tuesday update

SHORT TERM: pullback resumes, DOW -67

Overnight the Asian markets were mixed. Europe opened higher and closed mixed as well. US index futures were lower overnight, but crept up just before the open as the SPX opened at 1880. Three points above yesterday’s close. After a pullback to SPX 1873 by 10am, and Wholesale inventories reported higher: +0.6% v +0.3%, the market started to rally. By 11am the SPX hit 1882, but that was the high for the day. After that the market pulled back to SPX 1869 by 1:30, bounced to 1874 by 2pm, then headed lower. Just past 3pm the SPX hit 1864, then bounced into a 1868 close.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.45%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.55%. Bonds gained 3 ticks, Crude lost $1.40, Gold rose $7, and the USD was flat. Medium term support drops to the 1841 an 1828 pivots, with resistance at the 1869 and 1901 pivots. Tomorrow: the Budget deficit at 2pm.

The market opened higher, pulled back to SPX 1873, which appeared odd for the beginning of a third wave, then rallied to 1882. After that it was all downhill for the rest of the day. Clearly the rally from SPX 1867-1882 was oddly only a B wave. After a 50 point rally, SPX 1834-1884, pullbacks of 20, 25 and 30 points would be considered normal. These suggest: 1864, 1859 and 1854. Yesterday we noted the range of the pullbacks during this uptrend have been: 18-34 points. With 18-23 normal for this wave degree. At today’s low the pullback was 20 points.

Short term support drops to SPX 1859 and the 1841 pivot, with resistance at the 1869 pivot and SPX 1884. Short term momentum is trying to set up a positive divergence at today’s low. The short term OEW charts vacillated today ending the day negative, with the reversal level now SPX 1872. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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103 Responses to tuesday update

  1. perversionofthemean says:

    Why do we ascribe market events as having been “caused by” Bernanke or Bush or Clinton, etc.? The peak of 2000 was a measured-move target back from the ’95. The lows of ’02 and ’09 were as well. When targets are reached, markets reverse. Should we blame the president of the U.S. (or Greenspan or Bernanke) for the GLOBAL real estate meltdowns, etc.? Could it be that waves don’t care who’s in office? If these people caused the bear markets, then aren’t they causing the ensuing bull markets. Should we thank Obama and Bernanke since the market is at new highs?

  2. tommyboys says:

    LOL. … Think Yen Guy may have changed his ID.

  3. simpleiam says:

    GL All. On my way to the hospital. Possibly Diverticulitis or worse. Not having a fun time of it. Take care of yourselves. Since I know Neil is going to be on CNBC shortly, here’s to him! Wish me luck.

  4. 777daimon says:

    not pretty …russians bring soldiers at the Eastern Ukrainian border….
    not pretty

  5. ggok1 says:

    Hi Tony
    I am thinking the same thing about China, which is why I was asking about its impact on US.

  6. I see negative market comments here expressing bearishness, that says to me that SPX will remain around here for few days. and then positive comments will start appearing, and then market will start descend…next week FOMC, and Yellen will say something positive about economy and if you ask her difficult question she will say “will speak to my team…”,

    Whereas brainless Ben always believed in his theories and gave confident answers (though wrong!!) for example; in two FOMC conferences, he said “We predicted unemployment rate of 8% and it is 7%, but we predicted GDP growth of 5% and it came at 2.5%, so were over optimistic somewhere and under optimistic somewhere”, Now, that implies that there is no correlation between unemployment and GDP growth. if you get one right, you also should get another right. But that idiot was saying otherwise. Typical case of an idiot fooling 300 millions.

    We are soon getting to a stage where SPX will follow wave count…We have two major indices (out of the USA) strictly following BEARISH Elliott pattern, which is a good sign and SPX soon should follow.

    • robnaardin says:

      Ok here’s a positive comment. Ben is not brainless.
      Too cynical to think he’s brainless.

      • RDC says:

        Agree. If you can’t say anything nice then don’t say at all. Bernanke did what he thought was best for the country.

      • I know, he is not brainless, Someone who is Ph.D cant be brainless. But, it is important that propaganda needs to be countered by Propaganda with twice the strength. Else, likes Ben/Warren/Jim O’Neill; starts influencing minds of poor people who buy stocks and become poor and these people come back again to sell them at high prices and cycle repeats

        From the comments I see here on this and other boards, most dont know/cant predict what is in store. In short run, may be someone will be lucky to get few wave counts right, but this time, it is going to be different. World financial markets will not give a chance to cover your positions…People think that they have stop loss in place and sleep peacefully..During volatile times, stop loss are useless and if it happens over the weekend, you are bankrupt…

        You are warned.

      • tommyboys says:

        LOL – think Yen Guy changed his ID! (Sorry for double post)

    • Dr. Bernanke is not “brainless”. His dissertation was all about the Great Depression. His methods and “solution” in recent years helped avert another depression in the US. You can disagree as to the long-term effectiveness, the potential impacts on future inflation, etc. But the fact is that the world economies have benefited from central bank stimulus in the past five years. Just look at your portfolio to verify that. If you haven’t made a lot of money, it’s not his fault. Just change your investment approach, your risk management strategy, etc., instead of being obstinate and dogmatic. Good luck with future investments.

  7. uncle10 says:

    Afternoon. Mr. Vix is coiling up. Sure looks like something is brewing… gl all.

  8. llerias7 says:

    1854…what a rush! Now…+100 points in 5 weeks…(!)

  9. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    SPY ~ Oscillating the WPP @ 186.99
    Would love to see a HH hold today. Or we can just gap and consolidate, seems to be the operand as of late.

  10. joseph3000 says:

    anyone on FNMA? I think there is a support at 2.73?

  11. Tony wrote “After a 50 point rally, SPX 1834-1884, pullbacks of 20, 25 and 30 points would be considered normal. These suggest: 1864, 1859 and 1854.”

    SPX did: 1854.03, followed by strong reversal…


  12. 777daimon says:

    on 5 min chart the rise of SPX 500 from the lows has a clear ending diagonale look …. I don’t touch longs, very dangerous to get long at this point.

  13. H D says:

    GM Tony, all. ES was down almost perfect 34, 33.75 at lows (also 618 back) and has rallied more than 10. It fits the definition of “important PB”. let’s see if they can sustain buy programs for more than an hour or if sellers take control again under 66.25. GL

  14. RDC says:

    It’s pretty funny, more Ackman bashes Herbalife (HLF), higher it goes 🙂

    • pimacanyon says:

      Isn’t doing what he’s doing illegal? Why doesn’t the SEC nail him?

      • budfox9450 says:

        I do not know all the details to your question.
        But – I do not think so. I know the asian community
        trust this productLline. They spend generally
        $100 per month, for these living giving products
        in their view….Bud

      • budfox9450 says:

        Below, I ref to the products,

      • RDC says:

        Ackman is doing this to lower the price which is off course illegal. I always take some long position in HLF right before his presentations and always came out winner.

      • H D says:

        pima canyon? R u from Tucson?

  15. JK1987 says:

    Perfect Minor ii location at 1854.38, cheap long.

  16. alexhartley1 says:

    Hi Tony – What odds do you give the recent 1884 high as being Major 3 high of PIII please? Thanks, Alex

    • tony caldaro says:

      That count does not fit in either the NAZ/NDX/DOW … so not much

    • Tonys Analysis + McDonald’s higher move yesterday, today’s, 1 minute reversal bar on the first seven minutes of trading, entered long McDonald’s, $98.26 closed the position at $98.50 on 3 minute time cycle! For nice $.24 gain. Day trade only.

      Outstanding Analysis! On Tuesday, opens the doors, many trading opportunities.

  17. ggok1 says:

    Hi Tony
    I am one of those quiet lurkers in the background, who read your blog everyday.! I have a question…
    I have been looking at China and was wondering what your thoughts are. Your charts have a triangle formation going on, which seems to be in the last stages of a big C. Is this right? So do you see a breakdown out of the triangle and China to get more bearish? Or is this the last stages of the triangle to then break upwards? It’s sitting near key supports. And do you think that a breakdown will affect US? Could that be a trigger for primary 4?

  18. Hi all, can’t wait to hear whose hedge fund blew up and was forced to sell out their copper contracts. Well, I don’t know that’s the case but it wouldn’t be surprising.
    Seems like if anything copper is signaling the rally in commodities is nothing but a B wave and will be unwound. Maybe time to look for some turns to get short the commodities futures? Silver looks like a dog. If it can’t rally on the gold rally (because industrial metals falling are cancelling out the gold rally as far as influence is concerned) then what happens when gold rolls over? My guess is silver breaks lows. Will be looking for one more good pop to short it. No rush.

  19. mike7x says:

    So it’s about time for a good downtrend (?)…cuz this is just a big bunch of bull…


    FWIW. And, thanks Tony.

    • budfox9450 says:

      Mike your correct. My SP500 BoYu, daily signal
      went Bearish at the close 3/11. The Weekly SP500
      BoYu signal has a Neg Divergence pattern 3/7 week.
      While not an outright sell signal, the neg D pattern
      should be concerning – Conclusion is your view is
      correct by my work…..Bud

      • Kevin M says:


        Can you explain your BoYu indicator and how it works.


      • jeffbalin says:

        What general time frames are your daily and weekly signals bud?

        My thinking is we may be correcting the move from 1738
        if we go much lower

      • mike7x says:

        Thanks Bud. With the FOMC meeting next week and concerns over Ukraine and slower growth in China, things could get very interesting for the second half of March.

  20. Young Tom says:

    If anyone has an interest, follow the link from free stock charts and go to #24 , Rough Dollars. Look at his very simple$INDU chart and the TSI indicator. Look left and follow the cross over. When your ready use DXD. Too simple.

  21. Jennifer says:

    Thx for the update!

    U.S. stocks dropped on Tuesday on Soft Chinese trade numbers and Ukraine concerns

  22. bouraq says:

    Copper’s warning:

    • blackjak100 says:

      No gold charg today bouraq! Still think we get the false breakout to $1360-$1380. Would not be surprised to see $1360+ tomorrow as a third wave of c of y of WXY. Also would not be surprised to see a reversal by early next week.

      • bouraq says:

        No gold today BJ. It hasn’t moved much and it’s still inside the channel. 1360 is entirely possible and 1365 would tell me that I was wrong. Next 2 days should resolve this.

      • blackjak100 says:

        Agreed! If my squiggle count is correct we are just starting 3 of 3 of c of Y of WXY and should be exploding higher very shortly past $1355 to confirm $1360-$1380 as final uptrend target.

      • blackjak100 says:

        and that took a whole 15 min since my post which breeds confidence in the count. However the reason I post this is there’s going to be a great shorting opportunity in gold coming up late this week. Shorting anywhere between $1365-$1380 should be very rewarding. As Bouraq has been spot on with crude and long interest is high, the same thing is going to happen to gold with everyone bullish!

      • RDC says:

        BJ: Nice Call on Gold. When you plan to short? at 1380?

    • robnaardin says:

      Rut has been the best index in this wave up. Only index to hit the upper 20 bb.
      Dayam has completed it’s megaphone way before the spx and is now rolling over.
      Looks like the bear train has left the station.

  23. Lee says:

    Thanks Tony
    Saw a typo on your temp just now as it reads in the lows 70’s , that can’t be right ;>p
    Yo to Ryan P also ,enjoy his posts.

    • tony caldaro says:

      think it hit 75!
      storm coming in, back into the 30’s tomorrow
      but did get to use the chainsaw today

      • Lee says:

        That’s Living !
        Cheers Big T

      • 16golfer says:

        It was 79 here and I used the hedge trimmer on all the boxwoods. Mowed up all the leaves that had gathered. Snow showers predicted for tonight….lol

      • CygnetNoir says:

        I am seeing grass for the first time since January 11th – brownish green swaths of grass and mud winding through three foot piles of frozen cruddy snow. A few golf courses in the area have said that they will re-open driving ranges by 3/17 but no golf until 4/1 at the earliest. As soon as my youngest graduates from high school, I’m moving to Arizona or some such where I can golf year round. So HD – I’ll see ya’ in 2023!

  24. RDC says:

    Thank you, Tony!

  25. bhupal777 says:

    Thanks Tony. I am still routing for minute wave ii correction close to .618x or .50x of minute wave i, which should be b/w 1853 and 1860.

  26. Oddly a b wave?

    That is because we topped at 1884 for Major 3 of Primary 3…. this is the early stages of Major 4, but confirmed for us with a close below 1838 FWIW…

    AT 1875-1884 we have great fibonacci symmetry with prior waves from 1267 Major 2 lows.

    Market tops happen when you see crazy stuff like PLUG, TSLA, MEET, FCEL, BLDP and others popping for no real fundamental reason… insanity at its finest.

    we remain long TZA from 14.57 entry

    Best of luck to all… we will probably raise our TZA stop from 14 to a higher level tomorrow

    Still a few stocks we are long like SZYM up 17% and a few others… can still find stocks, but mind the index for sure

    • Ryan Parker says:

      It no doubt feels like silly season in the market. The most fundamentally absent companies have been incredibly frothy lately. If you look back at the trading history of PLUG alone, it tends to run right near market peaks. Early 2004 (ended a small bubble in microcaps similar to what we are seeing today), late-2007, late-2009 (only time it didn’t mark a top), and early-2011. Market topped on 5/2/11. Now this huge run from $.45 in November to almost $12 today. PLUG had a market cap of $1.2 billion at today’s peak. This technology has been around for 14 years. So now it is all of a sudden viable? Wal-Mart is using it in forklifts. It isn’t going into cars. CPST went wild a few years ago on a Wal-Mart trial but it never amounted to anything. Same story for PLUG now if you ask me.

    • RDC says:

      Who is “We”? Do you have 3X personalities?

  27. tim berglund says:

    Hello Sir;

    Thanks for your spot-on commentary. I was wondering if you’re still bullish on DRYS?

    Thanks, Tim

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