SHORT TERM: gap up and hold, DOW +87
Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.3%. Europe opened higher and gained 1.1%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 9am Case-Shiller was reported lower: +12.9% v +13.2%. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 1875, then continued higher to 1880 by 10am. The SPX had closed at 1869 yesterday. At 10am Consumer confidence was reported unchanged at 82.3. The market pulled back to SPX 1871 by 10:30, then started to rally again. At 12:30 the SPX hit 1881, then went into a holding pattern for the rest of the day closing at 1878.
For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.50%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.75%. Bonds lost 3 ticks, Crude added 15 cents, Gold slipped $1, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1869 and 1841 pivots, with resistance at the 1901 and 1929 pivots. Tomorrow potentially a wild day: ADP at 8:15, Q1 GDP (est. -0.7% to +1.0%) at 8:30, Chicago PMI at 9:15, then the FOMC statement at 2pm.
The market gapped up for the second day in a row this week. But unlike yesterday it held the opening gap even after an early pullback, rallied to a higher high, then went on hold ahead of the FOMC statement and Q1 GDP report tomorrow. Today’s early rally to SPX 1880 cleared the OEW 1869 pivot range, which bodes well for the Minor wave 2 low at 1851 yesterday. Then retested the 1869 pivot when it dipped to 1871. If we are on track SPX 1880 may have been Minute one, and 1871 Minute two, of Minor wave 3. However, considering the two major market moving events tomorrow, which are often volatile, we will wait one more day before posting these counts. Also, there is a down sloping trend line from the bull market high at 1897 which was touched again today: 1897-1885-1884-1883-1881. The market probably needs to gap over that resistance to move higher.
Short term support is at the 1869 and 1841 pivots, with resistance at the 1901 and 1929 pivots. Short term momentum hit slightly overbought then dipped during the afternoon. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the reversal level now SPX 1871. Best to your trading tomorrow!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend probable
LONG TERM: bull market