thursday update

SHORT TERM: choppy day, DOW -5

Last night the FED released this report on the banks: Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.4%. European markets opened lower and lost 0.1%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 Q4 GDP was reported as expected: +2.6%, and weekly Jobless claims were lower: 311k v 320k. The market opened four points under yesterday’s SPX 1853 close, bounced to 1852, and then dropped to 1842 all within the first half hour. Then the market started to rally. At 10am Pending home sales were reported lower: -0.8% v +0.1%. The rally hit a high of SPX 1856 by 10:30, then the market pulled back again. At noon the SPX hit 1843, a higher low, rallied to 1852, and then pulled back again. At 2pm the SPX hit 1845, bounced to 1850 by 3pm, retested 1845 by 3:30, then hit 1851 before closing at 1849. Wild swings today.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.10%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.55%. Bonds gained 2 ticks, Crude rallied $1.05, Gold dropped $8, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1841 and 1828 pivots, with resistance at the 1869 and 1901 pivots. Tomorrow: Personal income/spending and PCE prices at 8:30, then Consumer sentiment at 10am. FED governor Tarullo gives a speech tonight in NY.

The market altered its recent characteristics today. Instead of rallying at the open, like it has for the past four trading days. It opened lower and went lower before rallying, and then entered a trading range. The opening decline took the SPX back to the OEW 1841 pivot range for the first time in two weeks. The market has vacillated above and below this pivot for all of 2014 so far.

The growth indices, NDX/NAZ, led the market lower again as they hit their lowest levels since February 10th. The NAZ has dropped 5.4% since early March, and most of the growth leaders are already in confirmed downtrends. The SPX/DOW are barely down 2.5% during the same period. If the NDX/NAZ can complete its correction by next week. Then the SPX/DOW are not likely to enter a downtrend, then they can all rise together. If it takes longer, then the SPX/DOW are likely to retest the early February lows.

Short term support is at the 1841 and 1828 pivots, with resistance at the 1869 pivot and SPX 1884. Short term momentum was quite oversold at today’s low, and ended the day above oversold. The short term OEW charts remain negative with the reversal level now SPX 1859. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend weakening

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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102 Responses to thursday update

  1. llerias7 says:

    apart from the mkts…see this vídeo and tell me if youd would not like to invade Ukraine, too!:

    have fun…


  2. Good that yesterday, i did not do anything after covering at 1845.2.

    Best place to short was at 1862, but I was concerned that it may not reach there..Short at 1857.5 (limit order to sell executed within first half hour). Pl. dont ask explanation. SPX moving to 1831 first then-1852-then 1834 and then 1860. When it reaches 1860 will be back again to say what next..

    Next post on Tuesday


    • Yeah you are the trading God and market will do what you fancy!!


    • trondack says:

      So we have a time traveler here! I believe in the “Many Worlds Theory”, so if use your time machine to travel into the future, how do you know that you will return to this world? Good luck anyway!


  3. Citigroup Inc. (C) I’m currently short, my downside target $40.00 even.
    200 dma was serious overhead resistance for Citigroup, 40 dma has been broken, stock should continue its slide lower.



    • Citigroup Inc. (C) Serious Head & Shoulder Play. Basically, Peter Worden, TC 2000 makes serious short case for this stock. Reading the recent news reports, failure of bank stress tests, scandals that are coming forth within the news, pure technicals are negative as Mr. Peter Worden points out in his analysis. Few insiders selling, scroll down the page.

      Ultimately, examination of all the facts, this short candidate, masterful play with options, or straight short, could yield unique opportunity to qualify as one of the best short around.

      Just a matter of conviction, and confidence in your analysis.

      Link above will provide, insider information bottom of page, all of the news items, chart of Head and Shoulder pattern.

      My position: short, target $40 to $38.50



      • The U.S. case included evidence that the former traders conspired with Tom Hayes, a former trader at UBS and Citigroup who was a major ICAP client. Emails cited in the case showed the traders referred to Hayes as “Lord Libor” or “Lord Bailiff” as they allegedly discussed manipulating the benchmark. Hayes has been charged separately by British and U.S. authorities.

        “We deeply regret and strongly condemn the inexcusable actions of the brokers who sought to assist certain bank traders in their efforts to manipulate yen Libor,” said ICAP Group CEO Michael Spencer at the time of the settlement.

        Commentary: I find it interesting on March 27 UBS reiterates its buy rating on Citigroup shares. British investigators along with FBI have solid evidence that UBS and Citigroup were in bed together.


  4. uncle10 says:

    lol, the vix the vix the vix…. nearly everytime it bunches up like this it spikes higher. Given this times bunch is longer and tighter than most and all moving averages are right on ( very tight) , it seems likely the spike higher will be greater and longer lasting. Maybe it will be different this time but I doubt it. Good luck to all and have a great weekend!!


  5. Last post Alof of fun on this board very Nice Caldaro does this to share all our opinions . I said early the bears will win today. IF sentinment indictaor goes green / fear guage/ VIX. Look out below.


  6. lunker1 says:

    I’ve used up my posts for March. TGIF!


    • JK1987 says:

      lunker has 15 posts today, a record?
      Quite emotional.
      Is it because of following? If it’s a position, should stop out.
      lunker1 says:
      March 27, 2014 at 1:27 pm
      the price action since this AM low looks like a pennant triangle which could mean one more down. it measures ~13pts so target would be ~1832


  7. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    Looking a little c of ‘B’ isn here?
    I would be looking for a break of 1876 for this ‘not’ to be a B Wave.
    Anyway Just trading between the lines.


  8. tommyboys says:

    Interesting ECRIs report today shows the 4 week average dropped sharply indicating we certainly slowed yet this week’s number has recovered to it’s highest level since early February showing we’re likely accelerating off recent lows…could explain the last couple months’ activity. Who knows however -make your own assessment. Here’s the report…

    “ECRI WLI Ticks Up
    Growth in a weekly leading index designed to forecast U.S. economic activity has strengthened further.
    According to the Economic Cycle Research Institute, its weekly leading index grew 2.9% in the week ended March 21, up from 2.3% in the previous week. Growth is now at its highest since early February.
    The index itself increased to 133.5 from 133.0. ECRI says “occasionally the WLI level and growth rate can move in different directions, because the latter is derived from a four-week moving average.”


    • torehund says:

      Thanks Tommy, seems like US has been into a flattening/slowing phase since Oct, and the cold spell hampered ind production too. Seems to be recovering as we speak…


  9. Thursday, Bears failed at turning 1850 into resistance, yesterday was perfect trap! Next week, markets around the world will be waiting for serious analysis report.

    Found this on Market Oracle, written by Rojas ?

    The latest report from the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is due out next week. If the leaked draft is reflected in the published report, it will constitute the formal moving on of the debate from the past, futile focus upon “mitigation” to a new debate.

    Some project the lasest report will have serious toll on GDP of world nations.

    It will be interesting how the market jury acts toward the evidence in the report.



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