weekend update


The week started with Russia flexing its military muscle in the Ukraine, and the market sold off to SPX 1834 by Monday noon. After the event was temporarily neutralized the market recovered, and made all time new highs every day thereafter. For the week the SPX/DOW were +0.90%, the NDX/NAZ were +0.45, and the DJ World index rose 0.40%. Economic reports for the week finally turned positive, with positive reports outpacing negatives ones 10 to 7. On the uptick: personal income/spending, PCE prices, ISM manufacturing, construction spending, monthly payrolls, the MIS, monetary base, the WLEI, plus weekly jobless claims improved. On the downtick: monthly auto sales, the ADP, ISM services, factory orders, consumer credit, plus the unemployment rate and trade deficit nudged higher. Next week we have Retail sales, Business/Wholesale inventories and the PPI.

LONG TERM: bull market

This liquidity driven Cycle wave [1] bull market continues to exceed expectations. Just as, I would imagine, the liquidity driven 1932-1937 Cycle wave [1] bull market did decades ago. Then, Primary waves I and III were rather simple one year affairs, with an extending Primary V taking three years to unfold. Quite similar to the 2002-2007 bull market. Although the waves in the 2002-2007 bull market were of a lesser Major degree.


This bull market has had a two year Primary I and, currently, a three year Primary III. Primary II, for those that keep count, only lasted five months. Primary I naturally divided into five Major waves, with a subdividing Major wave 1. Primary III is also dividing into five Major waves, but Major waves 1, 3 and 5 are all subdividing. Major waves 1 and 2 completed by mid-2012. Major waves 3 and 4 completed by mid-2013. It would make sense then, to expect Major wave 5 to complete around mid-2014. Especially since the subdividing waves of Major waves 1 and 2, Primary I, also completed in mid-year.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

During this Major wave 5, Intermediate wave one completed in mid-January and Intermediate two in early-February. Intermediate wave three is only a month old and has already exceeded the old all time high by nearly 2%. The initial advance off the Int. two SPX 1738 low was quite strong and very implusive. The market rose to SPX 1848 (110 points) in just two weeks. After that it became quite choppy until this week. As it has risen just 36 points in over two weeks. This choppiness has left a short term pattern that has many potential counts.


During this bull market third wave trends, which this is one, and there have been four, have lasted between 4 and 7 months in duration. This would suggest an Int. wave three high some time by around June, maybe longer. If this one is anything like Int. wave three of Major wave 1 (Nov11 to Mar12), when the SPX rose 263 points. Then we are looking at potentially an Int. iii high near June around SPX 2000. Actually our target for this uptrend is the OEW 1974 pivot, and the pivot after that is 2019. Medium term support is at the 1869 and 1841 pivots, with resistance at the 1901 and 1962 pivots.


Short term support is at the 1869 pivot an SPX 1859, with resistance at SPX 1884 and the 1901 pivot. Short term momentum ended the week just above neutral. The short term OEW charts are positive with the reversal level now SPX 1871.


The uptrend can best be counted as five Minute waves up to complete Minor 1 at SPX 1868. The five Minutes waves are: 1827-1809-1848-1841 (triangle)-1868. Minor wave 2 then completed at SPX 1834 on Monday. From that low the market rallied to SPX 1884 early Friday, completing Minute one. Then pulled back to SPX 1871, also on Friday, possibly completing Minute wave two. As soon as the market rallies above SPX 1880 we will label that low, or the next low, as Minute wave two. Best to your trading!


Asian markets were mostly higher for a net gain of 1.2%.

European markets were mostly lower for a net loss of 0.6%.

The Commodity equity group was also mostly lower for a net loss of 3.3% – mostly Russia.

The DJ World index is uptrending and gained 0.4% on the week.


Bonds entered a downtrend and lost 0.8% on the week.

Crude was quite choppy losing just 0.1% on the week.

Gold continues to have negative divergences, but gained 0.8% on the week.

The USD remains in a downtrend and lost 0.1% on the week.


Tuesday: Wholesale inventories. Wednesday: the Budget deficit. Thursday: weekly Jobless claims, Retail sales, Export/Import prices, and Business inventories. Friday: the PPI and Consumer sentiment. On Thursday FED governor Powell will give Senate testimony. Best to your weekend and week!

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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124 Responses to weekend update

  1. llerias7 says:

    So EW count today: minute 2 of minor 3 of Int III still…right?

  2. H D says:

    Hey Lee, they sure r, Still using this count from Friday http://t.co/hUxtPaySvZ we traded previous 4th and Tony’s 69 pivot. Monday buying opp again?

    • H D says:

      feels crowded, like everyone is long against morn low. let’s test the theory that no stops go untouched in the SP’S

      • Lee says:

        It’s a pretty good theory H D
        I’m pretty sure there are stops under 1266.74 SPX not positive though

  3. Suddenly our TZA position at 14.57 taken last week not looking too stupid. We had 1875-84 as Major 3 of Primary 3 top…. our stop is at 14, its at 15 now

    • Lee says:

      Thanks please keep us updated 3x

      Hey H D
      Ur bots are doing the tango this am

      • CygnetNoir says:

        At least we now know what we are up against …

        And for those OTCBB fans, we have CANV now trading 88’s, down $113 from its $201 all-time high just two weeks ago.

      • Lee says:

        That’s some dirty dancing there C N , aren’t they cute?
        RE: CANV Yeah I scooped some up in the mid teens then added up thru the mid 40’s then got out @ 201.99 on a market order and reversed there and ….hang on a minute my Mom wants me to take out the garbage, I’ll be back ;>P

      • HAHA, seems that you are more obsessed with me than I could ever be with you… then again, all the tennis playing cougars are that way… they dream and live to say something relevant,

        Now, Tony will come in and say, that was too much!

      • You spent your entire weekend, thinking about my trade… That is all folks.

      • We continue to hold TZA as hedge from 14.57. This type of topping pattern looks like the last big one before the plunge to 1738.

        Also, my copper indicator (Solid black line on chart) aint pretty for stocks

        We also have some long positions still as well…

    • 777daimon says:

      watch it out 3x etf!
      a move to 1900’s and more is in cards this week!

  4. You know Tony, I am always a big fan of your elliott wave analysis. Well Can you suggest whether this is an intermediate top in India or not. Will Indian indices run away ahead of the parliament elections?



    • tony caldaro says:

      Been a tough market to figure out.
      Seems it is driven more by foreign investment than domestic.
      Could be the reason for the choppy action the past few years.

  5. mmmiiikkkeee says:

    Please, what is “the MIS” in Tony’s first paragraph up top?

  6. Lee says:

    Happy B Day Chuck Norris

  7. blackjak100 says:

    Very interesting how the US futures market continues to buy everything in sight except maybe crude. Everything down nicely a few hours ago and now everything nearly flat.

  8. ko68 says:

    Thanks Tony
    Whats the downside limit for the current count?

  9. opader says:

    Thx Tony, as always u r totally objective, love it. My thoughts:
    Bulls Need DJI And DJT Confirmation This Week

    • Outstanding Weekend Analysis!
      Most likely will short McDonald’s (if) it opens higher on Monday. Thinking it should test $95.44 again. Just day trade.

    • mmmiiikkkeee says:

      I have looked through your web-site previously and have been impressed with your methods. In this case though, I see nothing there that speaks to your claim that “Bulls Need DJI And DJT Confirmation This Week” This week means by Friay’s close at the latest.

  10. bhupal777 says:

    Even Turkeys fly in a strong wind.

    Look at the strength in Alcoa (AA) chart.


  11. FWIW, our views on Gold

    Bottomed in Dec as we wrote about at Kitco.com and elsewhere. We believe it was a 38% retracement of the entire 1-3 primaries 250-1923 roughly… primary 4 was steep in that is retraced all of Primary 1-3 in the Gold bull. Primary 5 is underway from the truncated 1181 bottom, we are in early stages of Major 1 of Primary 5

    Our objectives on the low end are 2360-2400 by 2016 for Primary 5, and if indeed we get a similar wave to primary 3 we could be in the $3200 ranges in time per ounce US.

    Near term we exited our gold longs at least 10 days ago via the UGLD ETF which we rode for 23-25% gains. We expect consolidation for a bit before we go long again.

    SP 500 btw at crucial 1884 juncture…

  12. Lee says:

    Well good luck to everybody aka I hope I take all your $
    Trading like a Boondock Saint in honor of the southside parade next weekend.
    To all the folks who get fake outraged here , don’t be like Jan

    Ill be lurking and JK u watch urself u nut .

  13. kjb0 says:

    Funny how playing the stock market and playing golf are alike in many ways.

  14. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony

    “The mind that opens to a new idea never returns to its original size.”
    – Albert Einstein –

  15. Thanks for the update tony! Liking the 1974-2019 pivot targets for intermediate iii, which means my projections from 3 weeks ago for an ideal intermediate iii top of 2045ish wasn’t all that bad. 😉 Until proven otherwise (!!) I’ll stick to it for now. Also, my weekly SSTO-indicator that fired a buy February 12th only a few days after the daily SSTOs did, which always is a strong signal (!), remained in “long” 2 weeks later (March 1st) and is of course still “long” by now. Combined with OEW, I’ve learned not to trade against it. And wouldn’t it be fantastic to experience an S&P 500 at 2000 for the first time?!? Quite a milestone Bernanke will have accomplished, and which nobody foresaw in 2009 when it was at 666….

    More importantly: no time for charts etc, ’cause now it’s off to more little league baseball. Yesterday was openings ceremony and games. My oldest playing AAA’s Yankees team. Fantastic. Let’s play ball!!

  16. Kisshu2 says:

    Putin ironically accelerating collapse of old soviet guard; should come to a head like giant boil world policy -contain, squeeze, mop up and heal –

  17. kjb0 says:

    You win some and you lose some. Most lose more than they win.
    It has its ups and downs.
    Your happy one minute and angry the next as your emotions are stretched to the limit.
    You calculate and analyze. Sometimes it works your way, usually it doesn’t.
    As soon as you think you have it figured out, it teaches you another lesson.
    What you did before (History) does not matter.
    Sometimes you play long, and sometimes you play short.
    If you make a bad decision, you will get into trouble.
    If you do not win and perform well, then you are not in the game very long.
    If you think you can ever conquer it, you are badly mistaken.
    But I love golf anyway.

    • budfox9450 says:

      It is a great game. Review, Bagger Vance film.
      One of my favorites….But, golf for me. Is playing
      against my own goals, aka my score. The stock
      market today, is really a piece of cake compared to
      golf….IMO my 3 is in the cup…done

  18. tommyboys says:

    All the fear surrounding Fed buying and bond rates can be put to rest. It has all been done before post WW2. Schwab has a great article with charts on page 11 here pointing out the 18 years it took for rates to rise after the 1941 bottom as well as the securities buying levels back then. All very similar to today. It ain’t different this time. Hope the link works.


    • budfox9450 says:

      Hello…I do not think comparisoms in history
      is quite that simple, or easy. Further, as rough
      as this may sound, I do not think the work ehtic
      or people are at all similar, in the numbers there
      were back then….IMO

      • simpleiam says:

        bud, correct. Not just work ethic, but demographics are completely different, and THE most important aspect, worldwide! Over the next 10 years, more people will be retiring and drawing money from the govt than in all of our history. Most of those retirees do NOT have enough money to actually retire. Growth will slow substantially, even in China; as Europe and other parts of The West are experiencing the same demographics. All of this will mean less spending (on everything, except health care), thus, less revenues, less profits in many sectors… Less of everything. The Fed knows this, expects the slowdown, and will not intervene unless the banks (and only the banks) show some sort of weakness. The Fed will not concern itself with markets going forward.

      • tommyboys says:

        Happy to disagree with both of you. In fact the more friction my beliefs inspire the more confidence I can have they’re right. The Schwab article is not biased with no agenda – it’s simply an observation. If you’d like to put your personal opinions into the mix you’re certainly welcome to but this is how flaws develop in analysis. Article states fact not opinion. Opinions don’t help me make money. All the best with your trades…

      • tommyboys says:

        Its different this time

      • simpleiam says:

        The Schwab article is not biased with no agenda – it’s simply an observation…Article states fact not opinion.”
        “If you’d like to put your personal opinions into the mix you’re certainly welcome ”
        ? Yeah, okay.

      • simpleiam says:

        “tommyboys says:
        March 9, 2014 at 12:51 pm
        Its different this time”


    • 16golfer says:

      Thanks for sharing tommyboys. Interesting to see the comparison.

  19. elmer510 says:

    Thank you for the update, Tony !

    Let’s go for 3 good months ahead. It’s partly up to strongman Putin.

    • blackjak100 says:

      EW wise I think he is correct. I still think we have one more Primary wave down to go which should take us to $1000-$1100. Looking at the weekly chart from the $1900 top, I think we test the top of the downtrend channel which sits around $1450 today. Ideally, I would like to see this current uptrend end very soon around $1360-$1380 followed by a pullback below $1300. This should give us enough juice for the ride to the top of the downtrend channel in the next 2-3 months which should sit around $1410-$1430 at that time.

    • Kevin M says:

      Nice back dated article lol…….Roubini predicted a double dip recession. Look what that got the people following that late coming economist. Global recovery? lol ok

  20. Well here we are again and I see people are now paying homage to the owner of this blog….”St Tony!?” c’mon get real, even if you believe in such things this is far from being Saintly compared to Mother Teresa! Aside from that, Elliot wave has once again proven useless in predicting anything that has happened in the last 2 weeks and (reading the update) has provided even more confusion. And I love the myriad of “Good Luck’s” people post, which really mean, “I hope I’m right and everyone else is wrong, so I take your money”. Always 2 sides to a trade.
    Just to add, you suggest that the Fed is to blame for EW not working. How about it never has, and is about as good as CNBC in telling everyone past news, cause the counts are always adjusted.
    Still the more that use it means more money for the bots and market makers, cause the herd move together.

    • budfox9450 says:

      I think the witer needs to get a life, and move-on.
      St Tony, is merely a high compliment, but you alreadly
      know that. I for one, do not like elliott wave eitther.
      I have my own objective methodolgy, which is much
      less subjective that elliott wave, or OEW. OEW
      does not make recommendations, therefore, OEW
      is a source of market opinion – most, sorta like his
      views, I do…..Bud

    • ISINCODE says:

      MUD, not one person or system is 100% but the collective intellect that this blog has to offer is valuable to most of the adults that follow it. As it’s host we could not ask for a more humble, patient and forgiving person like “St. Tony”. Based on your statement, you must have a better and more accurate method to predict future market movements and I would love to hear more about it! Can you tell me where your blog is?

      • chrisk44342 says:

        MUD, in his own snide way, has made my argument for me. EW is not a tool for predicting anything because no can actually reliably predict anything. I’m laughing to myself here because that statement seems so clear from a common sense standpoint that it should not require explanation. EW is a roadmap, period. It’s an extremely useful one and Tony does a great job with it.

      • simpleiam says:

        chrisk, I agree. Would add that EVERYTHING in nature, including what humans do, and the result(s) of those actions, have patterns. Having a roadmap to past patterns can allow one to search for and apply those pattern expectations to the MOST LIKELY future move(s), for what is hopefully a positive monetary outcome.

      • I’m reminded of Isaav Asimoc’s Foundation series where Seldon predicts everything that happens in society with amazing accuracy for generations into the future until a black swan event turns it all on it’s ear. Someone should have told Seldon “project, monitor, and adjust.” Might have helped those poor Foundation people when they realized the perfect roadmap had changed due to one unpredictable event. Nothing in human nature really changes, even on the other side of the galaxy. :-p

    • robnaardin says:


      Wrong context. I consider Tony a saint because if it was my blog. I’d get annoyed like hell and kick everyone off it.

    • Look we are all entitled to our own opinion . caldaro does a great job but in this market you can make more money not paying attention to counts than if you do. For what it’s worth caldaro has navigated very well even and has been quick to address the several times he was wrong and deserves respect for it

    • -8: none-constructive, no alternatives provided, derogatory, condescending, miss-interpretation of Good Luck, arrogant, none-informative, not positive, etc.

    • Kevin M says:

      I would say that elliot wave can be useful, especially during blowoff tops and very strong down-waves such has 2007-2009 and every correction since that time. However if you are in the middle of those moves it’s completely worthless. It’s like flipping a coin.

      In regards to Tony, he does a great job in keeping objective but changes his tune alot. That in itself can look good later but when a change comes( i.e pushing out the bull market further in time) it can discredit him slightly.

      In conclusion, it’s impossible to call this market 100% of the time. But Tony does do well during the hype moments, which does make him worth reading.

    • Amen, true EW forecasters dont blame news, pomo’s, fed, conspiracies… simply waves and human beings reactions to news. How they feel like interpreting news is what shapes the wave you are in… not the news, not the Fed.

      Back on Feb 9th we projected exactly 1875 for a top with 1884 spillover possible… so dont say that EW does not work, it depends on whose hands it is in my friend. The ability to discern the wave patterns is often lost on 95% of people who attempt to, and our opinion is the reason is they overanalyze every single minute, minor wave along the way. Just focus on the bigger wave pictures weekly charts and fibonacci relationships and keep it simple!

      • I second that “focus on the bigger wave pictures weekly charts and Fibonacci relationships and keep it simple!” I notice when I zoom in on hourly chart often I get lost… daily works good, weekly often even better.

  21. robnaardin says:

    Thanks Saint Tony

    So far this wave since since 1737 is reminding me of this wave in 2010.
    It would have been better if minor 2 dipped below the 34 day ema.


    And you what happens to bad waves and bad nuts…. …they go down the garbage chute.

    • gokalg says:

      Rob minor2 dipped below 34 ema

      • 16golfer says:

        No, it dipped below 13.

      • gokalg says:

        My bad. I was looking at 60 min chart not daily

      • robnaardin says:


        Your right in 2010 I’d guess a minor 2 dipped below the 34 ema.if that’s what you mean.
        The chart is not showing what I mean. I use swings between the upper and lower 20 bb’s and usually a dip below the 34 ema is simular to dip to the lower 20 bb in this case it’s not.

        I’ll explain what I mean a better way: Ever since the Nov/12 low the spx has been doing the 2 step up, I step down wall of worry dance. Now it looks like a rocketship same as in 2010 fueled by short squeezes and margin growth.

  22. RDC says:

    Thanks Tony!

  23. ocaj2000 says:


    I’m new to your site and very impressed. There is one thing confusing me and would appreciate clarification. You currently have a bull market target of 1965-1992 in QTR3/QTR4 of 2014 yet are also calling for a bull market long term. Is the 1965-1992 target this year an intermediate target within the bull market, or, are you expecting a bear market to commence in 2015 ?

    Thanks much.

  24. bouraq says:

    Weekend charts:

    • 777daimon says:

      impressive! wow!

    • You are righ tTEd, we had 2200 plus a LONG time ago… which was kind of scoffed at for sure… but its JUST MATH

      Primary 1 704
      Primary 3 704 x 1.618 added to 1074… this aint rocket science Ted… but at least you put it up there

      This is why I only have us in Major 3 of Primary 3, not major 5…. in fact, Major 5 should be not far off Major 3 in amplitude I think…. so nowhere close to a Primary 3 nor bull market high

      3600 is actually another crazy number I have, but that is for another day

  25. bhupal777 says:

    Tony, Nice observation of Int. iii of Major 1. Also you have been posting OEW pivot points of 1974 and 2019 for a quite while. You have been projecting what you are seeing rather than what you think. Superb job. When it comes to vast market analysis observation in Elliott Wave terms I come to your blog.Thank you for a good weekend update and have a nice weekend.

    Here is my 2 cents regarding recent strength in US Regional banks. Personally I see it is worth watching as there is a good upside potential in these banks.


  26. Do you have a habit of trading? I really hope not and let me tell you why

    • simpleiam says:

      Thank you, art. Very, very good advice, for newbies and us old farts who might forget our Plans from time to time. Good reminder. Simplify!

  27. 777daimon says:

    Thank you Tony for your work, I appreciate it and your determination, also.
    One question about a phaenomenon observed. I don’t have so much experience as you do, so I’m presenting it to you and ask for your opinion on it, if you’re kind:
    – In AAII Report bears are in the all time lows area (at 17% and lowering as per last week/bulls at 47%, the rest – neutral), compared to 1929, 1987 and 2000 moments.
    -During the last week/days the number of comments here (and also on other blogs , followed by me) has consistently decreased.

    Only assuming that those are connected (might not be), what do you think about that.
    Are we living a moment of “retail acceptance” of the new bull market or are we talking about an area where a ”mountain top to be reached” is near (for sure, not yet reached) ?

    Please consider that also on other blogs the comments and no. of participants are below 50% (25-40%) of the average (followed by me during the last 2 years, on a daily basis). Followed all the major blogs tracked by mcverryreport.com.
    So: something is happening but I can’t figured out clearly what.
    Thank you.

    • simpleiam says:

      Not intending to answer for Tony…but, happens each year at SPRING BREAK.

    • tony caldaro says:

      Pay no mind to the weekly AAII report, it’s noise.
      We track the monthly report, and bulls are nowhere near recent bull market highs.
      Speaking of bulls.
      When markets are volatile, and declining, lots of people have lots to say … comments rise.
      When markets are rising, many just watch and have little to say … comments decline.
      Guess you can use the comments are an emotional indicator.

      • 777daimon says:

        Thank you Tony!

      • mjtplayer says:

        Very true, when the market is grinding higher, comments can be 100 – 200. But, when we get a big down day, comments can be 300+

        That’s because volatile markets present more trading opportunities, up and down. Low volatility markets you just sit and wait…

  28. Greg Polites says:

    Hi Tony – thanks for another great weekend update to go with my morning coffee. I’m not totally convinced we’ve finished minute wave 2. So far the retracement is much less than 38% (SP1865) and I would expect a 38% to 61.8% wave 2 window (1865-1853). Additionally several markets I follow are hanging on developing signals. Equities (sell), bonds (yield reversing down), and the VIX about to throw a buy signal – this all early next week. So if this is wave 3 of 3 of 5 of 3 – the uptrend has to start quickly and be very strong on Monday otherwise I think we face a near term retracement to complete minute 2. Charts and details at: http://hgpolites3.wordpress.com/
    Cheers, Greg

  29. Lee says:

    Thanks Tony

    Man, this blog is all bears 😉

    • robnaardin says:

      Skin deep.until it’s time to play for the Chicago Bears.

      Lee, Thanks for the link.

      “Price is the KING but the KING needs the support of the masses to make him a successful ruler” Interesting way of looking at it. What happens when the masses decide to chop off the king’s head?

    • tony caldaro says:

      Must be spring time =)

    • torehund says:

      Thanks for the update Tony.
      Lee….not a cloud as far as eye can see.. and we still have China as a joker. dos mil spx here we come.

  30. Pingback: Risk-Reward Market Report – 2014.10 | The Risk-Reward Report

  31. blackjak100 says:

    Thx Tony! Here’s yet another possibility as I see it…

    It’s interesting to see that 1892 is the 138.2% extension of cycle wave A. If the rise from 1738 is a B wave (1858-1834-1884 so far), then the 138.2% extension of int A is 1894 and C=.5*A. I’ve said for 6+ months if we can close above 1892, I would turn extremely bullish and think S&P 2000 is coming. I still think there is a greater than 50% probability the market makes a turn down in the 1892-1894 as momentum wanes. Historically, big turns happen in March. The cycle wave B top at 1892 looks very unlikely as the current rise from 1738 is not 5 waves up. The Int wave B top looks very likely as a new low below 1738 could be next. A close above 1892 negates these scenarios.

    • budfox9450 says:

      Nice review

    • Thanks BJ!
      Furthermore. Boroden often talks about fiboextensions of the recent decline. 3 important levels are possible turningpoints: Fibo 1,27 1,618 and 2,618.
      The decline from 1851-1738 was 113 Points. This gives us 3 important fibolevels:
      Fibo 1,27 = SPX 1882
      Fibo 1,618 = SPX 1921
      Fibo 2,618 = SPX 2034

      The market have tested the 1822 level 3 times this week, without breakthrough.
      We have a Doji in SPX, negative RSI divergencies and indices above the upper bollingerband in both Daily and weekly charts.

      I agree with you. I do not rule out the B wave scenario just yet.

      Best wishes Sverker

    • tony caldaro says:

      Okay if 1851-1738 is your A, then 1894 is your 1.382 B.
      Thus far the uptrend looks like 5 up, pullback then 1 up.
      So if it fails at/near your level a B wave would fit.

  32. M1 says:

    Thanks, Tony.
    imo, we have a similar situation than last week. We are at a very important long term resistance(NAZ at 4289).
    Now that the NAZ closed above that level for the 2nd straight week it looks like we will have to wait some more to see how this resistance finally is gonna play out.
    Of course I may be wrong and this level could mean nothing. But I would be very surprise.
    I guess the count could be adjusted once again if the market goes south and starts that large correction that I’ve been calling for quite a while (NDX cycle wave 4 dropping +27%)
    Gl. Have a nice weekend

  33. liborval says:

    Thanks Tony, so if you suppose int. iii ends 2000 and major 5 lets say a bit more then the February low 1740 will be the four year presidential low? because PIV could be around 10% so somewhere to 1800?

  34. Thank you for all your hard work and assistance Tony, and for showing us the way to work together as One!

  35. Love my Saturday mornings with Tony! Thanks for your intelligent analysis. 🙂 The remainder of stocks/ETFs purchased on 2/5 (ABT, XLV, XLB, TAN) are looking toppy. Hopefully, they are just consolidating for another move up — will let price dictate the sell/hold. Still holding TNA purchased on 3/3. Still also holding the following shorts: DECK, XLU, CSCO, IBB So, a mixed bag during recent chop city.

    Good luck next week everyone and have a very nice weekend, Tony and blog.

    -OEW Coffee Club Member

  36. tommyboys says:

    Great analysis Tony and happy weekend to all. Looking at your 60 minute and daily SP charts I see a clear inverted HS targeting 1960 conservatively! Thx

  37. rolandu11 says:

    The Crimean crisis has given the bear ways to gain or to close positions at the beginning of this week. Then we have reached new highs, but the candles on Friday (DOW, SPX) look similar to the candles of last week. The technology does look weaker as last week but the financials better. The Crimea may play a role in the next week. If something is happening in the Crimea/Ukraine it could be volatile again. Everything else can be read from my chart.


Comments are closed.