SHORT TERM: market drifts higher, DOW +41
Overnight the Asian markets opened gained 0.3%. European markets were closed for an extended holiday. US index futures were higher overnight, but the market opened unchanged at SPX 1865. After a push up to SPX 1871 by 10am, the market started to pullback. At 10am Leading indicators were reported higher: +0.8% v +0.5%. At 10:30 the SPX hit 1863, and then began to drift higher. Around 3pm the SPX hit 1872, and closed there.
For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.30%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.70%. Bonds gained 1 ticks, Crude slipped 5 cents, Gold dipped $5, and the USD was higher. Medium term support rises to the 1869 and 1841 pivots, with resistance at the 1901 and 1929 pivots. Tomorrow: the FHFA index at 9am, then Existing home sales at 10am.
Hope everyone had a good holiday. While travelling I had the chance to review the previous SPX/DOW/NAZ bull markets, going back to the early 1980’s, in OEW terms. This was to look for subtle differences between the indices. The review was worthwhile as I uncovered a few new characteristics. As a result I have updated the DOW charts to reflect my findings. This count is now somewhat in alignment with the NAZ/NDX counts: two more uptrends to complete Primary III. We will continue to also monitor the potential diagonal Major 5 count, posted on the SPX charts. One of these two will probably get us to the Primary III high.
During the beginning of the previous uptrend, we were surprised that the SPX was rallying 50 points before having any notable pullbacks. It did this twice, and then the rallies started to shorten. The current rally from last week’s SPX 1816 low is already 56 points, without a notable pullback. Looks like a new uptrend should be underway.
Short term support is at the 1869 and 1841 pivots, with resistance at the 1901 and 1929 pivots. Short term momentum is displaying a negative divergence. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the reversal level now SPX 1857. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: probably uptrending
LONG TERM: bull market