SHORT TERM: another wild day, DOW +49
Overnight the Asian markets finished mixed. European markets opened higher and gained 0.5%. US index futures were lower overnight, and at 8:30 Q4 GDP was reported lower: +2.4% v +3.2%. The market opened one point above yesterday’s SPX 1854 close and continued to rally. At 9:45 the Chicago PMI was reported higher: 59.8 v 59.6, at 9:55 Consumer confidence was reported higher: 81.6 v 81.2, and at 10am Pending home sales were reported higher: +0.1% v -8.7%. At 11am FED governor Stein’s speech was released: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/stein20140228a.htm. The market continued to rally, hitting SPX 1868 by 1:30, then it started to pullback. Just past 3:00 the market completely retraced today’s rally, turned negative, and hit SPX 1848. Then it rallied into the close ending the week at SPX 1859.
For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.30%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.20%. Bonds lost 6 ticks, Crude added 5 cents, Gold slipped $6, and the USD was lower. Today the WLEI was reported lower: 51.7% v 52.5%. Medium term support remains at the 1841 and 1828 pivots, with resistance at the 1869 and 1884 pivots.
Wild day. The market broke through SPX 1859 in the first few minutes of trading and rallied to 1868, near the 1869 pivot. Then in less than two hours it dropped 20 points to SPX 1848. After the it reversed again to end the week at SPX 1859. It has been that kind of week. Early this morning we posted the more bullish count, noted yesterday, on the breakout. Will review this weeks’ short term whipsaw action during the weekend report.
Short term support goes back to SPX 1851 and the 1841 pivot, with resistance at SPX 1859 and the 1869 pivot. Short term momentum hit extremely overbought during the rally, then dropped below neutral. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the reversal level now SPX 1852. Best to your weekend!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bull market