SHORT TERM: consolidation day, DOW +20
Overnight the Asian markets gained 1.3%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.8%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 Retail sales were reported marginally higher: +0.1% v +1.1%, Export prices were lower: -1.0% v +0.5%, and Import prices were lower: -0.4% v +0.3%. The market opened one point above yesterday’s SPX 1897 close. Then drifted higher to SPX 1902 by 10:30. At 10am Business inventories were reported higher: +0.4% v +0.4%. The market pulled back to SPX 1896 by noon, bounced to 1899 by 1pm, then went into that trading range for the rest of the day and closed at 1897.
For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.10%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.20%. Bonds gained 12 ticks, Crude rallied $1.30, Gold slipped $4, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1869 and 1841 pivots, with resistance at the 1901 and 1929 pivots. Tomorrow: the CPI at 8:30.
The market opened slightly higher today, hit a new all time high while extremely overbought, then went into consolidation mode for the rest of the day. Thus far, this uptrend continues to look impulsive, with a series of nested first and second waves from the downtrend low at SPX 1814/1816. However, to remain objective we can only take this series of nested waves so far, before they turn into another choppy uptrend like February to April. To continue the uptrend in an impulsive fashion, the current pullback needs to hold above or equal to the SPX 1889 level. Anything below this level would suggest to us another choppy uptrend is underway. And, this would theoretically limit its upside potential.
Short term support remains at SPX 1889/1891 and the 1869 pivot, with resistance at the 1901 and 1929 pivots. Short term momentum hit extremely overbought this morning and declined. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the reversal level now SPX 1895. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bull market