thursday update

SHORT TERM: another bungee cord day, DOW unchanged

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.3%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.4%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 weekly Jobless clams were reported higher: 329k v 304k, and Durable goods orders were higher: +2.6% v +2.2%. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 1883, ticked up to 1884, and then immediately began to pullback. The SPX had closed had closed at 1875 yesterday. Before 10am the SPX closed the opening gap when hitting 1871, then bounced to 1877 by 10am. Another pullback quickly moved the SPX to 1870. Then after a rally to SPX 1883 by 11:30 the market started to pullback again. At 2pm the SPX hit 1875, bounced to 1880 by 3pm, then dipped to close at 1879.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.10%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.75%. Bonds were flat, Crude added 55 cents, Gold rose $8, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1869 and 1841 pivots, with resistance at the 1901 and 1929 pivots. Tomorrow: Consumer sentiment at 10am.

The market gapped up at the open today, led by the AAPL related surge in the NDX futures. Then after a few minutes of trading the gap up and surge all dissipated, as the action looked like the recent nearly 10% correction in the NDX/NAZ. Just past 10am the market made its low for the day and then rallied. After a straight up rally from SPX 1816-1885 over the past week, the market has pulled back: 1874-1884-1870. Today’s low should have ended Minor wave 2.

Short term support remains at the 1869 and 1841 pivots, with resistance at the 1901 and 1929 pivots. Short term momentum went from oversold, to quite overbought, to below neutral today. The short term OEW charts remains positive with the reversal level now SPX 1872. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend probable

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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105 Responses to thursday update

  1. kvilia says:

    Question for gurus. What is correlation between general markets and gold movement in current environment if any? I’m looking at gold but not sure if Primary IV will have any impact on gold.

  2. bobhopium says:

    Dow 1 min…complex h&S…Bullish imho.

  3. Market down gold up silver fails to rally. Setting up a nice short entry in silver next week. There will be big money made when 19 breaks.

  4. Lee X says:

    Hey guys what’s up ? Been out of town on a J C Penny’s male underwear fashion shoot but was just wondering if anybody has an opinion on the Ukraine here ? Nobody ? Fine, I’ll try the internet blogs haha
    Hey uncle sorry but I’ve been away from the markets and now headed to MSU for tomorrows spring scrimmage game so I’ll be back Monday to get back in the swing of things. Go Green !

  5. uncle10 says:

    I used to trade forex. I think I have 3 trades the last 3 or 4 months.. Is the dollar ever going to move!?!?! This might be the tightest range in the last 20 years…….
    Good weekend all.

    • hrmny358 says:

      DXY has a tractor beam on 80, but $/NOK is on the move, double bottom and a break of a down trend, looking for 6.12 and possibly 6.30. Deflation will start to affect the Scandies first.

  6. With due respect to Tony, I know Tony is doing good work of educating everyone on board, But ..But See today’ update
    “the market has pulled back: 1874-1884-1870. Today’s low should have ended Minor wave 2………………”

    I am not the only one with failure rate of 60% (this does not mean Tony has failure rate of 60%)

    The question is what is in store for the weekend..Putin has not said anything, which is the bad news..Once he opens mouth, market will tank further 10 points on SPX.

  7. 777daimon says:

    + div on 60 min spx

  8. Very nice IHS setting up on COMPQ — Valunvstr and GTOptions have also mentioned forming. Also, price is coincidentally (not!) sitting right at support, which has been a line in the sand on the chart there for awhile. See below. Time to cash in my shorts and wait for next move. Pigs get slaughtered.$COMPQ&p=60&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p31684324037&a=347539933&listNum=7

  9. lunker1 says:

    TLT leading diagonal complete from Dec low?
    target would be 78.6% ~ $103.5

    • jobjas says:

      AprpmFri, 25 Apr 2014 12:29:52 +0000 19,2011 at 8:35 p04 Edit

      But but…..what about my short…just yesterday you said “Expecting more downslide” and “Ready for the Drop” ….Beware to all… following these charts will cost you dear.

      AprpmFri, 25 Apr 2014 12:57:40 +0000 19,2011 at 8:35 p04 Edit

      you sucker you continue to read the blog to criticize – learn something and contribute something. But then … again BUT ( stooping to your level) you cant even understand simple English that this is not trading advise. And obviously you could not read yesterdays chart with targets)

  10. bobhopium says:

    Maybe the Last chance to get aboard aboard the great Summer 2014 runaway train…. AIMHO.

  11. 777daimon says:

    I think I’ll get long(er) 😀 here in the 1864-1866 spx area… good setup.

  12. when the HD says the SPX got rejected at 84 the HD means biz! :mrgreen: C=A 1859 ES
    Have a great weekend all.

  13. bobhopium says:

    Hi All…….my thoughts, maybe of interest to others.
    Have covered shorts now as per yesterdays chart…now seeing Bullish reversal events including flushing action and pos/div (hourly) but future still looks like it wants to flush again before I try getting long here…. Aimho and all subject to change… GL and good health to all.

  14. mjtplayer says:

    TLT stills look great, continue holding. Even better, the 30yr leads the 10yr and today we have new recent lows in the 30yr yield at 3.43. Bonds heading higher, yields lower – still targeting the $115 – $117 ballpark for TLT.

    In stocks, longs are nervous about something breaking out over the weekend in Ukraine. Prudent risk management, if long, if to reduce risk. If we don’t get our daily 10am – 11am POMO rally, then it could be a “gap and go” market, selling all day with little relief.

  15. bhupal777 says:

    Thanks Tony.
    Wave ‘a’ of Wave E is materializing on SPX. If it is following that path then could be 30 to 40 points pullback coming.

    • mjtplayer says:

      We failed to break through resistance at S&P 1,883/84 area on Tuesday and again yesterday. Going down to test the lower support area surrounding the 1,841 pivot.

    • simpleiam says:

      I’m also looking for min2 bottom in the 1840’s. Waiting it out in cash. Really looking forward to a 3. GL to All!


  16. According to the primary labeling of the $SPX chart I believe Tony is saying we are completing Minor 2 of Int 5 of Major 5. That means we have only minor 3 and minor 5 of Int 5 as the remaining upwaves in Primary 3. Does anybody think I understand that correctly?

    • jeffbalin says:

      That’s the Dow count, and we’re in int 3 there. Min2 int 3 maj 5. Spx in final int e wave to end primary 3. Could be in a b wave of minor a maybe or maybe in minor b

      • Thanks Jeff. This “Min2 int 3 maj 5. Spx in final int e wave to end primary 3” agrees with what I described above as the $SPX count but the Dow count is different. However, Friday’s action puts into question the $SPX count and I haven’t looked at the effect it has on the Dow count.

  17. lunker1 says:

    Hi Tony,
    Minor 2 on INDU less than 23.6% retrace of minor 1?
    Not a Minute 4 of Minor 1?

  18. Does anyone believe puttin is pissed off that reagan won the cold war and caused Russia to split apart. Almost like he has something to prove. Syria was almost a big problem, but puttin stepped in and avoided a us attack. Almost like he is toying with the us. Ww1 started almost 100 years ago to the date. Except war wasnt declared by Europe until July. And again we have a eastern European country at the spot light. Not to mention problems with north Korea planning on launching a long range missile. Israel not happy with what’s going on in the middle east. Alkada having meetings or rallies in broad day light. Almost like the world is testing the us. Interesting times for sure.

  19. bouraq says:

    Rising channels still intact:
    #spx #djia #rut #gold #oil #audusd

  20. right on, Tony, in a bullish count: Need breakout above 1885
    it can also be the top of B, in a bearish count (a-b-c down to A at 1814)

  21. esvxm says:

    Tony thanks for the analysis!
    S&P 500, interesting 54 trading day pattern. Is it the repeat of 2007? Will the pattern hold? We shall find out soon.

  22. valunvstr says:

    I’ll say it AGAIN, QQQ and IWM froming HS at the SAME TIME as GDX and TLT forming BULLISH patterns. This is NOT a coincidence. IHS for GDX. TLT broke out and backtest a consolitation range and QQQ and IWM are just trying to get back to their 50SMA while weekly TRIX, MACD, etc etc etc are all massively broken down. The upside is limited and at best next week is the end. 10%+ correction coming!

    • pooch77 says:

      V,i stated earlier today daily charts looks like they are all ready to rollover.I am with you ,will monitor on you on trending waves

    • Valunvstr, TLT is looking bullish, but needs to break out of its weekly downtrend to confirm (see below).

      I didn’t see the HS on QQQ and IWM (looked a 60-min chart). I could kind of see it on QQQ, but it wasn’t IMHO a clear formation. It is best if the formation is visible on a daily chart. That said, they are both, undoubtedly, in downtrends … and price needs to get bullish soon or else the SPX and DOW will follow them.

      GDX is too soon to buy IMHO, as price needs to stay above the 10EMA on the weekly (see chart below) to support a buy. There is, however, lots of consolidation — either distribution or accumulation. Too soon to know which one yet, but definitely smart to keep watching them daily, as the market is at a juncture. I’m seeing lots of stocks giving up their gains and/or breaking long-term uptrends — not good. In fact, I am short a few stocks and they are providing nice gains. I’m not long anything at this time. Good luck all — watching market like a hawk!

  23. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    Hourly IHS on NDX, RUT & COMPX. That’s what I’m seeing. 😉

  24. S&P 500 Information sector is displaying positive signs, closed up at 593.19 and in the previous three sessions, it’s been higher. Money flow I been fairly strong. S&P 500 Price Percent Oscillator is suggesting the index is moving much higher. As Tonys analysis suggest. Next step is too pinpoint those stocks, within the S&P 500 with best potential. My observations, Information Technology stocks, within the index. Major four stocks, IBM, GE, GM and Boeing, don’t appear they will perform very well as they have done in the past. Apple Inc. Is part of this information technology sector, I’m betting on Pixelworks Incorporated PXLW horse… Earnings out on May 8, 2014.

    Technical perspective: Balance of Power indicator, by TC 2000 is my favorite. Solid green 100% currently! Price Percent Oscillator is next, it appears to be suggesting it might be time to buy.

    I called SEC and spoke with gentleman with PHD. He basically, said, Companies will start buying up their shares, 30 day in advance on their earnings date. So, Pixelworks Inc. Seems to under accumulation at the present time period. 22 million shares outstanding, very low, Apple Inc reported great earnings, sector is red hot! Analyst who follow Pixelworks, are bullish on its future earnings growth, so, one can draw conclusion. My conclusion, its worth the risk, I’m not going to state stop loss, that’s subjective with each investor, its my understanding, Options are available on this stock. Do your own homework.. I just find this stock very compelling currently.


  25. Tony, thx for all the time & effort you spend on this blog.

    Jedi, thx for your insights as well & your always-pleasant manner. What are your stop-loss levels for your TSLA & NFLX shorts?

    • Yes, thanks, Tony! You’re the best in the north, south, east and west!

      Financialreportsblog, I actually just responded to your yesterday’s blog within the yesterday (Wednesday) blog posting … so you can go back there and check so I don’t junk up today’s board. 🙂 Feel free to ask questions. I don’t mind any of them or I wouldn’t post charts. Thank you for the kind words. I apologize for getting to you late, but I work (in the computer industry) so I’m usually nothing less than swamped during the day.

      • Just saw that, thank you ma’am … if you keep doing so well with your trading, you’ll be able to retire early for sure! You & Tony are of the same cloth: kind, patient, and generous in both spirit and time. Have a nice evening.

      • LOL! Here is why: I retired in 2011 (retired early, as I did do well in the market). You would see the retirement on my linkn. I got bored, however, and went back to work after 11 mos of retirement. My co-workers say I don’t get any more retirement parties next time I retire (they gave me three last time). I lasted 11 mos in retirement only because friends/family told me to give it a year. I guess I’m still too young/have too much energy to retire. Husband doesn’t travel. I may retire again next year and move to S.C. Youngest son is looking to move there. If he does, we follow. I need to get old enough, too, to start touching my 401k. That is the account with the biggest gains from long-term positions. Can’t touch it yet.

        Bless you for your very kind words. Tony has me beat, however. It is why I frequent his blog. He is quite special as we all know. May you also have a nice evening, my friend.

      • That is too funny, Jedi! Couldn’t have happened to a nicer person. FYI, I think you’d like SC – over 20 of my uncles, aunts & cousins live/retired there & love it. Mainly for all the great golf courses. 🙂

      • Don’t be too eager to get old.

  26. budfox9450 says:

    ref. Silver – wow, that was a close call. + Div.
    Now – time for DSX to run?

    • mjtplayer says:

      Interesting day for gold & silver, reversing on the Putin comments after making new recent lows. Strange though, GDX was down today.

      • budfox9450 says:

        The underlying pattern is key. + my own
        BoYu indicator on a Buy signal. OEW’s
        is leaning toward the Bullish view as well,
        it appears with the MACD +Div underscored.;

      • Well looking at the past couple of months gold and silver have pretty much traded opposite whatever the stock market was doing, and they did it again today so nothing has really changed. If the market is really going to new highs then gold and silver go lower in the coming days, otherwise they go higher. What’s interesting to me is the relative weakness of silver. It’s trading opposite stocks but the drops are significantly stronger over time than the pops, so if the bull market goes on then the bottom will fall out of silver in the coming months as it eventually breaks major support at around 19.00. I don’t know when that will be, but it pretty much has to happen unless the trading pattern changes. My take at this moment is the move higher off of 19.00 might be the last squeeze before the breakdown, but time will tell. If Tony is right and today was a quick minor 2 in stocks then today’s rally in precious metals was a one day short squeeze and the bottom may fall out sooner than people expect. I’m not sure an hour drop is enough for a minor 2 low though.

        Miners may be a slightly different story, but they aren’t going to have a sustained move higher when metal prices are continuing to fall, at least as far as I can see.

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