thursday update

REVIEW: market pulls back, DOW unchanged

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.3%. European markets opened higher and gained 0.2%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported higher: 326k v 311k, and the Trade deficit larger: -$42.3bn v -$39.1bn. The market opened three points above yesterday’s SPX 1891 close, traded in a narrow range for the first half hour, and then began to pullback. At 10am ISM services were reported higher: 53.1 v 51.6. The pullback continued into the afternoon when around 1pm the SPX hit 1884. Then after a bounce to SPX 1889 by 1:30 the market headed lower. At 2:30 the SPX touched 1883 and then began to rally. Heading into the close the SPX reached 1890, then dipped to end the day at 1889.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.05%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.85%. Bonds gained 1 tick, Crude added 75 cents, Gold slipped $4, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1869 and 1841 pivots, with resistance at the 1901 and 1962 pivots. Tomorrow: monthly Payrolls at 8:30: est. +185k to 195k.

The market opened at an all time high, then must have sensed that Fibonacci relationship and negative divergence and began to pullback. The pullback looked quite normal and reset short term momentum from quite overbought to under neutral. From the recent SPX 1843 low we can now count four waves up: 1867-1853-1894-1883. The NDX/NAZ appeared to be under selling pressure from the opening this morning. GOOG, which started trading split shares today, helped early being up 3%. But during the day even the GOOG turned negative for a while. At today’s high the market hit the lower end of the 1901 pivot range (1894-1908). A rally to the upper end or higher should follow when this pullback is done.

Short term support remains at the 1869 and 1841 pivots, with resistance at the 1901 pivot and SPX 1933. Short term momentum ended the day just above neutral. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the reversal level now at SPX 1880. Best to your trading Payrolls day!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

This entry was posted in Updates and tagged , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

169 Responses to thursday update

  1. the freat think about OEW is even if the EW rules are violated we can always stay objective knowing a fed speaker can send us right back up next week. my guess is uptrend remains in tact

    • torehund says:

      ..some choppy rodeo to shake off the doubters. Think bulk is in 3 rd wave beginning and BDI has already done 2 of the waves of the 3rd. 3rd of 3rd should be pretty strong.
      Awaiting some stimulus effort where the Chinese communist party think their stocks are a bargain not to be missed….Good weekend to el Capitan and all crew here on board !

    • Federal reserve made it perfectly clear, They will continue to SELL PUT options on Treasury Bonds. Janet Yellen made this very clear. From 2000 to 2014 this has been the standard monetary policy of the Central bank. They do this to keep interest rates low.

      Deflationary depression, or correct term, deflationary recession, latter term is what’s used today, rather than former used in 1929 period. Someday, United States of America, must reduce its debt, or borrowing, or default on its obligations, promises being made by President. $17 Trillion now in debt.. Janet Yellen, not going to stop the trend that been in place since around 2000.

      Federal government buying insurance policy basically on its debt. Premiums of the insurance policy, at some point in time, will force government to enact, fees, taxes, ect.

      Stock market should continue higher, where else would these big money managers around the world, put their funds?

  2. Moderating the wrong comments again, losing it?

  3. Daily SSTOs did give a sell-signal today (note: not uncommon for a 2nd wave), the 20d SMA is at 1865 today, which is also around the aforementioned 1738-1842 trendline support today, and 2nd waves do also often retrace back to the previous 1st wave top, which is in this case 1866. Regardless, there were 5 waves up off the 1842 low: 1867-1853-1894-1883-1897, with the last wave being ~0.6x the 1st wave; a common relationship between a 1st and a 5th wave.. c-wave or minute i???

  4. bobhopium says:

    Algos just checked their calender and are front running Sell in May.

  5. another 10 days in a row like this and I maybe break even enjoy the weekend all. spend time with family most important thing in the world.

  6. pretty bearish day (price and sentiment wise), let’s see if the trendline connecting the 1738 low and the 1842 low, today at ~1862, holds?

    • pimacanyon says:

      from a candle perspective, we have a very ugly daily candle and a classic reversal weekly candle. I don’t think this will turn out to be a one day event.

  7. llerias7 says:

    Tony is not this retracement becoming excessive if we are in a minor 3 of Int.III ?

  8. Tony

    This price action looks bearish , possible we topped ?

    I’m thinking a bit about this wave count:

    We are in a wave 4 correction (A-B-C) and we just made B highs before C down to 1740-1750 to end wave 4 correction,,, how does it fit to you ?

Comments are closed.