wednesday update

SHORT TERM: gap down opening, DOW -11

Overnight the Asian markets lost 1.4%. European markets opened lower and lost 1.0%. US index futures were lower overnight and the market gapped down to SPX 1860 at the open. The SPX had closed at 1868 yesterday. In the opening minutes the SPX dropped to 1854, a 61.8% retracement of the recent rally, and then began to rally. By 11:30 the SPX hit 1868 to close the downside gap, and then began to drift lower. At 3:30 the SPX hit 1863, then bounced to 1868 ending the day unchanged.

For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.40%. Bonds gained 10 ticks, Crude dropped $1.80, Gold rallied $19, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1841 and 1828 pivots, with resistance at the 1869 and 1901 pivots. Tomorrow: weekly Jobless claims at 8:30, along with Retail sales, and Export/Import prices, then Business inventories at 10am.

The market gapped down at the open today for the first time since March 3rd. Then found support at SPX 1854, exactly 30 points below the recent 1884 high. This pullback falls within the 18 to 34 point range, during this uptrend from SPX 1738. This pullback, however, was larger than expected for a Minute wave two. Should the market continue to fall and drop below SPX 1850 we would get a little concerned for the medium term. Should the market rally back above SPX 1870 the short term trend would start to look positive again.

Short term support is at SPX 1859 and the 1841 pivot, with resistance at the 1869 pivot and SPX 1884. Short term momentum hit extremely oversold this morning, then moved back above neutral. The short term OEW charts remain negative with the reversal level now SPX 1870. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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97 Responses to wednesday update

  1. Lee says:

    Who ever called todays move please stand up and say your name

    oldie but a goodie (I have a whole bag of these) thats #3

  2. Lee says:

    I guess that’s technically pivot time

  3. iamwhoiis says:

    Any thoughts on the miners – short term (like overnight/tomorrow morning)?

    • torehund says:

      read my post from yesterday, nothing has changed. Gold to retest all time high(wave 3 coming) and rally alongside commodities when China has its bear rally.

  4. scottycj1 says:

    This is a section of last nights Update at the Members Site
    S&P 500- Closes UP .57 + .03 %

    Down hard on the open and a late rally puts the mkt just above even for the day. Things are rolling over and tomorrow looks to be a critical day in the direction of things to come. EWavers are either very bullish or bearish right here. I have a low due either tomorrow or Monday—not sure which it will be. Tomorrow does hold a signature that could lead to a large down day of near 30-35 points. The VIX has a lot of room to go up for a low—so not out of the question. That would put us right back at our old friend 1835 + or – . After next Monday I see mostly up cycles until near month end… depending on how low we get should determine what levels the following highs should reach. I have a gut feeling that we may still be building the high and that mid April will be important. We might not make a new high….but there is likely to be some type of high there. So I’m planning to stay short thru next Monday and then be a bit long into later in the month.

  5. Thanks for updating the counts Tony and providing an alternate on the DOW. Market is not making it easy again… Anticipate, monitor, adjust. Never getting married to one count (or position). GL all!

  6. rc1269 says:

    Tony is is a problem that the Dow dipped below 16174?

  7. Still long TZA from 14.57 per our Major 3 highs call of 1884… below 1841 confirms Major 4 for us…. buckle up…. we still have some long stock positions but we trimmed them back big last 48 hours

  8. JK1987 says:

    With my switched long position (3X long), I am looking for 1874.
    Already covered shorts and took profits from 1874 to 1846 with 28 points.
    Don’t think it’s 3 of 3 of 3 up wave, it took too long, 8 days, to be true.

  9. amy walter says:

    Looks like we will retest 1834 soon…

  10. scottycj1 says:

    Is this market crying UNCLE ? 🙂

  11. magnus1234 says:

    Im flat…these future roll-weeks makes me dizzy….nice profit though

  12. CygnetNoir says:

    Like Uncle said … nice call on the Big Down alert, Uncle! Just watch out for those snap back rallies – they can give you some equity whiplash like you wouldn’t believe 😉

    uncle10 says:
    March 11, 2014 at 2:22 pm

    … on SPX looks to me that we have a lower high and lower lower. Big down alert? eh.

    • CygnetNoir says:

      Dow right back to flirting with its November 2013 high … if I were a betting man, or, perhaps, a trader, I might be looking at this 1617ish level as a cheap short meaning a close stop. Time Stamp 1:31 EDT

    • uncle10 says:

      Thanks, but nah, tis wasn’t my call, but yours…… 😉 and Scotty’s!!! lol
      Mr. Vix’s weekly, daily, and 4 hour —all look scary….

      • CygnetNoir says:

        Too modest, you are, Sir Uncl-a-lot … Dow did the little dipsy doodle from 16170’s back to the 16150ish level, which was its first pause of not after the rally from the lod started. And here it is, right back at that 16170’s. That is the level to watch – be a bull above it, and a bear below it, but neither so bullish or bearish you miss when something wicked this way comes from the other direction.

    • uncle10 says:

      BTW, I hear you about equity whiplash!! Lost about 5 g’s in the last 20 minutes…. hahahah

      • tony caldaro says:

        Nice work guys … no matter who was first

      • CygnetNoir says:

        It was Uncle – he called it and he ‘splained it. I tip my hat to him 🙂

        Hey Uncle, I was down 4k in my day trading account until about 20 minutes ago – now I am up $1K on the day and I am calling it quits. Thanks for playing

      • CygnetNoir says:

        there was supposed to be a “nudge nudge wink wink 🙂 ” at the end of that last post, Uncle – didn’t mean to offend.

      • uncle10 says:

        CN, of course no offense taken. Its all good….;)

  13. torehund says:

    Benign downturn as I see it, lots of stocks making that final retest of support before next upturn. Some soon to enter 3rd of 3rd from bottom as I think my ROSG as an example. This market has never been letting the bulls fall asleep.

    • torehund says:

      China finally bottoming out paving the road for a commodity bear rally, fast and furious. My proj for Shanghai is still around 4000, a double from here, keep your patience and good luck !

  14. i was alerted on march 8 sharp correction will expect soon now its start

  15. JK1987 says:

    1846, covered shorts, switch to long.

  16. I wont be posting here for few more days, now.

    If this wave take typically down to 1.6 times the first down (1st wave of 30 points; 1884 minus 1854) to about 1828 (where 50dma stands), then I suggest (to those who cant play markets) to become paid member of Robert prechter. I dont know Robert and nor I paid anyone a cent for such services. Robert will start going right after now.

    If it touches 1820ish and reverses, there is INVERSE H&S happening which will show target of 2000, and people will jump in. Now that reversal should abort at 1852ish forming H&S targeting 200dma and that will take you down there. DYODD

    • JK1987 says:

      So you are theyenguy, Mr. Richard Gorton, according to our data base.

    • robnaardin says:

      Thanks shrihas

      Usually when you have a long uptrend with a series of higher highs and higher lows and then suddenly a lower low occurs followed by a higher high; It turns into a brown and smelly p2 or p4 that you scrape off your shoe.

  17. JK1987 says:

    Like Lee Said
    Tune out noise and enjoy bull market.
    We are in the mid inning of the bull market.

  18. JK1987 says:

    oew Minor 3: 3 of 3 of 3 up has been speculated since March 4.
    It’s has been 8 days, and never came.
    Something must be wrong with the 3 of 3 of 3 up count.
    Time to bring the alternate? Primary III top at 1883?
    I am fully short against today’s 1874 with 3 waves up at 61.8%.

  19. gary61b says:

    SPX, 1845 would fill gap on 60min and If A = 1854, B =1874, and A=C at about 1845. 1844.5 would be 78.6% retrace of 1834-1884, anything below this level probabilities of a bounce are reduced.

  20. uncle10 says:

    CNBC cracks me up.

  21. budfox9450 says:

    The SP500 BoYu is in Sell mode since 3/6.
    The Weekly remains Bullish, but is leaning toward
    a bear downside pattern. For now, still positive,
    The SP BoYu monthly is technically Bulish, but
    the BoYu is now flat coming off the 12/31 high.
    The key Red signal line is stil in an up mode,
    thus the signal is Bullish, the only negative is the
    BoYu pattern is now moving sideways vs raising.
    The key signal alos for me is the Monthly BoYu
    XLY, that is leaning negative, at this time….Bud

  22. Got my sell signal today. Bought SDS. Holding shorts I already owned and dumped remainder of longs as they gave their sell signals. This is swing trading — not investing.

  23. SPX Downward Wave C support levels…

    .618 near 1859.

    Wave A minus .618 near 1854.50

    1.0 near 1849.60.

    1.618 near 1834..


    Thanks. Mr. Caldaro…

  24. JK1987 says:

    Like Lee Always Said, cheap short.
    1874, 3 waves up at 61.8%.

  25. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    SPY ~ Testing the WPP again ~ WS1 is at 183.77
    Close above Wednesday low is critical for the trend to continue. IMO

    • McDonald’s five minute, nice short term bottom play, daily time frame, I don’t care for. Tight stop loss here, might be good trade.

      • McDonald’s broke through $98.00 stop loss.. I’m stop out for small loss, best to stay on the sidelines today..

      • McDonald’s would need to regain, $98.23 support level, before one could turn bullish with short term trade. Five minute at 8:20 a.m. It tested $98.23 support after losing it. Now, odds would favor its going lower to next support level.

    • tkuz says:

      Never bet against the big MCD when it is shamrock shake season … the leprechauns will take your pot of gold!

  26. magnus1234 says:

    Int ii is not done yet imho. I am positioned for a 1859-56 revisit.

  27. mjtplayer says:

    The Dollar Index is getting close to critical support at 79, almost time to go long the buck. Although, a meaningful break of 79 would be very bearish – it has to hold!

  28. l0llapal0zza says:

    Hi all. Kudos to the tony and the board. Quite the team. Question for the board regarding oil. Looks like a clean abc correction so far, where a=c. Are you looking at much lower prices long term? Wouldn’t this c wave extend the a? Or expecting to chop here in a d wave before heading lower? Back to lurking. L

  29. 777daimon says:

    Things are not so “pink clouds, unicorns and rosy smiles” !
    From China data bluntly disapointed:
    -the worst Chinese Industrial Production reading since August 2009
    -that was the worst Chinese Fixed Asset Investment number since December 2002

    If this is bullish, I’m the real Santa Claus! Considering the commercial ties between US and China I have to be truly blind to not see the storm that is forming!

    • 777daimon says:

      oh, I’m sorry for being so dumb and follow fundamental real signals!

      how could I forget to check the circus POMO program?
      today it’s the second POMO of the month as volume (3.25-4 bln $) hitting the sweet spot right after the retail sales report!
      …. c’mon lousy slaves, bring the dope!
      need those rosy market heights or I’ll start feeling again those withdrawal states….
      for real true sensations , VIX under 12 pls!

  30. bhupal777 says:

    Tony, Today the minute wave ii came very close to .618x of minute wave i at 1854. If the current count holds good then we should see very strong tape reading tomorrow or on Friday to confirm that we are in minute wave iii. If it drops below 1834 then I am sure you agree that the current count will not hold good and needs to be reviewed and adjusted. Thanks for the update.

    Today I went long on MPC and PSX on breakouts. Both are energy stocks. See the charts below

  31. bouraq says:


    • blackjak100 says:

      Thanks bouraq! I fairly confident gold’s rally will end at the upper band now towards $1385-$1390. It looks like wave 3 of c of Y of WXY just completed at $1375. Just need wave 4 correction followed by final fifth wave which could top on Friday!

    • robnaardin says:

      Thanks Borat
      It appears the spx retest of the broken nov12/june13 TL has failed.
      Hope you don’t mind your new nickname?

  32. Hi Tony

    I see an a-b (1868-1882) and now in c.
    I expect that c will be a 5 wave structure, whereby we are in minute-4 within c (appears like a flat), looking for a rapid deep lower (below today’s low) to complete minute-5 of c (gap down tomorrow?).
    After that I will be looking for a 1-2-3 structure to go long.
    If the 1-2-3 structure develops with a gap up tomorrow morning, scrap the above and go long.

  33. torehund says:

    Gold and miners looking better for every day, seems like wave one and two from bottom are mostly finished and a gapish wave 3 waiting. Retest of all time highs for gold in the cards. Coal bottoming out, bull ! Nat gas soon bullish two.
    If Syria was a wave one, Ukraine is a wave two, tumultuous climax could impede nat gas delivery to Europe that mostlly traverses Ukraine. Happy spring to all on board, CBMX and MELA soon to make that bullish cross on the weekly.

  34. robnaardin says:

    Tony, I have no idea who yen guy is. Why do I sound like him?
    Shiras, do you think it’s p4 time too?

    • That was brilliant from Tony

      • McDonald’s still poised to make third higher high, $Tick on hourly making higher lows, closed at +536 $Trin closed 1.21 appears to trending lower. Balance of Power indicator along with TSV time segmented volume by TC 2000 software, 100% readings on McDonald’s still. TSV closed above its moving average today, always bullish sign. Will be monitoring McDonald’s pre market volume on Thursday, don’t have position at moment, might go long McDonald’s on Thursday. Great Analysis today by Tony again. GL

      • Elliott Wave Oscillator last week closed at -.65 on McDonald’s, currently at -.01 Predictive value pointing to $103 per share. Daily reading at +1.55 much higher than 2-26-2014 highs. McDonald’s Buyback program is in full force. Free money! TC 2000 software has something like 80 different indicators, I think they offer free 14 day trial still. Must software for serious scalpers like myself. McDonald’s just confirming bull market still ongoing.

        Tonys OEW has pin pointed it….

    • tony caldaro says:

      That comment was directed to Shrihas

  35. RDC says:

    Thanks Tony.

  36. thanks Tony! Looks like a bullish reversal candle today on the daily SPX, but it needs to be followed up tomorrow with a nice green in order for it to be valid. In addition, NYSE filled the opening gap from last Tuesday.

    Anything particular on the economic news radar tomorrow?

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