SHORT TERM: choppy day, DOW -27
Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.4%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.2%. US index futures were lower overnight. At 9am Case-Shiller was reported higher: +13.4% v +13.7%, and the FAHA housing index was reported higher: +0.8% v +0.1%. The market opened two points above yesterday’s SPX 1848 close but immediately started to pullback. At 10am Consumer confidence was reported lower: 78.1 v 80.7, and FED governor Tarullo’s speech was released: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/tarullo20140225a.htm/. The market had also pulled back to SPX 1840 by 10am, and then started to rally. At 11:30 the market cleared its previous ATH at SPX 1851, hitting 1853, but then started to pullback again. At 2pm: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/bcreg/20140225a.htm. This second pullback hit SPX 1842 around 3:30, then the market bounced into a 1845 close.
For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.15%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.15%. Bonds gained 12 ticks, Crude slid 85 cents, Gold added $3, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1841 and 1828 pivots, with resistance at the 1869 and 1884 pivots. Tomorrow: New home sales at 10am.
The market opened slightly higher today, then resumed yesterday’s afternoon selling. The decline from the noon all time high at SPX 1859 yesterday declined to 1840 by 10am. This decline overlapped the previous rally: SPX 1836-1846. Then after a rally to SPX 1853 by 11:30 today, another pullback followed to SPX 1842. Our nice clean rally from SPX 1738 has now turned quite choppy, and the impulsive pattern is getting quite sloppy. The OEW 1841 pivot range has become a magnet again. The last time the market entered its range, late-December, the SPX vacillated around it for more than three weeks before heading into a correction. This time around, the market has already spent over a week vacillating it. May need a gap up opening to finally clear the pivot and regain upside momentum.
Short term support is at the 1841 and 1828 pivots, with resistance at SPX 1851 and now SPX 1859. Short term momentum hit oversold early today, then spent the rest of the day below neutral. The short term OEW charts turned negative, then positive, and the reversal level is now SPX 1843. Best to your trading this choppy market.
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend probable
LONG TERM: bull market
the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on 
So we are in minor 2 (?a-b-c) of Int.III of major 5 of P3. Good to know…
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Thanks for updated chart Tony. Interesting count.
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JK was complaining 😉
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Thanks. Not complaining. Just want to see what’s going on from 1738 to 1859. Most people are wondering and confused and want to see our master Tony’s labels.
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Yes I know =)
We were kicking around several counts and just discussing them in the updates with no labels.
Two, in particular, look more obvious than the others at this point
The SPX and the DOW counts
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We are on the same page as of b wave, I can read your mind. 🙂
I did say “Second day with chop city 1840 – 1852, feel like some kind of b wave”.
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http://www.amateur-investor.net/AII_Daily_Report_Feb_25_2014.htm
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…more optimistic!
Thanks Tony.
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Will this be the 4th day failure of breaking 1850 into close.Not looikng too promishing anymore.
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Yo pooch. You get ‘the-understatement-of-the-day’ award! Nice ride down, OMG! See ya’s…
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Cha ching! Oh, and my cakes are almost ready…
GL Everyone!
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I drink Decaf
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Why?
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Whoa. Vix ETN’s look to be loading for a drop soon. Could sell off as fast as they load though, so be careful.
Simplify.
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Just a hunch, but think Spx might be going to the 1820’s, or lower. Bye!
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SPX has tweezer tops 1852.65 today and reaks like a triangle. an E wave would bring it back to pivot, cheap short against HOD. Just an idea.
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That’s my take also HD…
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Thanks HD.
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thx for the back up fellas, should b +3.5 trail and trim… and have a great eve all.
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Nice call, HD!
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H D
That’s some mighty fine timing young man.
I’m over the limit and thru the woods, thanks for sharing guys and gl to robnaardin also eh ?
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HD 23:23 kudos!
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Nice!! and free too…… 😉 thx HD.
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Thanks Lee
Yes I am from the land of the eh-hole.
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HD’s the man – should be allowed 3 added posts per great call!
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When I’m bored, sometimes what I do is I find a stock that is near its break out level. And then, when it breaks out, I DON’T buy it. But then I watch it go up all day long without me. At each pause I consider buying the next new high, if it in fact makes one, but then I remeber my discipline, and again I DON’T buy the next new high! The stock then continues higher without me. Then, when I can’t stand it no more, I buy 2000 shares at the market, just as the stock likely has ticked its top for the day.
You should try it sometime … lots of fun 😉
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Been there…done that CN! I call it the 16golfer indicator. :-))
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LOL did that the past 2 months with TSLA, CRM, REGN, BIDU, QCOR, YY, VIPS, P, MTH, QIHU, OHRP. I’m telling myself that I was “studying” the charts to watch and learn. 😦
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VIPS was the “Gotcha!” today for me – written in my tablet from last night “Buy VIPS $115 on Stop, sell $122 limit.”
Well, I did something at $122, but it was not selling the longs I did NOT take at $115. You would think after all this time I would not do that anymore … but about once every quarter I seem to decide I need to pay the market another $3000 is “continuing education tuition.”
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funny thing is when you miss a great trade you think there will never be another one so then you press a make a bad one instead lol.
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Even more fun but worst is,
I bought tsla at $128, sold at $200.
Shorted at $195, stopped out at $210.
And the watch it to continue to make new high to $265 without me.
Kicking myself for not letting the profits run and had a loss on the second trade!
Morgan Stanley has increased its price target on Tesla from $153 to $320. That’s more than twice what it was before.
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It’s the weather CN. Need to get out on the golf course to give yourself time to clear your mind. Come back a new person/trader. 🙂
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“THEY” know who you are so they run until you go away.
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There is no “They,” RDC. Trading is a “Me vs Me” game if ever there was one.
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Been there done it no fun
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Looks like everybody had a big smile on there face from identifying with that one! So much for our self discipline! Thanks for the humility check CN.
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a very technical mess to run the stops in both directions. yesterday afternoon had an ED that broke out at before end of session. SPX retraced .877 of that ED this AM and then sharply backtested the ED at 1843 in a “race to the dance” with a nearly vertical down line 3rd touch of yesterdays support TL. the pre 10AM hi and low were the D and E wave of a pennant that started yesterday AM at 1840. http://thepatternsite.com/pennants.html actually there was a pennant within a pennant. a larger one started Monday. SPX broke out above the smaller pennant at about 10:25 and then came back to backtest it twice 1849 and 1848. since today’s high the pattern is either a bull flag or a Right-Angled and Descending Broadening Formation. http://thepatternsite.com/rabfd.html the pennant might get a third touch at 1847/48.
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the larger pennant measures 23. backtest at 1848 + 23 = 1871
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Yikes, the fellow didn’t mince words about the pattern. He doesn’t like it at all!
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Sorry to repeat myself but is the Healthcare-XLV in a major 3 up?
Certainly the sector is in the tear nowdays…
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updated
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Anybody see this ? Ending diagonal in an expanding triangle/”megaphone” pattern
Next CIT–change in trend due_____
http://screencast.com/t/cty2zvCBbl
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Yes I see it .. What is it? 🙂
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Still waiting for the spx megaphone to appear.
Short @ 1852
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what if it breaks to the upside?
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Any thoughts on a count on this? Is this the e?
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it’s wave 3 here dear.
already rolling to the upside!
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thanks. it crawled under the top line for a while. Worth watching
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