SHORT TERM: dip then rally, DOW +93
Overnight the Asian markets lost 1.4%. Europe opened lower but finished mixed. US index futures were lower, then higher overnight. At 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported lower: 336k v 339k, and the CPI was reported higher: +0.1% v +0.3%. The market opened three points above yesterday’s SPX 1829 close. Then it ticked up to SPX 1833 before heading to a lower low at 1825 by 10am. At 10am the Philly FED was reported lower: -6.3 v 9.4, but Leading indicators were reported higher: +0.3% v +01%. Then the market started to rally. Heading into the close the SPX hit 1843, with only a 4 point pullback along the way. Then a late dip ended the session at SPX 1840.
For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.60%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.60%. Bonds lost 7 ticks, Crude ended flat, Gold rallied $13, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1828 and 1779 pivots, with resistance at the 1841 and 1869 pivots. Tomorrow: Existing home sales at 10am, and it is Options expiration Friday.
The market opened higher today, even after some futures selling overnight. Then it dipped two points below yesterday’s SPX 1827 pullback low before entering rally mode for the rest of the day. We now clearly have five waves up from SPX 1738, with either the fifth wave from 1809 extending or the entire rally extending. With today’s rally above the 1841 pivot, as long as the market can hold the +/- 7 point range, it should head towards new highs soon. A break below SPX 1834 would suggest this current advance was a B wave and a slightly lower low (under 1825) should be next. This market continues to track impulsively.
Short term support remains at the 1828 pivot and SPX 1814, with resistance at the 1841 pivot and SPX 1851. Short term momentum has risen from extremely oversold to nearly overbought. The OEW short term charts turned positive again with the rally over 1830, and the reversal level is now SPX 1832. Best to your trading Opex tomorrow!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend probable
LONG TERM: bull market