thursday update

SHORT TERM: market gaps up, DOW +62

Last night: Overnight the Asian markets gained 1.1%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.3%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported lower: 323k v 348k. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 1879 and rallied to 1882 by 10am. The SPX had closed at 1874 yesterday. At 10am Factory orders were reported lower: -0.7% v -1.5%. The market then pulled back to SPX 1778 by 10:30. After another rally attempt, which topped out at SPX 1882 again around noon, the market pulled back again. At noon: the flow of funds was released. The pullback hit SPX 1875 by 2pm. Another rally attempt ended at 3pm at SPX 1880, then the market pulled back into a 1877 close.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.30%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.15%. Bonds lost 10 ticks, Crude added 55 cents, Gold rallied $13, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1869 and 1841 pivots, with resistance at the 1901 and 1962 pivots. Tomorrow: monthly Payrolls at 8:30, then Consumer credit at 3pm.

The market gapped up at the open for the second time this week. By 10am it had hit an all time high at SPX 1882. This market has come quite a long way from the SPX 667 posted five years ago today. Thus far the market has rallied in three waves up from Monday’s SPX 1834 low: 1849-1840-1882. The hourly RSI is not showing any divergences, nor an extreme overbought condition, which suggests the market moves higher. With NFP payrolls tomorrow, and estimates (163k-165k) well below the 195k average, a potentially volatile open may be in store for Friday too.

Short term support is at the 1869 pivot and SPX 1859, with resistance at the 1901 and 1962 pivots. Short term momentum dipped to neutral during today’s small pullback, ended there. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the reversal level now SPX 1868. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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119 Responses to thursday update

  1. JK1987 says:

    Like Lee Said
    We are in the mid inning of the bull market.

    • JK1987 says:

      JA Excellent.
      Monday SPX should gap up 50 points with 3 of 3 of 3 up, the most bullish wave.

    • simpleiam says:

      Thanks jj. Do you have an opinion as to whether this w5 might truncate or not? Thus far, I’ve thought not and have been okay in that decision. Right now, so much int’l trash talk on TV, hard to tell. Good Weekend!

      • jobjas says:

        Pure elliotician – dont listen to news and commentaries. Expecting to top around 1890 and then a 200 + point drop. This has been my position for last many months.Tops are difficult to pin point,still learning . For sure expecting something major starting on monday.

    • buddyglove says:

      Jobjas…but… but… Pri iv has started ?…it would be nice if your counts were anything more that just labelling “after” the event .

  2. uncle10 says:

    CPST right in the sweet spot for a this crazy market. Looking good here I think. Should be getting some options soon. Look out when that happens. Not trading advice just what I think.
    Good luck to us all.😉
    Good weekend.

  3. Ryan Parker says:

    If anyone knows of a Chinese alternative energy marijuana stock involved in cloud computing we can all get rich quick…..

    • jparkins10 says:

      Crufts is great, I go every 2nd year, just an amazing event!

      • fionamargaret says:

        Hugs to the Westies.

        Can’t look at Whippets without thinking of John Le Carre.

      • jparkins10 says:

        Fiona, good memory…..westies are the best! but all dogs are great.
        My boys love Crufts on TV as well, they have a LOT to say…LOL

  4. JK1987 says:

    Thanks for the new Minute i label.;

    As Lee Said
    the bears are wearing white.

  5. llerias7 says:

    EW count: minute iv of Int III, today?

  6. fionamargaret says:

    Almost identical to the one provided yesterday.

  7. gary61b says:

    Nice action before the bell, the TF looks to have put in an a and b flat and C1 down with a 50% retrace so far as c2 on 60min. Do we get a c3 to complete this minute 2?, there is some low volume below to the 1193.5 level maybe it will stop there for the continuation up. 🙂

  8. kvilia says:

    Fed is seen raising interest rates earlier based on jobs report. Let’s see what that does to housing and government debt.
    Days to the end of bull market and counting. One should just look at volatility indicators, price/volume ratios, or simply check Tony’s monthly SPX chart, again volume and MACD indicators – the picture worth a thousand words.

    • Fed has said over, and over…. Not for a long time, the talking heads are fishing

      • tony caldaro says:

        The FED tracks the 1YR rate.
        It has been in a trading range 0.08% to 0.32% for three years.
        Currently 0.12%.
        Until it gets over 0.75% there is absolutely no chance of the FED raising rates.

    • robnaardin says:

      Fear the – div in the weekly macd is a lesson that’s hard to forget.
      The drop from 1850 was 113 points. So I’d guess the P4-arty will start before 1963.

  9. mjtplayer says:

    Today feels like a “sell the news” type of day. Gap-up open to new highs, reversal and selling throughout the rest of the day – a “gap and crap” day.

  10. oneandonlyuniverse says:

    Finally a 10-12% correction being served up…1654…..iwm 104

  11. xela0 says:

    EUR close to topping out?

  12. Tony attached chart with the comments.

    Is this reliable or you think wrong ?

    • JK1987 says:

      This is the exact chart you copy from Grand, you black out his site title.
      Also is the same count as PUG.

      Tony has much superior counts than those guys, should not follow and copy them.

  13. Hi Tony

    I see that you think this wave 5 will subdivide higher….

    Is it possible on the daily chart with this count?

    Wave 1 topping 15-07-2013
    Wave 2 bottom 12-08-2013
    Wave 3 top 30-12-2013
    Wave 4 bottom 1737 03-02-2014
    Wave 5 top on this rally here – around 1880-1900?

    Is this a possible count ?

  14. mjtplayer says:

    Pop goes the biotech bubble?

  15. Just a poll who thinks Friday is a big down day?

    • In my opinion the job numbers can come Zero tomorrow , Russia could create havoc and we still hit 1900

    • I had us topping at 1875-1884 and we hit it, so we have TZA going into Friday… just as a hedge because we are long a few stocks doing well. That said, $14 is our stop and we are long around 14.65… play em as I see em… being up 18 out of 20 trading days and hitting my Major 3 of Primary 3 top zone exactly on the 5 fibonacci year anniversary of the March 2009 lows… how can I not take a swing?

      • Sure, makes sense… since “the red in the face, CNBC guy” was teasing about “a rocket” if the job numbers are good, for tomorrow..

      • gary61b says:

        I think that 15.25 is all the up side TZA has in it for now, unless this correction is of a higher degree? GL

    • RDC says:

      This market is going where no market has ever gone before.

      • Everybody is bullish it seems. But only God knows for sure

      • tommyboys says:

        Thats just it Truth everyone is NOT bullish. Even most bulls are super skeptical – including me. Why did Soros double his short position last Q?

      • RDC says:

        Shorts will have their turn sometimes in April, that’s when “Sell in May and Go away” kicks in. So until then Giddy Up.

      • simpleiam says:

        Last post, since I’m just waaaay over limit:
        tboys, although it’s true not everyone is bullish, there’s lots more bulls after this morning’s Jobs Rept.
        GL All & Bye!

      • tommyboys says:

        AAII sentiment report this week is basically neutral – right where you’d want it in the middle to late innings of a bull.

      • simpleiam says:

        Sorry Ladies & Gents, but feel the need to make my point understood:

        tboys: “after this morning’s Jobs Rept.”

        Nevermind Sentiment Rept. before this morning’s Announcement. Please, at least show some sign that you’ve read my post before answering it. Although we don’t agree, I have never attacked you, and have always tried to give your information full consideration.

        Thank you, M
        Simplify (By reading my post before answering it!)

      • tommyboys says:

        Mason – not attacking at all and read your post. Just happen to believe that one data point like today’s jobs number is meaningless in a vacuum. Don’t see any difference in sentiment between now and a couple hours ago…Great weekend and GLTA

      • simpleiam says:

        tboys, okay, that I understand. Just need to make it clear that you read the blog. I always try to do that with you. Thanks and GL to All!

    • Omni group Stock symbol OMC $75
      I wouldn’t hold the stock over night, but its high odds short play. Challenge to trade. Hourly set up 34 trading hour Fridays opening. You must maintain serious tight stop loss. Or this stock can get away from you. Its either going to $78 or its going to $67

      Rising wedge pattern.

    • robnaardin says:

      I vote for irrelevant/d doesn’t matter.

  16. Hi all, remember Hussman’s call of a precrash bubble that everyone was talking about in November? Well so far he seems to have nailed what would happen, but this is still the bubble phase and it is not over yet. Here’s the link:

    Check out the charts. It’s happening. He was only off by a few weeks.

    • You have the buy the dips who show up at 10am every day, then you have the shorts who shorted then have to cover, it’s up up and away. I’m sure one day this will go bad. But no reason to believe its tomorrow or next week or next month. We have the yellen put in effect until its not, tony has us going to 2000, So, I need new ponies, so let’s giddy up. I’m a contractor in az. Business sucks, margins are awful, but thank god we have this stock market, not only domimpay my bills, but just but a few very nice toys

      • simpleiam says:

        “We have the yellen put in effect until its not,”
        That’s right. And it’s NOT right now, only Yellen and the rest of her Hoods won’t say so. Their only obligation is to the banks, and as long as the Unemployment Rate keeps falling, regardless of the reason(s), they’re done helping the markets. We’re on our own, and when everyone finally figures this out… Be aware, but work the upside while you can. Just sayin’. GL All!

      • joseph3000 says:

        I’m in VA. Contractor here too in landscape/hardscape sales. Sales have been up every year here since 2009. Some years lower than other but last year was great. Just fyi. I play the markets too and my 401k kicked ass last year thanks to Tony. Hope this markets can reach 1900. I may scale down soon.

      • simpleiam says:

        My Roth401k and 401k are loving this! Will just keep skimming a little off the table during these rises.

      • joseph3000 says:

        Forgot to say. Our landscape/hardscape division sales have been up. It is our retail nurseries that have sucked. Sales though our retail nurseries have been bad. I think is just a change now that people now shop on line more. When the next recession comes, i think our CEO will have to make the decision of selling some of our retail nurseries (the ones not making good sales). That will be up to him. I see it coming because i read this site : ). He doesn’t know or he may see it coming but the downside is that he doesn’t know Tony : ). I mentioned this site to our CFO (not CEO) but he didn’t pay much attention.

  17. Very interesting not many people see a sell off. Can’t say I blame anybody it’s not longer an up or down market . It’s about. Which stocks will move up higher. So much for george soros.

    • tommyboys says:

      Ya knew you had to be long when they started pumping Soro’s doubled up short hedge two weeks ago. Enjoy your longs and hope they keep parading the bears – worry when they stop.

  18. bhupal777 says:

    Thanks Tony. Tomorrow is testing time for me on my financial positions. XLF and KRE should continue to move higher.

    Today’s BIDU action is in the process of confirming the following EW count?

  19. thanks tony, trade through 1880 occurred today, therefore 1920s most likely next.

  20. Hi,dow has an assimetric Inverted H&S already busted with pullback,,target is around 16800,the bullish flag is still valid,target is 17400,these are the patterns i’m folowing fot ST and MT

  21. budfox9450 says:

    Tony – SBUX is in a W3 up pattern, is that correct. My
    BoYu signal went Bullish with the intraday reversal. Good
    call on the low, btw…Bud

  22. bouraq says:

    Decision is near:
    #spx #djia #gold #audusd #natgas #brent

  23. torehund says:

    Lol, I just looked at ARWR that I mentioned on Tonys blog as bottoming at 1,8 or therearound. Its now 25 USD, so dont ever sell momentum nanocaps whilst they are on the run… I look for other potential baggers after 2,5 x or 5 x(sometimes even sooner), but so many times the waves one think is over are just a tiny bit of a much larger pattern. Micro RNA is getting hot, as I projected it would some 2 years ago, still own my ROSG that started as ARWR did at just 30 mil mcap. Well it isnt a trading advice but this IS the last cheap miRNA play left.
    Thanks Tony for your structual and always scientific approach to EW, in some years when the financial community turns from gut feel into natural- science, your work will appear in their curriculum.

    • simpleiam says:

      tore, you have a gift for the small and micro caps. Don’t ever let anyone tell ya different. I’ve been tracking you much of the time and wish I’d made a number of buys you suggested. Good going!

  24. scottycj1 says:

    TOP today ? 60 months from the lows—– GANN

  25. lunker1 says:

    IWM 4 touches on resistance TL since July 2013.

  26. lunker1 says:

    Thx Tony

    this move in FTEK looks very similar to the pump and dump of late 2010/early 2011 when it jumped from $6 to $11 and then fell below $4. Draw the fibs from $6 to $11 and see how it ping ponged back down from $11. The .236 at $10 became resistance, got a bounce off the .786 at $7, then the .382 became final resistance at $9.22 and then dump.

    Switch to this latest move from $4.50 to $9.50 and again the .236 became resistance at $8.43, again got a bounce off the .786 at $5.61 and now again might rally to the .382 at $7.68 and dump like last time.

    • uncle10 says:

      Hey Lunk, its certainly possible that is how it plays out, however, I don’t think it does this time. Hence I am long.

  27. Having hit our 1875-1884 projected Major 3 highs, unless we have an extension 5 of 5 of 3… then we are short via TZA today at 14.65 with a stop at 14, FWIW… at this extreme with 18 of 20 days in the small caps index up, its where the risk is now in our favor to short/hedge

  28. RDC says:

    Thanks Tony.

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