SHORT TERM: choppy day after NFP, DOW -46
Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.1%. European markets opened lower and lost 0.4%. US index futures were higher overnight, rallied after the non-farm payrolls release, then retreated before the open. At 8:30 monthly Payrolls were reported higher: +288k v +192k, and the Unemployment rate declined: 6.3% v 6.7%. The market opened unchanged at SPX 1884, dipped to 1882, and then began to rally. At 10am Factory orders were reported higher: +1.1% v +1.6%. At 10:30 the SPX hit a new rally high at 1891 and then began to pullback. By 11:30 the SPX hit 1881, bounced to 1886 by noon, and then headed lower again. At 2pm the SPX hit 1879, then bounced to close at 1881.
For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.20%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.15%. Bonds had a volatile day but ended flat, Crude added 40 cents, Gold rallied $12, and the USD was flat. Medium term support remains at the 1869 and 1841 pivots, with resistance at the 1901 and 1929 pivots. Last night the FED reported a decrease in the Monetary base: $3.927tn v $4.012tn. Today the WLEI was reported higher: 54.2% v 54.1%.
At 8:30 NFP reported its largest month over month increase in over two years. Initially the futures market spiked higher, but the rally started selling off right after the spike. The market opened unchanged, but then rallied nearly back to the spike high before also pulling back. The buyers and sellers continue their tug of war. Nevertheless, the recent rally hit a new high at SPX 1891 before heading lower. It looked like five small waves up at the highs: 1880-1871-1889-1880-1891. So the pullback was expected.
Short term support is at the 1869 and 1841 pivots, with resistance at the 1901 and 1929 pivots. Short term momentum displayed a negative divergence at the highs then dropped. The short term OEW charts hit neutral in the afternoon, and ended positive with the reversal level at SPX 1879. Best to your weekend!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend probable
LONG TERM: bull market