friday update

SHORT TERM: choppy day after NFP, DOW -46

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.1%. European markets opened lower and lost 0.4%. US index futures were higher overnight, rallied after the non-farm payrolls release, then retreated before the open. At 8:30 monthly Payrolls were reported higher: +288k v +192k, and the Unemployment rate declined: 6.3% v 6.7%. The market opened unchanged at SPX 1884, dipped to 1882, and then began to rally. At 10am Factory orders were reported higher: +1.1% v +1.6%. At 10:30 the SPX hit a new rally high at 1891 and then began to pullback. By 11:30 the SPX hit 1881, bounced to 1886 by noon, and then headed lower again. At 2pm the SPX hit 1879, then bounced to close at 1881.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.20%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.15%. Bonds had a volatile day but ended flat, Crude added 40 cents, Gold rallied $12, and the USD was flat. Medium term support remains at the 1869 and 1841 pivots, with resistance at the 1901 and 1929 pivots. Last night the FED reported a decrease in the Monetary base: $3.927tn v $4.012tn. Today the WLEI was reported higher: 54.2% v 54.1%.

At 8:30 NFP reported its largest month over month increase in over two years. Initially the futures market spiked higher, but the rally started selling off right after the spike. The market opened unchanged, but then rallied nearly back to the spike high before also pulling back. The buyers and sellers continue their tug of war. Nevertheless, the recent rally hit a new high at SPX 1891 before heading lower. It looked like five small waves up at the highs: 1880-1871-1889-1880-1891. So the pullback was expected.

Short term support is at the 1869 and 1841 pivots, with resistance at the 1901 and 1929 pivots. Short term momentum displayed a negative divergence at the highs then dropped. The short term OEW charts hit neutral in the afternoon, and ended positive with the reversal level at SPX 1879. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend probable

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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15 Responses to friday update

  1. Vic Aellen says:

    I am not sure how a + 1.1% factory order number is higher than a + 1.6%??

    • tony caldaro says:

      month over month change, i.e. 101.1 is higher than 100

    • I think it means that the previous month to month change was 1.6% while the most recent month to month change was 1.1%. While that increase over the previous month was less than the earlier comparison, it is still a positive rate of change. Therefore factory orders are higher.

  2. torehund says:

    One remark is that the macd hoock ups on individual Stocks are of the very reluctant type..flats out a lot..sign of legs once the market really turns. Putins Endeavours could bode well for shipping, gold and commodities With nat gas in the forefront. Global tension and global Growth speaks for hysterical breath numbers in a all on Board fashion. Lets see and good weekend to all on Board.
    However neutral on gold at the time.

  3. Hi Tony!

    In Dow, I noticed that the ED symmetry seems to work out well.
    At the friday high, the third wave of the E-wave was 0,6 of the first wave.
    Alas – we have a complete symmetry here between A,C and E waves.
    This might indicate the completion of major 5…..
    Looking forward to the weekend report!

    Best wishes Sverker

  4. tony caldaro says:

    report already done

  5. chrisk44342 says:

    Hi Tony. I am curious about something. I notice you have a tentative minute 1 label on your 60 minute chart, yet there really is nothing that resembles an impulse in examining the hourly chart. I’ve noticed this on other timeframes as well. So would it be accurate to say that OEW favors function over form? In other words, is the quantifiable portion of your analysis take precedence over the fractal/pattern value that R.N. Elliott valued? I don’t really have any bias- more curious than anything.

    • tony caldaro says:

      In order to filter out the noise of the minute by minute vibrations in the market we quantify the short term movements by price. This generally has served us well during the past few years, i.e. like today.

      • makiori says:

        Tony, in your own time would you be so kind to expand on this subject and to give us some examples? IMO this is one of the most interesting subjects that have been discussed in this blog for a long while. Thanks in advance

        • tony caldaro says:

          Actually we post the waves, that we see, nearly every day.
          Unfortunately can not get into the details publicly on how we determine these waves.

  6. John Arella says:

    Thanks Tony 🙂

  7. simpleiam says:

    Thanks Tony! Be home in the morning for OEW Coffee Club.

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