SHORT TERM: gap up then bungee cord afternoon, DOW +146
Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.2%. European markets opened lower but gained 0.3%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:30 Retail sales were reported higher: +1.1% v +0.3%. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 1828, ticked up to 1829, then began to pullback. The market had closed at SPX 1816 on Friday. At 10am Business inventories were reported higher: +0.4% v +0.4%, the SPX hit 1823 and began to rally. Around noon the SPX hit 1834, but the NDX was already heading lower, and the market began to pullback. Just past 3pm the SPX closed the gap at 1816, then rallied into the close to end the day at 1831.
For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.85%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.70%. Bonds lost 8 ticks, Crude slipped 15 cents, Gold rallied $9, and the USD was higher. Medium term support rises to the 1828 and 1779 pivots, with resistance at the 1841 and 1869 pivots. Tomorrow: a speech from FED chair Yellen at 8:15, the CPI and NY FED at 8:30, then the NAHB housing index at 10am.
The market gapped up at the open today, rallied close to the upper end of the 1828 pivot (1835), like it did on Friday, then pulled back throughout the afternoon until the last hour. The leader on the downside was again the growth NDX/NAZ indices, as the NAZ made a marginal lower low. It appears this market needs to clear the 1828 pivot range, then the 1841 pivot range, which was major support, before it would appear the downtrend has bottomed. A rally in the NDX/NAZ would certainly help. The short term wave structure is quite choppy, but the SPX 1814 area has held support in successive days.
Short term support is at the 1828 pivot and SPX 1814, with resistance at the 1841 and 1869 pivots. Short term momentum rose above neutral off Friday’s positive divergence. The short term OEW charts remain negative with the reversal level now SPX 1840. Best to your trading!
NOTE: Will be taking a road trip over the holiday weekend: Friday markets are closed. Will not be available Thursday, Friday, Saturday or Sunday. May be able to do the Thursday update, and Weekend update, but no guarantees. Options expiration this week is Thursday.
MEDIUM TERM: downtrend
LONG TERM: bull market