friday update

SHORT TERM: choppy Opex day, DOW -30

Overnight the Asian markets gained 1.5%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.5%. US index futures were higher overnight, and the market opened two points above yesterday’s SPX 1840 close. After a dip to SPX 1839 in the opening minutes the market bounced to 1845 by 10am. At 10am Existing home sales were reported lower: 4.62m v 4.87m. The market then dipped to SPX 1840 by 10:30, and then began to rally. At 11am the SPX hit 1846, and another pullback followed. At 2pm the FED released the following: The pullback continued until 2:30 when the SPX hit 1837. The market then rose to SPX 1842 by 3:30, but again pulled back into a 1836 close.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.20%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.20%. Bonds gained 4 ticks, Crude slipped 50 cents, Gold was flat, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1828 and 1779 pivots, with resistance at the 1841 and 1869 pivots. Last night the FED reported an increase in the Monetary base: $3.883tn v $3.789tn. Today the WLEI was reported lower again: 52.5% v 53.2%.

The market opened higher today, made a new rally high at SPX 1846, then pulled back for the rest of the day. Today’s high and pullback now creates a bit of a more complex wave structure from the SPX 1738 low. We now have the five waves up 1848, a decline to 1825, then 1846-1836 so far. Nevertheless it all still looks impulsive. This and more will be discussed in the weekend update.

Short term support is at the 1828 pivot and SPX 1814, with resistance at the 1841 pivot and SPX 1851. Short term momentum declined to slightly oversold after hitting overbought earlier today. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the reversal level now SPX 1835. Best to your weekend.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend probable

LONG TEM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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22 Responses to friday update

  1. fionamargaret says:

    Really interesting update Tony – thank you.
    Thanks also to the contributors – xxx.


  2. CygnetNoir says:

    Sorry, Lee

    CygnetNoir says:
    February 21, 2014 at 7:38 pm
    sorry ’bout that Lee. I was trying to make a point about those who like to point out other’s losers – I have no blog/service of my own to promote. I’m a civilian 🙂


  3. lunker1 says:

    SPX and INDU closed right at the 60min 34EMAs


  4. Jennifer says:

    Great weekend everyone!

    U.S. stocks dropped on disappointing data on home sales


  5. Lee says:

    Thanks Tony

    Here comes my bi weekly rhetorical question to the blog
    What’s with people these days ? All ways repeating the same positions/opinions on blogs like we didn’t see it the 1 st and 2nd time they posted it…that day
    Back in the day we counted our profits in a dark corner of the floor or a break room table with our elbows out just to let people know, keep moving you mooch !
    If I offended anyone ,hey Fuggedaboutit. :>)


  6. SPX and NYA have confirmed a short time frame wave down (10min).

    The hourly charts are undecided as to whether we are headed next up or down. The MACD Histogram is negative and the MACD it self made a lower high concurrent with a lower high on $SPX. This means that the 5th subwave of the last upwards thrust was in fact the high of the Feb 19 (that is where the divergence showed up and where this wave ended). We need a close below 1825 to continue lower, or a close above 1845 to go higher.

    The daily charts are undecided.

    The weekly charts are looking up, but there is a head-and-shoulders configuration on the DOW – need a close below 15,250 to confirm down, or above 16,250 for up.

    I am holding a short on SPX with a STOP at the recent all time highs (contrarian play) and long the long bond with a STOP at the recent low


    • robnaardin says:

      “We need a close below 1825 to continue lower, or a close above 1845 to go higher.”

      I vote lower. I expect to see the hourly macd to dip below the centerline and a dip below the 89 hour ema to occur before the spx goes higher.


  7. torehund says:

    From gold top have a confirmed ABCDE down/complex ABC down, well how much it will retrace is anybody’s guess, but if its just a retrace, they move fast and don’t like lots of passengers.
    Gold is still a commodity and if world goes crazy and USD tanks maybe it was a wave 4 bottom we just had, hey that would surprise all, even the bugs themselves.
    P Shiff will be all over the place if thats what happens..

    Good weekend and remember Spring is Energy, and not a time to be bull on the USD !


    • torehund says:

      Interesting development in Ukraina, seems like both Russia and EU wanted to team up with them, but Russia gave the most. However if the country wasn’t already corrupt draining resources from the people, they could have chosen what they wanted in the first place, namely to join the EU.
      Governmental corruption and excesses works just fine in good times, but start smelling like a mud pit once adversity hits.
      The human cost will now be exaggerated further and Russia will no longer give them cheap energy, wonder if EU will wish to pay the bill to get them included ?
      Seems like the Arab spring is extending outside its confines, and according to Armstrong this is just the beginning, however until Sept 2015 we should be all fine.
      If his projections are accurate this date should be the time to enter the Greenback or some short instrument of choice.


    • kkandru12 says:

      Watch for 1198 level. It’ll retrace to that level , but takes 7-10 weeks.


  8. waddaguess says:

    Thanks Tony. Interested to hear your thoughts in weekend report.


  9. CygnetNoir says:

    CygnetNoir says:
    February 21, 2014 at 3:17 pm

    Thanks Tony – Great job helping us ride those waves this week!


  10. oneandonlyuniverse says:

    looks like we got -div daily gdx? if so, could u mark it on your charts..thx nice weekend to you


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