SHORT TERM: market nudges higher, DOW +40
Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.6%. European markets opened higher and gained 0.1%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:15 the ADP index was reported higher: 191k v 139k. The market opened one point above yesterday’s SPX 1886 close, dipped to 1884, then rallied to new highs. At 10am Factory orders were reported higher: +1.6% v -0.7%. At 12:30 the SPX hit 1891, then began to pullback. At 1:30 the SPX hit 1885 and began to advance again. Around 3:30 the SPX hit 1893, then dipped to close at 1891.
For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.25%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.20%. Bonds lost 15 ticks, Crude dropped 40 cents, Gold rallied $9, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1869 and 1841 pivots, with resistance at the 1901 and 1962 pivots. Tomorrow: weekly Jobless claims and the Trade deficit at 8:30, then ISM services at 10am.
The market opened at a new high today, made a higher high, then pulled back. Thus far we can count three waves up from the recent SPX 1843 low: 1867-1853-1893. At SPX 1893 the third wave of this advance is about 1.618 times the first, and there appears to be a short term negative divergence with this new high. Should this set up, we would expect a normal 9+ point pullback to follow. We continue to watch the NAZ throughout the day for any signs of weakness, and noticed the DOW matched its all time high today at 16,588. The SPX is nearly within the OEW 1901 pivot range too.
Short term support is at the 1869 and 1841 pivots, with resistance at the 1901 pivot and SPX 1933. Short term momentum ended the day with a slight negative divergence. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the reversal level now SPX 1876. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bull market