monday update

SHORT TERM: gap up – lower lows – then up again, DOW +87

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.5%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.4%. US index futures were higher overnight, and the market gapped up to SPX 1872 at the open. The SPX had closed at 1863 on Friday. After the open the market pulled back to SPX 1865, then rallied to 1877 by 10:30. At 10am Pending home sales were reported higher: +3.4% v -0.8%. Then the NDX/NAZ went back into selloff mode and the market started to pullback. At 1:30 the SPX had made a lower pullback low at 1851, displayed another positive divergence, and started to rally. By 3:30 the SPX had rallied back to 1873, then dipped to close at 1869.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.40%, and the NDX/NAZ were mixed. Bonds lost 5 ticks, Crude added 40 cents, Gold dipped $6, and the USD was lower. Medium term support rises to the 1869 and 1841 pivots, with resistance at the 1901 and 1929 pivots. Tomorrow: Case-Shiller at 9am, Consumer confidence at 10am, and the FED starts their FOMC meeting.

The market gapped up at the open today, but the NDX/NAZ growth indices then resumed their pullback that started on Thursday. By early afternoon the SPX had made a lower low for the pullback, from 1885, at 1851, for about a 50% retracement. The pattern is now clearly a complex double three: 1874-1884-1870-1883-1860-1877-1851. With the second three (1860-1877-1851) about double the first. With the SPX clearing the 1869 pivot again, probabilities suggest that Minor wave 2 may have completed.

Short term support rises at the 1869 and 1841 pivots, with resistance at the 1901 and 1929  pivots. Short term momentum rose after Friday’s positive divergence, only to set up another positive divergence at today’s lower low. The short term OEW charts flip-flopped again today ending the day positive, with the reversal level at SPX 1868. Best to your trading this potentially wild week.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend probable

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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91 Responses to monday update

  1. H D says:

    Range 1,870.78 – 1,880.60, sorry, what did NDX do? Staring at 1884 again, They know it.

    Newbie, don’t let those Texans get you down. You have the facts correct, they are not correlated though. At All! Say it with me…. “USA” :mrgreen:

    Wednesday will be better I promise.


    • USA, I said it with you. Now get your head out of the sand and realize that debt as money system, the system of credit as money for consumption is fatally flawed, QE is a delay of the inevitable collapse that must come from the place called peak debt. Regardless of interest rates, no matter how low, eventually the burden of debt service becomes too great to bear.This is where we are now despite zirp…there is no escape from the gravity of debt once over the event horizon. We will collapse…it is not conjecture it is mathematical fact


      • uncle10 says:

        newbie, you have been saying this for over 300 S&P points. Maybe we collapse maybe we don’t. if you think you know for sure you are mistaken……


      • Uncle, I have been preaching this for a while, yes a couple hundred s&p points- yes. Now if I was preaching this at 700 spx than you could say I’m an idiot, but I’m stating very real possibilities that could take place at any moment.


      • uncle10 says:

        Newbie, So you are trying to help us all by giving us a warning that we may collapse. We all heard you the first time. No need to keep repeating the same thing every day or week or month or year…… Thanks!!


    • tony caldaro says:

      check out the trend line from 1897-1885-1884-1883-1881 on the 5 minute
      may need to gap over that to get rid of the NQ sellers


    • simpleiam says:



  2. Whats funny is a lot of people calling for a correction and we are still at all time highs on S&P. The bull case is the market does not go down. Nothing to fear in this market. We must hand it to YELLEN she has done it


  3. That is the last post for the day, covered SHORT at 1873.75, lost about 3.4 handles.

    Re SHORT at 1879.9. only if close tomorrow above 1897, will cover my SHORT on Thursday…

    I am revisiting my thought that SPX wll touch 1928, it may NOT. I expected lot of fire work today, given ukraine is not any more issue. But nothing happened. Some big player is probably selling at this 1880 level, The player SELLS, waits for market to come back to that level and RESELLS …Loop continues..


  4. rc1269 says:

    AAPL debt deal blowout. upsized it and ratched in the pricing. their last bond deal marked an interim low for the stock almost to the day. wonder what it’ll mean this time


  5. mjtplayer says:

    Gold still looking bearish and now facing another Fed tapering. History of gold price action, using GLD, on Fed day and the following day:

    Dec 18th Fed meeting: GLD closed at $118.65 on Dec 17th and $114.82 on Dec 19th; down $3.83 or about $38/oz.

    Jan 29th Fed meeting: GLD closed at $120.95 on Jan 28th and $119.77 on Jan 30th; down $1.18 or about $12/oz.

    March 19th Fed meeting: GLD closed at $130.62 on March 18th and $127.86 on March 20th; down $2.76 or about $27/oz.

    The average move of these 3 “tapering” events is down about $26/oz. We’ll see what happens in gold from today’s close to Thursday’s close, but the history is clearly not bullish for gold on Fed tapering announcement’s.

    Stay short gold and watch the $1,278/80 area, this is now critical support.


  6. the weekly AI now producing a buy-signal with today’s price action so far. The daily AI never gave a real sell signal after the buy signal on the 16th, despite the 34 point drop…



    • 777daimon says:

      true, also my system is close to give a daily buy signal on a daily close above 1883.28 in cash SPX (of course, with continuation in the days after).


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