnetNoir says:

      +1 HD At this point, its a game of support and resistance. Just wait for price to reach the next pivot below, and see how it bounces, if it bounces.

  23. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    SPY ~ trend line bounce. Must hold! IMO

  24. Kevin M says:

    This is P4 folks. Right on cue. I said after this Monday and look out……Well here we are…..Does it bounce from here and go to 1920. Highly doubtful. But still could. Again doubtful.

    Even PERMA BULL David Tepper says He’s nervous….Yikes

  25. rc1269 says:

    10am bounce anybody?

    • The only bounce is gonna be…. drum roll…. bulls bouncing their head off their desks in disbelief. Best of luck traders.

    • seems a bit lower than it should’ve, channel seems a bit hurt… but very low volume for a correction, so far

      • 1866 should be a bounce

      • simpleiam says:

        Very possible. I think it’s just a Tepper Tantrum. Could be a great setup for Friday. (Hey bj!) Bye ya’ll. Simplify!

      • Meh, I wouldn’t play this bounce for some reason, even though everything looks to be a perfect set up for a bounce…

      • simpleiam says:

        Indices version of waterboarding. Gotta love it! You WILL be well-washed when it’s over. It’s SIMPLE! (Shakin’ it, Boss! LOL!)

      • magicianme says:

        surfingwaves, I’m not seeing low volume at all! Volume so far today in S&P futures is about double what it normally is at this time of the day.

        Warning: The downside cyclical energy has not been exhausted for the day. Go long at your peril. There may be a reversal tomorrow – tomorrow is always another day – but the current minor bounce is a little indecision at a point where there’s significant support (and a trend/MA line or two), but don’t be fooled. There’s no “professional buying” going on at this bottom as you’d expect for a “real” reversal.

        There’s still some downside to be played today.

      • rc1269 says:

        good call on fading the first bounce

      • rc1269 says:

        now this feels like the better dip to play

      • Magic, volume did pick up later 45-60 minutes into trading day… sorry, looking at too many screens, forgot to update.. but this volume could be the setup for a bounce, or the next leg down… gotta see what this triangle does first.

      • simpleiam says:

        Be prepared for more dips. Still, if you can take the heat in the kitchen, you might get a great home-cooked meal. GL! Simplify!

      • magicianme says:

        surfingwaves, fair enough.

        I’m long now as the price crossed three times above 1861 (on the emini futures) and on the third occasion there were large contracts going through so I jumped in. The fact that the low of the day provided a stop that was less than a point away did help sway me.

    • 16golfer says:

      Sure…why not.

    • budfox9450 says:

      market will not go down for long, with
      WTIC heading up…;

      • Kevin M says:

        bud….You lost me on this one…..WTIC? unless oil goes up or down substantially it is a NON factor my good sir

      • budfox9450 says:

        Yeah, I can have that effect…
        no problem…In general, when
        oil is raising, so does the SP.

      • budfox9450 says:

        WTIC high was 102.65, OEW chart still have it
        at 102.07…Kevin, big moves tend
        to start, — small, don’t they.
        Well over my “3” for the day…
        Have a great weekend all.

  26. Oh what a feeling, I’m dancing on the ceiling.

  27. llerias7 says:

    P4 it is!! These are just the baby steps of a 10% correction…look out below…

  28. simpleiam says:

    “I’m shak’in it here, Boss!” – Paul Newman, Cool Hand Luke

  29. blackjak100 says:

    Did the ED really complete at 1902? Very atypical but it’s not looking good for the bulls out there

    • simpleiam says:

      bj, I think a dip below 1867 MIGHT be in the cards. Think we see a pop up, then dip, then up, etc. For those who can hang on, might be a good long. Otherwise, hope traders got their shorts on yesterday or this morning and make some dough. Simplify!

  30. may it be like these, there, in my take, there is possible two alt counts

  31. lunker1 says:

    ED and LD possibilities on the minute and minor level.

  32. bhupal777 says:

    As I am reading my twitter feed, one of the trader mentioned that today SPY posted ‘Evening Star’ bearish candlestick pattern which has 70% success rate. Also lot of my short listed candidates forming very clear H&S top formations or price is below 30 week SMA and 200 day SMA. I understand that chart formations are not sacred until they are completed. So there is no guarantee that evening star or H&S patterns will materialize. But definitely time to be cautious if not going short outright. Good luck all.

  33. CygnetNoir says:

    I’m short ES on the break of yesterday’s low. Stop above yesterday’s high. Daily SPX does not look bullish to me at all. Good luck to everyone – may we all be winners in the game of life!

  34. simpleiam says:

    Thanks for the Update, Tony! Ramp back up probably coming, as you say, “week(s)”, maybe sooner. Many of reports coming out tomorrow. Will be an interesting market for a while. Lots of Scare-dee Cat moves likely to shakeout weak traders. GL Everyone, Bears and Bulls alike.

  35. blackjak100 says:

    OK, had a chance to review the $SPX chart. Today’s red candlestick suggests this is not a fourth wave correction, but a second wave correction. 1867-1902 would then be 1 of c. On the 5 min chart, it looks very clear as a 5 wave structure down from 1902. This suggests we should finish the 2nd wave correction below 1886 as a zigzag. The 61.8% retrace is 1880ish. This correction could take the rest of the day tomorrow leaving a very bullish OPEX. I expect the ‘b wave’ to continue higher in the AM before dropping below 1886 in the PM.

    Right or wrong, I know the invalidation is 1867 but a close below 1878 would make me nervous. With the rising trendline of the ED and just 1 of c complete, the 1921-1938 zone now seems more probable. This is more inline with a blow off type scenario as well.

    • simpleiam says:

      bj, sounds very interesting. Thank you!

    • gtoptions says:

      Thx BJ, nice work.
      Here is a visual of the SPY with S/R levels.

    • You come up with some interesting scenarios, but you seldom say what degree wave you are talking about so it is very hard to visualize a picture out of what you are describing.

      • blackjak100 says:

        Completely understand it’s tough without a chart. However, I’ve been referencing an ED from 1646 where we are in wave V from 1814. All waves of an ED must be abc. I’m saying 1 of c was 1867-1902 and 2 of c could complete 1880ish.

        Hope it helps!

    • budfox9450 says:

      My W4 low, was 4/11, since then it has been
      a 5th wave up…but “choppy/ragged look as
      TC suggest…

  36. scottycj1 says:

    ONE MORE PUSH ? ——1920-23 19—-20TH

  37. pas1968 says:

    Hi Tony,
    Do you have an approx. price target in mind to end P3?
    It seems P3 top may not be far away, so maybe its time to start taking measures (eg. reducing longs) in anticipation of P4 where there should be much better opportunities to get long again.

  38. RDC says:

    Markets will be sold on every bounce from now on … There is absolutely no catalyst for markets to move higher.

  39. bhupal777 says:

    Tony, Have a good evening

  40. bouraq says:

    Bears looking good again:

    • blackjak100 says:

      It’s highly likely we get a fifth wave up in the SPX. It now appears it will be an extended 5 of c. The MACD is setting up to show a clear -div. The VIX is behaving strangely of late but would like to see it move up with the markets next few days

      • blackjak100 says:

        Or did the rise from 1867-1902 just complete 1 of c and this is a second wave correction? If we get more downwards movement tomorrow, this is not a fourth wave correction.

      • bouraq says:

        I reckon this is a significant top.

    • winslow80 says:

      Now the bears have something tangible going – a false upside breakout usually leads to a swift decline. Today also completed an evening star on the major stock indexes. We’ll see what happens if/when the daily gaps are filled on SPX (1878.57) and Naz.(4071.87). The two most recent SPX declines have supported at the 50 day ema (1864.60). If recent past is prologue, there will be a 3-5 day decline followed by a resumption of the agonizing trudge higher.

      You nailed the Dow. And since you are heavily long sugar, you should be aware that we have our president’s encouragement to hate your success and the ill-gotten wealth associated with it.

      • bouraq says:

        Don’t hate me Winslow. At least I’m sharing it with all of you; my wealth of ideas😀

    • magicianme says:

      bouraq, I’d just like you to know that yours is one of the few sites I check everyday (though I do wish you’d post FTSE charts more frequently). Many thanks for the analyses.

      winlsow80, I’d like to think swift decline, but there’s a lot of congestion below where we are now – formed particularly between April 30 and May 2. On tick charts this is even more clear than on time charts. I believe the S&P will struggle to get through this unless helped by news, but I’ll watch and wait.

    • 16golfer says:

      David Tepper getting nervous with markets here. Been a big believer of the “Bernanke put” in the past.

  41. Tony or Jedi – any opinion on BAC, short- and long-term? Anyone else welcome to reply as well. Thx in advance.

  42. lunker1 says:

    Hi Tony because of the overlap with the first wave today do you think the SPX might and with a smaller ED From the 1814 low? Any thoughts on the timeframe with the 1929 Pivot?

  43. Radrian: Your technical analysis of the $RUT has proven to have been an excellent one. Your TA looked very solid even at the time you wrote it, but in retrospect it looks downright prescient. The R2K is even detaching itself to some degree from the A-D line, the A-D line only logging in a medium-level decline today while the R2K posted a -1.60%.

    • radrian6 says:

      Thanks, George. RUT broke below Monday’s opening gap so the breakaway move may have completed at 1037.8. There is strong support below at 1195-90 and more at 1083. The bias is bearish, however, neither side can control the market for more than a few days so the price action remains choppy. RVX (RUT volatility index) is near 19 which is not particularly high but RUT daily price swings remain large (1% +). The RUT now belongs to day traders and short-swing traders — positions are being beaten to death by this bipolar market.

  44. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    The sentiment on the failed DJI/SPX breakout alone, will weigh this market down. The retest of the breakdown will be telling. I’m cautiously optimistic. GL

  45. makiori says:

    102 $/yen still key and leading indicator….when that goes, one direction or another in a meaningful move, the spx will follow suit.
    until then a myriad of possible counts will be discussed back and forward.

  46. fionamargaret says:

    Good analysis Tony.

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