tuesday update

SHORT TERM: gap up and go day, DOW +228

Overnight the Russian-Ukraine situation was defused somewhat and stock markets rallied. The Asian markets gained 1.2%. Europe opened higher and gained 2.2%. US index futures were up 20 points prior to the open, and the market gapped up to SPX 1863 to start the day. The SPX had closed at 1846 yesterday. The rally continued, with just one 3 point pullback, until just before 2pm when the SPX hit 1874. After a pullback to SPX 1869 just past 2pm, the market rallied to 1876 by 3:30 then dipped to an 1874 close.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +1.45%, and the NDX/NAZ were +1.60%. Bonds lost 22 ticks, Crude dropped $1.65, Gold slid $16, and the USD was higher. Medium term support rises to the 1869 and 1841 pivots, with resistance at the 1901 and 1962 pivots. Tomorrow: the ADP at 8:15, ISM services at 10am, then the FED’s beige book at 2pm.

Yesterday the market hit SPX 1834 around noon, when an erroneous Russia-Ukraine military “ultimatum” report was released. When the report was found to be false the market rallied to SPX 1849 by 3pm, pulled back to 1840 by 3:30, and then ended the day at 1846. Overnight President Putin defused the Russia-Ukraine situation, and markets rallied. At that low, as noted yesterday in the DOW count, the market was sufficiently oversold for a potential Minor wave 2 bottom.

Today’s rally exceeded the previous uptrend high at SPX 1868 before 10am, suggesting Minor wave 3 was underway. The 1869 pivot range (1862-1876) should be cleared next, if this is indeed Minor wave 3. This market has been quite choppy for more than a week, but it is a bull market and the trend is up. Short term support rises to the 1869 pivot and SPX 1859, with resistance at the 1901 and 1962 pivots. Short term momentum is currently quite overbought. The short term OEW charts turned positive, with the reversal level now SPX 1857. Best to your trading in this volatile market!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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57 Responses to tuesday update

  1. DOW says higher, SP says lower… we’ll find out who is leading whom

  2. 1884 is a PERFECT 5 of 5 of Major 3 top folks… we are long TZA with stop at 14

  3. H D says:

    Todays pattern

  4. If I am lucky enough, then my short position should break even today itseld….next one hour very crucial for the day…In a span of seconds, SPX may sink 10 points, if it does not happen in an hour, then does not happen for the day…closing should be about 1867-69 today DYODD

  5. magnus1234 says:

    It’s not about being right but getting the Dolla. Act on the moves. The rest is noice.

  6. blackjak100 says:

    Crude is a big short IMO. The decline from $112-$91 took a fib 13 weeks and looks impulsive. The retrace took a fib 13 weeks and put in a perfect expanded flat where C = 1.618*A. A third wave down could just be starting and it looks like we will put in a bearish engulfing on the weekly this week.

    Just my observations!

  7. Nice/healthy inside day, IMHO. Getting deja vu of the first week of January 2013 all over again… Hard to not make money in this market.

  8. rc1269 says:

    looks like a terminal move (intraday)

  9. Move as predicted..If today’s high is not broken by wide margin (7 points) in next five days, then as I said yesterday, top for this move is in, we will easily break 1738; like knife in a butter..DYODD.There is only one last indicator, that is not behaving like top is in; but at times, one-two indicator can fail..

  10. JK1987 says:

    Label a of 2 removed.
    Looking for 3 of 3 of 3 up?

  11. rc1269 says:

    been lots of selling the rip in credit yesterday and today, fwiw. could be the whole ‘nothing has actually changed’ since monday bit, but not quite sure…

  12. jobjas says:

    Multiple confluence of fib ratios and trend lines at 1882

    • Amos says:
      October 19, 2009 at 4:01 am
      Well. Ailanjian Cycles point to strong upday. With Apple starting off the new week with its Earnings results. Like I stated in the past, Indicators are not working…. The longer term trend is up….. Buy the pullbacks… Apple been climbing from $85 levels… The amount of Capital on the sidelines is huge… and Federal Reserve can and will Print up more If they need to. Interest rates are low…… Do we need to say anymore? UP UP and UP is the trend…

      Tony’s, dedication, beyond amazing!

      Shorted, McDonald’s shares at the opening, twice, both positions worked out.

      Tonys, OEW analysis is spot on in my opinion. Living in North Las Vegas for the past five years now, can’t beat Vegas, has at least ten, In n Outs burgers.

  13. perversionofthemean says:

    Hi Tony, Thanks for the updates. Hoping that “2” is in. I have a few questions: Our last P III was in the 80’s, right? How is it that Major 5 then lasted 13 years, and yet now we’re thinking in terms of months? Also, how different are the P III’s of the Depression era, the 80’s, and now? Should duration/magnitude be related? Last, is it common to have island reversals as a corrective A-B, with a C to follow? Thanks!

    • tony caldaro says:

      Everything is relative.
      During Cycle [1] 1932-1937 PRI I and III were only one year, and PRI V was three years.
      During Cycle [3] 1942-1973, PRI III was 17 years, with four bear markets along the way.
      During Cycle [5] 1974-2007, PRI III was 18 years, with two bear markets along the way.
      Notice island reversals, but really do not pay much attention to them in relation to waves.

  14. pcskier says:

    Happy Fat Tuesday!!!

  15. bhupal777 says:

    Tony, Still on board with your bullish count. For a while I am out of Regional banks. But it looks the correction has ended in financials. I am going to add few strong regional names in coming weeks on minor pullbacks. Thanks for the update.

  16. trade through SPX 1880 suggest SPX 1920s are next based on the good ‘ol 80/20 rule. Just keeping it simple. Also, as stated before, seeing many stocks that need several more up trends before topping out (either P-V or P-I tops). Since it’s a market of stocks the indices can thus only follow.

  17. jeffbalin says:

    Tony, I’m the black sheep of the family so what do I know. But this looks to me like wave 5 and a potential end to Minor 1. This, would make a lot of things make sense especially the neg div everywhere and the fact that technicals didn’t really confirm a minor 2. Minor 2 has yet to begin, but could begin soon barring an extension. Do I need new glasses? We are in wave 5 of minor 1, minor 2 coming up

  18. bouraq says:

    Gaps filled and then some:

  19. Jennifer says:

    Thx Tony!

    U.S. stocks closed high as Ukraine-Russia concerns ease

  20. budfox9450 says:

    Technicals look interesting. (1) OEW’s NY A/D line
    is making new high, but not being confirmed. (2)
    OEW NDX 60 min, suggest and island formation
    potential. (3) SP500 60min also displaying a strong
    neg ‘D pattern. I have 1884-1894 as a potential high.
    But – the OEW count would suggest much higher levels.
    Well above 1900??? P3, “not anytime soon”…no
    doubt. (4) DJIA is within 200 points of a new high,
    but – hereto neg ‘D is very visible. And, why is there
    not a chart of CANN, up 10% today….

    • CygnetNoir says:

      Why no chart of CANN because Tony runs a responsible blog. There is no chart of CANN for the same reason there is no chart of ANSU (up 720% today) – they are both low float stocks susceptible to and prone to manipulation. Did you trade CANN today Bud? Did you like the way all market makers abandoned the thing from 12:21 to 12:31 EST – no bids or offers – no market. This is not an investment vehicle – this is a pure gamble if held overnight. As for day trading it, this should only be traded by day traders who are experienced with the OTC/Pink/Grey market and know how to use level 2 to judge what is going to happen next. Every time you pump this thing you ought have the good will toward others to mention that this is a highly illiquid stock prone to manipulation – not to mention the possibility of an SEC trading halt. It is a $40 stock now, so what happens to the poor guy or gal who buys 100 shares before a halt and when it re-opens two weeks later they find their $4000 is now only worth $4?

      • budfox9450 says:

        CN – you give me to much credit. I couldn’t
        even a bicycle tire, much less a stock. As for
        the risk – you betcha, a lot of it. Yet, traders dable
        in penny stocks all the time. As for no chart –
        that was my effort at humor. Yet, Tony’s stock
        selections, are his alone. Mine are different to
        be sure. CN, thanks for the come back. I know
        risk, and this market is full of it, risk that is.
        That’s all….

    • gtoptions says:

      Nice work Bud, hope you took profits on CANN.
      Technical Sell signals ~ Hourly -/div MACD & RSI. Daily -/div RSI & CCI.
      Don’t get greedy. GL

  21. As much as I respect all. This is not a market where anything matters. Not the economy , not political risk, not technicals. It’s just up up and away. Forget the rest it means little

  22. RDC says:

    Thanks Tony!
    (I think soon we will see 1900+ then pullback around next FOMC meeting).

  23. oneandonlyuniverse says:

    The last time the Russell Index rose by +3% (and to a new 52 week high) was March 1, 2000.

      • oneandonlyuniverse says:

        Jason Goepfert ‏@sentimentrader 2h
        Since its 1979 inception, the small-cap Russell 2000 has been +3% to a 52-week high only 1 other time, Feb 29, 2000. $RUT $IWM

        Is dougie ok? he must be , he doesn’t use real money either

  24. torehund says:

    What a day ! And happy moments in ROSG, hope some of you bought some.
    Waves starting to emerge in Barra Mexico, so I let my investments ride the super season unsupervised, mostly. Greetings from Mexico, enjoy spring.

    • torehund says:

      ..guess Putin is into investments too, and that he and Obama are buddies when no one sees, its a theater and money always has common interests.

  25. Hi Tony

    I continue to look at the recent uptrend that started in the beginning of February as a single wave structure. Yesterday’s low is labeled as minute iv and effective today we are in minute v territory which may end any time. I make this call based on the hourly SPX MACD chart.

    On the intraday charts, I see 5 ways up from yesterday’s low, which needs to close below 1834 to confirm that it has ended. If it does, we go for 1800’s.

  26. mharrison60 says:

    Tony, could this be the start of a blow off top with final P3 waves completing at a fast pace now instead of over months? Seems that the market is very much in mania mode.

    • tony caldaro says:

      Market has been pretty much in mania mode since it crossed 1576.
      Does not look like PRI III any time soon.

      • nothing wrong with mania mode, IMHO, as long as you know it’s mania mode, are on the rightside of the mania, and as long as you get out before the mania party is over 😉 Luckily OEW and this site provide us all that!

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