SHORT TERM: volatility continues, DOW -26
Overnight the Asian markets gained 1.7%. Europe lower and lost 1.2%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 9am a speech from FED governor Stein was released: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/stein20140324a.htm. The market opened four points above Friday’s SPX 1867 close, moved up to 1873 and then started to pullback. This http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/bcreg/20140324a.htm was released at 10am. The market continued to pullback throughout the morning and then hit SPX 1850 by 12:30. A rally to SPX 1860 followed by 2:30. Then a pullback to SPX 1855 by 3:30, was followed by a rally to 1862, before the market pulled back to close at 1857.
For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.30%, and the NDX/NAZ were -1.10%. Bonds were flat, Crude lost 5 cents, Gold dropped $23, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1841 ad 1828 pivots, with resistance at the 1869 and 1901 pivots. Tomorrow: Case-Shiller and FHFA housing prices at 9am, then Consumer confidence and New home sales at 10am.
The market opened higher today and rallied to SPX 1873. The growth sector (NDX/NAZ), however, was immediately hit with selling pressure right at the open. This selling wave, as previously noted, started right after Friday’s open too. Thus far for the month, after the March 6th high, the NAZ has declined 4.1%. The SPX/DOW at their worse levels, and they made higher lows today, were -2.3% and -2.8% respectively. It appears the NDX/NAZ may be in a downtrend and are creating this choppy environment in the SPX/DOW. In the meantime, we continue to look for a break out above SPX 1884 to resume the uptrend. Or a breakdown below the OEW 1841 pivot range would likely suggest an ongoing downtrend.
Short term support is at the 1841 and 1828 pivots, with resistance at the 1869 pivot and SPX 1884. Short term momentum hit extremely oversold this AM, then bounced towards neutral. The short term OEW charts are negative with the reversal level SPX 1865. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bull market