SHORT TERM: gap up opening then retreat, DOW -28
Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.6%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.3%. US index futures were higher overnight and the market gapped up to SPX 1878 at the open. The SPX had closed at 1872 yesterday. In the opening minutes the SPX hit its all time high at 1884 then began to pullback. By 10:30 the SPX hit 1876, bounced to 1883 by 11:30, and then headed lower. The pullback accelerated in the afternoon as the SPX hit 1865 by 2:30, bounced to 1870 by 3pm, then hit 1863 around 3:30 before an 1867 close.
For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.25%, and the NDX/NAZ were -1.05%. Bonds gained 4 ticks, Crude rose 60 cents, Gold rallied $6, and the USD was lower. Medium term support drops the 1841 and 1828 pivots, with resistance at the 1869 and 1901 pivots. Last night the FED reported an increase in the monetary base: $3.963tn v $3.898tn. Today the WLEI was reported flat: 52.3% v 52.3%.
The market gapped up at the open, hit SPX 1884, then started to pullback as the NDX/NAZ sold off. Options expiration noise? Or a failure by the DOW/NDX/NAZ to match recent highs like the SPX? This market has been quite choppy for the past four weeks, while remaining in a SPX 1834 to 1884 range. The advance from last week’s SPX 1840 low (1874-1850-1884-1863) can be counted as a 1-2-1-2, or an a-b-c then down. As long as SPX 1850 holds we’ll lean towards the former.
Short term support is at the 1841 and 1828 pivots, with resistance at the 1869 pivot and SPX 1884. Short term momentum dropped from quite overbought this AM to oversold, and ended there. The short term OEW charts turned negative again with the reversal level at SPX 1869. Best to your weekend!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bull market