SHORT TERM: gap down opening then lower, DOW -167
Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.8%. European markets opened lower and lost 1.4%. US index futures were lower overnight, and the market gapped down at the open to SPX 1860. The market had closed at SPX 1865 on Friday. The decline continued in the opening minutes to SPX 1854. Then the market rallied to SPX 1864 just past 10am. After that the market headed lower again. At 2:30 the SPX hit the 1841 pivot exactly, then tried to rally. At 3pm Consumer credit was reported higher: $16.5bn v $13.7bn. At 3:30 the SPX hit 1853, then pulled back again to close at 1845.
For the day the SPX/DOW were -1.05%, and the NDX/NAZ were -1.00%. Bonds gained 6 ticks, Crude slipped 50 cents, Gold dropped $7, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1841 and 1828 pivots, with resistance at the 1869 and 1901 pivots. Tomorrow: Congressional testimony from FED governor Alvarez at 10am, then a FED board meeting after the close.
The market opened lower, and continued to decline throughout the day. Around 2:30 the SPX had fully retraced the recent 1843-1897 rally when it hit the 1841 pivot. After that it started to rally from an extremely oversold condition. For the SPX uptrend to remain intact it has to hold the OEW 1841 pivot range. The short term count on the SPX is a bit vague at this point. It has been quite choppy. Nevertheless we updated the chart to the most feasible count at this time. The NDX/NAZ still have positive divergences, so it is possible we may have just seen the worse of their correction today. The DOW alternate count was updated as well. Unless we get a downtrend confirmation in the SPX the four major indices should align.
Short term support is at the 1841 and 1828 pivots, with resistance at the 1869 and 1901 pivots. Short term momentum hit its most extreme oversold level in quite a long time, then just oversold. The short term OEW charts remain negative with the reversal level at SPX 1869. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend weakening
LONG TERM: bull market