friday update

SHORT TERM: gap up opening then selloff, DOW -160

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.3%. European markets opened higher and gained 0.7%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 monthly Payrolls were reported higher: 192k v 175k, and the Unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.7%. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 1897, then began to pullback. The SPX had closed at 1889 yesterday. Within the first hour of trading the SPX then dipped to 1889, bounced back 1897, dipped to 1892, then hit 1897 again just past 10:30. After what appeared to be a diagonal triangle the market started to pullback. The pullback continued into the afternoon, with only 4 point bounces along the way, and the SPX hit 1863 at 2:30. Then the market tried to rally. At 3:30 the SPX hit 1871, but pulled back into the close to ened the week at 1865.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -1.10%, and the NDX/NAZ were -2.65%. Bonds gained 22 ticks, Crude rose 85 cents, Gold rallied $17, and the USD was lower. Medium term support drops to the 1841 and 1828 pivots, with resistance at the 1869 and 1901 pivots. Today the WLEI was reported higher: 53.0% v 52.9%.

The market gapped up to a new all time high today. Then hit that high two more times as the NDX/NAZ were being sold from the open – just like yesterday. After about an hour the SPX/DOW gave way as the NDX/NAZ continued to trend lower. By the end of the day the SPX had travelled from the 1901 pivot range to the 1869 pivot range. Early this morning we had counted five waves up from the recent SPX 1843 low: 1864-1853-1894-1883-1897. And we labeled today’s high the end of Minute wave one. Apparently it appeared to have ended in a diagonal triangle fifth wave, and the market sold off sharply. More on today’s action and its implications in the weekend update.

Short term support drops to the 1841 and 1828 pivots, with resistance at the 1869 and 1901 pivots. Short term momentum ended the day extremely oversold. The short term OEW charts swung negative at SPX 1880 and ended the day negative, with the reversal level now 1878. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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55 Responses to friday update

  1. magnus1234 says:

    Tony. I think your count is corect but for the minute i being @1893.8 instead of 1897.3. What we saw Thu-Fri was the corrective way from minute i. Have good weekend.

  2. torehund says:

    Sometimes I feel pretty lonely on this Elliot wave analysis, how nice would it bee to meet and exchange ideas and incentives; sometimes as patterns allow I divert and see pretty enormous escalations( like I did in vivid dreams in childhood) of escalating patterns; one I just have to convey is the NAZ, so practically if you have the 4 waves from major wave 2 bottom and squeeze them together you get just 2 waves of wave 3 fulfilled and major 3 of 3 on await(gap heaven)…. Love this site and a meeting with fellow OEW masters and students would be a dream come through…OEW is an extension of understanding of life, then as long as I keep myself from being bossed and chased out of bed at 7; I am fine.
    The philosophy around EW and its implications, furthermore fosters plenty of reasons far beyond making a living, in appreciating the hidden geometry of being, probably some decades ahead of our strives here. For the aftermath of Tonys blog which uphold information of intellectual scrying I know that science eventually will catch up and if we in here could be part of that process it would be great, however we don’t seek to be confirmed by society and thats why we are here right…Thats the beauty of it, you know but don’t need to be persuasive, kind of underpins the ambiguous science that we love.

    • The mathematical rules of the mystery of our universe along with mass psychology of the business dealings, Stock a Market per say, are visible to humans in the form of beauty.

      Pentagram Star: Five sided geometry shape.

      Basically, once, Elliott Wave five wave pattern is fully complete, Regeneration process unfold. A new star is reborn!

      President Obama, recently, made statement in public, after visiting Catholic Pope, I found interesting.

      Intuition is the clear conception of the whole at once. — Johann Lavater 1741-1801 Mystic and Philosopher

      Some even called her poet!

      Cremation of Care! Was basically a play in 1920’s I believe, today’s its a annual event I believe their number is 322

      The sum of roulette table numbers equals 666

      2009 SPX low was roughly 666.00

      Traditionally, every seven years, was called the year of release, when, farmers would allow their fields to rest from planting. When, debts were forgotten and slaves were set free!

      Sort like, bailout that unfolded in 2000.

      2009 Crash! Doesn’t have to be observe as point that the New Star that was regenerated has to collapse too.

      Stock market never enters depression, it has never revisited the lows of 1929?

      Why, would it revisited the lows of 2009?

  3. Tom already predicting Monday will be up day. I’m not so sure.. Maybe Tuesday.

  4. John Arella says:

    Super cycle Diagonal Triangle on the SPX, pretty nasty stuff once it over because it will quickly decline to 666 on SPX

  5. Possible fractal setup…

    “If today’s market action is a one higher degree fractal of last Friday’s Wave 2 correction, then the SPX could gap up in a big way at the opening on Monday and begin Upward Wave iii, where, 1.618 resistance would be near 1947..”


    Thanks Mr. Caldaro

  6. Monday, IBM, GE, Boeing, and GM 2-5-2014 lows, two 21 trading cycles, 3-14-2014 IBM low of $182.21 question is the last eight trading days, A-B-C wave four? Or potential Wave 3 in progress lower?

    Uptrend price channel from 2-5-2014 is still intact, price channel 3-14-2014 low $182.21 still remains intact.

    Question: Monday has the potential to be pivot low day, it also, has potential to pivot turning point high day.

    Currently, I’m leaning toward, 21 trading day cycle low for Monday.

    Turn around Tuesday, event in the making, if IBM, GE, Boeing and GE hold their bullish patterns. If you observe, a IBM been making higher highs, from Jan 6th to March 25, 2014

    Weekly, IBM failed to make higher high! Inside week bar!

    Next week, 13 trading week from 1-17-2014 weekly high. And 21 trading weeks from 11-22-2014 weekly high.

    In my honest opinion, best to remain on the sidelines, unless, your skilled trader.

    Lets see, what Tony come with it this weekend, in his Analysis!


  7. torehund says:

    Before monday do your charting on the bulkers..something huge may happen, and sorry to repeat my messages so often, but in spite of the negative sentiment it may cause (piggybacking on myself) I adhere to the blogs intention; educate and prosper with fellow stock traders. (think its big time NOW).

  8. M1 says:

    Tony, how important are the lows of 2014 at this point ? For OEW

  9. John Arella says:

    Touched the top channel and corrected big time, I guess this is a serious channel🙂. Warned you guys today at 9:11 am but nobody took me seriously😦

    • CygnetNoir says:

      Dude, I don’t take mySELF seriously – how can you possibly expect me to take YOU seriously … if you want to be taken seriously, I suggest you talk to Lee. That guy is ALL business🙂

  10. Thanks, Tony — looking forward to your weekend update. Been a super day for holding tech/bio shorts. 🙂 Have a nice weekend!

  11. bhupal777 says:

    Thanks Tony. Stopped out of XLF and sitting on sidelines for now. Also sold GDXJ position with good profit. Though it went up today it didn’t show 3rd wave characteristics. So don’t want to hold the position over the weekend. One silver lining is my long dated PUT options working great that I bought on my short ideas (CELG, GM, DG, WFM and GM). If 1840 is broken all bullish bets are off. I am hoping you are going to shed some light on today’s selling action in your Week end update.

  12. lunker1 says:

    a bullish backtest of prior support?

  13. radrian6 says:

    Another tough day for the RUT. On the daily chart, RUT is in its third leg down of this choppy downtrend. The pattern dimensions are as follows: 1213 to 1172 (41 points); up to 1208 (37 points); down to 1147 (61 points); up to 1194 (47 points); down to 1150 (44 points so far). You can see from the pattern, the down-legs and rallies are getting longer which means the channel down is broadening (falling megaphone). Assuming the pattern holds, the next touch on falling support would be around 1127 by the middle of next week. However, the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the February rally is at 1132 so RUT may react from that level. Whether the bounce comes from 1127 or from 1132, it should take RUT at least into the mid 1170s. Keep in mind, all of the above assumes the pattern holds.

    April expiration is on the 17th so RUT may flatten out after the bounce completes. In March, the RUT monthly options settled at 1205.14. During the course of this bull market, next-month settlements have exceeded -50 points on only four occasions — that gives RUT a very good chance of settling above 1155.

    • radrian6 says:

      A little more on RUT settlements — I only looked at points rather than percentage. From the March settlement of 1205.14, a 50-point drop is about 4.15%. During this bull market, RUT next-month settlements have exceeded -4.15% on nine occasions — there have been 60 settlements so RUT has an 85% probability of an April settlement above 1155. We’ll see if the statistics hold …

  14. RDC says:

    Thanks Tony.

  15. blackjak100 says:

    Ty tony! The only number anyone needs to know is 1842. Any other technicals do not matter.

    Anyone have any statistics on when the S&P hits an ATH and closes down more than 1% on the same day?

  16. blubrd67 says:

    You mentioned in the weekend updated you expect that NDX/NAZ might confirm downtrend this week. Did it confirm with today’s action?

  17. Buy the Dips! Federal reserve monetary policy, still the same.

    Load of truth, in this video!


    • Spx 1906 by April 14, 2014 Wave 1 = W5 Ending diagonal triangle!

    • torehund says:

      Economy is really pretty simple, if stocks or commodities and whatever gets too cheap there will always be a final resort buyers of bargains; the governments around the world. To sway the public into thinking it isn’t shipwreck robbery the call it “stimulus”.
      However if the governments buy stocks too soon and rises prices of everything the public will suffer, strike riot and then destabilize the countries. If they do it to their favor, prices will rise peri pass and wages will rise concomitantly.
      The worker and consumer will always be the mule chasing the carrot….and thats also the aim of governments, making the population optimize their work-performance to fuel an ever growing non producing governmental control force, until a state of decompensated failure occurs; smart governments never let this happen as their days in power will cease.

  18. mike7x says:

    Thanks Tony. The Weekend Update, the Final Four, baseball and apple pie. And beware of gators.

  19. esvxm says:

    Thanks Tony for the analysis. Dow retreats from all time highs.
    S&P retreats from the pattern formation discussed:
    Bonds find support from the trend line:
    More on the weekend.

  20. rc1269 says:

    Thanks Maestro – happy weekend!

  21. thanks tony! looking forward to your weekend update and possible surprising, enlightening, insightful new counts.

    For now; still 5 up and 3 down, translating in higher highs and higher lows.
    Assuming the SPX count, and rounding numbers for simplicity lets have some fun with fibs
    intermediate i: 1650 to 1850 (200 points),
    intermediate ii: 1740
    projected intermediate iii: 1.38 to 1.62x extension = 2015 to 2065
    projected intermediate v (Primary III): 1.76 to 2.00x extension = 2090 to 2140

    minor 1: 1740 to 1885 (145 points)
    minor 2: 1840
    projected minor 3: 1.00 to 1.24x extension = 1985 to 2020
    projected minor 5 (intermediate iii): 1.62x extension = 2075 (coincides reasonably well with the projected intermediate iii target)

    minute i: 1840 to 1895 (55 points)
    minute ii (assuming 0.62 retrace) : 1865
    projected minute iii : 1.38 to 1.62 extension = 1940 to 1955
    projected minute v (minor 3) = 1975 (coincides reasonably well with the projected minor 3 target, as well as with the 1962 (?) pivot

    all bets are off with break below 1840.

    • torehund says:

      Thanks Tony, and once more to you Soul for being analytical on a hammering down day ! Thats the attitude we have to further cultivate, in a mind over emotion strive on this blog, and in stock-trading in general.

    • Thanks for the thorough EW count/analysis. How much below 1865 can minute ii go before that count is nullified? It has already fallen to 1863. Do you use OEW or conventional EW?

      • trade below 1842 nullifies the minute i and ii count (2nd waves can’t trade below the start of a 1st wave)

        I am an OEW apprentice.

        ps: as mentioned these are all rounded numbers for simplicity sake so in this case 1863 = 1865. in the grand scheme of my fun-with-fibs +/-2 points ain’t a big deal in this case.

    • tony caldaro says:

      Like your enthusiasm Soul!

    • hucky2 says:

      Good stuff Soul
      That is exactly what I was thinking. (minute ii low)
      Though I’m not expecting a new high again for a few weeks, maybe around April opex.

  22. magicianme says:

    Tony, may I ask what you mean by the “short term momentum” you mention in your daily updates. Which momentum indicator are you looking at and what time frame? Many thanks for all your hard work.

  23. JK1987 says:

    Tony Thanks
    This got to be Minute wave two.;

    Buy into the close 1865, 1/2 position, UPRO. Stop 1854.

  24. Lee X says:

    Thanks Tony

  25. Key figures… IBB ETF 218 must hold ,if not all hell breaks loose… as if it hasnt already

    Lightened up the load quite a bit today, first time in quite a while… managed to miss most of the carnage but at the end of the week I finally got slapped upside the head today with a few drops.

    Good time to watch, not react…

    1857 KEY for uptrend, if that breaks next week then these walls may finally come apart, the SP 500 and DOW have been masking underlying carnage for weeks… have to take those generals down at some point before you can think about bottoms

    • CygnetNoir says:

      Good eye, 3X. The IBB closed below the neck line of what some folks call a “head and shoulders” topping pattern. 200 day simple MA is at 218, and if there were any buyers left who felt they had been “left behind” that would be a price where they would presumably step in to defend the biotech bull. And if you look at the up day/down day volume on the ETF, you will see what clearly looks to be wholesale distribution.

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