thursday update

SHORT TERM: choppy day, DOW -5

Last night the FED released this report on the banks: Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.4%. European markets opened lower and lost 0.1%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 Q4 GDP was reported as expected: +2.6%, and weekly Jobless claims were lower: 311k v 320k. The market opened four points under yesterday’s SPX 1853 close, bounced to 1852, and then dropped to 1842 all within the first half hour. Then the market started to rally. At 10am Pending home sales were reported lower: -0.8% v +0.1%. The rally hit a high of SPX 1856 by 10:30, then the market pulled back again. At noon the SPX hit 1843, a higher low, rallied to 1852, and then pulled back again. At 2pm the SPX hit 1845, bounced to 1850 by 3pm, retested 1845 by 3:30, then hit 1851 before closing at 1849. Wild swings today.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.10%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.55%. Bonds gained 2 ticks, Crude rallied $1.05, Gold dropped $8, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1841 and 1828 pivots, with resistance at the 1869 and 1901 pivots. Tomorrow: Personal income/spending and PCE prices at 8:30, then Consumer sentiment at 10am. FED governor Tarullo gives a speech tonight in NY.

The market altered its recent characteristics today. Instead of rallying at the open, like it has for the past four trading days. It opened lower and went lower before rallying, and then entered a trading range. The opening decline took the SPX back to the OEW 1841 pivot range for the first time in two weeks. The market has vacillated above and below this pivot for all of 2014 so far.

The growth indices, NDX/NAZ, led the market lower again as they hit their lowest levels since February 10th. The NAZ has dropped 5.4% since early March, and most of the growth leaders are already in confirmed downtrends. The SPX/DOW are barely down 2.5% during the same period. If the NDX/NAZ can complete its correction by next week. Then the SPX/DOW are not likely to enter a downtrend, then they can all rise together. If it takes longer, then the SPX/DOW are likely to retest the early February lows.

Short term support is at the 1841 and 1828 pivots, with resistance at the 1869 pivot and SPX 1884. Short term momentum was quite oversold at today’s low, and ended the day above oversold. The short term OEW charts remain negative with the reversal level now SPX 1859. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend weakening

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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102 Responses to thursday update

  1. llerias7 says:

    apart from the mkts…see this vídeo and tell me if youd would not like to invade Ukraine, too!:

    have fun…

  2. Good that yesterday, i did not do anything after covering at 1845.2.

    Best place to short was at 1862, but I was concerned that it may not reach there..Short at 1857.5 (limit order to sell executed within first half hour). Pl. dont ask explanation. SPX moving to 1831 first then-1852-then 1834 and then 1860. When it reaches 1860 will be back again to say what next..

    Next post on Tuesday

    • Yeah you are the trading God and market will do what you fancy!!

    • trondack says:

      So we have a time traveler here! I believe in the “Many Worlds Theory”, so if use your time machine to travel into the future, how do you know that you will return to this world? Good luck anyway!

  3. Citigroup Inc. (C) I’m currently short, my downside target $40.00 even.
    200 dma was serious overhead resistance for Citigroup, 40 dma has been broken, stock should continue its slide lower.


    • Citigroup Inc. (C) Serious Head & Shoulder Play. Basically, Peter Worden, TC 2000 makes serious short case for this stock. Reading the recent news reports, failure of bank stress tests, scandals that are coming forth within the news, pure technicals are negative as Mr. Peter Worden points out in his analysis. Few insiders selling, scroll down the page.

      Ultimately, examination of all the facts, this short candidate, masterful play with options, or straight short, could yield unique opportunity to qualify as one of the best short around.

      Just a matter of conviction, and confidence in your analysis.

      Link above will provide, insider information bottom of page, all of the news items, chart of Head and Shoulder pattern.

      My position: short, target $40 to $38.50


      • The U.S. case included evidence that the former traders conspired with Tom Hayes, a former trader at UBS and Citigroup who was a major ICAP client. Emails cited in the case showed the traders referred to Hayes as “Lord Libor” or “Lord Bailiff” as they allegedly discussed manipulating the benchmark. Hayes has been charged separately by British and U.S. authorities.

        “We deeply regret and strongly condemn the inexcusable actions of the brokers who sought to assist certain bank traders in their efforts to manipulate yen Libor,” said ICAP Group CEO Michael Spencer at the time of the settlement.

        Commentary: I find it interesting on March 27 UBS reiterates its buy rating on Citigroup shares. British investigators along with FBI have solid evidence that UBS and Citigroup were in bed together.

  4. uncle10 says:

    lol, the vix the vix the vix…. nearly everytime it bunches up like this it spikes higher. Given this times bunch is longer and tighter than most and all moving averages are right on ( very tight) , it seems likely the spike higher will be greater and longer lasting. Maybe it will be different this time but I doubt it. Good luck to all and have a great weekend!!

  5. Last post Alof of fun on this board very Nice Caldaro does this to share all our opinions . I said early the bears will win today. IF sentinment indictaor goes green / fear guage/ VIX. Look out below.

  6. lunker1 says:

    I’ve used up my posts for March. TGIF!

    • JK1987 says:

      lunker has 15 posts today, a record?
      Quite emotional.
      Is it because of following? If it’s a position, should stop out.
      lunker1 says:
      March 27, 2014 at 1:27 pm
      the price action since this AM low looks like a pennant triangle which could mean one more down. it measures ~13pts so target would be ~1832

  7. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    Looking a little c of ‘B’ isn here?
    I would be looking for a break of 1876 for this ‘not’ to be a B Wave.
    Anyway Just trading between the lines.

  8. tommyboys says:

    Interesting ECRIs report today shows the 4 week average dropped sharply indicating we certainly slowed yet this week’s number has recovered to it’s highest level since early February showing we’re likely accelerating off recent lows…could explain the last couple months’ activity. Who knows however -make your own assessment. Here’s the report…

    “ECRI WLI Ticks Up
    Growth in a weekly leading index designed to forecast U.S. economic activity has strengthened further.
    According to the Economic Cycle Research Institute, its weekly leading index grew 2.9% in the week ended March 21, up from 2.3% in the previous week. Growth is now at its highest since early February.
    The index itself increased to 133.5 from 133.0. ECRI says “occasionally the WLI level and growth rate can move in different directions, because the latter is derived from a four-week moving average.”

    • torehund says:

      Thanks Tommy, seems like US has been into a flattening/slowing phase since Oct, and the cold spell hampered ind production too. Seems to be recovering as we speak…

  9. Thursday, Bears failed at turning 1850 into resistance, yesterday was perfect trap! Next week, markets around the world will be waiting for serious analysis report.

    Found this on Market Oracle, written by Rojas ?

    The latest report from the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is due out next week. If the leaked draft is reflected in the published report, it will constitute the formal moving on of the debate from the past, futile focus upon “mitigation” to a new debate.

    Some project the lasest report will have serious toll on GDP of world nations.

    It will be interesting how the market jury acts toward the evidence in the report.


  10. Bulls are getting too excited, I see approx 1868 and then We drop to 1820 to 1805

    • lunker1 says:

      Why 1868? Why 1820-05?

      • I see a few possible bear moves but I see this on my radar……w1 at 1842 w2 at 1868 w3 at 1820 etc….

      • mjtplayer says:

        Agree. Window dressing for quarter-end, then down we go next week after Monday. 1,868 pivot and right shoulder on the S&P. Double-head at 1,883/4 with neckline at 1,840 sets-up sub 1,800: I’m still targeting 1,780 – 1,800 area.

        Check out IBB, market is up big and biotech is struggling to stay green, very weak – stay short.

      • JK1987 says:

        1868 is 61.8%, simple as that.

      • lunker1 says:

        Disagree. 60 minute RSI5 today broke out of the resistance down trend TL formed ny 3 lower peaks so perhaps it will backtest that line and also find support at the multiple MA’s at 1860. I’d be guarded on a sustained break below 1860. Watch 4 into 1 at 1854.

      • lunker the guy is bearish. why ask for levels the market has no memory from day to day you can throw EW out the window in this market

      • lunker1 says:

        But the market remembered not to make lower lows yesterday and was the end of wave 2 until it isn’t.

  11. magnus1234 says:

    Different story today. Breadth steady strong +1800. UVOL-DVOL steady line upwards (program demand). Bonds lost direct from cash open. Locals are selling to paper but right now they are flipping them directly with e-minis. They dont dare to keep them. I cling on to my ESM4s

    • llerias7 says:

      Look up to 1900´s. April should be fine for the bulls…probably now in (iii) of Int.III !

    • magnus1234 says:

      With VIX=13.9% translates to a 2 standard deviation span on 16.2. The span so far today (since cash open) is aprox 14. I leave the market for today and say …have a nice weekend.

  12. Not a surprise as indicators were telling you there was no fear and nothing to worry about. Bulls have a ton of confidence and with good reason for the most part the market does not go down. We are within striking distance of all time highs.

    I would say the bears have once chance and that’s to slam this market today and actually show the bulls they can lose.

    As for those keeping a count I give you credit . How do you keep a count and forecast trends in a market that has no memory from day to day.

    Bold forecast ? Bears win today

    • lunker1 says:

      Keep it simple and look for higher highs and lower lows. Haven’t seen any lower lows lately. All that range bound chop on SPX could’ve been wave 2. You got a healthier more normal looking wave 2 retrace on the higher beta indices.

    • oneandonlyuniverse says:

      looks like 1946, not S&P FORECAST, but the year.And that is not good!
      Slv is a go here.

  13. lunker1 says:

    Plus there was positive divergence on Tony’s 60 minute RSI5

    • JK1987 says:

      JK1987 says:
      March 27, 2014 at 9:38 am
      Positive divergence at 1842, right at oew pivot 1841.

      • lunker1 says:

        So why didn’t you go long then?It was a lot better place to go long then 1857 was. “Like I said” wave 2 could go all the way down to 1840 and still be valid.

      • JK1987 says:

        Learned from the experience of 2 days ago.
        If I post my positions, you will keep on asking why buy there, what’s the stop, what’s the target, all sorts of questions to your satisfaction. So I don’t post my position.
        You know, I post with🙂🙂🙂

      • lunker1 says:

        Blindly posting trades is irresponsible so I was guiding you to be more responsible. There’s really no satisfaction in it. It just makes the situation more tolerable.

      • hrmny358 says:

        nonetheless, you had a good month

      • lunker1 says:

        Perhaps a good month or pehaos not. It’s the Internet. He just lost 9 points “All In” which in the past was fully leveraged 3X UPRO and his trades are set up very poorly. Recently he scaled in Longs with an average of 1860 and said his stop was 1848 and he took a profit of 10 points at 1870 so he is willing to risk more than he made. Not smart at all. Good trades should have a 10 to 1 risk reward ratio or higher.

    • JK1987 says:

      Seems like this kind of treatment is only on me – need to give out all sorts of reasons and targets, stop for positions.
      But isn’t posting a position real time an opinion of the market?

      Plus, many other traders post their positions much much later with advantage, and did not say why. I do not see any question asked on them for why what what what.

      So it’s just me. So I make adjustment and no question can be asked.🙂🙂🙂

    • rc1269 says:

      they lost me with the first sentence of, “Once this year’s harsh weather has faded…”
      oh boy. the ‘harsh weather.’ in which the majority of consumer survey participants responded that the gloomy weather actually caused them to spend more than they would have otherwise.
      good luck with the ‘release of pent up demand.’

      • tommyboys says:


      • tommyboys says:

        Never know…I know I’ve postponed a car purchase and home shopping until this week simply because was caught in a virtual blizzard two months ago and the weather hasn’t been amicable since – until this week…and I’m just one guy.

      • rc1269 says:

        sorry, the laughter was just seeing yet another of the perpetual weather/economic apologist articles. so tiresome. always an excuse for what never comes. it’s too hot, it’s too cold, there’s washington gridlock, there’s an election, it’s the olympics, there was a glitch in the matrix, whatever… never ends. how about “this recovery stinks no matter what you blame it on, and that isn’t likely to change arbitrarily any time soon.” through all the excuses that statement would have held true for the last several years. i don’t see why this year’s set of excuses will make that any different.
        this, of course, has nothing to do with the market. as we know it has not gone up due to a robust economic recovery. and it won’t need one to keep going up. for all we know maybe the market will tank if the economy finally decides to grow gangbusters. that yahoo finance article could be bearish!

      • tommyboys says:

        Worst winter in a century here and worst on record by many metrics. Know for a fact kids were home from school for 11 days for weather – THAT’S a record. Factories were closed numerous days. Under normal circumstances I’d say weather is nonsense but when it’s cumulative over weeks it has an effect. Make your best assessment and place your bet. No complaints it’s been an awesome half decade!

  14. lunker1 says:

    if blue holds then median blue is first target.

  15. bennyyubin says:


  16. torehund says:

    Going through th bulkers chart wise, all I see is finished ABCs, this has gotta bi IT.

    • torehund says:

      Look at silver, ABC down from top, looks ripe for an upturn. G-Bugs will join the ride too.
      I haven’t been posting for a while as surfing is now my main priority for the happy prima vera period. However today I jumped on my moped to do some supervising at a more internet friendly location than Barra de la Cruz. Not a city boy for long though, heading back to the surf tomorrow. Didn’t encounter anything overt disturbing, quite the contrary(will China devalue ??).
      Good weekend to all on board.

  17. uas2014 says:

    hello tony. Today you updated the ibovespa chart to uptrending. what is the target for this uptrending? thank you for your work.

  18. bhupal777 says:

    Thanks Tony. SPX is still a mess but everyday bears are losing the advantage they have so far. Most of the stocks posted intra-day reversals today.

    GDX and GDXJ reversed exactly at 61.8% retracement of the rise started from December 23rd. If this is starting of the next up leg then it is going to be a massive rally either a C-wave or 3rd wave. I have entered a small position in GDXJ/JNUG today with today’s low as stop. Good luck all.

    Alcoa (AA) on fire today. It left me in the dust and going higher without me on board. I got stopped out twice after I posted the following chart and never entered again. Well I can’t catch every move. That is part of trading.

  19. esvxm says:

    Thanks for the analysis Tony! choppy chop again today. Dax formed an inside day today just below the 61.8% fibo. Tomorrow should be an interesting day.
    Dax update:

  20. bobhopium says:

    FYI….A large plethora of data from Japan due out in about 18 mins…very lightly to cause action in Globex futures/forex mkts…GL.

  21. pooch77 says:

    Of course with a big pomo day and a bounce due for now didn’t see a big down for now

  22. New evidence today, Thursday, Investors Sentiment numbers. 54.70 is the new reading. Reading of 55.00 is often taken as sell signal.

    No position, might go short next week, sometime.

    Outstanding analysis again, Tony!


    • Kevin M says:

      There’s Amos again the ever changing Chameleon…lol I cant help it Amos but you are one confused dude. You know how you feel and you know what you wrote earlier in the day. “Short now”….”no don’t short”……”yeah I think I’ll short next week now”……My God I”m exhausted now! I need a drink!.

      I cant imagine what you were like during 2008…..yikes…..make way for Amos…I’m sure everybody was saying back then…lol…..

      Good fun my friend……Good fun…..

      Expression is the flavor of life. Never forget that

  23. mjtplayer says:

    Hey Tony,

    Do you have thoughts or comments regarding the April 1st implementation of the Volker Rule?

    I have no idea, nor do I have the desire to study it, but it seems the rule puts an end to banks trading with their own money/propientary accounts and limits the amount they can hold in hedge funds and private equity. We both know they’ll weasel through it somehow, maybe more trading offshore or something…

    • tony caldaro says:

      Thought it was postponed.
      But if not, they had plenty of time to prepare.
      The entire sector is kind of funny/weird.
      Have you ever visited a Goldman Sachs bank?

      • mjtplayer says:

        I know, it’s a joke that GS calls themselves a bank. But, it gets them access to the Fed window and cheap money. Question for GS going forward: deal with the Volker Rule prop trading limitations as a bank or go back to being an investment bank and lose access to the Fed window?

        • tony caldaro says:

          Do you really think any of these investment banks can change now after becoming a bank?
          That’s like GM stating, since we went bankrupt we are no longer liable for problems we knew about before the bankruptcy.
          Governments treat a corporation like it is a person.
          They are not people.
          They are artificial entities that create jobs when their products are in demand, and go defunct when they are not.

  24. radrian6 says:

    As suspected, the RUT tagged and held above the 1147 support area. RUT has now completed a 50% retracement of the February rally so we will now see if the bulls still have the juice to move this market again. I’m not sure that we will see the RUT hit new highs any time soon but the bulls can make their point by stemming the downside and pushing the RUT into a trading range.

    • radrian6 says:

      The RUT has resistance overhead at 1165-72 and the daily Bollinger Band midline is above that at 1188.19 … it will be interesting to see if the oversold technical indicators are enough to pull money back into the market. Don’t overlook the psychology here — the mood has shifted to gloom so a positive attitude must be rebuilt before traders start buying with conviction.

    • radrian6 says:

      Sorry for the multiple posts … I should have gathered my thoughts before engaging my fingers. Anyway, RUT confirmed a double top and the downside target is 1130.92 which is close to the 61.8% Fib retracement level of 1132.61. It is therefore possible that we see a brief consolidation ahead of another leg down — after that, RUT may be able to sustain a rally.

      • amy walter says:

        Thank you Radrian for your thoughtfulness.
        Can you look into spx500, do you see a bearish butterfly pattern forming?
        or I may be wrong. Thank you.

      • radrian6 says:

        Hello Amy,
        I can see a possible butterfly forming but, for me, the more immediate concern is whether SPX will confirm a double top by breaking below 1840. SPX has been in a congested sideways pattern for some time and is storing energy for a breakout move. RUT has already broken down and confirmed the double top. The issue is whether SPX and Dow will follow the RUT lower or will the cyclical indexes and growth indexes each follow a different path.

  25. Thanks, Tony, for another daily commentary. 🙂

    I just saw that a couple folks posted questions to me on your blog yesterday — been too busy at work to have checked until now. However, in answer to their questions, the chart below is the best way to answer the questions — although I did answer J.K.’s specific question within Wednesday’s commentary post. Hope this makes sense — in a hurry again!! Girls night out after working so hard. 🙂

    Have a nice evening, Tony!!$SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p25215815722&a=315374993&listNum=7

    • tony caldaro says:

      girls night out =)

    • Kevin M says:

      I’m not going to comment on the girls night out. lol……There would be so many ways I could go with that one..It’s left to the imagination.

      Imagination is an individual construct..

      • tony caldaro says:

        relax Kevin these are nice people here
        oh, and we do have a three comment daily quota

      • Kevin M says:

        O Tony….Remember to live and let live right? You’re no fun. Ok I can see where I’m not wanted. Who said there were bad people here? I sure didn’t. You have me all wrong but hey that’s par for the course

        I’ll go away…..If that’s what you want.

        A three post rule….Give me a break.. I feel like Im being scolded…..jeeesshhhh

        say la vie…….O and remember new highs by opex APRIL

  26. bobhopium says:

    Thanks Tony..Quite a polarized board lately, which is healthy imo. Here are my thoughts to throw into the mix…of note is blue pos/div and lower red lower parallel which is speculative,but logical. A little wary of one more flush at todays lows, but otherwise happy positioned long atm..Aimho and Gl to all.
    S&P hourly

    • tony caldaro says:

      thx BH
      cyclicals holding, growth sliding down the slope
      maybe just rotation?

    • Kevin M says:

      Spx looks very strong here. If one were to get into the naz or the rut from these lows they should be ok but another low looks probable on those. So sticking with the SPX is the way to go here. There is no guarantee that the Naz/Rut will outperform here. However new highs in the SPX is in the cards. 1849 is a great entry point and slightly below 1840 is even better, if it gets there?(big if).

      New quarter money will fuel the rally in April as well as the better than expected non-farm payrolls, which will beat consensus.

      Good night/good day

      • bob623 says:

        Kevin, I think Tony just meant to show respect to jedi. When I read your post I felt a little uneasy, also. However, you did clear up the issue by your statement above. We are all here to help each other. Hopefully, everyone will keep their comments on a professional basis. We welcome your trading comments; looking forward to them in the future

Comments are closed.