SHORT TERM: quiet FOMC day, DOW +45
Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.2%. Europe opened lower and finished mixed. US index futures were lower overnight. At 8:15 the ADP index was reported higher: 220k v 191k, then at 8:30 Q1 GDP was reported in line with expectations: +0.1% v +2.6%. The market opened four points below yesterday’s SPX 1878 close. At 9:45 the Chicago PMI was reported higher: 63.0 v 55.9. At 10am the SPX hit 1873 then tried to rally. By 11am the SPX reached yesterday’s 1881 high, then pulled back to 1876 by 11:30. The market then drifted higher: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20140430a.htm until 2pm. After the statement the SPX hit 1883, dropped to 1878, then rallied to 1885 by 3pm, dipped to 1879 by 3:30, and ended the day at 1884.
For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.30%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.25%. Bonds gained 13 ticks, Crude dropped $1.45, Gold slipped $7, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1869 and 1841 pivots, with resistance at the 1901 and 1929 pivots. Tomorrow: weekly Jobless claims, Personal income/spending, and PCE prices at 8:30. Then Construction spending, ISM manufacturing and Auto sales at 10am.
The market opened lower today after Q1 GDP came in as expected. It then got above SPX 1880, pulled back, and then rose ahead of a non-event FOMC statement. After getting above SPX 1880 again it spent the rest of the day toggling above/below 1880. With both the GDP and the FOMC non-events, we updated the Minor wave 2 label at SPX 1851. And, added Minute one SPX 1880, plus Minute two at SPX 1871. When the NDX/NAZ finally get going to the upside, the SPX/DOW will be making new highs.
Short term support is at the 1869 and 1841 pivots, with resistance at the 1901 and 1929 pivots. Short term momentum ended the day slightly overbought. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the reversal level at SPX 1874. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend probable
LONG TERM: bull market