wednesday update

SHORT TERM: gap up and go kind of day, DOW +181

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.2%. European markets opened higher and gained 0.4%. US index futures were higher overnight, and the market gapped up at the open to SPX 1858 but started to pullback. At 10am Wholesale inventories were reported higher: +0.5% v +0.6%. Just past 10am the opening gap closed at SPX 1852, but the market started to drift higher awaiting the FOMC minutes at 2pm: After the minutes were released the market took off to the upside. Heading into the close the SPX hit 1872, the high for the day, and closed there.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +1.10%, and the NDX/NAZ were +1.75%. Bonds gained 4 ticks, Crude rallied 80 cents, Gold rose $2, and the USD was lower. Medium term support rises to the 1869 and 1841 pivots, with resistance at the 1901 and 1962 pivots. Tomorrow: weekly Jobless claims and Export/Import prices at 8:30, then the Budget deficit at 2pm.

The market gapped up at the open today, filled the gap, then moved higher awaiting the FOMC minutes. When they were released the market rallied above the 1869 pivot and held it into the close. Thus far the market has rallied 35 points without one meaningful pullback. Previous rallies, during the 1897-1837 decline, were only 10 and 12 points. Also today the NDX/NAZ led the rally higher, for the first time since what appears to be mid-March. It is also interesting to note that the FED had a secret meeting on March 4th, two days before the NDX/NAZ ended their uptrend on March 6th. Guess it was only secret for the general public.

Short term support rises to the 1869 and 1841 pivots, with resistance at the 1901 pivot and SPX 1927. Short term momentum ended the day extremely overbought. The short term OEW charts turned positive with the reversal level now 1862. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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196 Responses to wednesday update

  1. M1 says:

    It is obvious now, However, I will keep saying it. The NAZ is at a very important long term resistance.
    Even when the spx/dow still look fine, the NAZ is having its most important correction since nov 2012. That corrections was 389 points. This one is 380 points so far.
    A very short term rebound could be around the corner, but I believe a panic selling is needed before we get a short to medium term bottom.
    GL to all.

  2. Short term charts turned positive just before the indices tank yet they turned negative a few days ago just before the runup.
    Latest week-end update Caldaro pushing his end of bull market still further away to potentially 2017 when it was first supposed to end Q2 or Q3 2013 before it was copiuously moved forward several times.
    Most latest downtrend confirmations have marked to the day the end of the so called downtrend misleading people as to the next direction of the market.
    Caldaro’s current bullish vs bearish count must have been at least 80%/20%. But conveniently he never assigns likelyhood to his counts in order to be able to play both sides of the fence. Now he can claim he was correct in calling the correction when in fact he has been wrong all along calling for much higher prices during this up wave.
    Despite all the constant mistakes and ill guidance, most of his faithful followers will die saying he provides a prefectly tradable road map. Quiet amazing really.
    Anybody saying this site help them trade profitably is lying. Have rarely seem so much laughable crap wrapped up in faked legitimity.

    • RDC says:

      Why are you here telling us this? anybody asked you for your input? Anyway, I do not agree with your comments.

    • scorp100 says:

      Do you realize, how choppy has this market been in last few weeks?

    • lunker1 says:

      Erka, you don’t read very well do you?

      Until 1877 was hit again caution was there.
      Loss of the pivot at 1861 was an easy stop.

      “However, we would like to see the SPX clear the 1869 pivot to feel more confident that this decline is over. We suspect, as long as the NDX/NAZ hold their lows the SPX/DOW will resume their uptrend. Should the NDX/NAZ drop lower, the SPX/DOW will likely confirm downtrends of their own”

    • Why are you here then? I am sure you know how to trade. Just go trade and leave us alone. We will never learn🙂

    • kvilia says:

      Yeah, that’s not nice. Of course he is more bullish than bearish but he never guided in one-sided manner. This is not a fair remark, and I am the one who’s been staying short since beginning of the year and not buying into the long side. I’d apologize at least for the tone, not for the opinion of course.

    • H D says:

      Carlo, dude!, I don’t agree with how this is worded or presented at all. There is no need to make it personal. Be civil. I do agree that the counts appear less objective lately. We saw a massive break down in Tech charts, DOW lagging, and 3 of 3 up presented for SPX? Also the b wave at ATH is difficult to swallow for me. I’m not mad at Tony for the market action though. 1901, 1840, 1869, 1828. Those are his proprietary pivots that he has shared graciously.
      It seems anytime no alt count is carried the market finds one.

      Inflection point. Time to focus. GL all

      Tony, as always, Thank you.

    • 7dayyss says:

      Carlo Rambaldi?, it’s just Pio in another name, right truthtrader! Have to change your syntax so your not so recognizable!!! He answers a lot of your questions and then you pull this? Come onnnn mannn!!!

  3. This is last post for the day. Have shot in my foot, covered remaining short at 1838.9. It went down to 1830.1. No more open positions on SPX

  4. cicelyalaska says:

    Tony it’s coming up on the time frame for your original “world is ending” crash you predicted last year. Should be interesting to see if you were actually correct on that.

  5. lunker1 says:

    Thank you Tony for the comments regarding the 1869 pivot.

  6. Kisshu2 says:

    Tony or someone did we just finish the first wave down or did the 3rd start alrerady?

  7. kvilia says:

    I said this already – not a time to be a hero; too complicated for me with all these waves, this is what I’d rather look at:
    Perhaps we are in P IV, and it will only be quick enough to allow P V top out by Fall. This would definitely correlate with the drawings provided in the article. IMO.

  8. Is this a big bounce I see?

    If not, then tomorrow will be awesome……

  9. torehund says:

    Squeeze alert in GNK:)

  10. makiori says:

    Peraphs only peraphs……

  11. RDC says:

    Oh No! What happened?

  12. budfox9450 says:

    My take is, 1833 is the support level to monitor. OTW,
    we are below the 1841 pivot. now what?

  13. Wonder if something is going on we don’t know yet… Russia ,N Korea?

  14. rc1269 says:

    Hey Tony – just for old time’s sake….
    What would you peg the probability that we just posted the bull market high? I only ask because it’s pretty well aligned in time and price with your [prior] fairly long-standing projections

    • blackjak100 says:

      RC, I’m not tony but bull markets cant end on a 3 wave advance. I’d expect 1900+ as tony has posted.

    • tony caldaro says:

      the bull market high? very slim

      • magicianme says:

        Sorry, I don’t understand. Very slim chance that the previous high was the high (i.e. that there’s still some upside)?

      • rc1269 says:

        yes sir, the bull market high. recent wave action (6mo’s) notwithstanding, the timeframe and recent SPX price high both fit well with your longstanding target from the past couple years. so just figured I’d check in on it… ya know.. just in case. 😉

    • budfox9450 says:

      The past message we saw (here), from the PUG was an
      Apr – May high….also, take a look at the hourly
      RSI divergence being setup…

  15. winslow80 says:

    Stopped out on gold and gave back most of yesterday’s profits on ES. The Ultimate Warrior is having a better day than I am.

  16. Kisshu2 says:

    can anyone dissect the wave count today?

  17. ariez5 says:

    Anyone have an explanation for the wild divergence in GLD and GDX today?

    • blackjak100 says:

      No, but the count I have for gold suggests a turn towards $1200 first. GDX leading the way?

  18. jobjas says:

    sorry yesterdays update never got posted

    • perversionofthemean says:

      Nice chart. That’s what I’m hoping for.
      The rally of the average aggressive growth mutual fund tickled the underside of their long trend line at the close yesterday, and the small H&S bottom on NDX reached its upside target at the close, so today’s action is consistent. I intended to short, but didn’t expect a rip downward early. As usual, perfectionism helped me miss yesterday’s UP and today’s DOWN! Studies show that men over-trade, and women are more patient. I just need a slap upside the head to take action.
      Both NQ and ES charts show the H&S *top* put in over night and this a.m.. Not as obvious on SPX. I chose to watch my NDX chart this a.m., because it was so clear over the last two days. The NQ and ES would have shown the breakdown more readily.

  19. magnus1234 says:

    This is not at all any serious bear move. NYSE advance-decliners tells a different storry. Its a bad hair day nothing more than that.

  20. mjtplayer says:

    Nobody is talking about the bond market. 10yr trading at 2.62% and looks to finally break the 2.6% area – which sets-up C=A to 2.4%. Yes, a 2.40% 10yr. 3% down to 2.6% in A, 2.6% to 2.8% in B, now in C down – minimum target is 2.4% with a shot at 2.15% (C=1.618 of A). Also, from the larger move off the bottom at 1.4% up to 3%, a simple 50% retrace is 2.2% so don’t be surprised with a 2.2% +/- 10yr. Yup…

    TLT continues pushing higher, up on heavy volume today at $110. Next stop is $112/$113 then a pullback to $109/$110 before moving up to $115 – $116 where I think it tops-out. Stay long…

  21. infantguru says:

    Nothing has changed yet since my last post.
    About to board a flight, so will keep it short.
    Its still a wait and watch phase. I wouldn’t short till SPXU closes above 59.44.

  22. magicianme says:

    While I would like to see a correction in the S&P, I’m afraid the bull run is not yet over. Does anyone here follow Rashke waves (wolfe waves)? On the 27th March low Rashke waves were predicting price moving to near 1900 by the 4th of April – they predict not just the price, but when that price should be achieved. Today’s price drop is not yet complete but if it goes down to circa 1820 that would make for a perfect setup for a rise to 1875 by the 14th (as per the theory).

    • magicianme says:

      The market’s reached that kind of level today (1 PM GMT) which sets up nicely for the rise to 1875 by the middle of next week. A sharp drop from here invalidates the wolfe wave pattern.

  23. gtoptions says:

    What happened? LOL
    So I only made 1/2. should have sold at 5 up. Live and Learn.
    Kudos to the Bears. Thanks.😉

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