monday update

SHORT TERM: SPX all time high, DOW +106

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.2%. Europe opened lower but gained 0.6%. US index futures were higher overnight, and the market opened four points above Friday’s SPX 1836 close. Right at the start the market started to rally. By 10am the SPX had already made an all time high by one point. By noon the SPX hit 1859 and then started to pullback. At 1:30 the FED: issued this. The pullback continued throughout the afternoon until the market closed at SPX 1848.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.65%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.65%. Bonds lost 4 ticks, Crude rose 40 cents, Gold rallied $14, and the USD was lower. Medium term support rises to the 1841 and 1828 pivots, with resistance at the 1869 and 1884 pivots. Tomorrow: Case-Shiller and the FHFA housing index at 9am, then Consumer confidence and a speech from FED governor Tarullo at 10am.

The market opened higher today and just kept on rallying, with only one three point pullback, right to an all time high at SPX 1859. The NDX/NAZ both made new bull market highs, but the DOW was still about 300 points shy of a new high. As a result of today’s action we dropped the Minor a labeling on the SPX in favor of the Int. wave ii low at 1738. The DOW charts will maintain both labels until it gets into gear and joins the rest of the market, or rolls over and takes the market with it.

Shorter term we still count five waves from SPX 1738-1848, then a pullback to 1825, now four waves: 1846-1836-1859-1848 so far. This second set of waves could be the second set of five waves within Minor 1. Or, the early stages of Minor 3 with SPX 1825 as Minor 2. Short term support is at the 1841 and 1828 pivots, with resistance at SPX 1851 and the 1869 pivot. Short term momentum hit quite overbought before the afternoon pullback to below neutral. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the reversal level now SPX 1842. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend probable

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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76 Responses to monday update

  1. Lee says:

    Show em who’s boss !
    Thanks for all the counts gents bull and bear


    • simpleiam says:

      jobjas, I don’t know if P3 is complete or not, but get the distinctn impression that this uptrend is in danger. Knowing my luck, it’ll probably go way up tomorrow & continue upward.



    • perversionofthemean says:

      I think you’re the only one sticking with the idea that P3 is done. Maybe that is telling in and of itself?
      I’m too new to EW analysis to have much of a clue. I have to rely on other clues:
      1) It’s tough for me to envision how Investor’s Intelligence readings could get to 60%+ bulls and 14% bears around New Year’s, and move to 40% bulls and 15% bears during the Jan decline, but never recycle back to a traditional spread under 10% (and preferably negative).

      2) Could be just a coincidence, but the trend channel on the Dow from the ’29 peak to the ’66 peak, and extends to become the support that halts the ’87 crash, has the exact same slope as the one from the ’00 to ’07 to ’14 highs. The Dow has yet to close above this parallel channel line. (semi-log)

      3) How can you tell that a failed 5th isn’t a failed 5th after all, but instead is really the b-wave of the A wave of a new ABC down following an upward ABC you thought was a 5-wave impulse? (Asking based on the chart you posted.)

      4) Tony’s monthly SPX shows that the last P III we had was from ’82-’00, roughly 18 years. To me, it seems that the top of P III should be a dozen-plus years from now. In fact, if you look at Tony’s monthly SPX, the rally from the P II low in ’82 to the M3 ’87 high was just 3 major waves, and even a greater percentage than our bull since ’09. Respectfully, can you help understand why the waves then were major, and now they’re primary?
      As usual, thank you!


      • tony caldaro says:

        Cycle [1]’s last about five years, and Cycles [3] and [5] last about 30 years.
        Cycle [5]: 1976-1982-2000-2002-2007 these were the Primary waves.


      • jobjas says:

        The reason we label charts is to make some sense to seemingly random price movement that is the scart to an untrained eye.more importantly it is to make money in the market irrespective of the wave terminology we use. My count is different from Tony’s (see my first chart of Feb 19) .Immaterial of that there is across the board agreement that major 4 (or some significant wave 4) ended at 1610ES. From that point I projected wave 5 as 61.8 % to get 1852 . I have a 5 wave completed at 1858. One should exit once one complete a 5 wave move. since I believe this is end of P3 I expect a 200 point drop and therefore I am short.


  2. 777daimon says:

    dirty ending diagonale pointing down on 5 min chart spx 500 …in it’s final 5th wave LOL


  3. waddaguess says:

    1826-1810-1847-1825-1859 is what it looks like from 1743. There is overlap in SPX none in NYA.


  4. bobhopium says:

    Hi All…For my own trading purposes, here is how i am looking at Dow…maybe of use to others.
    Possibly one more slightly higher high (50% prob @16330/60) but looking for a swing below 15600. As always will monitor and adjust…GL to everyone.
    DOW-daily continuous :-


  5. lunker1 says:

    wondering if everything since Feb 19 is a 335 running flat. the C=A target would be 1836. might try to pierce the 1835.60 low to run the stops before reversing upward.


  6. lunker1 says:

    reached C=A target down from 1853 high today and also the .618 retrace from today’s lo to hi


  7. uncle10 says:

    Afternoon all. Got my hand on the trigger to buy some Vol and short the market. GL to us all. 😉 lol


  8. tommyboys says:

    Here’s a good reminder for those fearing taper that markets rise. fall and go sideways during rising rate periods…


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