tuesday update

SHORT TERM: choppy day, DOW -27

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.4%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.2%. US index futures were lower overnight. At 9am Case-Shiller was reported higher: +13.4% v +13.7%, and the FAHA housing index was reported higher: +0.8% v +0.1%. The market opened two points above yesterday’s SPX 1848 close but immediately started to pullback. At 10am Consumer confidence was reported lower: 78.1 v 80.7, and FED governor Tarullo’s speech was released: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/tarullo20140225a.htm/. The market had also pulled back to SPX 1840 by 10am, and then started to rally. At 11:30 the market cleared its previous ATH at SPX 1851, hitting 1853, but then started to pullback again. At 2pm: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/bcreg/20140225a.htm. This second pullback hit SPX 1842 around 3:30, then the market bounced into a 1845 close.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.15%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.15%. Bonds gained 12 ticks, Crude slid 85 cents, Gold added $3, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1841 and 1828 pivots, with resistance at the 1869 and 1884 pivots. Tomorrow: New home sales at 10am.

The market opened slightly higher today, then resumed yesterday’s afternoon selling. The decline from the noon all time high at SPX 1859 yesterday declined to 1840 by 10am. This decline overlapped the previous rally: SPX 1836-1846. Then after a rally to SPX 1853 by 11:30 today, another pullback followed to SPX 1842. Our nice clean rally from SPX 1738 has now turned quite choppy, and the impulsive pattern is getting quite sloppy. The OEW 1841 pivot range has become a magnet again. The last time the market entered its range, late-December, the SPX vacillated around it for more than three weeks before heading into a correction. This time around, the market has already spent over a week vacillating it. May need a gap up opening to finally clear the pivot and regain upside momentum.

Short term support is at the 1841 and 1828 pivots, with resistance at SPX 1851 and now SPX 1859. Short term momentum hit oversold early today, then spent the rest of the day below neutral. The short term OEW charts turned negative, then positive, and the reversal level is now SPX 1843. Best to your trading this choppy market.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend probable

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS:  http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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141 Responses to tuesday update

  1. blackjak100 says:

    Maria Castro, I got stopped out of gold but did reshort at $1340 yesterday. So far, it looks like a wise move. Where do you see gold heading for retracement in March?

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    • Maria Castro says:

      Hey Blackjack,

      Good move on your part. Gold got to 1345 overnight and that could be good enough for this run. The warning for me was the miners and it’s tired action. I’m completely out as of yesterday morning(long position). Anyway, there is a small possibility that Gold could actually make a higher high(1350ish)to create neg div on the daily chart. So I’ll be looking for that over the next few days. If it can’t do this within a few days then it’s down from here. Ok depending on where the final print of the top is, there should be at least a %.382 fib re-trace from 1181.40 low. Of course a move down to the 50ma would make sense here. I’m looking for a down move to complete around the low 1280ish range for this decline and could get a spike down to 1250. In ew terms that would complete w4, with w5 starting mid-March and ending around late April-Early May.

      Stick with your short and have a mental stop. Then load the boat in March.

      Good luck

      Cheers,

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  2. waddaguess says:

    Looks like an ending pattern in ES, diagonal. Would explain the chop. Spx not so much. Flip a coin.

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  3. JK1987 says:

    Second day with chop city 1840 – 1852, feel like some kind of b wave.

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  4. -4 under TL into 10 AM and big ole pop, set ur clocks till it stops working rest of the day is urs. :mrgreen:

    Lee, topstep/pitbull passionate dudes/ I have learned so much from them. I guess I’m not a fan of anybody selling anything about the markets.

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    • 10 handles, BTW, today’s set up brings stats to 22:22. How big would you trade?

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    • Lee says:

      H D

      These guys sell a service that caters to people who want to feel like they’re getting the inside scoop from the “pros” that only a few have access too.
      Now I would think almost everybody knows now that all of the info supplied is easily obtained on the interwebby thing whether it be from ur paid or free services, the only advantage to being on the floor is you get to eat lunch everyday at some amazing places scattered around in Chicago’s Loop and u don’t have to be at home with the wife or husband, trust me folks.

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      • great point Lee I agree

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      • H D says:

        $350/month for their chat room. Good thing All Gore invented the web. You can find it all for free.

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      • simpleiam says:

        Ok HD, you and Lee have obviously been baiting me, so I’ll bite. The New Member Introductory offer is not $350 for everyone. As a Beginner, I need a bit more help than you sharp, all-knowing guys, so just lay off. I’m not doing anything to insult you in any way. Danny is a supporter of Lyme Disease charities and is my friend of mine. Leave it alone, okay. Thanks!

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      • H D says:

        M, I have said nothing negative about Danny. Only the closing imbalance. Relax.

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      • simpleiam says:

        HD, you’re giving incorrect info about the chat room. Not everyone pays the same price. You’re the one that seems to need to relax. Whatever… I’ll go elsewhere, for now. Toodles.

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      • CygnetNoir says:

        Just another “WTF” moment here at Tony’s lol … thanks for watching 🙂

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      • uncle10 says:

        there are 1000’s of paid services– some good some bad. Only a few ( that I know of) that are both good and free. Thanks again to Tony and others here for a great place—- for free!!! 😉 btw- EBAY looks to be breaking out of a LONG base. GL to us all. hahaha

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      • 16golfer says:

        Hot – Cold……Simple or whatever the flavor of the moment happens to be.

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      • lunker1 says:

        MKM,
        Wow everything doesn’t revolve around you hun. Racing Squirrel’s post mentioned the MIM and then Lee commented because he knows Danny from Chicago days. And if you look at HD’s twitter you can see he’s followed and studied TopStep for a long time. Take a step back from the keyboard and breathe easy….this entire topic wasn’t related to you one bit.

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      • simpleiam says:

        LOL! Get over it guys. I am.

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  5. Don’t short a dull market

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  6. oneandonlyuniverse says:

    Morning Tony,
    Gdx has moved 20.18 to 26.95. IF 26.95 was top of A wave, what type of retracement of this bear market rally would you typically expect before moving higher?
    Namaste

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  7. 777daimon says:

    and now my last for today 5th message (sorry for being rude regarding your max.3 posts/day here, Tony …. I don’t intend to be rude, I just feel like communicating a lot) here, today:

    Check a) and b) where:
    a. the 1.27 Fibo extension from the year 1994 low
    b. the value reached by the US cash market on February 24, 12.00 EST (US time)
    … now think. It’s the same value, up to the last decimal.
    Can you understand what I’m saying?

    Like

  8. Hi Tony!
    Thanks for the update.
    I am looking at the Dow Transport chart. Maybe this chart can be of some help.
    In the DJ transports we have a nice 5 wave structure down from the top. Then follows a 3 wave advance forming a 0,62 retrace B wave. This B wave have now lost upward momentum as shown by yesterdays shooting star and todays bearish engulfing candle.
    The index thus show clear signs of entering a downward C-wave move from this point.

    Best wishes Sverker

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  9. CygnetNoir says:

    Hey Uncle … nice call on CPST, by the way.

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