thursday update

SHORT TERM: another Yellen rally, DOW +74

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.5%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.2%. US index futures were lower overnight but rallied after the economic reports at 8:30: weekly Jobless claims higher: 348k v 336k, and Durable goods orders lower: -1.0% v -4.2%. The market opened two points below yesterday’s SPX 1845 close, continued higher to 1847, then pulled back to yesterday’s 1841 low by around 10am. At 10am FED chair Yellen began her Senate testimony. The market began to rally and reached SPX 1855 by 1:30. After a pullback to SPX 1850 by 3:30, the market spiked in the last few minutes to close at 1854.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.50%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.60%. Bonds gained 7 ticks, Crude slipped 30 cents, Gold added $1, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1841 and 1828 pivots, with resistance at the 1869 and 1884 pivots. Tomorrow: Q4 GDP at 8:30; then the Chicago PMI, Consumer sentiment and Pending home sales all around 10am. Also at 10am FED governor Stein has a panel discussion in NYC.

The market traded much lower overnight but opened just two points lower and then rallied, after a retest of yesterday’s low, for the rest of the day. With all the choppy action of late we posted a potential a-b-c pattern from last Thursday’s SPX 1825 low. This could also be counted as a 1-2-1-2 pattern from that low, as the b wave up was three waves: 1846-1836-1859. Should the market clear SPX 1859 this is probably the right count. If not, the a-b-c count will probably unfold. The NAZ, which may be leading, broke out of its choppy pattern to the upside today.

Short term support is at SPX 1851 and the 1841 pivot, with resistance at SPX 1859 and the 1869 pivot. Short term momentum put in a positive divergence at today’s low, and hit overbought during the day. The short term OEW charts turned positive with the reversal level now SPX 1847. Best to your GDP trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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146 Responses to thursday update

  1. Lee says:

    They really honked the nas 100 , just the bots playing in the 3 of 3 up or something else?
    thanks and good day sir

    PS I’m buying drinks at the local dive


  2. In an irregular flat, the B-wave typically extends the A-wave drop by factor 1,15.
    The A-wave drop from 1851-1738 was 113 points. This calculation gives us a B-wave top at 1868, which seems quite accurate.
    The C-wave should then find bottom at around 1720.


    • perversionofthemean says:

      Is the collective thinking now that we’re actually in a large B after all, with C back to 1720?

      Per many here, I thought they were looking for a 3 of 3 up (a gap-and-run day).

      If this is in fact a key-reversal day, what level break is required to suggest that we just finished a c of B up, and are embarking on a of C down?


      • simpleiam says:

        potm, I’m not convinced that the 3 of 3 count is correct. Not saying it’s wrong, but only giving it 50%, along with 50% for 5th wave. I’ll let markets make up my mind for me. GL!


    • bhtrade says:

      C wave theory null and void imo


  3. Sorry for the 4th psot, but this is last..Something else is happening…If war was anticipated and this market was falling then gold should have gone up..but gold is not going up..there is something else, it seems for this fall…


  4. fractepper says:

    kkandru12 said:February 27, 2014 at 11:04 pm
    “I’m big time short and extremely confident of it.”

    Thanks & Congrats!! (..and can you share what made you so confident last night?)


  5. Lee says:

    SPX EMA 34 @ 1851.63 on the 60 minute just got tickled.


  6. JK1987 says:

    Covered at 1853 with slightly profit, switch to long with 1-2-1-2


  7. buddyglove says:

    Hello Mr Bear……..How nice of you to drop by.


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