friday update

SHORT TERM: another wild day, DOW +49

Overnight the Asian markets finished mixed. European markets opened higher and gained 0.5%. US index futures were lower overnight, and at 8:30 Q4 GDP was reported lower: +2.4% v +3.2%. The market opened one point above yesterday’s SPX 1854 close and continued to rally. At 9:45 the Chicago PMI was reported higher: 59.8 v 59.6, at 9:55 Consumer confidence was reported higher: 81.6 v 81.2, and at 10am Pending home sales were reported higher: +0.1% v -8.7%. At 11am FED governor Stein’s speech was released: The market continued to rally, hitting SPX 1868 by 1:30, then it started to pullback. Just past 3:00 the market completely retraced today’s rally, turned negative, and hit SPX 1848. Then it rallied into the close ending the week at SPX 1859.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.30%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.20%. Bonds lost 6 ticks, Crude added 5 cents, Gold slipped $6, and the USD was lower. Today the WLEI was reported lower: 51.7% v 52.5%. Medium term support remains at the 1841 and 1828 pivots, with resistance at the 1869 and 1884 pivots.

Wild day. The market broke through SPX 1859 in the first few minutes of trading and rallied to 1868, near the 1869 pivot. Then in less than two hours it dropped 20 points to SPX 1848. After the it reversed again to end the week at SPX 1859. It has been that kind of week. Early this morning we posted the more bullish count, noted yesterday, on the breakout. Will review this weeks’ short term whipsaw action during the weekend report.

Short term support goes back to SPX 1851 and the 1841 pivot, with resistance at SPX 1859 and the 1869 pivot. Short term momentum hit extremely overbought during the rally, then dropped below neutral. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the reversal level now SPX 1852. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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22 Responses to friday update

  1. llerias7 says:

    SPX 1hr Chart MACD bullish cross…up and away now…

  2. lunker1 says:

    So that wave from 1738 might top at 1869 pivot and maybe w2 down to 1790/1800 what a bunch of bull that is.

    My boy got his first RBI and loves to play catcher. Looks real pro style at it too. Minivan to MCO. Disney weekend. Bueno weather. Enjoy 😀

  3. paul_in_aus says:

    Hi Tony,

    Could the action from your recent wave iv be an ending diagonal into a minor wave 1 today?

  4. Anonymous says:


    The SPX seems to have the big money taking profits here. Might get some down next week. But great update tony Thanks mate. 🙂

    • budfox9450 says:

      Only one problem, I can see from that SP
      chart. The Potential prog price high is well
      above, and outside the up channel.
      Since the Price has respected the Blue channel
      since pre 2011. I am , thus missing the logic.
      1948, outside the envelope, so to speak. Not,
      sure that will work….Bud

  5. Jennifer says:

    Thanks Tony, and a great weekend everyone!

    S&P 500 closes at record high below today’s high on Ukraine concerns:

  6. simpleiam says:

    A WUNDERBAR day for Beginner ES trader schmucks like me! So Tony thinks the entire trend might last a total of 4 months; what GREAT news for middle / working class folk who are brave or savvy enough to go for it! Us little people (speaking for myself) need to step up and take advantage of this great Bull while it’s kicking. My review of the big drop today is a common one. Nobody wants to be holding what they perceive as risky positions over the weekend, with media adding further hype to the Crimean troubles. There’s a positive aspect to this: How many kids do you know who even had an inkling what or where Crimea is?! Huh? None of the kids in my neighborhood knew a thing about it, so we just had a little geography lesson a few minutes ago, using my grandmother’s old globe, circa 1933. Hey, education comes in many ways. GL to All and have a great weekend. Those of you with snow, we’re sunny and in the 60’s this afternoon & BBQ is ready to sizzle. SIMPLE things in life are great. Add monetary profits to that equation, then, they are BEST! (That’s for the pooch.)

  7. Hi Tony, something is bothering me about the current Int iii. In both price and time it’s so much shorter than Int i. I know it does not have to be longer but this is a big difference. It’s still not complete I know, but something doesn’t feel right about it. Perhaps it’s all just a minor 1 of int iii unfolding this month? Int i was 4.5 months in duration so this just doesn’t feel right.

    Have a nice weekend!

  8. mjtplayer says:

    Nice stick save by the bulls in the last hour of trading, end of week/month helps, nice .618 tracement on all indicies from the intraday drop.

    Next week should be interesting, 5yr anniversay of the bull market too!

    • I’ve been expecting the Dow to take the lead away from the NDX as this move reaches it’s later stages. Perhaps that began today? Nasdaq has been leading in both price and time as far as reversals go, so perhaps it will signal the way. Small caps too. Dow may top a week or two after the others. SPX probably more in line with the Dow. Have a nice weekend!

    • 777daimon says:

      ”Next week should be interesting, 5yr anniversay of the bull market too!”
      A thing to be remembered!

  9. JK1987 says:

    Tony Thanks
    Is this the count?
    3-iii-3 up underway.
    I covered at 1853 with slightly profit, switch to long.

  10. waddaguess says:

    Could be.

    1788(1)-1776(2)-1826(3)-1809(4)- then 1847 (a), 1825(b), 1858 (c), 1840 (d), 1867 (e) for minor 1

    Wave 3 is slightly longer than 1. 5th the longest. MACD peaked on (3). Minor 2 would see 1803-1788.

  11. Market indeed made a higher-high, as predicted yesterday on the hourly MACD.

    Now we are close to the end of this uptrend on the hourly chart that started in the beginning of February

    Counted this as one wave up and expecting either to roll over down or at least have a pool back here

    Have a great weekend!

  12. thanks tony! nice day for bulls and bears alike 😉 yesterday’s bullish close certainly had follow through today and one can nicely count 5 waves up from yesterday’s 1841.13 low, followed by 3 waves down into today’s low (also a nice retest and bounce off the 1841 pivot). Therefore seems to me, applying your count, with the minor 1, 2 and minute i, ii, that the market is setting up a bunch of nested 1-2s, now likely at the nano level!?, which are needed for the end of this wave for iv’s and v’s and 4s and 5s. etc

    • 777daimon says:

      Soul ,

      Can you please obtain more details from your girlfriend from Ukraine? You (through her) are the most reliable info source.
      According to Reuters on Saturday morning russians deployed 6000 more soldiers in southern Ukraine in a full-blown millitary invasion.
      Those russians are crazy !

      • 777 – The deployment of these troops is right in the city where she’s from (Simferopol)… However, these troops don’t carry any identification (e.g. country flags are not on the right arm patches, vehicles have no number plates, etc) so nobody really knows who’s troops these are.

        Journalists think “they look Russian”, but all people over there look Russian, except for a few ethnics (like the tartars)…

        Remember that the Krim and Sebastepol are key strategically places for the Russian Navy. It is the closest and direct access/link to the Mediterranean. It has a natural subterranean submarine base, etc The next closest port is Sochi (where the Olympics were held), but ships there have to go through canals first ect, so one can imagine the Russians are very keen on keeping it. In addition, Sebastepol is somewhat like Gibraltar in Spain, which is British. As far as I understand the Russians “lease” it, whatever that legally means.

        Because of the Russian Navy, many people in that area are of course employed/linked to it, and a rather looking more eastward then westward so to say.

        So far, it’s relatively quiet with no casualties. Let’s hope it stays that way.

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