monday update

SHORT TERM: gap up opening, DOW +135

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.5%. European opened higher and gained 0.2%. US index futures were higher overnight, and the market gapped up to SPX 1869 at the open. The SPX had closed at 1858 on Friday. As the market continued to rally the Chicago PMI was reported lower: 55.9 v 59.8, then at 10am the SPX hit 1874. Also at 10am FED chair Yellen gave a speech: The market then pulled back to SPX 1867 by 11:30. Another rally took the SPX to 1875 by 12:30, then a pullback to 1870 followed. One more rally carried the SPX back to 1875 by 3:30, then the market dipped to close at 1872.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.80%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.85%. Bonds lost 2 ticks, Crude slipped 15 cents, Gold dropped $8, and the USD was lower too. Medium term support rises to the 1869 and 1841 pivots, with resistance at the 1901 and 1962 pivots. Tomorrow: ISM manufacturing, Construction spending and Auto sales at 10am.

The market gapped up again at the open today for the fourth time in the last five trading days. This time, however, the recent “sell growth stocks after the open” did not occur. Change in short term market characteristics? After reviewing the charts we find the SPX has spent the entire month in the 1834-1884 range: support the 1841 pivot range, resistance SPX 1884. This consolidation has occurred after the February SPX 1738-1868 rally. When the market breaks out of this range, it will either resume the uptrend or enter a downtrend. With the SPX currently in the 1870’s it would appear a resumption of the uptrend is next.

Short term support rises to the 1869 and 1841 pivots, with resistance at SPX 1884 and the 1901 pivot. Short term momentum hit overbought today then backed off. The short term OEW charts turned positive at the open with the reversal level now SPX 1864. Best to your trading the month of April!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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113 Responses to monday update

  1. John Arella says:

    This long term chart shows 1900 as major resistance

  2. rc1269 says:

    looks like we might get that DOW new high tomorrow. the birds are chirpin, the sun’s shining, all is right in the world

  3. lunker1 says:

    Wow what a windy day on here LOL. Watch the .887 intraday top reversal on the SPX.

  4. last post for the week. Market showed signs of an uptrend weaking and Janet Yellen say NO WAY. back to new highs

    • John Arella says:

      timing is not right yet for a huge correction :), illuminati agenda 🙂

    • Compx going to be up 75 point today guess that’s the joke. I was hoping for something funnier, this is just another typical day.

      Cant wait till Friday when jobs number comes in at 170 when they are expecting 195. Compx will be up another 80 point on friday

  5. John Arella says:

    SPX alternate count and possible projection – just being the devils advocate I guess 🙂

  6. JK1987 says:

    1882+, cheap short.
    Above 10 am price, at 61.8% of today’s.

  7. подветренный says:

    Hey George ,
    Sounds like a reasonable request but remember I was a product of the trading floor (CME) for .618 ish of my life so be patient.
    To the blog….looks like Tony had to take the virtual car antenna to some of ya’s today….better check yourselves before you wreck yourselfs.

  8. budfox9450 says:

    Tony, (DSX) if the larger, flat is a what it is. I can live with
    it. The 2013, 4th qtr earnings loss for DSX, was for
    me a let down – Bought yesterday at 11.90, and more
    today at 12.25. Position though is still small. The
    Stoch 82%K went on a Buy signal yesterday. My
    price objective is $17-19, when? Not sure….Bud

    • tony caldaro says:

      Still holding core here.
      Earnings have been slightly negative as shipping rates remain on the low side.
      Need to get a big boost in the BDI.

  9. John Arella says:

    Diagonal Top at C? I would get out of longs fast !!

  10. winslow80 says:

    SPX hits a new all-time high. CNN’s Greed/Fear Index = 44 (Fear). Sentimentrader registers Short Term Investor Sentiment as 50 (Neutral). ISEE All Securities Put/Call Ratio is 97 (Neutral).

    For all the talk about investor euphoria being consistent with a major top, it is not reflected in the numbers.

  11. uncle10 says:

    Seems most agree we are headed up. hmmmm Still short here. Been in the chop for awhile and while I have to agree it “looks” like it is going to break up finally and go up, the things that I use still show we are very near a top. If we close above the highs and have follow thru on Wed close, my stuff will be a failed signal and I will close out my losing trade ( and it will be painful as I have on a bigger than normal position). good luck to us all ;).

  12. H D says:

    5 slittle waves down, in theory 3 back up and then drop the hammer on them again….
    Thanks Tony for all you do. I see something different with those 3 peaks.

    GL all.

  13. radrian6 says:

    SPX has not yet produced a bullish cross on the daily MACD and yet price is already flirting with the daily and weekly upper Bollinger Bands. RUT is lagging and currently finding resistance at the daily BB midline which is near 1185. This board recently discussed the possibility of rotation to explain the issue of growth stocks lagging the cyclicals.

    It appears that the correction/consolidation is over and the uptrend has resumed but I also think the technical situation bears close monitoring, especially with regard to the RUT. Also keep in mind that closes over the weekly upper BB are rare so SPX may not provide instant gratification for “long” positions. As I write this, the SPX weekly upper BB is about 12 points above price.

  14. elmer510 says:

    New intraday ATH at SPX. Tony was right again about the most possible direction. Now we hopefully can look forward to some nice weeks in April.

    Doomsday preppers at MarketWatch, esp. Paul Farrel but also his buddy Mark Hulbert, don’t make many hits these day.

    • tommyboys says:

      To everything there is a turn. The “end of the world” salesmen’s turn marketing fear ended a couple years ago. Will return someday but not soon.

  15. rc1269 says:

    The revelation of Yellen’s choice in ‘real world’ people to discuss in her state of the labor market yesterday is truly frightening, in my opinion. The fact that she knew that two of the three had criminal records and determined that she would still use them as examples of those who are ‘struggling to find work’ shows clear lack of basic judgment. I do not have anything against those people; everyone makes mistakes and bad decisions. This is about Yellen, and her inability to know what is appropriate as supporting data to her labor market thesis.
    In this one move she has proven to me that she is politician first and objective Fed official second. While many of us always suspect(ed) there is a certain element of that at the Fed, this obvious PR tactic brings it front and center with the Yellen regime. I may not have always agreed with Bernanke’s interpretation and response to our economic condition, but I never felt like he had already chosen an outcome and the rest was a foregone conclusion.
    Yellen’s shameless and poorly judged use of inappropriate ‘data points’ to support her labor market story to me indicates a willingness to seek an outcome or action regardless of evidence. To me it seems she will decide first what she wants to do and then find and present the stories that support it. Why else would she have decided to go through with presenting these individuals’ stories if she did not feel the power of pity was more important than representing fact? Perhaps I’m reading too much into it. I hope so. In the very least, she has lost any shred of credibility in my eyes and has already shown to be ill-suited for her post.
    Bernanke could be frustrating, but she makes me downright scared.

    • thanks for the post a great read RC. but she is doing her job of inflating stocks.

      • rc1269 says:

        only, that’s not her job. the fact that any of us even think that is her job is a serious problem and emblematic of their failing

        • tony caldaro says:

          Alright guys,
          Not singling you out RC.
          Enough with the political, and trading judgmental posts.
          We are here to help others, in three posts a day or less.
          Not here to bicker with each other, in 10 posts or more.
          It’s a bull market, enjoy it!

    • tony caldaro says:

      Give here time
      She was born in Brooklyn

      • rc1269 says:

        hah fair enough Tony. have lived there myself, though not born and raised as i’ve heard some other sharp folks around these parts might have been. 😉 alright, i’m done with my rant! apologies for the spam and will get back to riding the wave. cheers!

  16. H D says:

    You’re still not selling 10AM? BTW, JoKer- do the math…..Don’t confuse scalping with swing trades.

  17. rc1269 says:

    the bad weather economic snapback continues to not materialize. gee, who would have thought.

    • tommyboys says:

      LOL you guys kill me. Weather just got reasonable here this past weekend. Wait a quarter to see the result. Permabears and dissolutioned cynics will really be kicking themselves two years from now when these markets are WAY higher as they keep “shorting the rallies” and whining about the Fed. Stop looking at recent history as a “roadmap” to the future. Markets are telegraphing great things ahead. Once everyone is sure markets can’t fall and the whining stops we’ll have 6-12 months to a top. This 6-12 months will begin the euphoric stage. This stage is at least 12 months and likely 30-36 months out – and way higher from current levels. Peace out…!

      • rc1269 says:

        if we’re not looking at a market roadmap how exactly do we know that the market is ‘telegraphing’?
        why is this time so different from any other time? [ie, a bull mkt nearly 2x normal length, per your projection]
        not trying to be a smarty; honestly wondering what you know that tells you all this, if it’s not the things you typically debunk like recent market history and economic data. or is it just ‘gut sense’?

  18. JK1987 says:

    DOW is above your int b of Primary IV.
    Either Primary IV needs to be retired for the 4th time, or lables need to adjusted?

  19. JK1987 says:

    1884.5, out 🙂 🙂 🙂
    Until DOW makes new high, this SPX record new high won’t last too long.

  20. llerias7 says:

    So…final and officialy…in the (iii) of Int III of major 5…

  21. H D says:

    Gm Tony, All. Seems we are up 10 @ 10. PB time IMO

  22. infantguru says:

    Below was my post on March 18th. Everything holds still.
    MACD had made a crossover today.
    The summation Index that has weakened since is the ONLY one to wait for now to cross over the 5,10 MA for the bullish case and in complete alignment with Tony.

    March 18th:
    “Dow: A saucer is in formation on both Weekly and daily. Breach of 16.505 on the upside sets the target to between 17.5 and 17.7 (Fib 1.61). RSI 21 on both weekly and daily, is above 55 which suggests a strong possibility. MACD, (3,10) moving avg needs cross over for confirmation. Both are pretty closely poised at this time. Bollinger band tightening up as well.

    SPX: The Saucer is a bit more elongated than the Dow. A breach of 188.3 on the upside has the a target of 2020+ (approx). Again RSI on both daily and weekly is above 55 Summation-Index, MACD and (3,10) moving avg needs cross over for confirmation here as well. All three are pretty closely poised at this time like in Dow. Bollinger band tightening up as well.

    Wow. Do I see bullishness here! Interesting times….”

  23. kvilia says:

    So dollar keeps tanking and will do so until bear market starts? With this rates I will be forced to exclude deserts (well, at least every other day) from my European vacation.

  24. winslow80 says:

    Tony: My cycle work indicates a significant low for the week of March 24, and your superb analysis of the consolidation is compelling. We may have something going here. Thanks for many years of great work.

    Marilyn: Hope your health improves: Simplify.

    Amos: Both Board Nannies have their long knives out for you, so even though I have yet to agree with your commentary honesty dictates acknowledging that you must be doing something right.

    • buddyglove says:

      Board Nannies….. 🙂

    • Winslow… Your conclusion makes no logical sense… Just saying.

      • winslow80 says:

        It makes no “logical sense” (nice tautology) to those who are hostile to the concept of tolerating dissent. Every internet chat room has its fascists who hector dissidents off the site. It is especially unfortunate when that predatory behavior surfaces here, because Caldaro seems to be a gentle soul who is graciously providing a wonderful service. While adamantly disagreeing with Amos, I admire his unwillingness to be intimidated by the usual suspects.

        GLD has Fibonacci and chart support from 122.51-122.24, which provides a low risk/high reward.entry point for traders who embrace the bear market rally scenario.

      • Fascists? really?

        Just because someone told you to dial it down a bit, and honor the three posts rule, you should change your ID and call people fascists, really?

        busy, busy, busy mind…. you are.

    • I’m just short term trader, yes, back in 2009, I was very bullish, Federal reserve along with every central bank on the globe, are united with attempt to offer their real solutions for the future. FIAT money solution, that might work, if, human nature element was one of honesty beyond measure. Bankers, for the most part, are humans. Just of the many problems with FIAT money solution, of basically, tapping into United States Treasury.

      1. Military complex, has its agenda!

      2. Left wing groups have their agenda. And the complex world of each nation, all have their own agendas. Currently, We The People! HAVNT elected into office the honest leaders with even the schooling or knowledge, of our past generations. Example: 1960’s period.

      One of the greatest ALARMIST (which I’m being called by some here) tried to give speech to Americans, warning them of secret societies, military complex agenda, within America.

      How many here, actually have sat down and study this Ex- President speech?

      Then, just ponder all of the world events that have unfolded, Vietnam war, 911 event, two major wars that will have everlasting effect on millions of Americans,

      Core element for success with FIAT style Federal reserve attempt to offer real solution, MUST have STANDARD of honesty! Well, beyond what is currently, displayed.

      Our foundering Fathers, knew something about future generations, is why they made the CHOICE! To enact, our currency with some type of STANDARD. They elected GOLD, and Silver. For reason.

      They could of have elected to place our currency under STANDARD of HONESTY,

      You have to have men and woman, of extreme HONESTY!

      Trust me, Wall Street men and woman and Military complex, HONESTY to the degree that our foundering knew would be needed to allow, United States Currency to float as it today, is not present among this generation.

      Morality of this generation is any indication, Spring break madness!

      North Korea, young kid, only 24 years old, spoiled brat, firing off over 100 missiles yesterday at the southern edge toward the South Korea. We have stocks, example CANN with FIAT structure, being halted by SEC. Amazing the SEC even noticed! Maybe, there is little hope left.

      Line in the sand for myself, SPX 1906! If it gets there… Which odds favor it will. Then, I’m expecting at least 23% correction. Which would be in line with Elliott Wave principles guidelines, after Wave 3 most likely Wave 4 will pull back 23%

      Tonys spot on with Analysis! That’s hands down in my opinion. Tonys blog pushes people to think deeper and how to learn how to fight harder for better future!

      Wall Street, huge sums of money, super egos, greed, many traps! It has all the elements of swimming in infested waters, with sharks! Something, Constance Brown tried to teach in her book, Dynamic Trading!

      I’m not alarmist! I just call it like I see it!

      Was Ex President Kennedy alarmist with his Dallas Speech, just before he was shot to death?

      You decide… Its your life and your money!

      God bless! Invest safely..

      • P.S. If your really serious about learning about what’s happening, within Washington D.C. Read Senator Orin Hatch book called In The Lions Den!

        1. He explains how each day in America, Doctors, killed little babies across America, after they are born. By simple loophole in our laws, that no one will even fix. Doctors, and nurses, allow the little babies, to cry and cry endlessly, all day and night, without giving them one ounce of water, or milk, of food. The babies simply die after about ten days. Perfectly legal here in America. The whole story is in his book.

        2. Orin explains, Congress will not allow, Family Impact Committee to be established.

        Every bill that is written, goes through at least 15 impact committees, but congress, won’t allow, FIC committee to be established! which would stop almost 90% of the new bills dead in the water… Family Impact Committee, would be group of honest men and woman, acting in the behalf of the Harding working families in America, too protect their wallets.

        Each bill effect the American Family budget, or wallet. But congress, says, no way to group of honest men and woman, that could read and ponder each new bill.

        They don’t want to protect your right to live in nation that’s has liberty, and justice for all.

        They just want justice for elect few!

        I’m done for today.. America could fixed in less than 30 days, if We The People elected the right kind of leadership. And they didn’t kill the one we elected… Good ones gets killed.

      • It will take you years more to realize, free market wins, money talks, power corrupts, weak suffers, and there is nothing anybody can do about it, and this realization is called growing up.

        A world created and run by Ego cannot be void of it, and this is what this reality is.

        I am out too…

  25. 777daimon says:

    Today we will enter in the 3rd wave up – the set-up of the market in SPX looks soooooo bullish that even a blind-man could see it

  26. подветренный: I believe you are Leetired. I did not answer the question you asked me two weeks ago because I had already made 3 posts that day. I do want to say that I think you are one of the nicer people on this site and that you undoubtedly have a lot of market wisdom to impart. However, when you and other veterans of the options and futures markets discuss the market action using terminology that is understandable only to those of similar trading background to yourself, those of us who are more traditional style investors are deprived of the benefit of your years of accumulated knowledge because you are commenting in what is basically a kind of foreign language. I expect to have to look up some abbreviations and acronyms, but with a number of site posters it has gone far beyond that. I have addressed similar comments that I made to you to several others. I do not not feel it is appropriate to post of list of names as you suggested that I do. I think it is better to address my perceptions directly to them on the specific instances where I see the difficulty occurring. This approach has, in my opinion, produced some results because I am finding that more and more of the market commentary made is in universally understandable English.

    • jeffbalin says:

      He’s awesome. I love it when he posts. All different levels here. I’m a novice and I understand most of his posts. Don’t understand ask or look it up. Part of the education process. No one is obligated to make sure every single reader from every level around the world understands everything that is posted. If you don’t know baseball are you going to complain that you didn’t understand what was so funny about the Cubs posts, that we should post in a way that assumes that no one knows anything about baseball? No time for that. Ask if you have a question.

  27. Finally, I have a recognition, someone said I have ability to Look in to the future, Is that HK connection? Doubts were raised, saying “If I go in future, how will I come back to present…” etc..

    Once in century (!!!), market does not listen to me and it happened this week, when I said SPX will touch 1830 in next few days. Anyway revised targets are;

    SPX will touch NOT 1830, NOT 1840, NOT 1850 but 1804 before this weekend (everything going right). Again, no explanation given. You are free to ignore at the cost of your capital. DYODD.

    Next important update on Sunday evening.

  28. lunker1 says:

    SPX/SPY gave an .887 intraday sell today. Tony’s MA’s are at 1864/63/61 which lines up with the lower end of the pivot at 1862. confluence.

  29. Greg Polites says:

    Hello Tony; We looked at the NAZ and RUT today and both have generated new STORMM buy signals today after their early March sell signals. From our indicators these two indexes have now bottomed and are aligned with the SP500 (buy signal 3.18.14) and the DOW (ongoing buy signal). So this would support your first option from the OEW weekend update from our view. New highs soon?
    Charts and more at:

  30. lunker1 says:

    Hey Amos I think I’m the 3rd or 4th today to ask if you could chill with the alarmist posts?

  31. Cliff Uzan says:

    If Famous Amos is right were in trouble.

  32. Amos Ailanjian on March 31, 2014 at 1:22 pm
    No bounds to madness! Couldn’t of said it better. President Obama, half sister, states her brother, shares the same philosophy as she does.. Great news! Now, North Korea just fired another missile, just reported on CNN.. Russian threat,

    Get ready to short… If not already short…GL

    Log in to Reply
    thetruthtrader1 on March 31, 2014 at 1:30 pm
    thank Amos somebody who finally agrees with me. maybe my friend tommyboy will agree next?

    • True it’s a free market. There is no barrier to entry whatsoever. Freaking fools are running rampant here. Kudos to Tony for suffering them day in and day out!!

    • What ever happen to social trend stock, CANN? It ran up from pennies, to $65

      SEC stepped in and stop trading in this stock. Why?

      Has the madness started to catch the attention of SEC?

      Interesting development..

      • CygnetNoir says:

        Not all that interesting really – folks were warned off of that very stock stock right here at Tony’s blog a month ago, with periodic updates and warnings – if anything is at all interesting or mysterious about the suspension of CANN it is this: Why did it take the SEC so long to suspend the trading in the securities of this company. I would bet that nearly every experienced OTC trader saw this coming and had his or her money out of this stock every night before the close expecting that SEC suspension (I mean pros, even retail pros, but not the joe blow who gets it into his head to trade penny stocks for a week or two).

    • no reason to insult anybody. Everybody brings the views to the table. I know this is an EW blog and I for one should be mindful but with all do respect the bull case is the market does not go down. This is market if you kept your count bullish you did well because anytime anybody went bearish they have gotten hurt as I know being one of them. Dick Arms has been run over, tom demark has lost his cred, larry fink , David Stockman, the list goes on and on. I think the only person on CNBC who makes sense in Rick Santelli. otherwise I watch it on Mute

  33. Mr. Erin Heim Analysis! Double bottom vs double top!

    PMO and other indicators are turning up.. .?

    • 1875 – 1842 = 33 close to 34 Match Spx points, wave I

      33 X 1.68 = 55. Spx points Match

      1875 + 55 = 1920 spx

      1906 spx will be .272 Fib extension from 1987 Nov 2 lows to 2000 highs.

      1906 or 1920 could come as early Job report this week.

      • CygnetNoir says:

        OK Amos- that’s three and you are done until Tuesday’s update – there is a three post/day limit. Did you not get the memo?

      • Yeah man, go easy on the “post comment” thingy… too many things to share shows a “buys mind”.

  34. SHRIHAS (@SHRIHAS1) says:
    March 28, 2014 at 1:41 pm
    Good that yesterday, i did not do anything after covering at 1845.2.

    Best place to short was at 1862, but I was concerned that it may not reach there..Short at 1857.5 (limit order to sell executed within first half hour). Pl. dont ask explanation. SPX moving to 1831 first then-1852-then 1834 and then 1860. When it reaches 1860 will be back again to say what next..

    Next post on Tuesday
    tradesmart321 says:
    March 28, 2014 at 1:56 pm
    Yeah you are the trading God and market will do what you fancy!!

  35. Netflix NFLX Analysis: First thing I look at is Monthly Chart, no change, trend down, No sign of MACD turning higher. Week Chart Analysis: quick glance, no change either. Trend lower. Daily Chart Analysis: using Kelner Channel along with Bollinger Bands, I’m concern of short trend change at least for day. Elliott Wave Oscillator on 15 minute time frame to 1 minute time frame, huge warning flag! Along with bottom of Kelner Channel at 351.57 today as of the close, Netflex closed right at $351.67 just in line with Kelner Channel and just above Bollinger Bands bottom, $349.88 reading.

    Daily price channel, today appears to back test of break down of the Daily price channel.

    Given the Premarket volume was at 13,815 today, and after hours volume currently is above 30,000 shares and rising! Nasdaq two day rebound, + 43.23 1.04% increase.

    Anything over 1.00% should be red flag of potential run higher.

    Tuesday, I’m expecting, Netflex most likely will open higher.. Monitor, Premarket volume totals, above 30,000 I would expect maybe two hour run higher. Tuesday, looking to short Netflix after it runs its course higher.. Tonys right on his Analysis, indexes are turning positive again, PMO turn up.. Most likely going to take sudden negative news item to stop the bullish wave that’s started.

    But, Netflix, is toast! She’s all mine! Amazon attack is too strong.

    Great Monday, Analysis! P.S. I notice McDonald’s advertised using trend War! With Taco Bell.. Social media right in line with current trend.. Interesting!


  36. подветренный says:

    Thanks Tony
    Cubs looked better than they have in a decade today, NL Central is theirs to lose !

  37. ocaj2000 says:


    I would like to clarify your call for a bear market start at the end of 2014/beginning of 2015. Am I right in thinking this will occur at the conclusion of primary wave 5 ?, meaning between now and the end of the year we will see current primary 3 top, a pullback in primary 4, and then on to new highs in primary 5 in the 1950-2000 area before the start of the bear market ? Sorry if this question is basis but I’m fairly new to your site.


  38. esvxm says:

    Thanks Tony for the analysis and the hard work you put in it to bring it to us 🙂
    Markets gapped up in Europe too, though DAX closed lower after filling the gap. When price and time come together:
    Russell rallied from the pattern discussed:
    S&P update:
    Good trading!

  39. mjtplayer says:

    Thanks Tony!

    CAT touched the $100 resistance area today, hitting $100.50 but closed badly. News after the bell suggests the run in CAT may be over. Me thinks time for a retracement back to $90 and possibly $80 in the months ahead

  40. bobhopium says:

    thanks tony

  41. Hi Tony

    From the March 21 high, I see “a” on March 24, “b” on March 26 and “c” on March 27 to reach A.
    From there, I see an a-b-c, of which c is a 5 wave structure.

    The bearish view, therefore, is that after c completes to B, we should start an impulsive C.

  42. Thanks for your work Caldaro you have been spot on

Comments are closed.