friday update

SHORT TERM: gap up then pullback, DOW +31

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.9%. European markets opened lower and lost 1.4%. US index futures were higher overnight and rose quite a bit after monthly Payrolls were reported at 8:30: +175k v +113k. The Trade deficit was reported slightly larger: -$39.1bn v -$38.7bn. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 1884 and then immediately started to pullback. By 10am it hit SPX 1875, bounced to 1882 just past 10am, then dropped to 1871 by 11:30. A rally attempt took the SPX to 1878 by 12:30, then another pullback followed to 1872 by 2pm. At 3pm Consumer credit was reported lower: $13.7bn v $18.8bn. The market then rallied into to close ending the week at SPX 1878.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.10%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.40%. Bonds lost 15 ticks, Crude gained $1.00, Gold dropped $11, and the USD was higher. Last night the FED reported an increase in the Monetary base: $3.898tn v $3.883tn. Today the WLEI was reported higher: 51.8% v 51.7%, and our MIS was reported higher: 56.9% v 55.6%. Medium term support remains at the 1869 and 1841 pivots, with resistance at the 1901 and 1962 pivots.

The market gapped up at the open on the better than expected Payrolls report. But the SPX 1884 open was immediately sold off to 1871 by 11:30. After that the market tried to work its way higher for the rest of the day. Around 10am we updated the SPX hourly chart to display a Minute wave one high at SPX 1884, and Minute wave two underway. We ended the week awaiting a rally to SPX 1880 to help confirm Minute two ended today.

Short term support remains at the 1869 pivot and SPX 1859, with resistance at the 1901 and 1962 pivots. Short term momentum declined below neutral during the pullback. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the reversal level now SPX 1871. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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17 Responses to friday update

  1. torehund says:

    Happy weekend to all on board. Tonys count to which most agree is making this an autopilot market…good for doing other things simultaneously like gardening, golf or surfing.
    Spring is in the air !

  2. radrian6 says:

    To this point, the leadership in this rally has been coming from the RUT and the NDX. The RUT rallied from 1082.72 to 1212.82 — that’s about 130 points without a sustained correction. SPX rallied from 1737.92 to 1883.57 — that’s about 145 points without a sustained correction. Both the RUT and the SPX closed above their weekly upper Bollinger Bands — these closes are rare and generally suggest a significant top is near. It is certainly possible that the rally will continue but it is unlikely that either the RUT or SPX will continue to close above their weekly upper BBs. For the RUT, the weekly upper band can advance about 12 points per week to accommodate an uptrend while the SPX upper band can advance 10-15 points per week.

    I hesitate to offer an analysis that is not utterly bullish but technical conditions suggest that further gains will be incremental and it is entirely possible for the indices to flatten or pull back.

  3. bhupal777 says:

    Tony, Thanks. Once minute wave ii concludes we will be in ‘minute wave iii of minor wave 3 of Int. wave iii’. I will take that setup any day and in any market. Looking forward to your weekend update. Have a great weekend.

    Financials specifically Regional banks had a great day today in fact last 2 weeks they have been strengthening. Lot of new breakouts and some are bouncing from previous support levels. One caveat is volume lacking. I will post the charts tomorrow.

  4. elmer510 says:

    Besides the confirmed uptrend and IM3 under way, we can also see an inverse head and shoulders pattern at SPX. Shoulders 1850 and head 1737 gives us a target of 1963.
    Possible if Putin stay calm and collected.

  5. llerias7 says:

    So a minute ii is either underway or finished today…only afterwards comes minute 3 of minor 3 of Int.III…uau can`t miss!

  6. 16golfer says:

    Thanks Tony! Don’t forget to “spring forward”.

  7. Ryan Parker says:

    This realty company in Denver mentions cannibis in an 8-k and the stock goes up 10 fold in 3 days.

  8. RDC says:

    Tony, Thanks and have great weekend.

  9. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    Enjoy the Weekend All

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