SHORT TERM: market gaps up, DOW +62
Last night: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/bcreg/20140305a.htm. Overnight the Asian markets gained 1.1%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.3%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported lower: 323k v 348k. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 1879 and rallied to 1882 by 10am. The SPX had closed at 1874 yesterday. At 10am Factory orders were reported lower: -0.7% v -1.5%. The market then pulled back to SPX 1778 by 10:30. After another rally attempt, which topped out at SPX 1882 again around noon, the market pulled back again. At noon: http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/Current/z1.pdf the flow of funds was released. The pullback hit SPX 1875 by 2pm. Another rally attempt ended at 3pm at SPX 1880, then the market pulled back into a 1877 close.
For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.30%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.15%. Bonds lost 10 ticks, Crude added 55 cents, Gold rallied $13, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1869 and 1841 pivots, with resistance at the 1901 and 1962 pivots. Tomorrow: monthly Payrolls at 8:30, then Consumer credit at 3pm.
The market gapped up at the open for the second time this week. By 10am it had hit an all time high at SPX 1882. This market has come quite a long way from the SPX 667 posted five years ago today. Thus far the market has rallied in three waves up from Monday’s SPX 1834 low: 1849-1840-1882. The hourly RSI is not showing any divergences, nor an extreme overbought condition, which suggests the market moves higher. With NFP payrolls tomorrow, and estimates (163k-165k) well below the 195k average, a potentially volatile open may be in store for Friday too.
Short term support is at the 1869 pivot and SPX 1859, with resistance at the 1901 and 1962 pivots. Short term momentum dipped to neutral during today’s small pullback, ended there. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the reversal level now SPX 1868. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bull market