SHORT TERM: gap up opening, DOW +135
Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.5%. European opened higher and gained 0.2%. US index futures were higher overnight, and the market gapped up to SPX 1869 at the open. The SPX had closed at 1858 on Friday. As the market continued to rally the Chicago PMI was reported lower: 55.9 v 59.8, then at 10am the SPX hit 1874. Also at 10am FED chair Yellen gave a speech: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/yellen20140331a.htm. The market then pulled back to SPX 1867 by 11:30. Another rally took the SPX to 1875 by 12:30, then a pullback to 1870 followed. One more rally carried the SPX back to 1875 by 3:30, then the market dipped to close at 1872.
For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.80%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.85%. Bonds lost 2 ticks, Crude slipped 15 cents, Gold dropped $8, and the USD was lower too. Medium term support rises to the 1869 and 1841 pivots, with resistance at the 1901 and 1962 pivots. Tomorrow: ISM manufacturing, Construction spending and Auto sales at 10am.
The market gapped up again at the open today for the fourth time in the last five trading days. This time, however, the recent “sell growth stocks after the open” did not occur. Change in short term market characteristics? After reviewing the charts we find the SPX has spent the entire month in the 1834-1884 range: support the 1841 pivot range, resistance SPX 1884. This consolidation has occurred after the February SPX 1738-1868 rally. When the market breaks out of this range, it will either resume the uptrend or enter a downtrend. With the SPX currently in the 1870’s it would appear a resumption of the uptrend is next.
Short term support rises to the 1869 and 1841 pivots, with resistance at SPX 1884 and the 1901 pivot. Short term momentum hit overbought today then backed off. The short term OEW charts turned positive at the open with the reversal level now SPX 1864. Best to your trading the month of April!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bull market