thursday update

SHORT TERM: choppy day, DOW -5

Last night the FED released this report on the banks: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/bcreg/20140326a.htm. Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.4%. European markets opened lower and lost 0.1%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 Q4 GDP was reported as expected: +2.6%, and weekly Jobless claims were lower: 311k v 320k. The market opened four points under yesterday’s SPX 1853 close, bounced to 1852, and then dropped to 1842 all within the first half hour. Then the market started to rally. At 10am Pending home sales were reported lower: -0.8% v +0.1%. The rally hit a high of SPX 1856 by 10:30, then the market pulled back again. At noon the SPX hit 1843, a higher low, rallied to 1852, and then pulled back again. At 2pm the SPX hit 1845, bounced to 1850 by 3pm, retested 1845 by 3:30, then hit 1851 before closing at 1849. Wild swings today.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.10%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.55%. Bonds gained 2 ticks, Crude rallied $1.05, Gold dropped $8, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1841 and 1828 pivots, with resistance at the 1869 and 1901 pivots. Tomorrow: Personal income/spending and PCE prices at 8:30, then Consumer sentiment at 10am. FED governor Tarullo gives a speech tonight in NY.

The market altered its recent characteristics today. Instead of rallying at the open, like it has for the past four trading days. It opened lower and went lower before rallying, and then entered a trading range. The opening decline took the SPX back to the OEW 1841 pivot range for the first time in two weeks. The market has vacillated above and below this pivot for all of 2014 so far.

The growth indices, NDX/NAZ, led the market lower again as they hit their lowest levels since February 10th. The NAZ has dropped 5.4% since early March, and most of the growth leaders are already in confirmed downtrends. The SPX/DOW are barely down 2.5% during the same period. If the NDX/NAZ can complete its correction by next week. Then the SPX/DOW are not likely to enter a downtrend, then they can all rise together. If it takes longer, then the SPX/DOW are likely to retest the early February lows.

Short term support is at the 1841 and 1828 pivots, with resistance at the 1869 pivot and SPX 1884. Short term momentum was quite oversold at today’s low, and ended the day above oversold. The short term OEW charts remain negative with the reversal level now SPX 1859. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend weakening

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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102 Responses to thursday update

  1. Bulls are getting too excited, I see approx 1868 and then We drop to 1820 to 1805

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    • lunker1 says:

      Why 1868? Why 1820-05?

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      • I see a few possible bear moves but I see this on my radar……w1 at 1842 w2 at 1868 w3 at 1820 etc….

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      • mjtplayer says:

        Agree. Window dressing for quarter-end, then down we go next week after Monday. 1,868 pivot and right shoulder on the S&P. Double-head at 1,883/4 with neckline at 1,840 sets-up sub 1,800: I’m still targeting 1,780 – 1,800 area.

        Check out IBB, market is up big and biotech is struggling to stay green, very weak – stay short.

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      • JK1987 says:

        1868 is 61.8%, simple as that.

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      • lunker1 says:

        Disagree. 60 minute RSI5 today broke out of the resistance down trend TL formed ny 3 lower peaks so perhaps it will backtest that line and also find support at the multiple MA’s at 1860. I’d be guarded on a sustained break below 1860. Watch 4 into 1 at 1854.

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      • lunker the guy is bearish. why ask for levels the market has no memory from day to day you can throw EW out the window in this market

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      • lunker1 says:

        But the market remembered not to make lower lows yesterday and was the end of wave 2 until it isn’t.

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  2. magnus1234 says:

    Different story today. Breadth steady strong +1800. UVOL-DVOL steady line upwards (program demand). Bonds lost direct from cash open. Locals are selling to paper but right now they are flipping them directly with e-minis. They dont dare to keep them. I cling on to my ESM4s

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    • llerias7 says:

      Look up to 1900´s. April should be fine for the bulls…probably now in (iii) of Int.III !

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    • magnus1234 says:

      With VIX=13.9% translates to a 2 standard deviation span on 16.2. The span so far today (since cash open) is aprox 14. I leave the market for today and say …have a nice weekend.

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  3. Not a surprise as indicators were telling you there was no fear and nothing to worry about. Bulls have a ton of confidence and with good reason for the most part the market does not go down. We are within striking distance of all time highs.

    I would say the bears have once chance and that’s to slam this market today and actually show the bulls they can lose.

    As for those keeping a count I give you credit . How do you keep a count and forecast trends in a market that has no memory from day to day.

    Bold forecast ? Bears win today

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    • lunker1 says:

      Keep it simple and look for higher highs and lower lows. Haven’t seen any lower lows lately. All that range bound chop on SPX could’ve been wave 2. You got a healthier more normal looking wave 2 retrace on the higher beta indices.

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    • oneandonlyuniverse says:

      Tony,
      looks like 1946, not S&P FORECAST, but the year.And that is not good!
      Slv is a go here.
      Namaste

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  4. lunker1 says:

    Plus there was positive divergence on Tony’s 60 minute RSI5

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    • JK1987 says:

      🙂 🙂 🙂
      JK1987 says:
      March 27, 2014 at 9:38 am
      Positive divergence at 1842, right at oew pivot 1841.

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      • lunker1 says:

        So why didn’t you go long then?It was a lot better place to go long then 1857 was. “Like I said” wave 2 could go all the way down to 1840 and still be valid.

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      • JK1987 says:

        Learned from the experience of 2 days ago.
        If I post my positions, you will keep on asking why buy there, what’s the stop, what’s the target, all sorts of questions to your satisfaction. So I don’t post my position.
        You know, I post with 🙂 🙂 🙂

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      • lunker1 says:

        Blindly posting trades is irresponsible so I was guiding you to be more responsible. There’s really no satisfaction in it. It just makes the situation more tolerable.

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      • hrmny358 says:

        nonetheless, you had a good month

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      • lunker1 says:

        Perhaps a good month or pehaos not. It’s the Internet. He just lost 9 points “All In” which in the past was fully leveraged 3X UPRO and his trades are set up very poorly. Recently he scaled in Longs with an average of 1860 and said his stop was 1848 and he took a profit of 10 points at 1870 so he is willing to risk more than he made. Not smart at all. Good trades should have a 10 to 1 risk reward ratio or higher.

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    • JK1987 says:

      Tony
      Seems like this kind of treatment is only on me – need to give out all sorts of reasons and targets, stop for positions.
      But isn’t posting a position real time an opinion of the market?

      Plus, many other traders post their positions much much later with advantage, and did not say why. I do not see any question asked on them for why what what what.

      So it’s just me. So I make adjustment and no question can be asked. 🙂 🙂 🙂

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    • rc1269 says:

      hahahaha
      they lost me with the first sentence of, “Once this year’s harsh weather has faded…”
      oh boy. the ‘harsh weather.’ in which the majority of consumer survey participants responded that the gloomy weather actually caused them to spend more than they would have otherwise.
      good luck with the ‘release of pent up demand.’

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      • tommyboys says:

        ??

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      • tommyboys says:

        Never know…I know I’ve postponed a car purchase and home shopping until this week simply because was caught in a virtual blizzard two months ago and the weather hasn’t been amicable since – until this week…and I’m just one guy.
        Hahahahahahahaha

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      • rc1269 says:

        sorry, the laughter was just seeing yet another of the perpetual weather/economic apologist articles. so tiresome. always an excuse for what never comes. it’s too hot, it’s too cold, there’s washington gridlock, there’s an election, it’s the olympics, there was a glitch in the matrix, whatever… never ends. how about “this recovery stinks no matter what you blame it on, and that isn’t likely to change arbitrarily any time soon.” through all the excuses that statement would have held true for the last several years. i don’t see why this year’s set of excuses will make that any different.
        this, of course, has nothing to do with the market. as we know it has not gone up due to a robust economic recovery. and it won’t need one to keep going up. for all we know maybe the market will tank if the economy finally decides to grow gangbusters. that yahoo finance article could be bearish!

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      • tommyboys says:

        Worst winter in a century here and worst on record by many metrics. Know for a fact kids were home from school for 11 days for weather – THAT’S a record. Factories were closed numerous days. Under normal circumstances I’d say weather is nonsense but when it’s cumulative over weeks it has an effect. Make your best assessment and place your bet. No complaints it’s been an awesome half decade!

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  5. lunker1 says:

    if blue holds then median blue is first target.

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  6. bennyyubin says:

    huh

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  7. torehund says:

    Going through th bulkers chart wise, all I see is finished ABCs, this has gotta bi IT.

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    • torehund says:

      Look at silver, ABC down from top, looks ripe for an upturn. G-Bugs will join the ride too.
      I haven’t been posting for a while as surfing is now my main priority for the happy prima vera period. However today I jumped on my moped to do some supervising at a more internet friendly location than Barra de la Cruz. Not a city boy for long though, heading back to the surf tomorrow. Didn’t encounter anything overt disturbing, quite the contrary(will China devalue ??).
      Good weekend to all on board.

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  8. uas2014 says:

    hello tony. Today you updated the ibovespa chart to uptrending. what is the target for this uptrending? thank you for your work.

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