thursday update

SHORT TERM: tumble Thursday, DOW -267

Last night FED governor Tarullo gave a speech: Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.5%. European markets opened higher but lost 0.4%. US index futures swung above/below unchanged overnight. At 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported at their lowest level since 2007: 300k v 326k, and Export (+0.5% v +0.6%)/Import prices (+0.3 v -0.2%) were reported higher. The market opened two points below yesterday’s SPX 1872 close, dipped to 1868, then hit 1873 before 10am. After that it was all downhill for the rest of the day. With only two 4 point bounces the SPX dropped to 1840 by 1:30. At 2pm the Budget deficit was reported lower: -$36.9bn v -$106.5bn. After a bounce to SPX 1848 by 2:30, the market dropped to 1831 just after 3pm. Then another bounce to SPX 1839 before the close, before declining again to end the day at 1833.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -1.85%, and the NDX/NAZ were -3.10%. Bonds gained 12 ticks, Crude slipped 30 cents, Gold rose $7, and the USD was lower. Medium term support drops to the 1828 and 1779 pivots, with resistance at the 1841 and 1869 pivots. Tomorrow: the PPI at 8:30, then Consumer sentiment at 10am.

The market opened a bit lower today, made a slightly higher high, and then began to pullback. The growth indices NDX/NAZ had a slight down open and continued to fall right from the beginning of trading. While those indices were declining 1% the SPX was only down a handful of points. But when they broke lower they took the whole market with them. After yesterday’s extreme short term overbought reading we expected a pullback. But not a selloff. Currently the DOW count appears to be the most probable count for the Cyclicals, while the NDX/NAZ remain in Intermediate wave iv. The opportunity to realign the four major indices appears squandered. Kudos to those that caught these swings!

Short term support drops to the 1828 pivot and SPX 1814, with resistance at the 1841 and 1869 pivots. Short term momentum ended the day extremely oversold – rally next? The short term OEW charts swung negative at 1860, and the reversal level is now SPX 1858. Best to your trading this volatile week.

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend

LONG BTERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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190 Responses to thursday update

  1. lunker1 says:

    C=A on INDU

  2. oneandonlyuniverse says:

    was short this from 268 covered today now long …big pos div …just like housing stocks exactly 9 yrs ago….going to get a huge blow off rally here then the game is over!!!

  3. IMHO this is the end of minor 2, that started in the beginning of january.
    Minor 2 in SPX is making an expanding flat and it is possible to count 5 waves in the present C-wave:
    1897 – 1837 – 1873 – 1819 – 1835 – 1814.

  4. John Arella says:

    Expanding triangle finished, expect a quick move next week to over 1900 on spx

  5. RDC says:

    Expecting HUGE Gap-Up Monday.

  6. magnus1234 says:

    weak longs get spanked….thats part of the game. It hurts. Going long a friday? what i fool I am… we are getting close to a bottom though since im fingering on the sales button.

  7. kvilia says:

    All right, bullheads, when should I cover? Seriously?

  8. trondack says:

    Does anyone know about the Blood Moons? Related?

    • John Arella says:

      Only affects the political arena and wars, the first blood moon affects the north (Russia) look what’s going on with them lately, the second affects the east (middle east countries), the third affects the south (china?) and the forth affect the west (USA), so its bad news September 2015 for the US (another war?)

  9. fionamargaret says:

  10. lunker1 says:

    NAZ Weekly 34EMA = 4008 = LOD

  11. John Arella says:

    Option 2 – Expanding triangle ending at 16,000

  12. I am not saying this because I am long but SPX targeting 1902 (Trust me). Anyday, next week, SPX will erase losses..Will say what happens next ONLY IF spx touches 1902

  13. lunker1 says:

    The NAZ is now in control. All trades will stops out if NAZ breaks today’s low

  14. blubrd67 says:

    “High cash, low leverage…bull markets don’t end this way. We think bigger 10-15% correction more likely in autumn as Fed QE ends and rate-hike expectations grow,” says Hartnett, in a note dated April 10.

  15. Bit hard to see from my iPhone screen (still no internet…), but looks like + div on hourly RSI5 and MACD, as well as on daily RSI5 developing for DOW, SPX and NAZ.

    May mean nothing, but IMHO intermediate d/minor c is ideally at 1813 (c=a), and one more lower low after this bounce would seal the (+ div) deal for sure, but is not even necessary.

    IMHO, 1813 would frustrate many bears who are looking for a retest of 1738 and will frustrate many bulls who got stopped out below 1840, before intermediate e/intermediate iii starts to new ATHs (marginal -1920s!?- if it is indeed an ED).


  16. RDC i said VIX printed a black candle stick. market was down over a 100 points. how did it work? you said the VIX did not predict a down turn? of course not because 3% on S&P is not a down turn its profit taking. VIX measure S&P vol am I correct?

    • rc1269 says:

      let me get this straight. when it *did not* predict a 3% decline, that is ignored because 3% doesn’t qualify as a “selloff.” but now that stocks are bouncing a little, that confirms its value as a short term predictor?
      my whole point is that the vix is valueless as any short term predictive measure. that still holds true. if you want to talk about longer term vix trends and longer term mkt trends, i’m listening. otherwise it’s garbage in, garbage out.

      • VIx itself works just ask the Najarian brothers. they have done very well. VXX and UVXY are pretty much losers no matter what.

      • “Najarian brothers”, LOL…

        OMG, that is too funny, you believe those clowns? you are in trouble if you believe them.

        Why don’t you timestamp every time they suggest buying VIX as protection, and then check it out later.. keep a note of how much your protection would’ve cost

      • rc1269 says:

        if you can’t hack it in the NFL, become a vol trader. hah

        oh well, whatev. i’m done talking about the vix. i’m not getting paid for this so i can only handle so much. hah sorry. tony is a more generous man than i am.

  17. lunker1 says:

    Correction over?
    +D on 60min and Daily.
    Red set completed ~1820 “like I said” LOL 😉
    White, Blue and Green sets pointing up should now be in control.
    Need to see how price does at Yellow LT line and Red median line.
    Orange might provide a pause for smaller retraces.

    • lunker1 says:

      wondering if “all that” chop was an expanded flat for Wave 2?

      Long term for the bulls nice 60 min candle action off the 127.2 extension of 667-> at approx 1823

  18. bobhopium says:

    Hi all…Closed all shorts today and have gone long(1824/26)….Charts suggesting a rally imo. and maybe a good time to front run the crowd, for the rally into opex next week.. Aimho and GL and good weekend to all.

    • Me too somewhat, 1835 should be HOD, if so, then Bad looking Monday, and flat the rest of the week… if ~1837 breaks to the upside today, then I agree with next week upside theory.

  19. magnus1234 says:

    Higher highs and higher lows on Russel and NASDAQ. Advance decliners moved from -1500 to -380 combined with big bulk buys at the bottom. I think the C is there. Worry is ONE (5min) +1000 $TICK. If we get another one outside the 5 minute range probability increases even more for a bottom in place.

    My last one for today. 🙂

  20. magicianme says:

    Bit of a ranging market so far today, but based on the volume of activity (even at this early stage in the day it looks like this will end up being one of the largest volume days in the year so far) and the fact that the price isn’t ranging, I’d say that we’ve put in a temporary bottom. But I’m looking forward to Tony’s W/E update.

  21. elmer510 says:

    Thank you for the update Tony !

    Just a little confused about the outlook. Now the support at 1841 is broken and SPX is headed lower. If Intermediate c is a correct label it should at least go down to 1738 like iM a.
    But if IM c is a triangle, could it find support and finish at a higher level like 1800+. Is that a possible sollution?

  22. magnus1234 says:

    Trading FYI: Morgan S bought 200 SP500 futures @ 1813…and wants another 200. These are rather big bulk buys.

  23. lunker1 says:

    Several intraday.887 on indexes and ETF

  24. winslow80 says:

    Profitable call by theartofchart on palladium.

    Thank you for sharing your work.

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