monday update

SHORT TERM: volatility continues, DOW -26

Overnight the Asian markets gained 1.7%. Europe lower and lost 1.2%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 9am a speech from FED governor Stein was released: The market opened four points above Friday’s SPX 1867 close, moved up to 1873 and then started to pullback. This was released at 10am. The market continued to pullback throughout the morning and then hit SPX 1850 by 12:30. A rally to SPX 1860 followed by 2:30. Then a pullback to SPX 1855 by 3:30, was followed by a rally to 1862, before the market pulled back to close at 1857.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.30%, and the NDX/NAZ were -1.10%. Bonds were flat, Crude lost 5 cents, Gold dropped $23, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1841 ad 1828 pivots, with resistance at the 1869 and 1901 pivots. Tomorrow: Case-Shiller and FHFA housing prices at 9am, then Consumer confidence and New home sales at 10am.

The market opened higher today and rallied to SPX 1873. The growth sector (NDX/NAZ), however, was immediately hit with selling pressure right at the open. This selling wave, as previously noted, started right after Friday’s open too. Thus far for the month, after the March 6th high, the NAZ has declined 4.1%. The SPX/DOW at their worse levels, and they made higher lows today, were -2.3% and -2.8% respectively. It appears the NDX/NAZ may be in a downtrend and are creating this choppy environment in the SPX/DOW. In the meantime, we continue to look for a break out above SPX 1884 to resume the uptrend. Or a breakdown below the OEW 1841 pivot range would likely suggest an ongoing downtrend.

Short term support is at the 1841 and 1828 pivots, with resistance at the 1869 pivot and SPX 1884. Short term momentum hit extremely oversold this AM, then bounced towards neutral. The short term OEW charts are negative with the reversal level SPX 1865. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market



About tony caldaro

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60 Responses to monday update

  1. blubrd67 says:

    Anyone with opinion on gold miners here?

  2. gary61b says:

    The art of painting the tape green and selling all the way. IMO

  3. 777daimon says:

    I think that that tradition with “Turning Tuesday” somewhat changed …. 🙂

  4. uncle10 says:

    Not a bad place for a short trade.{ IMO } Gl

      • uncle10 says:

        Hey JK. I think we are in the process of making a top. Its a combination of all the many things that I use to help give me clues to what is more likely to happen. I am wrong sometimes…. Maybe we are getting ready for 3 of 3… up— but I don’t think so. Control risk and make good entries and take some profit when you have them….. wash, rinse, repeat…. gl

      • JK1987 says:

        What’s the two most important things of your combination to short here.
        We are right here at 1867 of your “All in shorts” from the 20th.
        Please be more specific, or you are just talking your positions.

  5. Bears had their chance. they blew it.

    • pimacanyon says:

      jury’s still out IMO. Move up has (so far) retraced only 50 percent of move down. Downtrend could resume from here. The hourly chart since March 7 is a mess. I don’t see any impulsive moves to the upside since then, so this is either some kind of complex corrective wave or the early early beginnings of a more extended downtrend that began at the March 21 high. That first move down can be counted as impulsive IMO.

  6. ES 1850 is .618 back the rally, found support at overnight balance ~49. What I call Fib control.
    we r getting the covering bounce. I will say dead, but rising

  7. magnus1234 says:

    Tony. Whats the probability that 1884 is an X? (I don’t like Xs so I dont want it there)

  8. I would be shocked if the market goes down the next few days as they should keep them even at least for the quarter if not mostly higher.

  9. Markets should close, lower today. Unless you enter the Tigers’s den you cannot take the cubs!

    Procter & Gamble PG failed to make higher high, on its 35 trading hour today, I’m short at $79.80 again..

    Stop loss: $79.85


  10. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    SPY ~ Weekly PPs
    WPP @ 186.90 Testing
    WS1 @ 184.71 Tested Monday
    WR1 @ 189.09 next or retest of WS1?

  11. magnus1234 says:

    YM (DOW) is again showing little more structural strength it trades above y’day high. TF is leading price (%). Breadth strong right from the open and we have multiple $TICK > 900. I’ll will add to my ES @ 1858.50 level (which is equal to O/N globex High).

  12. H D says:

    are we up 10 @ 10? ES backtest TL and .618

    • JK1987 says:

      SPX up 14, took profits here at 1871.5 at 61.8%

      JK1987 says:
      March 24, 2014 at 9:08 am
      1860.5, cheap long, scales in and buy more.

      JK1987 says:
      March 21, 2014 at 3:22 pm
      I see more up with the up trending chop city.
      Long into the close 1866.

      JK1987 says:
      March 24, 2014 at 9:19 am
      1859.21, positive divergence, give me more 1860-

      JK1987 says:
      March 24, 2014 at 9:32 am
      1855.5, all in long, very cheap long.

      • buddyglove says:

        Very Cool Mr JK…..keep em comin’ 🙂

      • H D says:

        so u held long 16 point against u? OK…. I took my set up, took an extra minute to get em all filled. Have a great day all.

      • JK1987 says:

        HD, GL to your short at SPX 1871+
        yes it was 16 points against, but I kept on scaling longs.
        the last one was the largest scaled position.
        1855.5, all in long, very cheap long.

        I did the same on the scaled in shorts, from 1867 all the way to 1883.
        So far entire March is very profitable, no single loss trade.
        I think buddyglove follows and knows. 🙂

    • tony caldaro says:

      we are past 10am and NQ is still rising

  13. Procter & Gamble PG Interesting 34 trading hour trade set up: today’s might be right shoulder high at 79.86? Using five minute trading system, I’m short at 79.65 with stop loss at $79.70

  14. Pre-Market Volume Totals for four major stocks, IBM 600 shares, GE1,536, BA 204, GM 3,310 all four trading higher, Short term trading index closed at 1.12 on Monday, CBOE volatility index closed highe at 15.09 bullish divergence still in place, Elliott Wave Oscillator, from March 10 to March 21.

    Cycles: I’m currently, leaning toward April 14 low in the markets. Break of SPX 1840 should give high low risk entry to short.


  15. esvxm says:

    Pretty ugly close for the European index, the leading German DAX30. US indices showing weakness, $NYA didn’t make a new high, SPX did attempt before being soldoff last week.
    Some thoughts on the German DAX with the possibility of a H&S pattern. Dow PA has been quite similar, just my IMO.

  16. I know everyone here misses TheYenGuy, so I thought it would be helpful to post a link to his blog. Updated over the weekend. What more can anyone ask for to make the night special?

  17. Hi Tony

    A break below 1841 would mean Primary wave III done and Primary IV begun?

  18. bouraq says:

    No peace for gold bugs:

  19. budfox9450 says:

    I am guessing the Nasdaq Tony, has a lot
    fo Pharmacy, BioTech types in the index.
    IBB has been looking down, for a while now…

  20. simpleiam says:

    Thanks Tony!

    mjtplayer, thx for the tip on BIS. Took a small position on Fri, which I was hesitant to do, but took the chance. Got small but sweet return.

    Have to stay out a while. I’m so sick, I can barely hold my head up. 2014 = The Year of My Discontent

    GL Everyone.


  21. Break above 1868, will take SPX to 1888 (but very unlikely scenerio).

    Obama is meeting in Netherland. Naturally, when he comes out he will declare victory. Bloomberg will run stories on Russian economic recession. Janet Yellen will come and assure markets of FED support..

    As said two days before, SPX targeting 1831. Tomorrow, It should gap open to 1862, then fall to 1851 and then rise to 1858 and suddenly crash thro’ 1849. This weekend closing is going to be SHORT TERM BUY signal. But no SHORT TERM BUY before end of the play Friday. GLTA.

  22. thanks tony; maybe my rose-colored glasses are too bullish but on the INDU it appears as if another bullish pattern is developing: ascending triangle. If correct it targets 16,600-16,700. Break below the ascending line will negate the pattern

    Many tech stocks becoming, in some cases seriously, OS (AMZN, FB, GOOG, LNKD, NFLX, SCTY, TSLA, TWTR) it can always get worse, but IMHO some do need to rebound -at least- to take some of the selling pressure off.

  23. bhupal777 says:

    Thanks Tony. IMHO, SPX is not going to break in either direction for a while. It is going to test trader’s patience with more choppiness between 1880 and 1840. Of course it is a day traders’ dream. Not for me. Best bet is to short weak stocks (CELG, WFM, DG, GM etc…) and go long on strong stocks (FTR, NBR, KRE, RF, FSLR etc..). In any case it is not a time to be a hero with large positions in either direction. Patience, patience… Good Luck all.

  24. 777daimon says:

    the support of the channel was broken and then retested during the last 30 minutes on Monday.
    more downside coming, and not only on Tuesday.
    medium supports: 1839, 1794;
    big supports: 1738 and 1576.

  25. lunker1 says:

    watching SPX for LL in AM w +D on 60

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