friday update

SHORT TERM: gap up opening then retreat, DOW -28

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.6%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.3%. US index futures were higher overnight and the market gapped up to SPX 1878 at the open. The SPX had closed at 1872 yesterday. In the opening minutes the SPX hit its all time high at 1884 then began to pullback. By 10:30 the SPX hit 1876, bounced to 1883 by 11:30, and then headed lower. The pullback accelerated in the afternoon as the SPX hit 1865 by 2:30, bounced to 1870 by 3pm, then hit 1863 around 3:30 before an 1867 close.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.25%, and the NDX/NAZ were -1.05%. Bonds gained 4 ticks, Crude rose 60 cents, Gold rallied $6, and the USD was lower. Medium term support drops the 1841 and 1828 pivots, with resistance at the 1869 and 1901 pivots. Last night the FED reported an increase in the monetary base: $3.963tn v $3.898tn. Today the WLEI was reported flat: 52.3% v 52.3%.

The market gapped up at the open, hit SPX 1884, then started to pullback as the NDX/NAZ sold off. Options expiration noise? Or a failure by the DOW/NDX/NAZ to match recent highs like the SPX? This market has been quite choppy for the past four weeks, while remaining in a SPX 1834 to 1884 range. The advance from last week’s SPX 1840 low (1874-1850-1884-1863) can be counted as a 1-2-1-2, or an a-b-c then down. As long as SPX 1850 holds we’ll lean towards the former.

Short term support is at the 1841 and 1828 pivots, with resistance at the 1869 pivot and SPX 1884. Short term momentum dropped from quite overbought this AM to oversold, and ended there. The short term OEW charts turned negative again with the reversal level at SPX 1869. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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23 Responses to friday update

  1. esvxm says:

    Thanks Tony! Good post. That 1880 level has been quite tough to break to the upside.

  2. preliminary friday mkt. update (within remark’s sect. of blog):

  3. hucky2 says:

    On the attached chart, the blue and green trend lines are what I see as immediate resistance areas.
    Line significance is rated by colour.
    If price were to continue to hug the blue line, we will clearly cross 1900 in the next month or so.
    I expect Tony’s 1841 pivot will be retested before that.
    In my opinion odds favour a pullback before mid week!

  4. bhupal777 says:

    Thanks Tony. As lot of traders expecting next week may not be a break or make story. Instead it is going to be more choppy market as big players rotating from high flying stocks (ex: Bio-techs) to value stocks ( big financials, MSFT, CSCO etc…). Myself neither short nor long on SPX. Coming to China market today where is all that strength came from? FXI is up almost 3%.

  5. As I mentioned today in my post while the markets were at highs that we have seen the highs for the year. When huge blocks are unloaded buy HFTs and not absorbed which has been the opposite of the last 3 years this is something to take not as what happened to the qqq. Should algo step away there is no bid under this market. A warning to those who are watching counts and retracements. Any rally should be sold into. Nobody rings the bell at the top and hope does not come with a parachute.

  6. radrian6 says:

    RUT is still retreating from contacts with the weekly upper Bollinger Band. The intraday charts look shaky — RUT is now flirting with 60-min trend-line support. The sideways price action has stored plenty of energy for a breakout move and now that we’re through expiration, that move is likely to come. RUT is still close to the weekly upper BB which limits upside potential.

    Most of the recent pullbacks reached the 13-week EMA and/or the weekly BB midline which suggests there is more downside business to complete. There is support near 1164 and more at 1148 but a downside break of 1172 confirms a double top and may lead to a lower target. Volatility is still fairly low with the RVX at 19.38 but the RVX is trending higher.

    Given all the above, RUT may break lower to complete the correction before resuming the uptrend towards 1240-1255 by April OpEx.

  7. 777daimon says:

    glad that me and Mr Soros are thinking the same.
    I proposed this idea here about 2 weeks ago 🙂 related to price of gas and oil…. 🙂

  8. lunker1 says:

    SPX got the bounce off the 60min 89EMA but no need to play hero here. Everything in cash now. Long above 1884 only if the Dow breaks above today’s high.

  9. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    I feel like the last bull standing. 😦
    I will let my long held SPY stop out @ 184.50 if this is the end.
    Enjoy the Weekend all.

    • You are not alone.

    • makiori says:

      last bull standing??? 20 odds point from historical high? you must be kidding! the entire world is long (still…). And don’t worry the ever efficient plunge protection team at the NY FED, is always there to bail you out.

  10. JK1987 says:

    Tony Thanks
    I see more up with the up trending chop city.
    Long into the close 1866.

  11. mike7x says:

    Thanks Tony, but…which way do we go? Weekend Update…

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