SHORT TERM: growth stocks still driving the market, DOW +91
After the close yesterday the FED released the following: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/bcreg/20140324b.htm. Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.3%. European markets opened higher and gained 1.5%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 9am Case-Shiller was reported lower: +13.2% v +13.4%, but FHFA prices were reported higher: +0.5% v +0.8%. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 1869, then moved up to 1872 just after 10am. The SPX had closed at 1857 yesterday. At 10am Consumer confidence was reported higher: 82.3 v 78.1, but New home sales were reported lower: 440k v 468k. The Growth indices then started to selloff again, and the market started to pullback. At 12:30 the SPX closed the opening gap by hitting 1856, but then began to rally. The rally took the SPX up to 1868 by 3:30, then it dipped to close at 1866.
For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.50%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.25%. Bonds dipped 2 ticks, Crude lost 35 cents, Gold added $2, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1841 and 1828 pivots, with resistance at the 1869 and 1901 pivots. Tomorrow: Durable goods orders at 8:30.
Reviewing the three major indices. The DOW is still below its December high, and has been quite choppy since late-February during this uptrend. The NAZ made a new high in early-March but has been heading lower ever since. The SPX made a new high in early-March, retested that high just last Friday, but has been choppy since early-March. The ingredients for the continuation of an uptrend? At this point, certainly not. A topping process in the cyclical indices while the growth indices head lower? At this point, certainly possible. We continue to closely monitor the NDX/NAZ while waiting for a sustainable upturn. Since last Friday, however, they have been solidly sold within the first hour of trading every day.
Short term support remains at the 1841 and 1828 pivots, with resistance at the 1869 pivot and SPX 1884. Short term momentum hit overbought early, dipped to neutral, and ended in between. The short term OEW charts continue to vacillate with the reversal level now SPX 1865. Best to your trading this day traders market!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bull market