monday update

SHORT TERM: another volatile day, DOW -154

Overnight the SPX futures gapped down 12 points at the open as a result of the military activities in the Ukraine. Asian markets lost 1.4%. European markets opened lower and lost 2.5%. At 8:30 Personal income (+0.3% v 0.0%) and spending (+0.4% v +0.4%) were reported higher, and PCE prices were reported higher: +0.1% v +0.1%. The market gapped down at the open to SPX 1844, then bounced to 1850 by 10am. The SPX had closed at 1859 on Friday. At 10am ISM manufacturing was reported higher (53.2 v 51.3), Construction spending was reported higher (+0.1% v +0.1%), but monthly Auto sales were reported lower. The market then resumed its decline hitting SPX 1842 by 10:30. After a bounce to SPX 1847 by 11am, the market dropped to 1834 just past noon. Then it had its best rally of the day, rising to SPX 1949 just before 3pm. After another pullback, this time to SPX 1840 by 3:30, the market bounced into a 1846 close.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.85%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.75%. Bonds gained 16 ticks, Crude rallied $1.95, Gold rose $29, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1841 and 1828 pivots, with resistance at the 1869 and 1901 pivots. Tomorrow: FED governor Powell gives Senate testimony at 10am.

Futures gapped down at the open last night and continued lower until the cash market gapped down at the open. Then after a bounce the SPX dropped to 1834, right at the low end of the OEW 1841 pivot. During today’s decline the nested 1-2-1-2 scenario was eliminated leaving us with the irregular Minor 2 scenario posted on the DOW charts. Today we uncovered another potential short term count: 1827-1809-1848-1841-1868. We have posted this count on the DOW charts and updated the SPX charts to the irregular Minor 2. You will note, we counted all the choppy activity between SPX 1848 on Feb 19th and SPX 1841 on Feb 26th as a 4th wave triangle. Under both current scenarios the market should drop back to around 1825 (1828 pivot range). But under the triangle scenario today’s low would have been sufficiently oversold for the end to Minor wave 2. Last week’s choppy activity created just too many potential counts. Take your pick.

Short term support is at the 1841 and 1828 pivots, with resistance at  SPX 1851 and SPX 1859. Short term momentum dropped to quite oversold during the decline, then bounced to around neutral. The short term OEW charts turned negative at the open, and ended that way with the reversal level now SPX 1850. Best to your trading the Ukrainian situation.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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107 Responses to monday update

  1. vorfahrt says:

    Anyone else thinking this could be it for gold? Bear market rally over? -Thanks!

    • blackjak100 says:

      From an EW perspective…yes or will be soon. I’ve been saying this for awhile and obviously been wrong since $1330. However, the advance from $1182 is clearly 3 waves. There is a b wave triangle in the middle that played out for several days around $1250-$1270. Triangles can’t be second waves so we must be finishing up on an ABC. The problem is are we going to see a thrust up towards $1380 first where C = 1.618*A. We really won’t get confirmation until it breaks down out of the daily channel which sits around $1310 today and is rising about $2/day.

    • RDC says:

      I would go long gold b/w 1300-1310, I am short since yesterday. Long term gold 1400+.

  2. lunker1 says:

    SPX has complete ABCD
    A starts at 1859
    D ended at today’s high

    next stop for E???
    1874+ breakout?
    1854 HWB
    1849 .618
    1830 bottom of pattern

  3. Within a few points of our 1875 5 of 5 of Major 3 target we put out about a month ago folks. We will see what happens, but if 5 is equal to 1, maybe a stretch to 1884… but its getting close to reversals into MAJOR 4 time
    Here is our current updated view, and below that the original projection

    and original projection for 5 of 5 chart

    Hope that is of help…

  4. simpleiam says:

    “simpleiam says:

    March 3, 2014 at 9:01 am

    I think Russian troops are just going to sit there for a while. Be seen. Unless non-Russians decide to go at it with Molotov cocktails, etc., Russians not likely to do anything at all. Seems indices already trying to adjust. Have a hunch that volatility will drop pretty hard should this be the case…. Just sayin’. GL and Bye!


    I bought into XIV yesterday afternoon. SPX barely registered a 20-25 point loss for a very short time, and given a whole host of reasons, including but not limited to, 1st week of a month, bargain hunters ready to snap up stocks that pullback, IT’S A BULL MKT, etc!

    Okay, since someone else posted a “Newbie Lesson” below, here’s mine: DON’T set up a short in a Bull market like this, until you have at least 3 years experience behind you! That’s right, DON’T, as in, NO! You do the math, but do you know that you’ll lose less money and make more profit just leaving the short side alone, completely, during a Bull Mkt? Resist the temptation to make these sorts of trades until you get a lot more experience behind you. Even the most experienced traders hurt themselves going short on a wave count, or speculating a mkt top. I know it’s difficult, but just let the sucker fall and wait for an upside setup. You are not obligated to play every market move!

    Just in case you can’t resist, and the trade goes against you, do what jedi says, DROP IT like a hot potato!


  5. Not too many positive comment on this and some other free boards. Therefore, not looking good for my short at 1858.8..Pl dont blame me, I was sleeping when my trade was executed. Fortunately, it looks that yesterday, no one shorted stocks (due to this Ukraine) else would have seen sudden jump at open today.

    Some guys put target of 1900 above but no charts, I need to see STONG tech chart(s) showing target of 1900, then only can open further short. Till the time, BUY (short) and HOLD (hopefully will not end with SELL and FOLD)

    There is small hope that tomorrow top will be in at 1876-8 SPX. If tomorrow’s high is not broken for another 5 trading days, then irrespective of utterances of Granny Yellen (FOMC meeting 18/19Mar), market dives.

    PS: Market will not dive today.


  6. gtoptions says:

    SPY ~ Weekly MACD nearing bullish cross.
    GL Everyone & Breath😉

  7. hucky2 says:

    R we expecting SPX to close below 1865 – or near the high?

  8. elmer510 says:

    This has to be IM 3 on the rise, quite obvious to me. So “long ” is the right position

  9. cicelyalaska says:

    Short squeezes galore

  10. JK1987 says:

    Right here, Short SPX 1871.5
    Stop 1886.
    2b with negative divergence.

    • Kisshu2 says:

      smelled the long side yesterday afternoon with un unanimously condemning Putins aggression- was thinking next short might be upper trendline resitance from whipsaw pattern think that might be dow 16450 ish??

      • CygnetNoir says:

        16450’s is the level I’m watching for on the DOW (see 1/22 high), and 1877-1881 SP-500 based on extent of Jan/Feb decline and yesterday’s price action. Not shorting levels, but levels that will cause me to pay more attention to whaat other traders are doing.

      • JK1987 says:

        Can not even overcome 16398.95 of Friday high.
        Guess that’s why Tony keep the 2/a (2/b) labels, and looking for 2/c down

  11. H D says:

    I’m not sure how everyone is so calm. I had to walk away for hours to regroup and had thoughts of throwing myself into traffic numerous times. Total BS move, both directions.
    Anyways, I need a refresher- Tony or anyone. Wave 4 triangles- wave A can overlap(go into Wave 1 price?) And we measure Wave 5 from wave E termination?
    Either way I need to let it develop as I don’t see the pattern and the bots r on my $h* list.

    • tony caldaro says:

      Wave 4 triangles- wave A can overlap(go into Wave 1 price?) And we measure Wave 5 from wave E termination
      Normally they are not this strange looking, but wave E terminates wave 4.

    • uncle10 says:

      LOL. Not everyone is calm…. I closed everything. Put all my money in 3 stocks and taking a break for a while. I wouldn’t call that calm….😉

      • oneandonlyuniverse says:

        Put on first market shorts today since i got short in mid july(stopped out early sept) I see the spx going back to 1654 then we have a ridiculous ramp up. i have no longs. good luck

      • uncle10 says:

        Hey One. Good luck to you too. Hopefully we can both make money with our trades.

  12. xela0 says:

    Gonna be interesting if they sell into the close again.

  13. uncle10 says:

    Up nice on my short– take nothing off the table—then end up losing money on the trade! dumb…
    I am all in! Putting in three stocks: CPST, TRQ, and FTEK. See y’all in a month or so. gl to us all.

  14. JK1987 says:

    Tony Excellent call on the minor 2 bottom.
    With new record high, should the 2a label just be “2”?

    LOL, this rally is w/o me, staying sideline.
    Yesterday I were doubling down on long positions, some called the action was “Not smart”, “downright foolish”.
    Pug Sh*it changed to P4 with 1612, terrible foolish mistake.

    • llerias7 says:

      JK, also follow PUG on stockcharts page for a while…THE P4 ONLY BEGINS AFTER the top of P3 around 1950 minus/plus 10 pts!! See that chart better, in green appears P3=1.23P1 i.e. 1941. However possibility of higher targets are possible!!
      Insane numbers, I know but is what it is! (still pumping billions on the system and “They” know WHEN to use it and HOW to use it!)

    • bhtrade says:

      Perhaps more foolish than doubling down on a day-trade long – using a long-term investor’s view for justification – was getting out at net break-even shortly after?

  15. llerias7 says:

    Sounds like the Minor 3 of Int III to me!…Will finish well above 1920´s…

  16. joseph3000 says:

    What do you all think about JCP? Primary C is in. It is up around 30% in 2 weeks. I was about to buy JCP before this rallying.

    Tony, did JCP finish a Cycle wave A?

    • Hi Joseph, forgive me for jumping in but I think JCP has bottomed and will continue to rally until the next earnings info is released. First target looks like about $10. Best wishes!

      • joseph3000 says:

        Thanks guys. Looks like a pretty good long from here. If the target is $10 then that could be a top for some wave 3. Haven’t done the homework yet.

    • mjtplayer says:

      JCP resistance at $10 and has a shot of reaching $12.50. Longer-term, the company will go bankrupt IMO, so be careful. SHLD is another short-squeeze play, upside to $57 – $60. Same story in the long-run, on the path to BK, but a couple years behind JCP.

      In the years ahead, these companies will go BK – IMO. So, understand what you’re buying and why your buying it. The walking dead:

      – JCP, SHLD, RSH, BKS

      These are all companies that are burning cash at an alarming rate and losing a ton of money; very deep in the red. Remember, this is supposed to be an economic “recovery”. If these companies lose money hand over fist in this environment, and with record/near record low interest rates to help finance their debt, just imagine how they’re perform in the next economic downturn/recession.

      • joseph3000 says:

        I can see what you saying. Thanks. You are right. If they are not doing well now, how can they do better in the next recession. But, maybe they just top in a primary wave 1? JCP volume is really high in the last several months. And Tony just called a wave primary C bottom. I guess medium term is probably a better option. Anyway, i’m tempting to buy but it had rallied around 50% already in a few weeks. I may wait for a drop first.

  17. rc1269 says:

    Putin occupies Crimea – stocks drop 0.75%
    Putin says no immediate need to invade Ukraine, still occupies Crimea – stocks up 1%

    if that’s not a bull market then i don’t know what is! gotta almost feel a little bit bad for the shorts here. guys just can’t catch a break

  18. Ok so now Putin is denying there were ever Russian forces in Crimea at all? LMAO!!!! Oh my gosh this guy really is living in some cold war fantasy world. Those Russian troop transports and helicopters? Never happened. All disinformation. Wow! Cold war is over Vlad.

  19. 777daimon says:

    If someone observed that sudden spike in SPX 500 futures on a russian boots retreat from “the military exercise” it’s the complete proof of market manipulation using algo-bots.
    We have 2 different facts:
    a. Invasion of Ukraine by russian troops.
    b. A russian militarry exercise executed ON RUSSIAN SOIL in the central and western part of Russia.
    On the news-wires (agencies) the russians announced that :

    So news that caused that crazy spike at the end of asian session reffers to B), not to A) !!!! :))))))))))))))))))
    This is a fully shortable spike and the complete proof of how dumb algo-bots are, processing information without making distinction between the facts!!! :)))

    • alexhartley1 says:

      It’s been up there a long time for a spike. Seems to me with the turn date being 3-4th that we’re spiking upwards in a 3rd wave and yesterday was the bottom.

      • 777daimon says:

        I’ll completely stop trading this market.
        It’s not our fathers and grand-father’s market!
        It’s an IT-based and a 200% rigged market!
        It’s not the market based of equal and free access at information it used to be!
        Having money in this market is completely dangerous!
        They even stopped trading the real news, now they launch fake and distorted news reports and move the market with bots using significant amounts of money!

        This is not a game with the same pack of rules for everybody!

        Ok, nice talking with you, this will be my last post here!
        Tony, you are doing a great job and you’re a great guy, keep it that way!
        GL to everybody here!

      • alexhartley1 says:

        To be fair to you Daimon you’ve been bullish most of the time right and therefore correct? I have us up into end of OPEX week March. Cheers

      • 777daimon says:

        yes Alex, true.
        but I unloaded at 1865 and had the intention to watch for this market to reenter 9short or long according to it’s evolution).
        The facts that thrilled me are:
        1. I watched live and investigated the sources of this ramp = they are fake.
        2. I’ve understood that this market is a fully rigged game if key technical levels can be reached and held on fake interpreted news.

        it’s not about my views about this market , it’s about what I’ve observed.
        And what I have observed makes me wanna take my money and run.
        Because I don’t feel safe cause this is a game with multiple layers of rules, not the same benchmark of rules for all.
        So, took my money and that it. Out of the stock market.
        It doesn’t matter if I’ve had a bullish or bearish bias, it’s what I have observed.

      • 777daimon says:

        … and now USA futures are ramped by Putin news conference? BY PUTIN ??!?!?!?!?!?!!? .. totally speechless …..

      • simpleiam says:

        Oh wa, Wa, WAAAA!!! 777, where did you ever get the idea that ‘you father’s mkt’ was ‘fair’, etc. You’re living in a good-old-days dream world. The stock has always been skewed toward the Big Guys. Grow up, learn to invest. If you don’t like to trade then don’t. You’ll never increase your savings in CD’s, or any other flat-rates right now. Learn to follow the Big Guys.

  20. simpleiam says:

    Meant to put this up for those early risers. Last post. Bye!

    simpleiam says:
    March 4, 2014 at 1:16 am

    Huck, you still there?

    About an hour ago, Putin ordered some troops back to Western Russia for war games then, back to barracks. Only problem is that the troops in question weren’t stationed in Crimea. But no matter, stocks liked it; but there’s something else. EU did quick inventory of petrol stockpiles and found they had quite a bit more than they first thought – 45 days. Guess it gives EU more time to respond, if they wish to do so… IMO, I don’t think they’ll do a thing. Also, a 3rd tidbit. Obama evidently had a face-to-face meeting with Netanyahu this afternoon (not clear if BO went to Israel, or reverse). Said that he thought Israel was doing their part (in the peace process), while The PA was not doing their part. Quite unexpected! Simplify!

    • mmmiiikkkeee says:

      unexpected and not even true

    • simpleiam says:

      All I know is that 1am this morning, Futures jumped on this ‘false’ news; true or not, I don’t care. Keeps it simple!

      • mmmiiikkkeee says:

        I meant the part about Obama. It was Netanyahu who said Israel was doing its part, the PA was not. That was the unexpected part in your writing; you wrote Obama said it. That would be not unexpected but unbelievable. You have the wrong one of the 2 “gentleman”.

      • simpleiam says:

        Ok. It was 1am or later (earlier?) and I was catching up on some things. Thanks for keeping it straight, mike.

        Over limit. Gotta go.


  21. My SPX limit order was sold short at 1858.8, This may turn out to be bad decision (to put limit order to sell at 1858.8 and then sleep, as you get some surprises when you wake up..)..

  22. lunker1 says:

    VIX gapped above 20MA (BB mid band) and then found support at it.

  23. bhupal777 says:

    Tony, Thanks for the update and giving us more insight related to triangle 4th wave. In all of your possible counts upside possibilities outweigh the down side risks. So I am not short yet. Not even a single position I got stopped out today. In fact there are couple of strong stocks posted green bars today (ZNGA, VMC) in my portfolio. Even if it is starting of a larger correction then I might get stopped out then I will look for trading short side. Other wise it is too early to jump on short selling. Thanks again.

    • same here, I don;t have one short or one inverse ETF and still managed to get a pretty decent green day in my portfolio… many tickers look like to go through a nice pullback before the next run up.

  24. UKraine is just the excuse for Major 4 to get going, not yet officially… but if we crack 1823 then be prepared for Major 3 top from 1867 (600 points) to begin the 23-38% fib correction

  25. hi,Tony,i’ve been looking at your count to WTIC where you marked a green B wave,but looks like it formed a triangle after you marked intermediate A,could be this triangle an intermediate B wave?thanks

  26. Kudos to Caldaro and all you people trying to keep a count on this market. I mean really different game now.

  27. Too early to tell for medium-term direction:
    On the hourly it looks short term bearish
    On the daily, still looks bullish
    I am looking at 1826: Go below, head for 1800 and then 1740. Stay above, make a new all time high

    • My short-term indicators flashed a “sell” today and buy SDS. Let’s see if tomorrow is a follow-through day or not. Stepped in SDS with 1/2 position — holding “short” 3 positions purchased on 2/28. Getting stopped out of more of my 2/5 purchases — only 3 long positions left out of 7. Good luck all.

      THANKS, TONY!!

      • UPDATE (good detail for newbies, especially): Sold SDS in the PRE-MARKET and bought TNA. Here is the learning: When a double or triple (especially) ETF turns against you, you MUST sell FAST as they decay FAST. So, from experience, I know to dump in the pre-market on an big up/down day (depending on my position) to reduce losses. I took only a 1.92% loss and then bought TNA — got all my money back and then some. Lesson: Do NOT hold on to a losing double/triple — sell FAST and go the other way. Nimble is the name of the game.

  28. RDC says:

    Thanks Tony. You said “Gold rose $296”, I just wish it did rise that much🙂

  29. Hi Tony, I think the Dow count is right. It just feels more intuitively correct to me at the moment; more likely to be correct. I see today’s low as the bottom of minute a and possibly b is already in as well. Lots of buying already happening out there in individual stocks, particularly small caps, which makes me think this correction is going to be over within a day or so, if not already.

    As for why the DOW is acting differently lately, it’s skewed more heavily now toward financial stocks, which are out of favor. I don’t think the Dow is as representative of the broader market as it used to be. When financials come back in vogue it will outperform IMO, whenever that is.

  30. bouraq says:

    Little dent on the rally:

  31. mjtplayer says:

    The S&P put in a “hanging man” on the daily OHLC bar

  32. tkuz says:

    Thank you tony and the rest that share so freely on this great blog. My little girls college fund hit a 200% return today for the past year thanks solely to you all. Special shout out to all that make this a great place to learn
    Tony C your kindness inspires others to be better people
    bouraq love your charts, great call on coffee
    fiona thx for sharing your analysis, highly respect your stock calls when you share them
    CN love the big ups and big downs, enjoy even more when you share how you got to them
    racing squirrel your analysis is unbelievable, hope to see it more
    art of chart continually adding new sectors to analyze
    Tore, M1, soul, RC and lately maria have all made this a great place for me to learn
    Lee … well lee you make me laugh, usually on days the market humbles me the most!
    Thanks to all, been reading for over 2 years now and am finally seeing consistent results in my system. Hope to be the one sharing at some point in the future and not just learning!

  33. llerias7 says:

    Tanks, T.
    We are discussing an eventual 1% drop still…but 1834 got close…so I bet this minor 2 ended, to.

  34. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    I pick the bullish count.😉

    • simpleiam says:

      Good choice gto!
      If Futures hold up, looks like a solid up day tomorrow; typical Turnaround-Tuesday.
      XIV should do well. Not sure what I’ll be doing w/ES tomorrow.
      GL All! Simplify!

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