SHORT TERM: consolidation day, DOW -36
Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.4%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.4%. US index futures were relatively flat overnight. At 8:15 the ADP index was reported lower: 139k v 175k. The market opened two points below yesterday’s SPX 1874 record close. In the first few minutes it dipped to SPX 1871, then began to drift higher. At 10am ISM services were reported lower: 51.6 v 54.0. At 11am the SPX hit a new high at 1877 then began to pullback. http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/beigebook/beigebook201403.htm at 2pm the FED released the Beige book. At 2:30 FED chair Yellen’s speech was released: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/yellen20140305a.htm. At 3pm the SPX hit 1872, then bounced to close at 1874.
For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.10%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.15%. Bonds gained 2 ticks, Crude dropped $2.30, Gold added $2, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1869 and 1841 pivots, with resistance at the 1901 and 1962 pivots. Tomorrow: weekly Jobless claims at 8:30, then Factory orders at 10am.
After yesterday’s record breaking rally the market took pause today, and consolidated above the OEW 1869 pivot. Keeping with yesterday’s note, we removed the ‘a’ portion of the green ‘a2’ we had posted at the recent SPX 1834 low. Today’s high SPX 1877 cleared the 1869 pivot range, although the market immediately pulled back into it. Nevertheless, it does look like Minor 1 topped at SPX 1868 and Minor 2 bottomed at SPX 1834. Minor 3 should be still underway from that low.
Short term support is at the 1869 pivot and SPX 1859, with resistance at the 1901 and 1962 pivots. Short term momentum dipped below overbought during the day. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the reversal level now SPX 1863. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bull market