wedneday update

SHORT TERM: market nudges higher, DOW +40

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.6%. European markets opened higher and gained 0.1%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:15 the ADP index was reported higher: 191k v 139k. The market opened one point above yesterday’s SPX 1886 close, dipped to 1884, then rallied to new highs. At 10am Factory orders were reported higher: +1.6% v -0.7%. At 12:30 the SPX hit 1891, then began to pullback. At 1:30 the SPX hit 1885 and began to advance again. Around 3:30 the SPX hit 1893, then dipped to close at 1891.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.25%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.20%. Bonds lost 15 ticks, Crude dropped 40 cents, Gold rallied $9, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1869 and 1841 pivots, with resistance at the 1901 and 1962 pivots. Tomorrow: weekly Jobless claims and the Trade deficit at 8:30, then ISM services at 10am.

The market opened at a new high today, made a higher high, then pulled back. Thus far we can count three waves up from the recent SPX 1843 low: 1867-1853-1893. At SPX 1893 the third wave of this advance is about 1.618 times the first, and there appears to be a short term negative divergence with this new high. Should this set up, we would expect a normal 9+ point pullback to follow. We continue to watch the NAZ throughout the day for any signs of weakness, and noticed the DOW matched its all time high today at 16,588. The SPX is nearly within the OEW 1901 pivot range too.

Short term support is at the 1869 and 1841 pivots, with resistance at the 1901 pivot and SPX 1933. Short term momentum ended the day with a slight negative divergence. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the reversal level now SPX 1876. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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103 Responses to wedneday update

  1. uncle10 says:

    This market is not acting healthy to me ie. not getting ready to start an uptrend. Getting back below the break out level should be bearish. They like to give them the gotcha move ( yup they got me), before a big move the other way. gl

  2. llerias7 says:

    1883…possible bottom of this move…shall see…

  3. Caldaro I have a question for you would a break below 1841 end the uptrend? Obviously we are not even close just to clarify

  4. lunker1 says:

    Assuming my minute 3 started at the low on Friday and ended at this mornings high, today’s retrace was dead nuts on 23.6% of minute 3.

  5. H D says:

    nada more than 3 point rallies today, let’s watch that before happy hour.

    Ha Lee, not singling anybody out. Ur right though :mrgreen:

  6. lunker1 says:

    Watching TLT for a possible re-short at the median line at 108.30.

  7. llerias7 says:

    The expected minute ii of minor 3 (Int.III)…

  8. lunker1 says:

    The .887 sell algo was triggered in SPY this morning. Got the gap up as needed for the 5thwave and then at 10:02AM SPY hit the.887 intraday retrace to the penny at 189.19. Cheap short with a $.04 stop. Also triggered in DIA at 165.70 to the penny and IWM at 118.44 one penny shy of the .887

    • budfox9450 says:

      Would be interesting for you, to offer your
      talent towards a few individual stocks. This
      would close a gap, that investors would
      otherwise have to make. Take Crude Oil,
      or PBR…My thoughts…Bud

  9. John Arella says:

    Nasdaq did not break through its daily moving average today so I think that makes this move suspect.

  10. CygnetNoir says:

    Hey Tony, watching the indices and the former leaders and momo stocks have been acting and the way the Dow failed to make new highs but the techs didn’t yada yada, I am getting a bit of Q1-Q2 ’94 deja vu – you know? Sort of like we’re in a baby bear market but no one realizes it just yet. Not a big bear, just a little baby who will soon go to sleep, but a bit of bear nonetheless.

  11. JK1987 says:

    Here at 1886.2, covered shorts, flat.

    JK1987 says:
    April 2, 2014 at 8:58 am
    1887+, add largest to current position, all in.

  12. budfox9450 says:

    DSX annual report is now available at their
    website. Couldn’t help but note, they have
    not made money, in what looks like a long

  13. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    Testing the Breakout
    SPY ~ DPP @ 188.72 DS1 @ 188.30

  14. lunker1 says:

    VIX & TLT green = SPX pullback?

  15. Not that it matters but the 4 billion feb trade balance will hurt Q1 gdp. But the stock market is not the economy. we trade on FED’s word

    • tommyboys says:

      Thank God for the Fed! Bernanke was a prodigy in saving the economy. Happy and thankful we live in the USA in these times…

      • Yep Bernanke really helped those people who cannot find jobs and the 44% of people who live on Long Island who are underwater on their homes, the record people on food stamps, He has done a great job of creating a mirage by inflating stocks that normal people do not own.

      • so how about the people who cannot find a job , struggle everyday with rising cost of living which is the other 90 % percent of america should they thank God for the fed and Bernanke because he goosed wall st and made the rich richer?

      • RDC says:

        Right, I think Fed (Bernanke + Yellen) deserve annual “Fed Day”. I wonder what retail stores will sell that day?

      • tommyboys says:

        Just think of the alternative. What if Bernanke never blessed the office?

      • Thanks Tony and Tboys, people seem to forget how bad things were getting, all over the world…

        I wasn’t smart enough, or should I say, persuasive enough to help take full advantage of it, but I shouldn’t be so bitter that some people did, and are happier now…

      • tommyboys says:


      • подветренный says:

        + 32 Tony
        My grandparents on both sides said that depression was pretty awful and I’m certain today’s manscaping soft little cry babies wouldn’t be able to handle it .
        thank you Mr Bernanke

      • H D says:

        Interesting, sounds like we have moved on from the FED has ruined our future with QE to the FED saved the day. #noted

        BTW- Tony, great call on the pullback.

      • подветренный says:

        Hey H D

        Hope ur not talking to me cause I hate everybody and everything . Ben (we’re buddies 1 st name basis) did what he was born to do all while holding his nose.
        But ur buddy Obama jinxed the Spartans and tha’ts a fact jack ;P

      • подветренный says:

        I agree 100 % Tony

      • подветренный says:

        On the whipper snapper comment …dang that’s #4 later

  16. Thursday, Netflix premarket, wild trading! Two trades just cancelled, at $329 confused what to make of Netflix trading volume, daily, thru pre market.. Feels like Dan Quisenberry style of set up! Submarine style pitch! Same pitch Royals threw Yankees, Randolph to clinch 1980 AL Pennant in 1980. Today, I’m hoping to at least hit the ball with Netflix..

  17. Tony according to your charts im not sure if I understand them right but…..

    What timeframe do you see the larger wave 4 Primary IV starting ?

    I know for sure that per statistics – June is the worst month this year 2014 per mid term elections. Also statistics says we will top out in mid April this year before starting a large correction into summer.

    What do you think about this ?

  18. Hi Tony

    What do you think about this count taking us to 1890-1895 before topping – then a sharp wave c down to end wave 4 to around 1750.

    Chart attached here

    • blackjak100 says:

      Same count I’ve been discussing of late but you have a nice chart attached. It won’t gain much traction until 1842 breaks.

  19. budfox9450 says:

    PBR is now Bullish, but the chart
    pattern, interestingly. Looks alot
    like the Shanghai index…

  20. lunker1 says:

    If the fork holds here’s a INDU target.

    • 777daimon says:

      hi Ted,
      better be careful in this great bull market …. 200 DMA wasn’t hit since Nov 2012 as I recall.
      last time when 200 DMA was not hit 2 consecutive years was in 1927 and 1928 years.
      what was next in 1929 we all know.
      oh, one more thing, learn to behave please… calling others ‘stupid’, ‘psychotic’ ,,,, is not the way you will attract customers …. such a language won’t help you !
      Watch out with the complacency, also ….. your level of complacency is rampant! And considering where $CPC, $CPCE and VIX levels are … LOL!

      • chrisk44342 says:

        Agreed daimon, but you can’t deny Prechter’s sense of timing. I swear the man is snake bit. But this again, is what happens when you try to predict the market.

    • buddyglove says:

      Thanks TED…Totally agree on Prechter, the man is a complete Numpty. Basically he charges his subscribers to show them how to flush dollars down the toilet.
      He is a complete knob-jockying Buttmonkey.

  21. Thanks tony, this market still likes 1900.

    I did see some very SHOCKING studies, about the market crashing every 7 years in the last 20 years wow. Check it out here =>

    It means there could be another one comes soon, if this pattern keeps up. Hmmmm

    • This Gann analyst, claims there has never been 6 year bull market, in deflationary depression.


      • Interesting psycology in this market, in the dot come bubble erroe I got caught up in all the europhia, I lost some money but at the time i didn’t have much,so it didn’t matter. Then I’m the 2007-08 crash I bought Washington mutual, Lehman brothers assuming the govt wouldn’t let the fail, well they failed as we all know. Great track record so far I know. So here we are in 2014. Do I and maybe my generation have cold feet, because we have been burned twice in the last 13 years. So the question I ask. Myself, I’m I a bear because of the past? Or have I learned something over the years. Man I wish I could answer that question. It’s been a long 5 year plus run. Lots of targets between 1894-1911 short term. So back to,psycology, if the market breaks above 1911, my guess is those long bulls will be in the driver seat and short covering and by the by the dips will drive this market sky high. On the other hand, a quick drop may cause panic in this bull and cause a cascade type drop. Either way, I think it’s show time. Best of luck .

    • lunker1 says:

      “It means there could be another one comes soon, if this pattern keeps up.”

      hey it’s happened TWICE so it’s a really solid pattern!

      it’s SHOCKING what some CRAZY BLOGS will do to try to get subscribers.

  22. RDC says:

    All estimates above 1900+ have to hold temporarily until we have decent pullback which is about to occur any day now.

    • 100% agree, 34 trading hour cycle at the close today, I’m no expert on Gann lines, but from 1987 lows 230 spx one Gann line crosses at around 1906 spx then we have .618 fib price pattern from 1987 lows to 2000 highs, which .272 extension from 2000 highs take spx to 1906.

      1941 spx reminds me of the bullish projections back in 1987.

      1941 SPX is perfect text book, but real life.. Exogenous forces! Seem to come into play.


  23. thanks tony!

    Bollinger bands on the daily are expanding, while price is “hugging” the upper BB; thus showing considerable strength.
    Daily FSTO long and strong not showing any signs of a reversal in price direction
    Daily SSTOs indicator long and strong not showing any signs of a reversal in price direction
    Daily MACD made a bullish cross today
    Daily MFI increasing since the last 1842 low; money flowing into the market.
    etc. the list of bullish technical indicators is long.

    • Dow hit a new high today which is all I have been waiting for. SP also made a new high, Compx and Ndx hit there highs a few weeks ago. Personally, I think the markets are all in sink now for a major decline. first test should be 1856-1866 by Friday . Best of luck everyone, should be a fun few weeks. If im wrong, I wont be the first to eat crow. Its been eaten so much latly by others, I hear it doesn’t taste so bad.

    • magicianme says:

      On the other side
      – the last couple of days have been marked by extremely low volume. Low volume at the top is not a sign of strength.
      – other indices from the FTSE to the Nasdaq are warning a small correction. The S&P is unlikely to continue making new highs if all other indices are falling
      – the main S&P momentum indicator I use is showing a H&S in the indicator
      – Big news items are due today and tomorrow (good excuses for the market to correct. And that’s possibly why the market’s been pushed up on low volume)
      – For those of you who follow sinewaves, there is cyclical resistance forming on the daily

    • magicianme says:

      OK, the market’s had a little sell off and it’s too late in the trading day to make a new high, especially as Europe has closed and peak liquidity has subsided. My reading of the price action suggests another dash down before the day is done ( to match the first surge “starting” the bear action of the day). Crucially, even if that drop in price doesn’t take us to new lows for the day, the damage has been done – cyclical resistance on the S&P daily formed about an hour ago. NFP brings volatility of course, but I expect that once it has died down there’ll be a few days of (mild?) correction.

      soulsurferusa, I don’t use MFI myself but on just checking the MFI on my charts it seems to have changed direction on Tuesday headed down. In any case it seems to recently lack the oomph it had from Mid-Feb to mid-March.

  24. RDC says:

    Thanks Tony.

  25. JK1987 says:

    Notable mention.

    Like blackjak Said,
    blackjak100 says:
    April 1, 2014 at 7:26 pm
    I’ve said for over 6 months if we can close above 1892, I’d turn very bullish longer term.

    Like daneric Said,
    Elliott Wave Update ~ 1 April 2014
    The SPX weekly chart is shown with the extended wave [v] of 5 in mind. That puts the SPX price at about 2000 at its peak. Yeah incredible. But note that the last Zweig Breadth Thrust has indeed panned out so far in that in signaled underlying strength in the market.

  26. radrian6 says:

    The price action still looks positive for the uptrend but there are some intraday divergences that will likely lead to pullbacks. Any pullback in the SPX should hold above the daily Bollinger Band midline near 1866; any RUT pullback should hold above 1172.

    All of that said, keep in mind that SPX is sitting right below its daily and weekly upper BBs so upside price progress will be slow. The weekly upper BB is strong resistance and can advance about 10-15 points per week at best. The same holds true for the RUT — the weekly upper BB can advance 10-12 points per week at best so a best case scenario for April expiration would be about 1230 but any price flattening or pullback would lower that target. By the way, the US equity markets are closed on Good Friday (April 18) so index options settle on Thursday, April 17.

    • pooch77 says:

      radrian6,you need to update more often 🙂

      • radrian6 says:

        Maybe so Pooch … I tend to post when I see the RUT near a probable inflection point. I trade options and tend to hold the positions for several weeks so I don’t respond to daily fluctuations.

      • pooch77 says:

        doing the same with you

  27. uas2014 says:

    Hi Tony, thanks for your work.
    Do you think uptrending ended today in ibovespa?

  28. llerias7 says:

    So…currently at minute ii of minor (3)…8-10 points pullback…to 1880 b4 an assault to the 1900´s on a minute iii – minor 3 – Int III! Good to be on track.
    Thanks, Tony.

  29. pugsma says:

    Hi Tony. I have been looking for the SP-500 P3-C1 high at 1941 (P3=1.23*P1) in Apr-May 2014 since my Nov-22-2013 SP-500 Long-Term view update. Still looks good.

    Stocks Up! Boiler Up!

  30. Mr. Peter Worden of TC 2000 today, wrote his analysis on Amazon AMZN, he’s basically saying technically broken stock, Jan price plunge caused serious damage and sticks inability to recover to new high offered more bearish evidence, he’s expecting it to stumble soon and fall again, short positions can be initiated at $342 level, or added to any near term attempt to move higher.

    Very interesting analysis on Mr. Worden part. Which he is very skilled at technical analysis when it comes to stocks.

    Most likely, I’m putting Amazon on my Gap open short list as of tonight.

    Just thought I would share Mr. Pete’s Worden recent call. Amazon is weighted pretty heavy on the Nasdaq..

    Great analysis Tony tonight, I went long lululemon Athletic Lulu today, sold the trade at nice gain, today. Currently, 100% cash tonight.

  31. подветренный says:

    Thanks Tony

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