wednesday update

SHORT TERM: quiet FOMC day, DOW +45

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.2%. Europe opened lower and finished mixed. US index futures were lower overnight. At 8:15 the ADP index was reported higher: 220k v 191k, then at 8:30 Q1 GDP was reported in line with expectations: +0.1% v +2.6%. The market opened four points below yesterday’s SPX 1878 close. At 9:45 the Chicago PMI was reported higher: 63.0 v 55.9. At 10am the SPX hit 1873 then tried to rally. By 11am the SPX reached yesterday’s 1881 high, then pulled back to 1876 by 11:30. The market then drifted higher:  until 2pm. After the statement the SPX hit 1883, dropped to 1878, then rallied to 1885 by 3pm, dipped to 1879 by 3:30, and ended the day at 1884.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.30%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.25%. Bonds gained 13 ticks, Crude dropped $1.45, Gold slipped $7, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1869 and 1841 pivots, with resistance at the 1901 and 1929 pivots. Tomorrow: weekly Jobless claims, Personal income/spending, and PCE prices at 8:30. Then Construction spending, ISM manufacturing and Auto sales at 10am.

The market opened lower today after Q1 GDP came in as expected. It then got above SPX 1880, pulled back, and then rose ahead of a non-event FOMC statement. After getting above SPX 1880 again it spent the rest of the day toggling above/below 1880. With both the GDP and the FOMC non-events, we updated the Minor wave 2 label at SPX 1851. And, added Minute one SPX 1880, plus Minute two at SPX 1871. When the NDX/NAZ finally get going to the upside, the SPX/DOW will be making new highs.

Short term support is at the 1869 and 1841 pivots, with resistance at the 1901 and 1929 pivots. Short term momentum ended the day slightly overbought. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the reversal level at SPX 1874. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend probable

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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116 Responses to wednesday update

  1. Mates, with only 30 minutes till close, the two completing bearish doji trend reversal are Hanging Man or the more bearish Evening Doji Star…..There is no turning back….place your bets on the table and put your armor on because whatever comes out of that door, there will be no stopping it…GL IMO

  2. jeffbalin says:

    Speaking of fear and stress, not much right now. This blog is sitting on basically less then 100 posts per day. That’s low. When that ramps up to 200+, people aren’t sleeping at night. I forget what the record is.

  3. I think I finally heard somebody on cnbc say something that makes sense. THE FED does not want the market to come down. and the funny thing now Dan Loeb comes out and says we have certain sectors in bubble territory. Yellen put is all that matters dont fool yourselves

    • Kevin M says:

      Yeah…well can you explain how the 2010 flash crash happened? how the 2011 crash happened? Can you explain the end of year correction from September 2012 to Dec 2012? Can you you explain these wild swings if in fact your idea of the fed always on the bid is correct? I smell a perma bull here, that is about to lose face.

      You cant be serious right?

    • simpleiam says:

      Not everyone who is bullish right now is a “perma-bull”. Many of us have shorted successfully throughout this entire uptrend. I am one of them.

  4. rc1269 says:

    mkt feels like it should have been able to make more headway yesterday and today. so choppy

    • blackjak100 says:

      I think this is fairly typical price action before NFP. I didn’t look but seems to me market always wait the day before important data.

  5. Lee X says:

    Fear ? That’s the other guys problem
    Buy em sell em , sell em buy em
    People do this to make money ……right ?

    • H D says:

      I’m more of sell em, sell em, sell em, buy em

      • Lee X says:

        Haaa Hey H D

        You’re just accomdating the order flow the way I look at it , I did the same thing back in the pit but these bots don’t give ya an edge like the carbon unit brokers used to….silicon sob’s
        The mullett lives !
        Simply jive !

    • H D says:

      BTW, the mullet is making a huge comeback

    • tommyboys says:

      “Looking good Louis”

  6. blackjak100 says:

    Looks like the meat of this third wave is going to wait until tomorrow – NFP day! The only question is will the P3 top occur tomorrow or wait until early next week?

  7. radrian6 says:

    With everyone now alerted to the potential H&S top in the growth indexes, it seems unlikely to play out — it’s still possible so keep it on the back burner. RUT failed to make a lower low on the most recent down-leg which is a departure from the pattern we have experienced since early March so the ball now belongs to the bulls.

    There are a number of resistance components over head — most immediately is the downward-sloping 13-day EMA near 1133, the Bollinger Band midline near 1136, and 34-day EMA near 1146. There’s also the 89-day EMA — I know that’s not a popular moving average but it did a brilliant job of catching the lows in 2013 and now that RUT is operating below it, it’s worth monitoring as resistance. The 89-day EMA is near 1146 as I write this. Natural chart resistance ranges from 1147 to 1160 — the last two rally attempts by the RUT failed near 1160.

    The RVX (RUT volatility index) has been bouncing between 18-ish and 23-ish. On the most recent downturn, RVX tagged 23.4 and now stands near 20. Beware that RVX has been in a rising channel since late February — RUT volatility is on the rise for now and support is near 19.

    I have been calling out 1095-1083 as RUT support but, in fact, 1083 hasn’t been tested since February 5 while 1095 was tested in mid April. There are two other support components that have held the RUT together. First, the 200-day SMA which is currently near 1113 and the 23% Fib retracement level drawn from the low of November 2012 — that level is 1107.

    Bottom line … RUT has a quagmire of resistance overhead but support in the low 1100s has proven itself a few times. RUT is contained for now but from my perspective, there is still risk to the downside — monitor support diligently.

    • Kevin M says:

      The fact that most people I read and see on tv are saying what you’re saying about the H and S, tells me it will indeed happen. everybody is convinced it’s a fake set-up. I heard the same thing in 2011. That was a clear H and S pattern. Spring 2012 had a clear H and S pattern, that actually worked out. Fall 2012 had a clear H and S pattern that worked out. Not sure why people don’t believe it this time especially since the ramp up from last year.

      Listen it’s something that needs to happen in order to get to a parabolic situation next year. You can’t get parabola until a correction starts and ends with people calling for a new bear market.

      Again bonds are telling the correction is a 100% sure deal now.

      May 1st…Sell in May…..Will the perma bulls listen? Very doubtful.

      • tommyboys says:

        Sell in May is a crapshoot…
        “May thru October has been profitable for stocks 59% of the time going back to 1950”. (Motley Fool)

      • I my opinion the RUT HS does not have to happen….there is possibly a more dominant bearish pattern in the RUT….I have not at RUT much so cannot tell you what that pattern is right now. Nevertheless, NDX already completed a qualifying HS, DJI likely to complete its qualifying ED today. SPX, well it is possible that it also completed its ED today with April 4th high being an overshoot….odd by possible…..some might argue that SPX made a triple top with a the April 4th high being a failed breakout…..I’m positioning myself to buy some spy puts near today’s close if my TA’s give me the trend reversal signals….FYI – tomorrow jobs # very like to be a buy the rumor sell the news event… wonder the doji trend reversal is looking so promising

      • magicianme says:

        You can get stats to say pretty much whatever you want them to say. For every article out there quoting in-depth research that sell in May doesn’t work, there’s an article “proving” the exact opposite.
        In any case why’s Motley Fool calculating it to October? They should know that St Leger’s day isn’t in October. Maybe by moving the end date they could get the figures to match the angle they wanted to present?

      • Tommyboy – a smarter trader knows better then to buy a short position in May and hold through October….that’s just bs media talk…..a smarter trader will short and hold for as long as his TA tells him to hold and cover on trend reversal signal and switch back to long….whether it’s for 2, 3, 4 weeks etc…..I would never hold a short for that long, I would be stupid to do so, since everyone know that there will be strong bounces….gotta let the charts do the talking not the bs ws media pundits

    • radrian6 says:

      Wow … I didn’t expect all of that. I really wanted to deemphasize the H&S pattern and bring the focus towards support and resistance because I feel it’s more important. There’s no question about the overhead resistance but RUT has managed to find help around the 200-day MA. The bias is still down until proven otherwise and price is still contained until opinions are strong enough to break the containment.

  8. looks like nasdaq is about to start rocking and rolling. going to blast off in next 2 days

    • Kevin M says:

      Yep…and it will be a pump and dump action once and IF 4200 gets tagged. No way the 50ma gets taken out.

      Perma bullls NOT paying attention to the bond market today. The nail in the coffin was the 30y bond, it broke out of a multi-month consolidation pattern. Point being, any additional upward movement in the overall equity market is fake and will NOT last.


    • Rocking and Rolling is right……The bulls are finding themselves cap by a rock ceiling and getting ready to roll down the cliff….Be very afraid as the sleepy giant is being awaken from hibernation and will be looking for fresh meat to sink his teeth on…..FYI – that daily reversal doji is looking very promising today….be very afriad

  9. H D says:

    got a friendly reminder to check my opinions at the door yesterday.
    BOTs still helping poor suckers like me. Range 1,878. – 1,888.
    What are our stats for May during this bull market? My recollection, 3/4 times they made a W2 down.

    • H D says:

      SPX, 5 point hit, HWB days range. Don’t ignore the BOTS

      What about 1 @ 43.77, 2 @16.29, 3 @ 84.89, 4 @ 50.61, todays HOD is 1.382 of W1?

      • H D says:

        well, I’m glad you asked because I will tell you, Every thing is OK. The NAZ is green.

        Peace out. Headed north to hunt seals.

  10. 1.4 Trillion in QE3 for a negative 1st qtr gdp but a record high stock market! Go Federal Reserve!

    • THE fed wants higher stock prices. thats the bottom line imanewbie.your not getting a sell off or correction and if you do you better not go to the bathroom because it snaps back right away

      • truthtrader, In my opinion the fed is using the last tricks in their trick bag, I believe 2008 was the warning shot and since then the Federal reserve has been doing everything they can to prop this market up. I believe they are running out of tricks and the rest of the world is getting sick of their money printing ways. I truly believe the market is going to crash and a new currency will become the world reserve currency.

  11. looks like tech is doing the anticipated catch up, and SPX will therefore follow suit. buy-signals still in full effect. that’s all i need to know for now. simplify


  12. magicianme says:

    Volume has been absolutely pathetic today with most of Europe being closed for a bank holiday. So far S&P futures haven’t even done 500K contracts. On a normal day it would be past 800K by now. We’re running at a little more than half volume.

    Be careful about ramps up/down on quiet days. They are ideal days to setup reversals.

    • mjtplayer says:

      Holiday trading/volumes favor the bulls, more of the same tomorrow? Also, Golden Week in Japan, so another market running on a skeleton crew.

      The real action is next week, but will it be a break to the upside in 3 of 3 of 3 or a failure and “E” wave of the ED???

    • volume is secondary to price, imho. low volume (both buying and selling has been on low volume this bull market) can also be interpreted as this being the most hated bull-market as still many don’t believe in it…and thus don’t buy it…

      • simpleiam says:

        Absolutely correct, soulsurfer! Volume is always secondary to price. Actually, everything is secondary to price.

  13. Beware of the potential daily reversal imprinting it’s mark today…..just as it did on the 2nd trading day of May in 2010, 2011 and 2012…..keep buying those dips bullies….your day’s are numbered

  14. rc1269 says:

    10yr tsy rates look on the precipice of collapse. 2.4% initial target with decent chance for 2.22%. IMO.

    • tommyboys says:

      Get LOWER! May need a mortgage in a month or two 🙂

    • simpleiam says:

      Ya’ll come on into the stock mkt! Nice div payers here. A bit expensive now, but many pay much better than bonds.

    • mjtplayer says:

      Yep – completely agree. 30yr leads the 10yr and the 30yr wants to get down to 3.25%

      Other markets teetering on the edge of the cliff are gold & silver, can they hang on or will they jump off?

      The internet, biotech, social media and mo-mo stocks (garbage) leading the NAZ today. Biotech via the IBB approaching the 50% retracement at $241 – currently $233.

    • winslow80 says:

      The 10 year yield is violating the 200 day ema. The 30 year yield has already broken down from a classic eight month distribution top. Yesterday’s report showed contraction in the private sector, with the only “positive” news being an increase in…Obamacare-related health care costs! Stocks may not be correlated to the economy, but reality does occasionally intrude on bonds.

      The CNN stock market Greed/Fear index is currently 29 (Fear). The ISEE Indices And ETF Put/Call Volume shows twice as many puts as calls being purchased. Meanwhile, DJI closed at a new high yesterday.

      Rising prices accompanied by widespread skepticism. Someone should coin a term to describe that phenomenon.

      • tommyboys says:

        I think they did … “buulish”?

      • tommyboys says:

        Your data may be more real time but the P/C ratio is basically normal here with more a bit more calls than puts being bought – it looks like…?$CPC

      • winslow80 says:

        While there are many worthwhile sentiment indicators, the CNN Greed/Fear Index and ISEE All Indices & ETF have been particularly reliable barometers of impending intermediate highs. Reliable, as distinguished from infallible:

      • tommyboys says:

        …and lows then I suppose. A greed/fear value of 31 (current on CNN) would not be indicative of a high but a low as we find fear at lows and greed near tops…

      • rc1269 says:

        i can’t believe that CNN Money Fear/Greed indicator. the commentary and reading on the ‘Junk Bond’ section is completely wrong. The spread between lower quality and higher quality corporates – both between HY and IG bonds and within each segment – has compressed to post-crises lows. That reading should be the complete opposite of what it says. Hard for me to buy the rest of it knowing it is clearly broken.

      • winslow80 says:

        Over the last two years, Greed/Fear readings near 10 have represented good buying opportunities, and readings around 80 have coincided with highs. The current 30 level is consistent with the market having made a low on 4/11 and rallied amidst disbelief. While the index does not have to rise near 80 prior to the market topping, that is the way it has been working during this bull market. If we have transitioned into a bear market, then the rules change for this and other indicators.

        Insofar as the methodology of computing the index is concerned, I do not know their algorithm and therefore cannot debate its validity. I have kept track of the index because it seems to provide a more actionable insight into trader zeitgeist than the reported statistics from the CBOE.

      • rc1269 says:

        well computations aside, on the junk bond section you can see their own nifty chart on the right clearly show that the spread is low and then in the dialogue, and rating, they indicate it is high. if you’re looking for bad data with a high correlation i will be happy to tell you every time to buy and sell. i bet it’s just as accurate as theirs and just as non-robust. 🙂

      • winslow80 says:

        You are right about the words and music not matching on the junk bonds. Now look at the chart of the Greed/Fear index for the last two years and note that after it has breached 20, the index has moved back up across the range. That action has been accompanied by rising stock prices.

        Perhaps this just proves the old theorem that the key to having a good mechanism is that it contain component parts that are entirely convoluted (Hat tip: Archimedes). I don’t know why it has worked, but it has worked. The ultimate in alchemy: fertilizer in, solid gold out…so far.

        rc1269 says:
        May 1, 2014 at 12:51 pm
        “if you’re looking for bad data with a high correlation…”

        Exactly! Finally, someone who gets it!!

  15. simpleiam says:

    I like the way the A/D line firmed up a bit since the open. I’d take a 1-5 pt. gain each day on spx; would keep it from being O/B most of the time. However, I’m working CL right now. What great moves! GL to All in your trading!

  16. Tony, in your update you mention twice that Q1 GDP came in as expected at 0.1%. You even call it a “non event”.
    FYI, expectations were for Q1 GDP to be around 1.1%. Such a miss can hardly be caracterized as a “non event”.
    You should double check your sources. Then again, if using wrong data makes you still correctly decipher market direction, who cares 😉

  17. rc1269 says:

    boy, 1884 sure is a bugger. all eyes on the 10am bounce

  18. l0llapal0zza says:

    Hi Tony and the board. I have a question for the very long term count on the spx. If you look at a chart from the 1950’s of the SPX. It looks like we’re already in a massive 3rd wave that started in 2009. Where there was a long 1st wave to the 2000’s. A prolonged 2nd wave correction from 2000’s to 2009. Since then a 3rd wave. Wouldn’t that indicate a much much higher top of the 3rd wave? With the following 4th wave not breaking the 2007 highs? Then the final 5th to follow. Too naive a view?

  19. fionamargaret says:

    Thanks Tony.

    Not to be an alarmist (or possibly stupid), do you not think perhaps ocajee2000 might be sending coded messages, and perhaps should be disallowed to do so on this forum.

  20. blackjak100 says:

    The ED in the $SPX is playing out perfectly and should end at the 1929 pivot within the next 3-5 days. This would give a=c in time & price for the final fifth wave. The retracements are more shallow than normal but it subdivides perfectly 3-3-3-3-3 which is a requirement. Thursday and Friday should be strong days as iii of c takes hold. The main question is will this end P3, Cycle wave B, or something else? With no divergences in the NYAD, it’s most probable to represent a P3 top. Either way when an ED completes, price usually returns to the starting point of the ED at a minimum which in this case = 1646. I would actually like to see the 2007 high tested at 1575 which would represent an 18% correction.

    It also seems likely the QQQ will complete the right shoulder in the next 3-5 days for its 5 month H&S.

    • Kevin M says:

      Your ED seems logical indeed. However the 1929 is too high. My charting software and the secondary charting site shows 1913 to be the Top of the upper trendline. Look around and see what I’m saying. In any event I agree. First week of May should bring that 1913-20ish level in play no doubt. Don’t see why not here. Odds are high this becomes a 2006 mid term season type top, where the market topped out the first week of May. Down we go after that. Buy later in the summer, buy some leap calls on your favorite outperform stock and make bank in 2015. Sounds too simple right?

      Take care…

    • My charting TA, and per the pattern formations of the 3-3-3-3-3 ED waves, are inline with Kevin’s 1913 or lower have the greater topping probability and the 1920ish assuming we witness an overshoot while the 1929 or higher is asking for a stretch. Furthermore, beware of the indices April monthly doji’s trend reveral. Michael Myers is arriving in May.

      • magicianme says:

        Thanks for reminding me to look at the monthly again, LoLoTrader.

        April’s doji was preceded by a high churn bar for March – high volume, low range – which is a classic warning sign when it occurs at tops and bottoms. The last monthly churn bar in my indicator was at the bottom of the 2011 bear and it preceded a bull run from circa 1100 to 1900.

        That high churn bar in Sept ’11 was followed by an outside bar just like April ’14 shaped up as an outside bar to March ’14. In the 2011 case, and possibly because it was the bottom of the market rather than the top, two months of inside bars followed – what Al Brooks would call an ii – the breakout of which is a good indicator of market direction for months to come. It worked in 2011, but at the high things work brutally differently and we might not have the luxury of a couple of inside bars while we plan our positions.

        Monthly RSI shows a -ve divergence, FWIW.

        Bonds aren’t being fooled by all this exuberance and Vix complacency.

        That’s all to be viewed, of course, with the backdrop of the old wisdom about trends being more likely to continue than to change direction.

    • budfox9450 says:

      Hello. I do see a considerable Neg Diverg
      in the NY A/Dline – Granted the RSI is rather
      small, but the MACD appears to be show it
      rarther well? My own work is though, not confirming
      the SP500 pattern, from a historical view point.

      • budfox9450 says:

        The SP500 2007 top pattern, is also
        looked for a repeat pattern, wherein,
        in 2007 we crest in the summerr, P3,
        Very quickk P4, and up for P5, in roughly
        4-5 months…Bud

      • blackjak100 says:

        Yes, there are divergences in the technical indicators indicating a possible trend change in the NYAD. This is exactly what you want to see at a P3 top. However, I’m looking for a divergence with the cumulative value. In other words, I’m looking for the cumulative value to top months before the S&P does.

      • tony caldaro says:

        a possibility Bud

      • The MACD histograms on the Daily A-D chart on Sharps Chart just turned positive. However, what I am looking at is best called an oscillator and is much inferior to the cumulative Sharp chart Tony posted. That is probably because I only have access to the Free level at

    • alexhartley1 says:

      Does anyone else see a Primary III high not coming till mid-July where there’s a major Bradley turn indicator? I think this market has room to run. All we’ve done in April is work off excess. Am I completely wrong?

      • Ryan Parker says:

        If the Nasdaq and the Russell 2000 can get going on the upside I think there is a very good chance that the market has more upside into July and then has a pretty good sized correction into October. It matches my 9 month cycles but has nothing to do with the Bradley date. Cumulative A/D lines and Dow/SPX continue to be strong. What is lagging big time is new highs. We should know where this is going in the next week or so.

  21. pooch77 says:

    If one looks at the daily chart on Indu from last year end of April -May and compare to this year we could run up another 500-600 points before we top and it might take that to get small caps topping

  22. simpleiam says:

    Tony, thanks much for the Update. Always good info!

  23. bouraq says:

    Another pointless FOMC rally:

  24. tony caldaro says:

    “to be or not to be” for tomorrow =)

    • That’s the million dollar question. If this is a b wave top, it’s now or never. Sp at 1884 right at ressistance dow with a new closing high thats all we needed. Odds are 50/50 IMO. If not a b wave and we have to wait for ndx to catch up sp 2000 looks pretty good, i just cant see what is going to propell us that much higher. Answer will be clear shortly.

      • simpleiam says:

        makeabuck, I’m still holding a B wave top as a possibility in my array of charts. Bottom of C wave most likely in the 1840’s (pivot range); not much lower than the A wave.

    • I prefer blackjacks and Kevin’s scenario though

    • 16golfer says:

      And as Scarlett O’Hara would say “Tomorrow is another day”!

  25. ocaj2000 says:


  26. Commenting on this board for the first time. First of all, I want thank Tony for sharing his excellent analytical skills and knowledge with us day in and out. I would also like to give a shout out to bouraq, radrian, Jedi and almost eternally hopeful bob. Cheers!

  27. thanks Tony! AI buy signal on weekly and daily remain in effect. Weekly close below Monday’s 1850 low will negate all these.

  28. mjtplayer says:

    DOW high on Dec 31st was 16,588. DOW high on April 4th, 3 months later, was 16,631. 43pts higher 3 months later, or about 14pts/mo. If we make a run at the high tomorrow or Friday, the top of the ED, roughly 1 month after the previous high, is 14pts above 16,631 – so 16,645 is the target to tag the ED in minor c of int E to end P3. That’s just 65pts above today’s close, probably take a shot at it tomorrow a.m., as a bear I’d love to see the DOW hit that target to complete the ED, but have the S&P fall short of 1,897 and put-in a lower high and major divergence at the top. The NAZ and RUT are a mile away from new highs, so any new high in another index will be divergence of some type, whether the S&P makes a new high or not.

    Set’s up very well with “sell in May and go away” approaching. Over the past 5 years, we’ve seen a high of some type in May every year, with declines of: 9%, 17%, 22% 10% & 7.5%. Don’t see why this year will be any different, especially with the Fed tapering this summer. Even last year we got a 7.5% pullback with the Fed going hog-wild at $85b/mo.

    If you throw-out the 7.5% and 22% as low & high anomolies, the averge of the remaining 3 occurances is still a 10% – 12% correction, i.e. P4.

    • Mjtplayer, Good Post.

    • radrian6 says:

      Agree, MJT. RUT posted a dramatic 31% correction from the May 2 2011 peak to the October 4 low. RUT is in a similar position here in 2014 but is not likely to correct as dramatically. Currently, we may be forming the right shoulder of an H&S top. I don’t expect -31% but I do have a potential target area of 988 to 953 based on pattern measurement and clustered Fib retracement levels. The chop will likely continue as long as RUT is operating above neckline support at 1096-1083 but once the neckline breaks, it won’t be pretty.

    • tommyboys says:

      The fact that we’re basically flat on the year and that everyone anticipating sell in May – imho – tells me it ain’t gonna work this year. This year’s rally will just be getting underway in May.

      • mjtplayer says:

        How about this – the Fed began tapering in Dec. Since Dec, the DOW has done nothing, zero, while tapering from $85b/mo t0 now $45b/ – which is still a lot of stimulus. All this, during the seasonally positive Jan – April time frame.

        Now, we enter the seasonally not-positve May through Sept/Oct time frame and QE will drop from $45b/mo. to $15b/mo.-ish by Sept. Still stimulus, but fading fast.

        I just don’t see the beginning of a rally right here, I see a tired market that hasn’t had a 10% correction on the DOW in over 2 1/2 years (Oct ’11). It’s time…

      • tommyboys says:

        Possible Mj…my view is that the economy is slowly learning to stand on its own two feet and picking up momo. The reduction in stimulus is bullish in that we are being weened off the IV drip as we heal…time will tell.

      • Kevin M says:

        Really…Everyone? Everyone on Cnbc or even here in the internet land are saying what you’re saying. A rally is coming they all say. No way sell in May will happen they say.

        Bonds believe sell in May will work. Look at the 10y, it’s ready for a collapse. The writing is on the wall.

        Buy away if you must…

    • I agree with you mjt. I’m holding mostly cash because the risk-reward ratio points in that direction. IMHO

    • simpleiam says:

      mjt, thank you for presenting a truly ‘contrarian’ (bear) view that contained some interesting & useful information. Will keep it on the radar, even though I’m basically bullish right now.

    • John Arella says:

      More like 16750-16780 according to the long term channel, or spx 1903-1907

    • liborval says:

      you are talking about declines on what index. I cant see 7,5% 2013 May correction on SPY, DOW…max 4%

  29. rc1269 says:

    Thanks Tony. naturally, 1884 close. can’t make this stuff up. haha

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