thursday update

SHORT TERM: choppy day, DOW -22

Overnight the Asian markets open gained 1.3%. European markets opened gained 0.4%. US index futures were relatively flat overnight. At 8:30 FED chair Yellen speech:,  plus weekly Jobless claims were reported higher: 344k v 329k, Personal income was reported higher: +0.5% v +0.3%, Personal spending higher: +0.9% v +0.3%, and PCE prices were higher: +0.2% v +0.1%. The market opened one point above yesterday’s SPX 1884 close, dipped to 1881, bounced to 1886, then pulled back to 1878 by 10:30. At 10am ISM was reported higher: 54.9 v 53.7, and Construction spending was higher: +0.2% v +0.1%. Then market then hit a new rally high at SPX 1889 by 11:30, but started to pullback again. In the afternoon the market hit SPX 1880 several times before bouncing to a 1884 close.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.05%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.30%. Bonds gained 6 ticks, Crude lost 30 cents, Gold dropped $4, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1869 and 1841 pivots, with resistance at the 1901 and 1929 pivots. Tomorrow: monthly Payrolls at 8:30, (est. +205k), then Factory orders at 10am.

The market opened a bit higher today, bounced around, then hit SPX 1889. After that it started to pullback. The NDX/NAZ rallied early in the day, but apparently the SPX/DOW were not ready to move too much higher yet. Nice to see the growth indices leading for a change. Thus far from the recent SPX 1851 low we have: 1880-1871-1889-1880. This could be four waves up, or a 1-2-1-2. Will have to see if SPX 1880 holds.

Short term support is at the 1869 and 1841 pivots, with resistance at the 1901 and 1929 pivots. Short term momentum displayed a very slight negative divergence at today’s highs then declined. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the reversal level now SPX 1877. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend probable, DOW confirmed

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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164 Responses to thursday update

  1. simpleiam says:

    Guess I need to read fine print of Jobs Rept. today.

  2. pooch77 says:

    Cant remember the last time the rut swung 15-20 points per day for what the last week? Anyone nimble enough to trade these. Go short or long??? Daily cant make up its mind if wants up or down

  3. JK1987 says:

    Can’t make up this oew stuff.
    Bearish wave can never start with this stuff at record high.
    Might save you some bucks if you are “objective” and shorts.;

  4. Kevin M says:

    Again not to slam Tony, because we are all human but and it’s a big but…. Last year he had a forecast that included a high in the overall stock market by winter/spring 2014. Now of course things have changed but it’s important to take his advice and counts with a grain of salt. With that being said, yes he does a good job in counting the waves however he doesn’t take into account many other factors, such as seasonals. ignoring this is a huge mistake and will bite you in the end. EW people like Tony do many thing in hindsight and then say, o look this is how it was and how it will be. We all know this is very damaging to most who trade.

    My point, think for yourself and take bits and pieces from people like Tony.

    Take care….

    • Kevin, I advice you to take Tony’s course so you can learn all the factors he does take into account. It are MANY factors. Most of which you may not even have heard off (I surely hadn’t and I do think I knew a thing or two about the market…). It are so many factors I’ve not seen anybody else take into account (neither other EWers, nor other none-EW market analysts). This is as complete and comprehensive as it can get.

      And FYI: counting and trading are two different things. There’s no stop-loss, profit %, margin-call, etc etc in counting, that’s trading.

    • 16golfer says:

      We have 2 more months of spring Kevin!

    • scf51 says:

      His methods give guidance and lay out the probabilities. I’ve never traded better. Your problems lie with you.

      • Kevin M says:

        Look,I don’t expect the majority here to adhere to my advice. Just saying things that should be on your radar. FWIW unless the waves are perfectly aligned I never trade on them. Like right now, it would be foolish to trade on them. Just my opinion. Ok just for fun, the 5 wave count from Oct 2007 until March 2009, is absolutely perfection and thats when somebody should trade based on EW, NOT now. Now deserves other factors, i.e seasonals.

        Take care…

    • winslow80 says:

      Tony is not giving advice. He is generously sharing his perceptions, which I find to be most worthwhile. Yet like you, I am bitterly disappointed that he is not infallible.

      Perhaps we can sue.

  5. JK1987 says:

    Tony Thanks for the new label i.
    1878.5,13 points down from 1891 has the shape of abc for ii?;

    It’s back testing the red trend line.

  6. Tony, you wrote “Thus far from the recent SPX 1851 low we have: 1880-1871-1889-1880. This could be four waves up, or a 1-2-1-2. [1,2, i, ii].” Seems like the former?!

    • tony caldaro says:

      was at the time four waves up, now five and pulling back

      • thanks for confirming. so far looks like a clean, clear abc off the 1891 high: 1891-1880, 1880-1886, 1886-1878 (1878 was it or maybe a stab to 1875ish for an a=c!?)

      • tony caldaro says:

        Interesting day.
        Pop in ES on the NFP news
        Then sold off taking futures to negative
        Cash rallied the market after the open
        NQ sold off taking the SPX to negative
        Now after the rally to 1886, only ES making lower lows, not NQ.
        Divergence between the two forming

    • Interesting 2 months I’d like to add, or how about 2014 so far!? Day traders paradise, but nothing else really

  7. Bill Manscoe says:

    Tony based on current action in the long bond do you think we might actually make the 68 year high in 2014 which be 68 years from the 1946 high.

  8. Definitely not third wave. As said two days bfore, action at 50dma is critical. As said two days bfore, it will go to 50dma and then if there is no SHARP rally within 5 trading days of touching 50dma, then Spx going to south of 200dma within 25 trading days. South about 20 points.

  9. Caldaro i have a question with market close to highs and all the stuff looming are you surprised my the markets calm?

  10. anyone still bearish on gold here? today’s pop is shaping the charting into a bullish trend

    • blackjak100 says:

      I’m very bearish and think $1200 is next stop and will be hit in June.

    • fionamargaret says:

      I like Treasuries and Gold here, ‘tho gold is a weak positive it is still a positive (till it’s not).

      Glad ocaj2000 cleared up the “secret signs”.
      (Noticing the “out of sync” has saved my skin a couple of times, so am inclined to question).

      Have a great weekend Tony and all.

    • After reviewing gold TA chart more thoroughly, this move is a bit to bullish short term and it’s on it’s way to test the 1331.4 March 17th high. If it breaks above that you can kiss the gold bear trend good bye and hello gold bull trend.

  11. rc1269 says:

    What does everyone think of Gold here? finally ready for a sustained rally, or just consolidating before the next plunge?

    • blackjak100 says:

      Wave count I’m working with suggests a b wave is completing with this surge higher. Would like to see $1310-$1315 as target. $1200 is next stop

  12. 777daimon says:

    I know we are in a 3rd wave but a significant number of indicators start acting like now we are defining a resistance line, like we would be at a resistance level… weird stuff!!

  13. I am not promoting Caldaro by any means. But I will say I notice something. You can tell how emotionless or calm some posters are just sticking with the charts and Caldaro’s count. I have a funny feeling that these are the ones who have benefited from Caldaro’s tutoring program while others are saying the market cannot go up anymore or dooms day is coming. I am someone who believe that the FED montiors the markets very closely and believe they are supporting it in anyway they can even if its just words or what they leak out through media. Either way Caldaro through all this has kept his count right for the most part and was only wrong a few times since the market does not come down. Caldaro this weekend please post the tutoring link this weekend as I have interest

      • Hey its probably the only time I have been right on this board and tommyboy did not disagree me yet. LOL

      • JK1987 says:

        I highly recommend oew tutoring program.
        I have learned and benefited much more than I have learned in the past, wish I have started the program much earlier. Still learning …

      • thanks JK1987 I appreciate the testomonial. But hearing your a client is making me reconsider. Just kidding buddy have a great weekend.

    • +1 HIGHLY recommended course!! In the end it’s all about the O in OEW. Trying to be and stay objective is most profitable and mentally also keeps one more sane in this line of work (though 2 months of side ways slop even challenge the most patient and objective 😉 )

      Remember what Draghi once told the press: “first thing I do when I wake up in the morning is check the marketS” (stressing the S in markets since he knows darn well it’s a global economy these days).


      • Ditto the +1 — highly recommend Tony’s course. For me, I learned much about a,b,c waves and their behavior. That was my missing link. Glad I took the course — would do it again and would recommend it to my own friends and family (if they ever took their own personal interest in the market).

  14. lunker1 says:

    have a happy

  15. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony ~ Enjoy your Weekend.
    Great work from all posters, bulls & bears alike.
    Some very motivational comments. 😉

  16. Kevin M says:

    Writing on the wall folks!

    Hard to see the market go up from here without a catalyst. Greedy bulls thought is was the jobs report.

    10y and the 30y bond market taking a nice dive today. Once again, forecasting a correction coming.

    Mid-term seasonals are about to rip the bulls apart, regardless of the assumed wave structure here. Remember Tony will re-draw his waves once this down move gets started by next week.

    Do not take these events lightly

  17. lunker1 says:

    NAZ and Q’s had narrow rising wedges from Monday that broke down yesterday and were backtested this AM. IWM and MDY have wider leading diagonals looking patterns. perhaps the 1869 pivot gets one last test with wave ii.

  18. Lee X says:

    Thanks Tony

  19. uncle10 says:

    Time to give short a try. stop at days high. gl and good weekend

  20. Bullies, you better start buying that dip or risk succumbing to the DJI ED and SPX Truncated ED…..I repeat your bully days are numbered……………the clock is ticking boys and girls, let’s bring’er down to earth. euphoria is no man’s land

    • YELLEN!!!!! WATERFALL!!!!!!!…..HELP ME!!!!!

    • magicianme says:

      It not that far different from April’s NFP Friday (192K vs 198K expected) where they pushed the price up and made it look very bullish before taking it down 60 odd points. I doubt it’ll go 60 points this time, but a couple of key trend lines have been broken.

      I don’t think it’s always about good news or bad news. Market makers know where the price needs to go before the news comes out. The news itself has a short term effect on the price before the pro money steps in.

    • lunker1 says:

      LoLo have some respect for Tony’s blog. this isn’t a Yahoo chat board. post your technical view of the market and leave the childish taunts for the playground.

  21. John Arella says:

    Gann Daily Trading Calculator (short term use, usually 2 weeks)

    If you want to trade on a daily basis or weekly basis then this Gann Calculator will give you specific targets, just input the last closing high and you get targets:

  22. JK1987 says:

    i ii removed with the red negative divergence, a warning sign?;

  23. rc1269 says:

    can i just repeat yesterday’s comment that it feels like we should be making better headway right now…

  24. This market is far from normal, normal rationale about sentiment at different points, peaks or valleys should be thrown out the window. This market has gone nutty and comparing it to other markets is not realistic. What other markets has the fed contributed 4 trillion dollars to prop up?

  25. Amigos, what’s with all the YELLEN! We are all guest and friends here, so let shake hands and move on, Aye. Now can to critiquing the Mr. M. Well Mr. M recorded an plain indecisive doji yesterday, so lucky me I remained on sidelines and will make a decision today depending on what the charts tell me. Now that jobs # is impressive, but like I said yesterday, I expect a buy the rumor sell the news event.

    • simpleiam says:

      LoLo, yo might have good advice, for Daytraders. I’m no a daytrader, so I’m doing fine. GL!

      Kids finally packed. BYE!

      • Thx Simpeiam, Enjoy the beach with your family. It too gloomy here in Chicago for me to head out and enjoy the our beach lake

      • 16golfer says:

        If you are a futures trader, you are a day trader.

      • simpleiam says:

        golfer, I don’t owe you any explanations of what I do, but will explain this time only. I do on occasion trade futures, but not daily.

      • simpleiam says:

        LoLo, I’ll say a word in favor of the Bears that p1$$e$ off at least one of the Bulls here. I believe the current market situation is a cyclical Bull inside a secular Bear. Over the next year or so, the bottoming of this secular Bear will begin to take place, and at the bottom of the Bear will be a cut of 30%+ from whatever the high of this market ends up being. YOU WILL SEE ME GO SHORT! Otherwise, as one who has a core of div paying stocks, many of which are about 3 times higher now that when I bought them in 2009-10, I have no intention of selling them… Yet. Because of this, and the fact that I only ‘trade’ with 10% of my dough, I am not a Daytrader.

        The vast majority of bloggers here have lots of experience and are not blind orphans following a “Jim Jones” leader down a path to hell. (Tony, please excuse the comparison.) In fact, some here worked many years on Wall St. or in Chicago and have more experience than you, me and others here will ever have. Ease up a bit and watch, you’ll see. GL to You and All in trading!

      • simpleiam says:

        P. S. Cold breeze all day down here at beach, but warm in the water. Have seen a goodly amount of sharks today.

    • 16golfer says:

      Market not going up on good news? I’m shocked! lol

    • LoLoTrader, what part or suburb of Chicago are you from?

  26. rc1269 says:

    good thing the Fed removed their unemployment rate criteria!

  27. simpleiam says:

    I’m probably way off, but my guess for NFP is 183K. GL trading to All!
    Last post.

  28. winslow80 says:

    AAII Bullish 30% Neutral 41% Bearish 29%
    The long term average for bulls is 39%. With DJI hanging out near all time highs, the euphoria seems muted. Bullish 32% Bearish 68%
    This is a poll of ES traders.
    Once again, the enthusiasm appears well contained.

    In each survey, about thirty percent claim to be bullish.

    Are we witnessing crowd rapture?
    Or mass skepticism?

  29. magicianme says:

    I’ve got a question for you guys.

    OEW predicts that the recent ATH should be exceeded before price starts heading down in any meaningful way.

    But of course nothing in life is 100% certain. What if price crashes shortly and heads for a correction BEFORE reaching the 1900+ target …and how would that change the OEW count?

    Thanks for any input.

    • Magicianme, SPX no reaching the 1900+ target is a possible if the SPX records a Truncated ED and I’m sure am considering it as a possibility

      • 16golfer says:

        Thanks Jedi. I don’t see the hook down this morning. Remember I have old eyes.

      • magicianme says:

        Thanks LoLoTrader, I’m now researching truncated EDs.

        Today could be brutal for the bulls. I didn’t like the low volume and slow ramp up over the last few days, nor the negative divergence in my momentum indicator on the D1 over the last week. Even worse than the S&P was the FTSE. I suspect the ramp up on low volume on the bank holiday yesterday was just so some profit taking can happen today.

      • Magicianme, the truncation rule is a fifth wave rule and means failure of the fifth wave to move beyond the end of the third wave. Truncation can occur in double tops/bottoms, triangles/wedges, etc. Their behavior is very often missed by most trader because truncations are rare animals and traders are very focused on the completion of the more normal pattern. So lets keep your eyes open to all the possibilities or get left behind watching in dismay.

  30. Is the Russell (as a leading indicator) providing direction? I had the note on the chart about the hook down “before” I just saw the hook down this morning. We’re all chart watchers here … watching the chart here.$RUT&p=M&st=1973-01-01&en=(today)&id=p98570180905&a=319348397&listNum=7

    • pooch77 says:

      Which timeframe are you seeing a hook down?

      • The chart above is a monthly chart, Pooch, and it was the MACD I was referring to at the bottom of the chart. A confirmation is not in — the signals must cross, which hasn’t happened yet, but looks like a duck, so it might be. We’ll see … started going short again today on a few stocks (no indexes).

  31. The cumulative A-D line made an all-time high today. The Decision Point McOs was at 15.55 today, creating the 3rd consecutive upside gap for the SI daily point charting. The SI has made an inflection and is moving up again, but it needs a couple of super-strong A-D days to move the McOs into higher positive territory and thereby provide some “breakaway” gaps between SI daily points.
    The NYSE cumulative New Highs-New Lows Index continues it’s relentless climb into new high territory on a daily basis.

  32. lunker1 says:

    INT 1 = 146pts = 5 weeks
    INT 2 = 1814 = 5 weeks
    IINT 3 = 1 = 1960 = May 21
    INT 4 = .38×3 = 1904 = July 1
    INT 5 = .62×1 = 1994 = Aug 8
    or INT 5 = 1 = 2050

  33. torehund says:

    Its my thinking, (at this time) that the US involvement in Europe where Russia has historical interest is a mislead move. There isnt any historical substrae for helmeting Lituania and Estonia under Nato. In the long run Nato will be weakened as I dont think Russia will confine themselves. The results is that the original authority of Nato will be shattered once Russia takes back what the have lost. The end results is that older nato nations will loose their historical Security, when American says that enough is enough. And at that time Obama will turn his coat the way the Wind blows and there will be no stopping to the expansion of Russia. Remember GDP to debth is ultralow in Russia and Putin is backed by 84 percent…Scary.

  34. lunker1 says:

    If you can’t say it in 20 words it ain’t worth saying. Just saying.

    • torehund says:

      Well I think Obama will let Europe sail by their own as Growth there will be nowhere to be seen. So maybe the good old Communism is what suits this region the best after the coming implosion, just to keep common folks at bay and to secure some Law and order. As goes economy as goes politics, more than 20 Words but still a compressde concern from one living at the outskirts of Europe !

  35. blackjak100 says:

    I know this an OEW site, but here’s an article suggesting 1920 as a top using the Gann methodology. I don’t understand Gann, but I know Jeff Cooper is the best Gann guy out there. He gets it wrong sometimes just like the rest of us. His articles are fascinating even if you don’t understand it completely like myself.

    ED’s are unique and are not common structures. When one of this magnitude seems to be taking shape, I take notice. It finally suggests a 15-20% correction could be on the horizon.

    • winslow80 says:

      SPX 1930 is the upper boundary of the rising wedge on the weekly log chart. SPX 1947 is the 1.272 extension of the rally from the 1982 low to the 2000 high. That area initially represents high risk territory.

      NDX broke above its Mar/Apr downtrend line today. For all of its relative weakness, IWM is holding the confluence of Oct/Feb uptrend line and the 200 day sma.

      Ideally, NFP will be lousy, the market will initially sell off, reverse, and then gap higher on the open. That scenario would be consistent with Tony’s count of 1-2-i-ii subdivision. In this Marquis de Sade bull market, significant resistance has often been exceeded with a gap and go.

      • tommyboys says:

        Two points. 1) Wedges are generally shorter term
        Patterns measured in weeks or even months not years. 2) rising wedges work most of the time in downtrends – bearish markets. Falling wedges work best in uptrends – bullish markets. More often then not – but not exclusively – rising wedges at market tops are more associated with bullish flags and are bullish continuation patterns. Nice example is the one occurring in ’05-’06 prior to a blastoff into ’07.

      • winslow80 says:

        The 2011 $HUI top is a recent example (amongst countless examples) of multi-year rising wedges terminating bull markets. The recurring pattern is a relentless crawl along the upper boundary, followed by a false breakdown of the uptrend line, and then a vicious bear market after a second penetration of the uptrend line.

      • Tommyboys, you are generally correct about the wedges being flags but it pends on where the wedge is occurring within the wave count. If the wedge is for the completion of the fifth wave, whether in an impulsive/motive or corrective wave, then it defines the end of the current trend/wave journey and hello to the new trend/wave.

    • torehund says:

      Blackjack, remember that the stockmarket is geared pretty heavily towards GDP, and its just sitting there at 3 percent. Normally its when consumers loose their heads that a top is breached. No one is even Close to that kind of optimism, and its always needed to get all on Board. These pundits have been active since bull inception and at a time they will be right, however no one in the market is exhibiting the degree of happiness and care free behaviour that classically says thing s are topping out. Sure I could be wrong but its my honest take on markets these days.

    • GDP was .01 housing down 14 percent initial jobless claims up 14 k today. Only reason markets are at this level is computers and the boys of wall street. Earnings are up 1 percent for the qtr. Sure blame it on the weather. I’m a contractor in az I will blame slow business on the weather. Everyone is blaming it on the weather. Even pharmaceutical companies blaming it on the weather. I guess my 85 year old grand mother doesn’t take here blood pressure medicine when it snows. Next qtr will be better. How long have we been saying that about jobs, growth etc. it ain’t getting better. All that being said. None of it makes any difference on where stocks are headed.its a bull market, we are headed higher until we’re not. Computers, the fact there is no other place to but your money, fed has your back means risk on. I get it. What ever the jobs number is, they are low paying jobs, economy isn’t getting better govt is the back stop. Giddy up. The day of reckoning is coming.

    • John Arella says:

      using gann calculator, we should be heading towards 3000 by next September to hit the 90 degrees and the breaking point where time and price meet 🙂

      • John Arella says:

        3019 on 8/14/15 to be exact 🙂

      • torehund says:

        John post Your calculations, maybe everyone at that time will be conviced that conditions are great :)…bull only dies on optimism,

      • Using the ————— indicator I see the market at 1000 in september 2015. So Good for you if you see it at 3000. We are being manipulated by computers and the fed period. Many of times we have been on the verge of collapse in the market only to be brought back to life at the last minute. Today, the Russell came roaring back in the last 8 minutes, in order to not break technocal level. last month the Nasdaq was at 3950 on the verge of rolling over only to be saved by computers at the last minute. No growth, no jobs” no nada. Our children Are going to be burden with high dept and no jobs. Avg college education for 4 years is 100,000. Assume half have a 50,000 student loan and no job. The govt , fed can not allow this market to collapse, or for that matter correct. The economy can’t handle it. But like always, the manipulation will have a major consequence. Best of luck to you all.

      • tommyboys says:

        Sure is lots of paranoia of “manipulation”, ponzi schemes etc…on this board. Is it possible smart buyers sit at support awaiting offers knowing through experience these are relatively safe plays? Love the paranoia though – this is the mentality at tops – NOT!

      • John Arella says:

        torehund, the calculations are done by placing the date of the last significant bottom 03/06/2009 and the bottom spx number 667 on the gann calculator with 30 levels of squares and then looking for a price and time in which the spx meet in the future. the website to input the number is below:

  36. simpleiam says:

    I love the numerous Bears that are coming to this site! Hopefully good news for a bullish trend. BTW, I am NOT a perma-Bull; have been bearish and short many times along the way and made money. Not right now though. GL to All!

    • Markets will be up regardless of job numbers tomorrow. Good news is good bad news is good. Just waiting for a reason to break higher. Jobs dont matter,mjust like gdp numbers didnt matter. Markets just need the platform to move from and jobs data friday it is. The question is gap and go or gap and crap. Dow up over 100 points and sp up 14 could meet all requirements for an Ed.

      • simpleiam says:

        The ED seems a real popular forecast with many, as does the 3-3-3-3-etc. Both these tell me not to depend upon either, at least, not right away. Keep in mind, a good jobs #, IMO is 350K or better, as it was in the 1980’s. Won’t get anywhere near that number, therefore Jobs # in my mind, is already a failure. Ultimately, it will be the lack of good paying jobs that slow the economy and the markets to a crawl, and later turns stock mkts into secular Bears. Lessons learned by me because of dealing with stock market for over 40 years now.

      • blackjak100 says:

        Simple, tell us an EW count that suggests SPX 2000+. The reason the ED is popular is because all subdivisions must be zigzags. Since oct 2013, there has not be a five wave impulse higher except within a & c. I’m open to all possibilities if you can find a 5 wave impulse from 1646.

      • simpleiam says:

        bj, at this time, I’m not in favor of a 2000+ count, so scratch that. The only way, IMO, the 2000 might happen is in PV. At this time, I believe in Tony’s counts; that’s why I’m here. However, that said , I’m still holding a B wave possibility on my charts. My point was to let you and others know that perma-Bulls here are few. The same people who are bullish right now, will turn bearish when they feel the time is right. Since I’m not a daytrader, and have a nice core of stocks bought in 2009-2011, I can tell you that even if their prices are cut in half tomorrow, they’ll still be twice the price I paid for them.

        It gets tiring when bloggers apocalyptic trash and assume all traders here (or anywhere else) are the same, not to mention, deaf, dumb and blind. You post excellent info. and I pay close attn. t it. Mjt posted well yesterday. Those who post scare tactics and thingslike “TIMBER”, o “They’ll find out, are just plain spiteful. I don’t find youe in that crowd at all.

        GL to you always!

      • simpleiam, you seem like a spoiled brat. People have differing opinions, get over it, it makes a market. In addition these so called apocalyptic posts that’ you consider trash are very factual in many ways. Certain people just do not want to except the facts, every empire falls, is America exempt? Is America doing anything to better the country? Look at the facts, the country is going to hell in a hand basket. Of course you will say this is fear mongering and permabear chatter but its plain old fact. Here are some facts,
        #1 The homeownership rate in the United States has dropped to the lowest level in 19 years.
        #2 Consumer spending for durable goods has dropped by 3.23 percent since November. This is a clear sign that an economic slowdown is ahead.
        #3 Major retailers are closing stores at the fastest pace that we have seen since the collapse of Lehman Brothers.
        #4 According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 20 percent of all families in the United States do not have a single member that is employed. That means that one out of every five families in the entire country is completely unemployed.
        #5 There are 1.3 million fewer jobs in the U.S. economy than when the last recession began in December 2007. Meanwhile, our population has continued to grow steadily since that time.
        #6 According to a new report from the National Employment Law Project, the quality of the jobs that have been “created” since the end of the last recession does not match the quality of the jobs lost during the last recession…Lower-wage industries constituted 22 percent of recession losses, but 44 percent of recovery growth.
        Mid-wage industries constituted 37 percent of recession losses, but only 26 percent of recovery growth.Higher-wage industries constituted 41 percent of recession losses, and 30 percent of recovery growth.

        #7 After adjusting for inflation, men who work full-time in America today make less money than men who worked full-time in America 40 years ago.

        #8 It is hard to believe, but 62 percent of all Americans make $20 or less an hour at this point.
        #9 Nine of the top ten occupations in the U.S. pay an average wage of less than $35,000 a year.

        If facts are fear mongering than I’m guilty.

      • cmparis says:

        BlackJack – Look at Tony’s SPX chart for a count that could take us over 2000.
        I believe Tony is more conservative with his target, but with a Wave 3 = 1.618 x Wave 1 you would be very close to that milestone.

      • lunker1 says:

        Cool it Newbie

      • simpleiam says:

        newbie, are you in first grade? I didn’t tell you to cool it. LOL!

    • tommyboys says:

      The ‘tell’ of experience and knowledge for any poster is his/her level of drama or assuredness. Market experience humbles it does not embolden. Anyone posting absolutes and making emotional guarantees – in EITHER direction – wreaks of market immaturity and should be ignored. I -like you – am an investor not a trader and got bullish a bit later in early 2010. Although still bullish I would not come here and tell ANYBODY how wrong they are in thinking differently. You state your assumptions based your best assimilation of conditions and leave each to draw conclusions – no drama. Telling folks they’re gonna suffer one way or another by not heeding your advice is simply juvenile and ridiculous. Is this what we see at tops?

      • simpleiam says:

        tommyboys, if you accuse me of such, hen you’re twice as guilty of it. You can stop talking to me at any time. I won’t mind.

      • tommyboys says:

        Boy message boards sure can be misinterpreted. Not accusing you of anything – ‘ceptin 40 years of experience 🙂

        Talking about the hard hitting short attack that’s inundated the board.

      • tommyboys says:

        Simple – actually agreeing with you – sheesh!

  37. “Thus far from the recent SPX 1851 low we have: 1880-1871-1889-1880. This could be four waves up, or a 1-2-1-2.”

    I thought we were looking at a 1-2-3-4-5 minute pattern. How does 1-2-1-2 fit into EW theory?

  38. pooch77 says:

    Can someone tell me how the rut can move up 6.5 minutes in the last 10 minutes of trading?? I mean short covering??… nay hard to believe…course the markets are rigged

  39. Thanks for keeping sanity and an objective mind in this “I refuse to breakout” market ! Will they laggards now become leaders? Tomorrow needs a 30+ drop in order to erase the AI buy signal from earlier this week. Unlikely IMHO, but crazier things have happened!

  40. bhupal777 says:

    In both of Tony’s counts the market has upside potential. No market tops without irrational exuberance. So in short term odds are favoring bulls. Good luck bulls with tomorrow’s NFP event.

    Thanks Tony.

    • irrational exuberance, are you serious??????? we have seen more irrational exuberance & complacency than ever.

      • tommyboys says:

        LOL – exuberance – yeah right…with sentiment metrics in the neutral to bearish range for weeks. If you were alive in ’99 you’ll recall exuberance and how it feels. People got angry and considered you a virtual traitor if you even suggested not being long equities. GL

  41. ocaj2000 says:

    To Tony, et. al.: No, I am not sending coded messages to the Russians. I did,however, send a couple to the Romulans. The reason I have been leaving a message of “.” every day is so I can click on the Word Press block saying “Notify me of follow-up comments via email.” That way I can see the comments as they occur and delete, or, save for later review without having to constantly call up the blog and scan through.
    #/^)–!$%><… (Means have a good evening in Romulan.)

  42. torehund says:

    We are finally back on track after weeks of churn. Good work Tony !

  43. radrian6 says:

    Neither side is doing too much at this point so the moving averages and Bollinger Bands are closing in on the RUTs position — I assume this will ultimately lead to a break that will resolve the range. There’s an open gap above at 1143.7 so if the initial break is up, filling that gap would take RUT to the threshold of serious resistance. Support starts with the 200-day SMA at 1113; there’s more at 1107 and 1095-83. May expiration is two weeks away so traders can’t use it as an excuse to continue weaseling — it’s time to choose a direction even if it’s only temporary.

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