monday update

SHORT TERM: pullback continues, DOW -34

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.9%. European markets opened lower and lost 0.4%. US index futures were lower overnight as well. The market opened four points below Friday’s SPX 1878 close. In the opening minutes the market dipped to SPX 1873, bounced back to 1878, then headed lower. Around 11am the SPX hit 1867, slightly lower than Friday’s 1871. Then the market tried to rally. Heading into the close the SPX hit 1878 then dipped to close at 1877.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.15%, and the NDX/NAZ were mixed. Bonds gained 4 ticks, Crude lost $1.50, Gold added $1, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1869 and 1841 pivots, with resistance at the 1901 and 1962 pivots. Tomorrow: Wholesale inventories at 10am.

The market opened lower today, bounced back to unchanged, then dropped slightly below Friday’s low to SPX 1867. After that the market rallied to SPX 1874/75. But had a difficult time breaking through that level until the last hour of trading. Thus far, the pullback from Friday’s SPX 1884 high has been 17 points. Important pullbacks, during this uptrend, have been between 18 and 34 points, with the less significant ones between 18 and 23 points. So today’s low nearly reached that range. Also, at today’s low the market was quite oversold. We still feel a rally to SPX 1880 is required to get Minute iii underway in earnest. But SPX 1876 may have provided an early indication, and we posted a tentative Minute ii label at today’s low.

Short term support is at the 1869 pivot and SPX 1859, with resistance at SPX 1884 and the 1901 pivot. Short term momentum hit quite oversold then bounced above neutral. The short term OEW charts turned negative in the morning, then ended the day positive with the reversal level now at SPX 1872. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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104 Responses to monday update

  1. H D says:

    SPX is repsecting Tony’s pivots 1869 acting very much like 1841….
    I got pretty bullish today… There’s ur fade.

  2. Most positive comments seen on “last Thursday update” and that was almost top with ALL CHARTS showing reaching 1900+ and that too within few hours. Good work, you guys!!..Unfortunately, I did not open further short position as I have to play within limits irrespective of my confidence…

    I will call those calling SPX 1900s LUCKY if SPX breaks 1884..and take it from me,it will not. Ground reality in Ukraine is lot different and volatile than projected. It is may also result in WAR. Ukraine does not have OIL that America can recover WAR INVESTMENTS (when UN resolution is passed to liberate countries, then cost to “LIBERATE people” is born by country) and IRAQ is paying back cost to liberate by selling oil. On a Macro level the game is up. There will be few tens of points on SPX, here and there but take it from me, MAJOR trend is down.There is one action from someone that can still take SPX to 2000s, but it is now not likely.

    In market, there are times when only technical works, there are times when market simply has bullish BIAS disregarding technical waves and there are also times when market has BEARISH bias disregarding technical waves. It is stupid to keep counting minute, sub-minute..etc, it does not work all the time.

    I am most likely to not cover SHORT (at 1858.8) for quite a long period.

  3. llerias7 says:

    So we still have minute ii making damages…shaking weak hands and so forth…(WS Games that is). Keep looking on the horizon…min iii now…and next month 1940´s…

  4. Lee says:

    If guys were waiting to buy the dip on freddie and fannie, it’s here

    • JK1987 says:

      That’s #6 post.
      An emotional day for you?

    • uncle10 says:

      LOL, I bought at the breakout with a tip from Tboys. I sold and made a good profit and then was kicking myself watching it climb afterwards. Too crazy for me, and I like crazy! hahaha

      • Lee says:

        Nice job uncle !
        Yeah I think Id rather trade NG haha but it was an interesting move both up and down for sure.
        I better shut my yap as I awoke JK😉

      • tommyboys says:

        Good job Unc…not sure I’d be a buyer of this pullback now. It “could” be all for Fannie & Freddie based on today’s release. Although likely to be a long drawn out affair with Berkowitz and a few others fighting it.

    • CygnetNoir says:

      All I know is I bought PLUG at .12 in Feb 2013 and sold it and reversed to short at 11.72 today. I am legend🙂 – CN “Have internet, will travel (at least as far as my bedroom slippers and restraints will allow).”

    • joseph3000 says:

      Looks like is going for a c wave?

  5. CygnetNoir says:

    From time to time, and especially on days like this, some here might benefit from viewing a naked daily bar chart (not a candlestick chart) of the DJ, SP, Naz Bros. – no Bollinger Bands, MACD’s, MA’s, stochastics, RSI, no wave counst and alt counts – just you and price, mano-a-mano.

    • Lee says:

      Thanks C N
      “you ever been in a cockpit before joey”

    • CygnetNoir says:

      And I would also suggest that you paint all the bars the same color – do not do red/green or whatever to distinguish an up from a down day – just black OHLC bars on a white background or white OHLC on a black background. Just to help Re-fresh your view.

      • uncle10 says:

        Thanks CN. on SPX looks to me that we have a lower high and lower lower. Big down alert? eh.

  6. Look MA our TZA position we took last week is working from 14.57! 1884 was the PERFECT Major 3 of Primary 3 high….

  7. Nice (regular) flat correction for minute ii!? With wave a down to yesterday’s low at 1867, then wave b up to 1882, and now wave c down almost complete?! + div on hourly RSI starting to take hold.

  8. H D says:

    This is Tuesday right? TAAG ™

    • H D says:

      no stops in the SNP go untouched….. no 12 green Tuesdays in a row? I am calling BS on this.

  9. radrian6 says:

    Last Friday I posted that the RUT and SPX had closed above their weekly upper Bollinger Bands after an extended rally. Closes over the weekly upper BB are rare — consecutive closes are even more rare and since the RUT and SPX are still close to their upper BBs, you should not expect instant gratification on your index-based “long” positions.

    I posted my warning last Friday because the majority opinion expected the indexes to go screaming higher — I felt this expectation was unrealistic based on the technical conditions. The current pullback may take a while to complete but it should set the stage for a retest of the recent high.

    • amy walter says:

      Thank you for your market view and glad you’re back!
      It’ll be great if you can give us insight on RUT daily like before.
      Thanks again for your thoughtfulness!

      • radrian6 says:

        Thank you Amy. I’m not sure that detailed daily analysis of the RUT is practical but it depends on the way you trade. I do think it’s important to recognize when the indexes are at an extreme and are likely to consolidate or reverse. The indexes tend to alternately expand and contract their ranges. Last Friday, the RUT and SPX hit an important boundary (weekly upper BB) that threatened their range expansion. If you look at a weekly chart of the RUT and overlay Bollinger Bands, you will see that contact with the upper band after an extended rally often results in consolidation or correction. It’s also important to track the swing length between corrections — recently, the RUT has traveled 110 to 120 points before correcting. The most current rally, however, came after an 8% correction so it ran 130 points before encountering significant resistance.

        When my expectation for the market runs counter to Tony’s wave count or to the majority opinion, I tend not to offer it because it often leads to a counterproductive bull-bear debate.

    • chrisk44342 says:

      Yes, except the SPX did not close above the BB.

      • radrian6 says:

        I have last week’s SPX close at 1878.04 with the weekly upper BB close at 1876.64. The Bollinger Bands calculate differently on the various charting platforms so my data may not match yours. However, don’t let the numbers cause you to miss the point.

      • CygnetNoir says:

        Its too late, radrian, he already did (miss the point, that is). Many here at Tony’s miss “the points” all the time ‘casue they are too busy trolling others’s posts for things to bicker about. That’s why I only pick winners from now on🙂

  10. Lee says:

    IMO Keep ur hands on the wheel at 10 o’clock and 12 o’clock and don’t worry about the “gurus” and focus on your trading and enjoy !
    Remember it’s the internet where it’s “wherever it is there I am “

  11. H D says:

    my old man said never take investment advise from someone who has to work for a living or charges for it. If this is some 3 of 3 of 3 of… why can’t the DOW rally HH’s?

    • tommyboys says:

      Mentioned this months ago – agree 1000%.

    • budfox9450 says:

      maybe you need to define, work…
      one persons work, is another;s pleasure.

      • H D says:

        hey bud ture! I think he is referring to professionals, GS types, with a product to sell FWIW. I would add bloggers that charge too.

      • tommyboys says:

        Key here is “HAS TO” work – not wanting to work – two completely different animals. Let’s just leave it as “you had a wise old man.”

  12. This triangle is the answer, it breaks then run with it… everything is pointing to the downside, but hey…

  13. robnaardin says:

    Thanks Tony

    NDX and Naz uptrends are running out of steam the fastest.
    Starting to wonder if a wave 5 started at 1834.

  14. gary61b says:

    I am not at the beach but looking at TNA on my chart and This could have been the b wave of this retrace with a c to complete…. the gaps on the indicies could be targets.

  15. rc1269 says:

    in case anybody’s curious, and apologies if this has recently been mentioned –
    666-1878 is exactly 1.5x the last bull market, and right now this bull mkt is exactly 1x the length of the last one, in time.

    • Got lucky, went long McDonald’s at pre market lows, nice trade today. Strong wave three. Catch a Wave, and you’ll be sitting on top of world!
      Tony analysis, spot on..


  16. H D says:

    change the clocks all u want, the bots now what time it is. :mrgreen:

  17. gary61b says:

    Tony, What are “important pullbacks”?

  18. alexhartley1 says:

    Hi Tony – if we rallied today and attained a new high 1890 – 1900 area could we classify the entire move up a 5 wave minute 1 meaning your current SPX count on the short term chart would be slightly altered. I think more likely minute 2 then happens into the end of March? Thanks, Alex

  19. esvxm says:

    German DAX getting some lift up. Think we might get a close above 1880 in S&P, just a thought..

  20. hucky2 says:

    This Thursdays 4 billion POMO magically happens to coincide with: weekly Jobless claims, Retail sales, Export/Import prices, and Business inventories & FED governor Powell will give Senate testimony!!
    Doesn’t exactly instil confidence does it?
    I have no longs at the moment – waiting for minute w3 kick off confirmation.

  21. Hi Tony

    I see an a-b-c down to minute-a, followed by an a-b-c up to minute-b. It may have a little higher to go.

    Tomorrow, we may drop below today’s low (trigger to short) following an impulsive 5 wave structure down. This will conclude a wave A down. Otherwise, stay neutral.

    That does not mean we can not reverse and head higher – after all, we are short term traders.

    • Lee says:

      Thanks bouraq
      Interesting chart on the spec net position in crude futures, CL gives the best bang for the buck for those wanting to day trade but I am biased.

    • blackjak100 says:

      Thanks bouraq.

      I’ve been short crude for 2 weeks with my last add at $104.50. I completely agree with your crude assessment from an EW perspective as well! Looking for $95-$97 awfully fast!

      Gold on the other hand still has room to run on the upside from an EW perspective. I’m looking for $1360-$1380 to end uptrend. Maybe near top of channel as you have it. It looks like we need a final c wave up to complete a WXY. I’m assuming wave 1 was $1328-$1345 followed by a shallow wave 2 for most of today. Wave 3 right around the corner?

      • bouraq says:

        Thanks BJ. I’m just posting what I’m seeing. Hope gold and crude falls I’m short on both.

      • blackjak100 says:

        Understood! I like your charts and therefore I really look at them when incorporating my EW analysis. After studying it again, I’m thinking we get a false breakout over the green line and test the upper blue channel in the next few days which should coincide with $1375ish. I still maintain this uptrend is clearly corrective since it has a clear b wave triangle making up the W wave. I would then look for a quick decline back below the green line.

    • 777daimon says:

      1960’s are the target for end of March – April.
      2030 (+/- 10 points) is the target for this up wave alone.
      2215 is the target before an intermediate correction.

      • bouraq says:

        I don’t see it that way. Possible but not probable to me.

      • 777daimon says:

        Anything above 1891 in SPX and those scenarios exposed by me are on track and pumping 200% chances !
        If that bull flag on 8H charts (since Feb lows) springs to the upside….you know the rest!🙂

        So anybody thinks that Yellen at her first FED meeting next week will kill this market ?
        Ok…. if the answer it’s “yes” it’s already biased and bearish! ….

    • 777daimon says:

      Hi Bouraq.
      I reviewed the charts one more time and seems like you’re right and my targets are way too crazy, not sustained by technicals.

      Bouraq is right here, people!
      This uptrend might be in danger here.

  22. bhupal777 says:

    Tony, Minute wave ii didn’t even retrace .382x of minute wave i, though it was very close.
    I understand it is not required but I would have been more comfortable in entering my long positions if it retraced little more. I am expecting it would at least touch .5X at 1860 for minute wave ii. In any case as you mentioned many times on this blog “we are still in a bull market”.

    Thanks for the update.

  23. Jennifer says:

    Thanks Tony🙂

    U.S. stocks dipped on soft Chinese data and Ukraine concerns

  24. What would be the target for this MINUTE 3?

  25. RDC says:

    Thanks Tony.
    Gap up tomorrow then move towards 1900+ this week.

  26. lunker1 says:

    Speaking about baseball I’ve got the Red Sox spring training about 4 miles from my house and the Twins about 7 miles the other way, but most important Is that my 8 year old son is playing Little League again. already has 2 triples this year (they should’ve sent him bith times lol). He looks really good catching behind the plate too. Pro style🙂 His grandfather pitched for the Reds back in the day so we’re glad he’s doing well and having fun.

    • tony caldaro says:

      nice Lunk
      the major leagues always needs good catchers
      easiest path to MLB

      • lunker1 says:

        Trust me I thought about that as soon as saw him take his stance but of course I’m his Dad…but then all the coaches were like wow he looks good back there.🙂. He likes being in all the action and wearing the gear. We can always dream can’t we?

        • tony caldaro says:

          Catchers control the game.
          They study the hitters and know what to call and when.
          The key to a pitching staff.
          If they can throw out 50% of base stealers, and hit .280 with some power.
          $15mln a year easy.
          Best to start young, but make sure to take care of those knees.

      • Lee says:

        Hey L1
        Catchers are the meanest sob’s on the team usually ,so like father like son haha
        I was the MVP on my little league team one year for selling the most”chances” what they now call raffle tickets, I can still remember hawking them door to door early on Saturday mornings seeing all my buddies mothers and grandmothers in their night gowns. Ahhh the memories

      • lunker1 says:

        I remember too Lee. Fun times. You should’ve seen all the prizes they gave away at this raffle. Took well over an hour to give it all away. I won a sunburn LOL.

    • Lee says:

      +1 Tony !
      They’re kind of like centers in the NFL but get paid 5x’s as much

      • tony caldaro says:

        Catchers control the game.
        They are involved in every pitch.
        They have to cover the bunt, wild pitch, passed ball, runners trying to advance, they can even pick off runners.
        Yadier Molina is one of the best to ever play the game … the total package.
        Except for the tattoos😉

    • isn’t it awesome to see your kid play (and dream of a bright future?) as a dad!? My oldest is a lefty and loves to play 1st base (made 3 outs last game) and is a good hitter, IMHO. Had a batting average of 0.714 last season (AAs). I am sure that is going down this year since the pitches are much better,😉 Yes, we are proud dads!🙂 I’d love to see him work on his pitches, since lefty pitcher are as far as I understand quite tough for most batters (since most people are right handed)

  27. sneaking in a green ii I see😉

    If that ii turns out to be true than using a standard 2.000x extension for minute v of minor 3 of intermediate iii suggest: 1867 + 2.000x (1883-1834) = 1867 + 2.000x 49 = 1965. That be right around the low-end of the OEW 1974 pivot. Makes sense IMHO.

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