friday update

SHORT TERM: gap down opening, DOW -140

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.7%. Europe opened lower and lost 1.0%. US index futures were also lower overnight, and the market gapped down to SPX 1873 at the open. The SPX had closed at 1879 yesterday. By 10am the SPX hit 1867, when Consumer sentiment was reported higher: 84.1 v 82.6. Then after a bounce to SPX 1872 the market hit 1862 by 11am. Another bounce pushed the SPX to 1869 by noon, but again the market pulled back to hit 1860 by 2:30. Still bouncing the SPX moved to 1866 by 3:30, then dipped to 1863 to end the week.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.85%, and the NDX/NAZ were -1.75%. Bonds gained 5 ticks, Crude dropped $1.30, Gold rallied $9, and the USD was flat. Medium term support drops to the 1841 and 1828 pivots, with resistance now at the 1869 and 1901 pivots. Last night the FED reported a decline in the M1-multiplier: 0.690 v 0.701, but an increase in the Monetary base: $4.012tn v 3.885tn. Today the WLEI was reported higher: 54.1% v 53.9%.

The market gapped down today for the first time in exactly two weeks. The last time the SPX hit the 1814 low, bounced around a bit, and then rallied non-stop to 1885. Today the SPX hit 1860, just below the 1869 pivot range, for a 25 point pullback or nearly 38.2%. The pullback has been choppy thus far: 1874-1884-1870-1883-1860. That two minute ramp to 1884 on Thursday’s open skews the pattern a bit, or else it would be a simpler: 1870-1883-1860.

Short term support is at the 1841 and 1828 pivots, with resistance at the 1869 and 1901 pivots. Short term momentum displays a positive divergence at today’s low. The short term OEW charts swung negative today and ended there, with the reversal level now SPX 1870. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend probable

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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45 Responses to friday update

  1. 16golfer says:

    JK…can’t imagine the market giving us an “ideal” looking picture. Kinda looks like my golf set up…one shoulder lower than the other. Good luck with any positions you might have. I’m thinking the market will try to fake out both the bears and bulls with the pictures they paint on the tape. I agree with Jedi….all you have to do is look at the longer term charts and you should be careful being long. Nothing grows to the sky….


  2. 777daimon says:

    Tony in the market’s field :))


  3. Hi Tony!

    Thanks for your outstanding work.

    I have studied the Dow chart with regard to the ED wave Count, and found some interesting symmetry I want to share with you and all.
    First we have the Major 5 start at 4/10 at 14.717. Then we have the following:

    Wave A: 14.717-16.594. Three Waves. Third wave 0,6 of first wave. Second wave 0,4 retrace.
    Wave C: 15.345-16.651. Three Waves. Third wave 0,6 of first wave. Second wave 0,4 retrace.
    Wave E: 15.987-16.578-16.332. If the second wave now is complete, then we have a 0,4 retrace.
    If the symmetry persists, we will have a third wave up to 16.700 to end Major 5.

    Interestingly Dow 16.700 coincides with the longterm trendline from the top year 2000.

    Best wishes Sverker


  4. 777daimon says:

    seeing a lot of folks hoping for wars and crashes just to save their shorts 🙂
    got something for you: most of the tops end with a jaw-dropping vertical impressive spike (so we’re not talking about 10-20-30 points…but I really mean vertical impressive spike – minimum 75-100 points to the upside) … I never saw that …
    The high interest in puts at the end of this week (please check CPC , CPCE and SPY put/call ratio, also please check QQQ put/call ratio for NDX) GUARANTEES a good week for bulls next week!
    From psychologically point of view all, and I mean ALL (including all of you here, including me – God pls help me in that very moment!) will look to the upside when the ka-boom to the downside will appear… just remember last big drop when Tony and you all were still looking for some more upside but that “4 wave” was something else worse , to the downside.
    One more thing: Putin is a wise guy. He knows when to attack and when to retreat. If an attack will occur this week-end I’ll change my opinion on him. Massive military force used this week-end will not help Russia AT ALL, but it will weaken it’s position medium term.
    Considering all (not only here, but also on other blogs) are salivating for a military attack just to make some coffee nickels on others pain, expect … no massive military attack (and consequently a shorts cover) !
    On Friday we just experienced on SPX: a daily mid BB check and also a 50 dma check – very healthy for a good upside to follow! Also on VIX daily mid daily BB was checked (back-kissed from below) and 50 dma and 200 dma on VIX. And 50 and 200 dma and mid daily BB rejected VIX.
    The rising structure in SPX is not complete and SPX managed to maintain ABOVE daily mid BB and produced also a slight 60 min positive divergence.
    Just sayin’ ….. 🙂


    • bhupal777 says:

      I agree on your statement. (most of the tops end with a jaw-dropping vertical impressive spike).

      I think we are in that process already. We got 70 points upside in 6 days. That I am treating ‘a’ of E wave that Tony laid out in his SPX count. Once the current ‘b’ of E wave completes around 1840, the ‘c’ of E wave will be so strong that all weak players will be on board. Then the real pain starts for longs. So if it reaches around 1920 area by next 1 week, that is 100 point rally in less than 3 weeks. So I think we are very close. Looks like sell in MAY is going to work this year.


  5. Well done, Jedi and Uncle


  6. blackjak100 says:

    I see talk on this blog about IHS and I’m thinking how could this be? The NAZ nearly corrected 10% and top tech stocks are rolling over on good numbers. Well, the most identifiable pattern is the H&S in the QQQ IMO….


  7. gtoptions says:

    Interesting Fibonacci Fan observation for the OEW Breakfast Club to ponder as they enjoy Tony’s Weekend Update. Enjoy 😉
    P.S. This is not an endorsement of my ill-conceived blog. Just a conduit for info sharing.


  8. torehund says:

    Investors are looking for the central bank to begin raising rates by September of next year, according to trading in the federal funds futures market in Chicago.

    fits With M:Armstrongs 2015,75 downturn proj.


    • mjtplayer says:

      Yup, but Marty’s ECM contines to decline into 2014.675 (Sept) before turning up and topping 2015.75

      I’ve followed Marty for a couple years, on and off, but have been following his blog closely since last fall, very insightful. His ECM has been dead-on acurate over the past 2 years – it’s amazing. But, that scares me too. After topping 2015.75 (Oct ’15), his ECM predicts a rough 4+ years into a bottom at 2020.05 (Jan ’20). In his words, the worst economy and recession/depression since the great depression – and that incldues 2008/09 – yuck, scary.


      • torehund says:

        Yes MJT, its amazing how predictable it is; and well like Prechter or someone othe leaning towards the pessimistic projection says; at a certain point its not how you are invested, but more so where you will actually be living that matters the most.
        Like Precter (in a dry fashion) utters; “it will be a sight to see.”…when it all collapses.
        These forecasts adds a bitter taste to the last part of the bull, thats for sure.


      • simpleiam says:

        Since I believe the recession past (2008-2009) and the next to come will be deflationary, I’ve no doubt it will be the worst seen for some time. However, the deflation might affect some aspects of the global economy, while leaving others unaffected. It’s impossible to tell. I would like to see the Bear bottom in 2019-2020 though… Right as I retire. Shopping list is ready.


      • tommyboys says:

        Simple, if we’re in a super depression from 2016-2020 you won’t much have to worry about retirement as you’ll have been out of work for a few years by then…just say’in.


      • simpleiam says:

        tboys, you didn’t hear ‘super depression’ from me, so read my post again & try someone else. I will be retired w/cash.
        Bye & Simplify!


    • torehund says:

      There is some Caves in Mount Roraima in Venezuela that would serve as Prechterishly cosy huts during the downturn. Amazingly the stone structure is the oldest known to man together With some South African mountanhides. Never Earthquakes there and if you look at it it has the kiel of a ship so whatever happnes its petty safe. However Venezuela isnt the country of Choice YET.


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